BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

The second last BludgerTrack reading of the year records very slight movement to Labor, and marginal improvement for both leaders on net approval.

First, Crikey has a seasonal offering this week of 25% off for gift subscriptions. If you’re a subscriber already, you can get $33 off a renewal (and also enjoy my piece today on Rod Culleton’s resignation from One Nation).

Second, I forgot to post the latest BludgerTrack update at the close of business last night, mostly because the result wasn’t very interesting, with only the usual Essential Research to add to the dataset. Labor gains 0.2% on two-party preferred, together with projected seats in Victoria and Queensland. Essential also included its monthly leadership ratings, causing a very slight improvement in both leaders’ net approval ratings. Essential will have one result for the year tomorrow, which will presumably be a wrap for all federal polling in 2016. However, The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly state and demographic breakdowns, along with scattered state results.

bt2019-2016-12-14

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

235 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Get your teeth into this lot! Not unexpectedly there’s quite a lot on MYEFO.

    A young Turkish policeman has shot dead the Russian Ambassador in Ankara. This does not bode well.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/12/19/russian-ambassador-shot-and-killed-in-turkish-capital-of-ankara/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Ross Gittins tells us not to believe anything any politician on either side says about the mid-year budget update and the expected further deterioration in the budget deficit it reveals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/blame-game-hides-real-reason-for-deficit-difficulty-20161219-gtecl6.html
    “The ratings agencies won’t fall for it, and neither should you”, says Peter Martin. He lifts the lid on the trickery within Morrison’s MYEFO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/myefo-you-call-that-a-budget-improvement-the-ratings-agencies-wont-20161219-gtebx5.html
    Laura Tingle writes in a similar vein. Google.
    /news/politics/myefo-helpful-discovery-of-treasury-mistakes-is-the-biggest-feature-of-the-budget-update-20161219-gte3v8
    Jackson Stiles tells us that the government did almost nothing in Monday’s MYEFO to shield workers from a ratings downgrade and the economy’s “downward spiral”, a senior economist has warned.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2016/12/19/myefo-do-nothing/
    This academic finds two big political problems buried within MYEFO.
    https://theconversation.com/there-are-two-big-political-problems-buried-in-the-latest-budget-update-70595
    Michael West says Treasurer Scott Morrison was at it again yesterday, chanting that frayed old mantra that corporate tax cuts “grow the economy” and deliver a “boost to business”.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/tax-cuts-for-banks-and-multinationals-great-idea-not/
    Coalition’s policy ineptitude exposed as MYEFO points to multiple credit downgrades says Stephen Koukoulas. He’s not impressed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/19/coalitions-policy-ineptitude-exposed-as-myefo-points-to-multiple-credit-downgrades
    Rob Burgess asks Morrison for a bit more budget honesty.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2016/12/19/myefo-morrison-honesty/
    Greg Jericho says Morrison’s only hope to save the budget is a wages breakout.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/19/morrison-will-be-hoping-for-a-wages-breakout-it-may-be-the-only-way-to-save-the-budget
    Martin reckons the MYEFO is a bit political as a preparation for the 2017/8 budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/budget-update-bad-news-now-in-the-hope-of-good-news-in-may-20161218-gtdwaj.html

  2. Section 2 . . .

    A rather lacklustre contribution from Michelle Grattan on MYEFO.
    https://theconversation.com/aaa-rating-saved-despite-bigger-deficits-in-budget-update-70587
    Political leaders need to clear the fog obscuring the nation’s economic facts says Shaun Carney. If only the Coalition hadn’t been demonising debt for so long! Google.
    /news/opinion/political-leaders-need-to-clear-the-fog-obscuring-the-nations-economic-facts/news-story/ed4c2bdd5983860ac193e6e398432885
    The political disclosure laws in Australia are a joke. They are opaque, tricky and designed to obscure the link between money and political outcomes writes Steph Peatling. Our political donations disclosure arrangements are a joke.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-could-do-worse-than-starting-2017-by-draining-his-own-swamp-20161219-gtdxej.html
    Kate McClymont on the substantial fall in the share price for Seven Media after it has supported its embattled CEO after his “coke fuelled affair” with an employee.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/sevens-share-price-plummets-after-claims-of-cokefuelled-affair-by-boss-tim-worner-20161219-gteezl.html
    Michaela Whitbourne writes on Eddie Obeid’s non unexpected bid for release on bail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeid-seeks-release-from-prison-before-christmas-20161219-gte06n.html
    And now the IMF’s Christine Lagarde gets criminally charged.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/imf-chief-christine-lagarde-found-guilty-of-negligence-20161219-gteiq3.html
    How our tax system hurts married women.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/sometimes-its-just-better-to-stay-single-how-the-tax-system-hurts-married-women-20161219-gte1rx.html
    Never mind the others in the middle east – it’s Iran and Saudi Arabia that are the rela trouble.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-the-struggle-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia-tore-apart-the-middle-east-20161119-gst94b.html
    Can (and should) the US electoral college refuse to make Trump President?
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/myefo-helpful-discovery-of-treasury-mistakes-is-the-biggest-feature-of-the-budget-update-20161219-gte3v8
    It appears that Victoria has been dudded when it comes to federal infrastructure funding.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-handed-just-77-of-federal-infrastructure-cash-20161219-gteefd.html
    MYEFO has cost savings in it for “welfare compliance” but the IT issues that Centrelink continues to have makes it an unfair one-way street.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/19/fears-centrelink-online-glitch-may-send-welfare-recipients-to-debt-collectors

  3. Section 3 . . .

    Joel Mears writes that the Putin-Trump bromance could send gay rights backward.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-bromance-could-send-gay-rights-backwards-20161219-gtdxvz.html
    Yet more APS pay and conditions deals offers have been voted down. When is it all going to blow up?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/more-public-service-pay-deals-rejected-20161219-gtdyyo.html
    Nick Xenophon has warned the gambling industry that 2017 will not be a good year for them. He has pledged to haul Woolworths and poker machine manufacturers before a Senate committee.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/gaming-industry-blocks-coles-push-for-poker-machine-reform-20161218-gtdsyh.html
    The ugliness of the political relationship breakup between Culleton and Hanson continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rodney-culleton-and-pauline-hansons-war-of-words-continues-following-one-nation-split-20161219-gte6k8.html
    Andrew Street writes that One Nation is doing exactly what it does best – falling messily.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/one-nation-is-doing-exactly-what-it-does-best-messily-falling-apart-20161218-gtdwvj.html
    This is not good news for those who responsibly manage pain with codeine-based painkillers. It is likely they will only be available by way of prescription from 2018. Google.
    /national-affairs/health/painkillers-with-codeine-to-require-scripts-from-2018/news-story/b30c824925e55ed014f0b53c7519ac53
    The IT meltdown at the ATO has had a heavy impact on a couple of thousand casual workers who were sent home as a result.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-letters/stay-or-go-dissatisfied-senators-should-forfeit-seat-20161219-gtdz4y.html
    Peter Martin looks at what the proposed new copyright legislation might mean to us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/copyright-shakeup-what-you-see-and-hear-could-be-about-to-change-20161219-gte3q7.html
    Nicholas Stuart sees that Dutton’s disappointment is a sign that all is not well.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/duttons-disappointment-is-a-sign-that-all-is-well-20161219-gte9ht.html
    Not everyone is a loser in MYEFO!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/midyear-budget-update-mps-to-benefit-from-478m-spend-on-more-staff-offices-and-parking-20161219-gte47m.html
    Here’s one bit of good news for NSW apartment dwellers in the new strata title by-laws – protection from smoke penetration and secondhand smoke.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/apartment-dwellers-can-stamp-out-secondhand-smoke-20161219-gtdyeh.html

  4. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    In the absence of a genuine security threat to scare the punters, just make one up. Ian McAuley takes aim at the latest Turnbull Government scare campaign.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/12/18/the-great-wall-of-malcolm-is-another-chink-in-democracys-armour/
    The future of Bellamy’s chairman Rob Woolley and, potentially, chief executive Laura McBain looks increasingly in doubt as the trading suspension of the Tasmanian organic infant formula ¬company prepares to be lifted ¬tomorrow. Google.
    /business/companies/bellamys-chiefs-in-crosshairs-as-investors-brace-for-bad-news/news-story/220e3250f94d1e2455d9a93327e72bb5

    Cathy Wilcox and the diminished One Nation.

    And Ron Tandberg sees it from another angle.

    More from Cathy Wilcox on how Turnbull draws his inspiration.

    Ron Tandberg and the spotlight not on Abbott.

    David Pope and Santa ScoMo’s budget delivery.

    Mark Knight depicts Morrison as a hapless and angry fast bowler.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ad217292d0205d6af472deaa3ef0cc91?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka nicely sums up Morrison’s MYEFO spiel.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dff251aa145ccc45ad70465aae4d834e

  5. Malcolm compares his Budget with a household budget. These savings are the equivalent of raiding the kiddies’ moneybox or buying a cheaper brand of toilet paper

    We’re meant to think the $20 billion difference is the result of cost-control. But it isn’t. All up, government measures to make up the difference net out to just $2.5 billion. Over four years, that’s a cut in projected spending of 0.13 per cent, barely a rounding error.

    It’s discovered that childcare benefits aren’t being taken up at the rate expected, so it’s lopped $7.6 billion off the amount it expects to pay. It’s discovered that pension payments are growing more slowly than expected, so it’s lopped off another $2.7 billion. The support for carers program is also costing less than expected, so it’s lopped off another $1.9 billion.

    All up these “parameter variations,” colloquially known as “hollow logs”, amount to $12.2 billion. They’re handy for making it look as if you’re doing something to fight collapsing revenue when you’re not doing much.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/myefo-you-call-that-a-budget-improvement-the-ratings-agencies-wont-20161219-gtebx5.html

  6. I understand that the federal government was annoyed that the draft Productivity Commission report on intellectual property was published just a few weeks out from the election. Apparently, it detracted from the message of jobs and growth. But this government claims it’s all about innovation, about agility, about a new economy and entrepreneurship, yet these proposed changes to copyright punish creators, who innovate and are entrepreneurial every day of their lives. They have to be, otherwise they would never get a single thing published or broadcast. Writers and broadcasters were already part of the gig economy well before we were provided with a phrase that covers up exploitation of creative workers.

    …Jackie French, whose books I read to my own kids when they were growing up; and who, among other creations, is also the author of Diary of A Wombat, fears for what will happen to her own work if Australia decides to go down the fair use route. And never mind fair use changes, what happens if the term of copyright moves from 70 years after the death of the author to 15 years after creation.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-innovation-this-government-doesnt-want-20161219-gte2ds.html

  7. Liberals really don’t appreciate Victoria, do they? This is pork barrelling on a huge scale.

    The federal Treasury’s budget update has revealed just $2.05 billion has been set aside for Victorian road, rail and regional projects over the four-year budget period.

    That represents 7.7 per cent of the national total – well below the state’s one-quarter share of the national population. A total of $26.4 billion has been set aside to state infrastructure projects, although about $2.3 billion of that remains unallocated.

    In contrast, the federal government has set aside almost $8 billion for NSW, more than 30 per cent of the national total. Queensland, which is also seen as crucial to the Coalition’s electoral fortunes, will get a 29 per cent slice, while Western Australia will get 12.2 per cent.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-handed-just-77-of-federal-infrastructure-cash-20161219-gteefd.html

  8. Morning bludgers

    Thank you BK for today’s reports.
    Heard Tony Shepard on radio supporting the cutting of entitlements to curb spending whilst giving tax breaks to big business. What a good little elf for the coalition. Sheesh

  9. Lizzie

    You can bet your bottom dollar, that if the coalition were in power in Victoria, they would be getting a bigger share of the pie

  10. Lizzie

    The fibs are doing their best to derail our state govt. They dont care about progress for its citizens, only regaining political power.
    Which by the way, has GG popped up at all?

  11. Morning all. Thanks BK for your comprehensive roundup of the MYEFO coverage. Most commentators have rightly called Morrison’s accounting tricks and hectoring on business tax cuts for the crud that it is.

    Why propose business tax cuts that will not stimulate the economy at a time when tax revenue is the problem? I think Steph Peatling hits the nail on the head with her article about non disclosure of financial links in Canberra. Corporate money flows into Liberal party coffers and so Scott “Double A” Morrison argues for corporate tax cuts, even if they make no economic sense. Who cares about the long term? He has been reelected. No doubt a cushy spot will be found for him if the Oibs are turfed in 2019. Have a good day all.

  12. On this topic of the credit rating of the federal government when spending its own currency, Ross Gittins, Peter Martin, and Greg Jericho are way off the mark, along with almost everyone else. It is completely wrong to claim that the Government of Australia – the issuer of the Australian dollar – could ever involuntarily fail to meet a financial commitment denominated in Australian dollars.

  13. On many economic subjects Ross Gittins, Peter Martin, and Greg Jericho are good value. On the finances of the federal government, they don’t know what they are talking about.

  14. …still waiting for that one example.

    There have been hundreds of civilisations, over thousands of years, all of which printed their own currency. It must have occurred to at least one of them that there was no reason to stop churning out money. By your reasoning, this civilisation would have been an overwhelming success.

    Given those perameters, finding one example of a country which has put into practice the ‘let’s just print more money’ approach to economic problems shouldn’t be difficult for you to find.

    Alternatively, if some mysterious change to the way the world works has made this idea viable now when it wasn’t in the previous few thousand years of recorded history, you should be able to explain what it is (or at least quote Mitchell explaining why it is).

  15. Malcolm compares his Budget with a household budget. These savings are the equivalent of raiding the kiddies’ moneybox or buying a cheaper brand of toilet paper

    Yep, like I said Rome is burning and all this lot can do is faff about at the margins with meaningless stuff.

  16. Good question

    John Harwood
    59m59 minutes ago
    John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
    from conservative columnist @JRubinBlogger: “a legitimate question exists as to whose side

  17. Victoria

    On Twitter, an interview with Trump in which he says the only way to punish terrorists (who don’t care if they die) is to kill their families. Then they will care. I’m not sure of the date.

  18. Lizzie
    My overall view with respect to Trump and what he says. He has always displayed delusions of grandeur. Can you imagine now that he is actually leader of the free world, how he sees himself?! Terrifying doesnt even begin to explain it. My expectation is that should he stray too much from the script, he will be curtailed in a very dramatic way

  19. Painkillers containing codeine, such as Panadeine and Nurofen Plus, will require a prescription from 2018 to help prevent Australians getting addicted to the drug.

    In response to growing concerns about addiction, overdoses and other harm caused by codeine, the Therapeutic Goods Administration has decided to re-schedule the drugs so people cannot buy them over the counter in a pharmacy from February 2018.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/codeine-crackdown-common-painkillers-will-require-prescription-from-2018-20161219-gtekwp.html

  20. Nicholas – You go on endlessly about Australia having a fiat currency. That is obvious. None of those economists contest that. So the government can’t, theoretically default. However, if the govt got so far in debt that it had to print a lot of dollars to pay its debts that would probably spark inflation, so there are constraints (which we are a long way from reaching).

  21. Two examples of governments that did not back their currency are
    The early years of Weimar Germany anf the Confederate states of America. Weimar apparently deliberately to disrupt Versailles. The CSA was interesting in that their currency was issued as promissary notes to be repaid 10 years after the war ended – a sort of Hail Mary approach. 150 years later there are so many still in circulation that they are not even collector’s items. Of course real commerce in the CSAwas done with greenbacks.
    I am still interested in Nicholas’ qualifications and employment – does he have some qualification or experience to back the theory or is it just crackpot opinion

  22. We could print currency (or, really, we could print a lot more than we already do) as N suggests. The problem is it would be inflationary, in the sense that it would encourage economic agents to prefer to hold values other than currency and the value of the currency would fall. Agents would hoard values other than currency. This would be inconvenient and inefficient in many ways and would likely disrupt asset prices, production, employment and investment. It’s the kind of thing we could do in a deflationary crisis, but it’s not the kind of thing you’d do as matter of everyday policy.

    We have to find other ways to reach full employment.

  23. Oakeshott Country
    Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 10:29 am

    Two examples of governments that did not back their currency are
    The early years of Weimar Germany anf the Confederate states of America.

    No currencies are “backed” – ie, are exchangeable for, say, gold – these days.

  24. Obviously but there is backing in that they are government issue, with the implication that monetary policy will enable a stable currency. If there is no confidence in this inflation follows – just as you have said. In this sense all currencies are fiat

  25. nicholas @ #65 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 8:20 am

    On this topic of the credit rating of the federal government when spending its own currency, Ross Gittins, Peter Martin, and Greg Jericho are way off the mark, along with almost everyone else. It is completely wrong to claim that the Government of Australia – the issuer of the Australian dollar – could ever involuntarily fail to meet a financial commitment denominated in Australian dollars.

    Printing money to repay debt is a de facto form of default. From the perspective of an offshore investor it would lead to losses as the currency was devalued. Issuers that are more likely to need to resort to the printing press should have lower credit ratings.

  26. briefly @ #85 Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 10:33 am

    Oakeshott Country
    Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 10:29 am

    Two examples of governments that did not back their currency are
    The early years of Weimar Germany anf the Confederate states of America.

    No currencies are “backed” – ie, are exchangeable for, say, gold – these days.

    I’m pretty sure you can buy gold with AUD, any time you like. The price is listed on news reports.

  27. Saw the front page of the deadwood GG today. In very large print at the top of the page we are told that Scrott has clung on to a Triple A due to a “razor thin surplus ” !!!! .

  28. Yes but it is many years since Australian notes had:
    Payable in Gold Coin at the Commonwealth Treasury at the seat of Government
    Seat of government rather than Canberra tells you how long ago

  29. MTBW
    I reckon a hypertensive crisis or severe chest pain is about 72 hours away. I may be cynical but I think he knows too much from both sides of the chamber to do serious time

  30. Luckily we have long since dispensed with the gold standard. These days we have a mutual confidence standard. It is confidence that determines the exchange value of currencies. The willingness and ability of the issuer of currency to pay interest on its borrowings, to redeem them when they fall due and to hold alternates (other currencies) in reserve are among the many factors that determine confidence in any currency. We can choose hard money or soft money. If we pursue hard money policies, the cost of capital should be less than it otherwise would be and we will be able to better mobilise the investment we need to grow output, employment and incomes.

    Of course, by themselves, hard money policies are not sufficient. But they are necessary.

  31. There is still time for Obeid to make his application for bail in the High Court before Xmas and the International Court of Justice by the end of the year.

  32. Appreciate your explanation Briefly but it will have no effect on Nicholas.
    From a simplistic view if I loose confidence in the government’s ability or willingness to maintain a stable currency, I am not going to keep savings. Those with the wherewithal will convert their cash to a safe haven currency or gold while those without those means will spend. Investment disappears and inflation takes off.
    I think that being employed is one determinate of views on monetary policy or effectively how you view money. Someone who is employed wakes at 5 and says I really don’t want to travel 2 hours do 8 hours labour and then travel 2 hours back but if I don’t I won’t get the things I want.
    Nicholas view on the other hand is that its the government’s duty to provide everyone with a living and should continue to print money to improve that living. To me this implies a certain passivity That reduces life’s meaning

  33. Professor Garnaut says MYEFO assumes a strengthening of economic growth, of which there is no sign. Instead, he warns the budget outlook will continue to deteriorate unless effective action is taken to increase growth by making the economy more competitive.

    But he is opposed to the Government’s plan to boost the economy with significant corporate tax cut, warning it will worsen the budget outlook over the relevant period.

    He argues instead the Reserve Bank needs to cut interest rates and drive down the value of the Australian Dollar as a way to make business more competitive. And he says the Government needs to directly boost the economy by taking advantage of low global interest rates to borrow and invest in new public infrastructure.

    These measures should be backed by moderate and gradual cuts in spending, and moderate and gradual tax increases to repair the budget.

    https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/no-pot-of-gold-at-end-of-budget-rainbow?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=story

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