BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

bt2019-2016-11-09

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Washington: President-elect Donald Trump backed away from his promise to build a wall on the US-Mexican border, saying some areas could instead be “fencing,” and added he would move to deport up to 3 million immigrants in the country illegally who have criminal records.

    Trump, who made his pledge to force Mexico to pay for a border wall a centrepiece of his White House campaign, said “for certain areas” he would accept fencing instead of a brick-and-mortar wall, according to excerpts released on Sunday of his interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-says-part-of-promised-border-wall-could-be-fence-20161113-gsogq7.html

  2. I fully expect Turnbull & Co. to get a bump in the polls from the AS deal as there are enough people who pay politicians on results, and this is certainly something, which is better than a Kafkaesque nothing for these people.

    However the devil will be in the detail and some of that is emerging. So it seems that the US will mainly take families and children. Therefore, what will happen to the large number of Single Men, who I think are mainly housed on Manus, which is definitely closing. Will they go to Nauru on these new ’20 Year Visas’?

    Then there are those already deemed not to be refugees, who have already refused entreaties to return back to their country of origin. Will they be forcibly removed from the camps and returned to origin countries and dumped there?

    What you can count on is lots of gloating by Turnbull & Co. : )

  3. Thanks William, can ‘t think of what happened last week .

    Wow up 3 seats from 79 to 83. There must be a cluster of marginals

  4. It seems as though the isolation of America under Trump has already begun.

    According to Dennis Atkins on Newsradio just now, as the TPP is deemed pretty well dead, all the countries that were a part of the TPP are being asked to form a new partnership with America excluded and China and Russia included!

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Urban Wronski says Trump-mania overtook Australia in Turnbull’s bad hair week.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/11/13/trump-mania-overtakes-australia-in-turnbulls-bad-hair-week/
    By their own comment “the deplorables” will get a win in Orange.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/shooters-fishers-and-farmers-declare-win-for-deplorables-in-orange-byelection-20161113-gso52y.html
    And as a result the NSW Nationals are in open warfare over leadership.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nationals-in-open-warfare-as-troy-grant-faces-leadership-coup-20161113-gsoal0.html
    Michael Gordon says that finally Turnbull is not just Abbott in a nicer suit. But there are some unanswered questions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/finally-turnbull-shows-he-is-not-just-abbott-in-a-nicer-suit-20161113-gso75n.html
    Mark Kenny looks at the refugee deal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/us-refugee-deal-hope-in-a-dismal-space–the-good-news-story-that-had-to-wait-20161113-gsob7a.html
    Was the deal rushed to avoid the possibility of a Trump presidency?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/11/13/manus-nauru-deal-us/
    Everything we need to know about the US resettlement deal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-us-refugee-resettlement-deal-20161113-gso92u.html
    Fergus Hunter on Turnbull defending Dutton and Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/amid-breakthrough-deal-malcolm-turnbull-defends-peter-dutton-and-scott-morrison-20161113-gso671.html
    Deborah Snow says that there are very mixed emotions from the refugees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/confusion-fear-and-joy-mixed-response-from-asylum-seekers-to-governments-us-resettlement-plan-20161113-gso64a.html
    Tom Switzer writes that Trump has fans in the Liberal Party but Australia won’t follow.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-has-fans-in-the-liberal-party-but-australia-wont-follow-20161111-gsnfqh.html

  6. Section 2 . . .

    Labor says ‘snobby disdain’ for disadvantaged led to rise of Trump and Hanson writes Katerine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/14/labor-says-snobby-disdain-for-disadvantaged-led-to-rise-of-trump-and-hanson
    Latika Burke on Trump’s barrage of tweets about what he’s going to do. It’s a worry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/donald-trump-to-immediately-deport-up-to-three-million-immigrants-says-wall-could-be-partly-fence-20161113-gsog3a.html
    Ross Gittins tells us that there is little right and plenty wrong with Trumponomics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/little-right-much-wrong-with-trumponomics-20161112-gso2br.html
    Gerry Harvey’s grandiose ideas have cost him a motza! Can’t say I’m sorry for the man.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/harvey-normans-secret-startup-20161110-gsm9o0.html
    The roosting chickens of the “Not my President” protests are causing some concern. It is possible there ARE some professional protesters amongst the crowds.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-advisers-urge-obama-clinton-to-call-off-professional-protesters-20161113-gsogjd.html
    The Trump-Putin alliance has sparked a diplomatic crisis in the UK.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trumpvladimir-putin-alliance-sparks-diplomatic-crisis-20161112-gso1oi.html
    Dave Donovan tells us that the rise of Donald Trump is a sign of the times.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trumped-by-zeitgeist,9721
    Trump is moving to quickly pull out of the Paris climate change agreement.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/11/13/trump-moving-to-quit-paris-climate-agreement-quickly/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Employee cash-in-hand jobs are on the rise.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/illegal-cashinhand-payments-in-australias-black-economy-on-the-rise-20161111-gsnaue.html
    And Bill Shorten writes that 457 visa holders are taking Australians’ jobs and being exploited at the same time.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/13/bill-shorten-says-temporary-overseas-workers-taking-the-jobs-of-australians

  7. Section 3 . . .

    The Turnbull Government’s appeal to the States to address housing affordability is a tactic to divert attention from its own breathtaking inaction, writes Michael Clancy in The Independent Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/housing-affordability-the-turnbull-governments-un-australian-dream,9723
    Using Australia as its base Aldi is setting up to launch into China.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/illegal-cashinhand-payments-in-australias-black-economy-on-the-rise-20161111-gsnaue.html
    Greg Baum writes that it must be Yong Talent Time” for the Australian test team.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/cricket-as-in-olden-days-its-young-talent-time-20161113-gsoatg.html
    Turnbull is “confident” Trump will honour the new asylum seeker deal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-confident-donald-trump-will-honour-new-asylum-seeker-20161113-gsog7i.html
    Meanwhile Trump is ignoring pleas to sign off on the TPP. Peter Martin has a look.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/transpacific-partnership-dead-before-trump-even-takes-office-20161113-gso9kn.html
    Greg Jericho on the perils of using polls alone to cover election campaigns.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/nov/13/poll-numbers-election-coverage-horse-race
    All is not well within One Nation as James Ashby hurls his phone at Rod Culleton’s advisor. Google.
    /national-affairs/rod-culleton-aide-claims-james-ashby-threw-phone/news-story/8b265d6761b9ec66182eb5fbe1c19939
    Tim Dick writes that we are being exposed to and falling for fake news at an increasing rate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fake-news-has-become-a-real-problem-20161113-gso3ds.html
    NSW Transport Minister should be stripped of his responsibility for road safety says Harold Scruby. Is he a victim of the rural rump?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/duncan-gay-should-be-stripped-of-responsibility-for-road-safety-20161111-gsniot.html
    Does the Trump victory mean the end of progress?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/13/donald-trumps-victory-means-progress-is-history-david-mitchell
    How to resist Trumpland Down Under.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/12/all-the-ingredients-for-trumpland-down-under-are-there-heres-how-to-resist/

  8. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Adelaide’s new hospital faces big problems as fundamental design issues cannot be easily attended to. It’s an unbelievable situation. How can you design – let alone build – a structure with loading bays that are too narrow? Google.
    /news/national/new-royal-adelaide-hospital-up-to-another-year-off-after-health-minister-rejects-new-plan-to-fix-alleged-safety-defects/news-story/d693c1c28bc246806c4d6f5cf643f528
    More major charities are being associated with crook fundraising companies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/amnesty-wesley-mission-caught-up-in-fundraising-scam-20161112-gsnx7y.html
    In an op-ed piece Andrew Leigh asks why when crime rates are falling our prison population is rising. Good question!

    Greg Barnes says that Turnbull’s attack on the 18c case is based on a serious error.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbulls-attack-on-18c-case-based-on-a-serious-error-20161111-gsn43y.html
    And Crispin Hull tells us why Trump shows us why we need Section 18’s protection against hate speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/trump-shows-why-we-need-section-18s-protection-against-racehate-speech-20161110-gsmxxh.html
    Fairfax columnist Aubrey Perry says that she is an American but not a fan of THAT America. Worth a read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/im-an-american-but-im-no-patriot-of-that-america-20161111-gsn8ru.html

    A telling contribution from Cathy Wilcox.

    And Cathy takes us into the remodelled White House.

    David Rowe also ventures into the White House.

    Bill Leak’s got problems.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f36afc50bd0cf276f9d1a20edad31d79

  9. C@Tmomma
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 7:33 am
    I fully expect Turnbull & Co. to get a bump in the polls from the AS deal as there are enough people who pay politicians on results, and this is certainly something, which is better than a Kafkaesque nothing for these people.

    C@t

    I’ll be surprised if Turnbull gets much of a bounce out of this. He has been noticeably silent about what the US wants in return and my guess is that when we find out it will not go down very well with the punters. The Americans will not be doing this out of the goodness of their hearts, of that we can be sure.

    There is also no certainty that Trump will honour such a deal. Turnbull admitted yesterday that he hadn’t even raised the matter with Trump when he spoke to him last week – extraordinary when you think about it, given Trump’s attitude towards immigration.

    Then of course there’s Turnbull’s well known propensity to turn every potential advantage into a total embarrassment. No-one does it better than him. So I personally wouldn’t be making any predictions about poll bounces at this stage.

  10. I see that shameful rag the AFR (run by a right-wing troll) is accusing Shorten of being Trump-lite. Bill must be doing something right.

  11. I hope that, at the next election, there is going to be a big fight over 457 visas. There will be only one winner in that battle.

  12. You’ve got to hand it to Putin for getting results.

    Russian leaders for decades would have given anything to be able to pick the US president. Putin, as far as I know, is the first to have managed it.

    It’s already paying off for him – Syria now is almost certain to stay as an ally of Russia.

  13. victoria
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 8:32 am
    Morning
    BK
    Appreciate today’s round up.

    ****************************************
    Another trumper edition, BK !!

    What would PB be without you !!!

  14. Thank you BK.
    I am *mazed by the Adelaide Hospital story.
    The prize for stupidity and incompetence must be huge. The number of entries appear to be growing exponentially.
    I have a new plan. My tin foil hat seems not to be working very well. The addition of sound deadening headphones may help to keep out unwanted noise (chatter from dills and nongs) and stray radiation from trolls and wandering aliens.
    Last night, the very favourite daughter and her husband visited. Husband asked me who is the leader of the Labor party. When I told him that it is Bill Shorten I was informed that he (Bill Shorten) had said nasty things about Mr. Trump and has had to back down.
    Now, my very dear Dorothy, my life experience tells me that trying to inform the terminally fairyland dwellers is a forlorn and thankless task.
    Should I smile benignly and say something about the weather.
    or
    Adopt a hunted expression and change the subject to a closer moon will enable the Chinese to land there more easily.
    I am rambling, More mowing for me today. 🙂

  15. Oliver Darcy ‏@oliverdarcy 26m26 minutes ago
    Trump transition team confirms: @Reince named chief of staff, Bannon to serve as chief strategist and senior counselor.

  16. I like the thrust of Jim Chalmers’ arguments. Labor has found the right tone in the wake of the US election.

    As to Hanson, more should have been made of her and Roberts drinking champagne on parliament lawns while their supporters wonder how to pay the next power bill.

  17. Thus Spake Mungo: God help America, and the world

    First the Poms abandoned common sense in backing Brexit and now the Yanks have voted against their own best interests (and those of the rest of the civilised world) by electing Donald J Trump.

    This was not a rational decision; it was the ultimate political gesture, a defiant middle finger towards what they imagined was The Establishment, by which they actually meant anything and anyone they resented.

    Trump does not have an agenda for change – it is hardly even a wish list of fantasies. Deport, ban or gaol everyone he doesn’t like; destroy affordable health care for the poor while handing out huge tax cuts to the rich; end foreign trade and reopen the coal mines, restart the assembly lines and deliver a chicken in every pot and a pussy in every hand – and, of course, make America great again.

    Eventually sanity will prevail. Either the establishment will strike back, or more probably the voters who believed that Trump would indeed be the Messiah who would deliver them from their chains and bring in a new world order in which America ruled the world and they would share the spoils would realise that they had been conned; their world will be changed, but not for the better.

    So what do they do now? What does anyone do now? We simply don’t know – we were never prepared for this. God help America – God help Australia — God help the world.

    http://www.echo.net.au/2016/11/thus-spake-mungo-god-help-america-world/

  18. Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef 43m43 minutes ago
    Big news!
    – Samantha Maiden to leave newspapers for Sky News
    – David Speers, Kieran Gilbert in talks with ABC 7:30

  19. antonbruckner11 @ #12 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 8:24 am

    http://www.afr.com/news/world/us-election/hillarys-missing-100000-voters-20161113-gso3hs
    Excellent article on the election by Simon Jackman in AFR. Notes that Hillary looks like winning popular vote by 1.5 million. When you put that and the congressional gerrymander together, I wonder if US democracy is really heading for legitimacy issues.

    The US is not a democracy. I don’t think it ever was.
    It is in fact a weird pseudo democracy.

  20. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s effort, and thanks PhoenixRed for today’s Mungo. I’m doubtful that sanity will prevail. My guess is that Trump will do everything to hang onto power whatever the cost.

  21. bemused @ #25 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:01 am

    antonbruckner11 @ #12 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 8:24 am

    http://www.afr.com/news/world/us-election/hillarys-missing-100000-voters-20161113-gso3hs
    Excellent article on the election by Simon Jackman in AFR. Notes that Hillary looks like winning popular vote by 1.5 million. When you put that and the congressional gerrymander together, I wonder if US democracy is really heading for legitimacy issues.

    The US is not a democracy. I don’t think it ever was.
    It is in fact a weird pseudo democracy.

    I regard a democracy as a state where the population has a genuine opportunity to replace its elected representatives periodically. There are many different systems, often with inbuilt biases that favour one sector of the society over another, but that still have the underlying capacity to replace representatives, and thereby promote accountability. In that sense the US is a democracy, except to the extent that it suppresses the right of some citizens to vote. This is not good now, compared to 2012, but infinitely better than the century leading up to the Civil Rights Act.

    What do you see as the essential characteristics of a democracy? (Genuine and serious question).

  22. Good Morning

    For any that missed it the speech by Mr Shorten to Labor Victoria yesterday tells me that banks medicare and jobs jobs jobs how to get them will be centre front stage issues at the election if Labor has its way.

  23. “David Speers, Kieran Gilbert in talks with ABC 7:30”
    Speer certainly an improvement on Sales (a half-full rubbish skip would be an improvement on Ms Sales). Not that I’d watch 7.30, anyway. The Feed on SBS2 is OK.

  24. In his presser just now Turnbull tried to claim to be a job creator. This from a PM that is part of the government that killed the car industry

  25. TPOF – Gore Vidal called the US a Donocracy, and I think that sums it up. But I think even Americans might start to questions the assumption they live in a democracy.

  26. bemused
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:01 am

    The US is not a democracy. I don’t think it ever was.
    It is in fact a weird pseudo democracy.

    *****************************************************

    In April 1947 the popular syndicated columnist Leonard Lyons printed an anecdote about Churchill in the Washington Post:

    From the man who brought him the offer, Winston Churchill exacted a promise that this story would not be printed until he no longer was Prime Minister:
    At the height of Churchill’s popularity he received an offer of $5000 a lecture for a Nation-wide tour of America. “That’s an unbelievable figure,” said Churchill … “In that case,” said Churchill, “it would prove that America is the first country which went from Barbarism to Decadence, without a certain intervening period of civilization.”

  27. tpof @ #54 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:06 am

    bemused @ #25 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:01 am

    What do you see as the essential characteristics of a democracy? (Genuine and serious question).

    A democracy should enfranchise its entire adult population with few exceptions and only for good reason. The US fails miserably.
    A democracy should have elections run by non-partisan, non-elected officials. The US fails miserably.
    A democracy should seek to promote its citizen exercising their democratic right to vote by facilitating voting and maybe even making it compulsory as we do. The US again fails miserably.
    A democracy should, as far as possible, ensure votes are of equal value. The US fails miserably on this. Australia fails but not as badly and has been moving in the right direction.
    That’s a few points to start with.

  28. Another reason Hanson will not become the norm in Australia is Labor’s NBN.

    Country voters know Labor wanted country and regional people to be included with the internet. Not excluded as is happening under the LNP NBN

  29. bemused Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:19 am
    phoenixred @ #61 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:14 am

    Thanks for that. I had seen the quote before but didn’t know how it arose.

  30. Even worse than that – self-pitying whining.

    It’s a good think Leak is in the Australian where hardly anyone sees his cartoons.

  31. Heard Turnbull on his brilliant plan to “clean up Labor’s mess”.
    Then he was asked an unscheduled question about NZ earthquake.

    It was blindingly obvious that he had been rehearsing his strong, PM-like phrases about the migrants and the disgrace of Shorten. Very fluent, very loud, and wanted to end the presser there.

    Then speaking off the cuff on NZ, he reverted to the stammering Waffler.

  32. bemused
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:19 am
    phoenixred @ #61 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:14 am
    Thanks for that. I had seen the quote before but didn’t know how it arose.

  33. bemused
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:19 am
    **********************************
    ooops my message just got swallowed …. try again

    The quote has been attributed to many people , Bemused – Oscar Wilde etc etc …. Churchill just repeated it

    But Churchill did say – You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.

  34. political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will join Shadow Employment Minister @BOConnorMP to meet Latrobe Valley manufacturing workers, 10am #auspol

  35. phoenixred @ #71 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:27 am

    bemused
    Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:19 am
    **********************************
    ooops my message just got swallowed …. try again
    The quote has been attributed to many people , Bemused – Oscar Wilde etc etc …. Churchill just repeated it
    But Churchill did say – You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.

    Your reply was sabotaged by my emoticon.
    Sorry about that, but the gerbils just don’t cater for it.
    Another quote I had heard. Churchill certainly had a way with words.

  36. Bemused @ 9.16

    I agree that Australia beats the USA on all of those metrics. But if that is how you define democracy, then there are no countries in the world that measure up. I think the USA has some deplorable measures to restrict voting rights (including the permanent disenfranchisement of former prisoners in some states) but it is still a democracy in my books.

    Like it or not, the fact that Trump could win against all the expectations of the broad establishment does show this. I deplore Trump’s victory and worry deeply about its implications for the USA and the world. But the people who voted for him did so with open eyes (or at least eyes that they chose to open only as far as they wanted) and they can well and truly wear it. By contrast, Putin’s Russia is not a democracy because there is no genuine attempt to replace him, with serious opposition and information violently suppressed.

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