BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

bt2019-2016-11-09

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12

  1. Can anyone make a guess as to the cause of Trump’s orange face? Sunlamp or Vit. A?

    Haemochromatosis? I understand that it’s most common among fair skinned people of Northern European heritage. Another well known orange-tinted American, John Boehner (recent Speaker of the US House of Reps) has it.

    Or it could be spray tan.

  3. The transmission system also requires ongoing costs to maintain and operate. It is also vulnerable to failure as recent SA experience sadly demonstrates. A technology that renders the grid unnecessary has many advantages, unless you are the owner of the existing grid and fond of charging monopoly rents.

  4. Boerwar

    I do hope you are not seriously arguing that Clinton and Trump are no difference in relation to global warming action.

    No. My point was about the weakness of Clinton’s position, even if she won the election. It is a short term setback for the Paris agreement and the climate generally that Trump was elected, but might focus a few minds.
    If a party, like the Democrats, can’t come up with a decent policy fix for the rust belt and income inequality, then they will not achieve the social cohesion required to deliver the change necessary to adequately mitigate climate change.
    (Technology – fortuitously – is doing most of the heavy lifting in reducing emissions, not governments. Notable exceptions being Costa Rica, possibly Germany and a couple of Scandinavian countries.)

  5. I am fairly sure Trump does not have Haemochromatosis, unless he suffers from a new variant of it that leaves the skin near the eyes, that is hard to spray, strangely unaffected.

  7. The ABC and “elite media” are to blame for distracting people from the government’s focus on economic growth, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said, at pains to emphasise that he is in touch with the concerns of real people.

    Poor ABC, they’re doing their best for Mal and he’s showing no gratitude!

  8. lizzie @ #760 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:23 am

    KayJay

    my experience is that drinking large quantities of fluid for pleasure (or compulsion) is vastly different to the partaking of “Bowel Prep”.

    I suppose I was thinking of the ability to drink a half-pint in one “swallow”. Men seem to be able to open their throats and simply pour it down. I can only sip, or I choke.

    I think that is an acquired skill.
    So obviously you need more practice Lizzie. 😆

  10. All the talk about Trump ditching the Paris agreement ignore the elephant in the room.

    For that to work Trump has to break a treaty with China. Not a problem if he is serious about trade wars.

    However China may reward California and other Democrat states for staying with the Paris targets or even exceeding them.

    California has a massive impact on the US economic situation and its culture as well. This is the best weapon the progressives in the US have.

  12. Not surprised by either of the leaders’ ratings.
    Nobody believes a word that comes out of Turnbull’s mouth, and Shorten has gone back to sounding forced and contrived in the limited exposure that he gets. Mind you, I’m sure that it is often edited to make him sound as bad as possible.

  14. A11

    Interconnected microgrid networks have very serious advantages. You can shunt power around cities where needed. Reduced costs and yes less transmission loss and massive savings on costs of transmission lines.

    eg. How many fires will be started by renewable sources not needing transmission powers across the country.

  15. LIZZIE – Malcolm say’s he’s in touch with average Australians because he catches public transport – you couldn’t make this stuff up. I understand that the poor, the disabled and the marginalised crowd onto the 324 bus from Watsons Bay in the hope that they will get an audience with his magnificence.

  17. Trog

    (Technology – fortuitously – is doing most of the heavy lifting in reducing emissions, not governments. Notable exceptions being Costa Rica, possibly Germany and a couple of Scandinavian countries.)

    Sadly, not in China, India or the USA.

  18. P1

    India you are wrong on. Economic advantage all with renewables as they don’t need to build transmission towers and locals are going to renewables.

    To see effect see mobile internet v cable internet.

  19. steve777 @ #801 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:59 am

    Can anyone make a guess as to the cause of Trump’s orange face? Sunlamp or Vit. A?
    Haemochromatosis? I understand that it’s most common among fair skinned people of Northern European heritage. Another well known orange-tinted American, John Boehner (recent Speaker of the US House of Reps) has it.
    Or it could be spray tan.

    Haemochromatosis is a genetic syndrome that can result in the body storing excess iron which deposits in places like joints, liver and brain. I am unaware of it causing any change in skin colour.
    Until discovered relatively recently, it was a likely cause of death from cirrhosis of the liver by many teetotallers!
    The gene is confined to people of northern European origin and even with the gene, the syndrome may not develop.
    Treatment is simple – donate blood.

  20. [Antonbruckner11
    Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 11:10 am
    LIZZIE – Malcolm say’s he’s in touch with average Australians because he catches public transport – you couldn’t make this stuff up. I understand that the poor, the disabled and the marginalised crowd onto the 324 bus from Watsons Bay in the hope that they will get an audience with his magnificence.]

    I wonder if Malcolm has an Opal card for seniors, on the basis he is over 60 and works less than 20 hours a week.

  22. I’m sure it’s been said many times before, but when will the ABC realise that they will never placate the people who are ideologically opposed to their very existence? It’s the equivalent to sheep evolving to become even more docile and delicious in the hope that people will stop eating them.

  24. P1

    Your logic is flawed. Most of the transmission network is already built, as are most of the power stations. It doesn’t matter how low the costs of renewables goes, fossil fuels will always be cheaper.

    So – given the fact that 40% of my retail electricity bill every month is transmission and distribution costs – about $250, I should write to AGL and tell them to fuck off charging me this as the SA Power Networks infrastructure is already built, and if the power goes off because of a lightning strike I’ll fix it myself?

  28. Trog

    So – given the fact that 40% of my retail electricity bill every month is transmission and distribution costs – about $250, I should write to AGL and tell them to fuck off charging me this as the SA Power Networks infrastructure is already built, and if the power goes off because of a lightning strike I’ll fix it myself?

    If you were serious, yes that’s exactly what you should do.

    I did.

  29. Poor old Julie Bishop, at some point the Libs will tell her that she’s got to step up and become PM, and all she’ll want to do is scream: “You know I’m not up to the job. Any fool can see that. I just want to wear nice clothes and piss around the world as FM”.

  30. For $250/mth – just the transmission component of my electricity bill – I could borrow $21000 at 6% over 10 years. Could get some serious solar panels and battery storage for that, and afterwards FREE energy.

  31. The Comey letter was the endpoint of a long long effort to delegitimize Clinton, Obama, the Democrats, and the idea of government in general.

    Which is a huge part of the challenge now. How do you complain about FBI interference in the election or the closing of polling places, without further undermining the idea of good government?

  34. Trog
    You seem to be arguing that it is OK to prefer Trump to Clinton because things need to be made worse in order to be made better.
    The first part of your ‘plan’ is working excellently well.
    Trump is going to speed up global warming.
    Abortion is going to be extremely difficult to obtain in the US.
    The latest Trump appointment has strong links with white supramacists.
    He is thinking hard about putting a banker in charge of the banks and oil company executives in charge of energy.
    I am not sure whether he is still thinking that Palin should look after the environment.

  35. Mari
    I had one patient who was so incensed he rang up his health fund and blasted them so fiercely the accounts manager who told him he wasn’t covered started crying and gave in.

  37. Dan
    Still playing dodgem cars, I see.
    The Greens had four choices in the US:
    1. Don’t vote.
    2. Vote for Trump.
    3. Vote for the Greens.
    4. Vote for Clinton.
    1, 2 and 3 have no impact on the result which is that Trump cooks the planet, progressively ensures that abortion is virtually impossible to obtain, reduces taxes for the wealthy, destroys Obamacare, etc, etc, etc…

    4. Would have resulted in Obama’s reforms remaining intact and the US remaining one of the global leaders in fighting global warming. It would have helped protect minorities. It would have helped ensure that US women have choice.

    There were enough Greens voters in the US to make their vote decisively powerful in the outcome. If they had all (a) voted and (b) voted for Clinton we would have POTUS Clinton.

    The Greens went for the speeded up cook the planet option along with the obligatory outrage.

  38. trog sorrenson @ #858 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 11:43 am

    Doesn’t that somewhat negate your argument about nothing being cheaper than existing poles, wires and power generators?

    Not at all. You are confusing the cost to the producer with what they charge you.

    My argument is basically to call bullshit on people who think that economics is going to solve global warming. It won’t. Solving it requires people to get off their arses and actually do something about it.

  39. So why have you not?

    I guess the main reason is the rapid drop in costs. You think that if you hold off another year, then the technology will be even cheaper and more efficient, and given that the technology – panels anyway – will last 30 years it is a decision that is worth getting right.
    Battery storage costs dropped by a factor of 2 in the past month with the Tesla Powerwall2, so the battery option has only just started to become a no brainer.

  40. boerwar @ #859 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 11:43 am

    The latest Trump appointment has strong links with white supramacists.
    He is thinking hard about putting a banker in charge of the banks and oil company executives in charge of energy.
    I am not sure whether he is still thinking that Palin should look after the environment.

    And of course Putin in charge of foreign policy.

  41. P1

    The argument is that enough to the world is doing the hard yards on renewables that the economics are stacking up.

    Like it or lump it thats the reality.

    Australia is currently a laggard and is going to miss out on great economic benefits from renewables as Bill Shorten continuously outlines in his press conferences and speeches when talking about Labor’s climate policies.

  42. Trog

    I guess the main reason is the rapid drop in costs. You think that if you hold off another year, then the technology will be even cheaper and more efficient, and given that the technology – panels anyway – will last 30 years it is a decision that is worth getting right.

    Okay, so how much warming are you willing to put up with before you decide to invest? 3 degrees? 4 degrees? Because it’s more important to save money, right?

  43. BW

    Et tu with dodgem cars I see.

    Show us all how the Greens voting for Clinton would’ve affected the Electoral College vote.

    Clinton already won the popular vote and that didn’t have any effect at all on the EC result.

    Please show us detailed figures how you have arrived at your hypothesis.

    Not just opinions, but cold hard, data on a state by state basis, that proves beyond all reasonable doubt that Clinton would’ve won the Electoral College vote.

    Remember, she already won the popular vote but not the EC.

  44. That bulk billing fall story is going to kill the LNP popularity or whats left of it.

    LNP is in major major trouble no wonder they are shrieking about boats.

Comments Page 9 of 12
1 … 8 9 10 … 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *