Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.
Good morning all,
I found it interesting yesterday that Turnbull admitted he had not discussed the AS deal with Trump in their much lauded telephone conversation.
Such a brave man that Malcolm and what a good start to his relationship with Trump. He had the opportunity to be front up with Trump but he squibbed it.
I still have serious doubts this deal will actually get off the ground. Grump will be under huge pressure domestically when this deal goes public over there and I would be surprised if many republicans see any positives in this and I have no doubt right wing anti immigration groups would cop it.
Would Trump be prepared to back away so quickly from his anti immigration rhetoric so soon after the election ? I would be surprised if he does not come under significant pressure to skuttle the whole deal especially when he was not informed about it by the Australuan PM.
Turnbull was in so much of a rush to get a result he well may have self destructed.
We shall see anyway.
Cheers
Sorry another point I should have mentioned from Turnbull’s presser earlier. He slammed Mr Shorten for his comments about Trump.
Agree or not that style is what got Trump elected being the honest no BS tell it as it is leader.
tpof @ #75 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:33 am
Well what you say is true. But at least many countries aspire to such standards and certainly get a lot closer than the US which appears to not even aspire.
And yet they have the audacity to hold up the US as a shining example of democracy.
Vomit inducing.
My definition of a democracy is that it embodies a system whereby any ordinary citizen can, via the electoral process, rise up to lead their country.
PO:
I only ever see his cartoons when they’re reprinted in other media, like with the 18c complaint. I certainly never go looking for them specifically.
lizzie @ #68 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:24 am
The way the resettlement announcement has been made is to create very big expectations. But there are precious few details about timing and process. I am skeptical that much at all will be achieved – although I really hope otherwise for the sake of the poor people banged up on Nauru and Manus. By the time the next election rolls around, Malcolm will actually own the failure of the resettlement, I think, although I hope that he is successful in this at least.
Malcolm Turnbull really has to be the most incompetent Prime Minister leading the most incompetent government I have ever seen.
And yet they have the audacity to hold up the US as a shining example of democracy.
Yes. It was called ‘the Audacity of Hope’ as I recall, and it elected Citizen Obama to be POTUS as recently as 2012.
It is the people of the USA who do the holding up. As in so many things, US citizens have a very distorted view of the rectitude and leadership their country offers the world.
The late and great Leonard Cohen had a pretty savvy take:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEDSRP3yNPo
c@tmomma @ #104 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:35 am
Like Hitler did?
Very poor definition.
I think I heard Shayne Neumann, Labor’s Shadow Immigration Minister, on AM saying that there are still 583 Single Men and others who have been refused refugee status that the government has not told Labor yet what they want to do with them.
I’ve had enough of it!
https://twitter.com/WEDeming/status/797932401536008192
Bemused,
Like Hitler did?
Very poor definition.
Post facto justification for criticism.
Poor retort.
Doesn’t address the definition, whether you liked Hitler or not. Or Trump, should his regime embody our worst expectations.
C@tmomma Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:35 am
My definition of a democracy is that it embodies a system whereby any ordinary citizen can, via the electoral process, rise up to lead their country.
********************************
Quoted by many others but :
“In America, anyone can become president. That’s the problem.”
― George Carlin
On the US democracy. It is undemocratic. Popular vote is the popular vote. Clinton won it. The Electoral College should go.
In the same vein we should consider how much weight we give to low population voting areas. They have to have a voice to be represented but not a majority of the time when the majority is in the cities.
At the moment the country and regional areas get more say than the majority in the cities most of the time as the LNP dominates by being in government most. We should consider weakening that influence a little.
From BK’s links …
Why has it taken Labor so long to figure out what everyone else already knew? Anyone who works the service sector knows that in the last few years large sections have been overtaken by 457 visa holders.
But one thing that only a few people seem to have realized is that large chunks of the IT industry (yes, the one that is supposed to provide our ‘agile and innovative’ kids with jobs in the future) has gone the same way.
I wouldn’t want to claim that #CensusFail, the eHealth catastrophe, the Centrelink fiasco, the MyGov disaster or the recent ATO meltdown were all directly caused by this … but it is notable that many of the major government IT contractors – most notably IBM and HP – are staffed disproportionately by 457 visa holders. I know this from my own experience because I used to work for one of them. At times, I felt like I was the last Australian left in the building.
phoenixred @ #113 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:45 am
Hmmmm do you collect quotations?
You have some good ones for PB.
BK:
I’m with you!
bk @ #111 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:43 am
As others have pointed out, Turnbull is not channeling Churchill – he’s channeling Jim Hacker.
When in trouble the coalition always return to old faithful: boats.
bemused Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:47 am
phoenixred @ #113 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:45 am
Hmmmm do you collect quotations?
You have some good ones for PB.
*********************************************
I seem to have an insatiable thirst for reading, especially *history* – including quotes – and just see event after event repeating itself throughout …..
player one @ #115 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:46 am
For once I can entirely agree with P1.
I started my IT career working for a multinational but it was staffed almost entirely by Australians, as were its competitors.
Now the multi-national IT service providers seem to function as a conduit for bringing in foreign workers to displace Australians from their jobs. Their character has entirely changed and they add nothing to job opportunities for Australians. In fact, they subtract.
Tertiary students have recognised this and IT enrolments have been down for many years.
I was invited to attend a conference of academics and others to discuss this. It seemed people were not prepared to confront the real issue and preferred to ignore it and pretend it did not exist.
I shocked a couple of academics over morning tea when I told them what was wrong with their courses – they needed to include Hindi as a core subject.
phoenixred @ #120 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:54 am
I have a collection of favourites but only a few are political, mostly from people like Hunter S. Thompson.
Welcome to the Trump administration, where anyone who dares to criticize the president will face the threat of a lawsuit
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/13/trump-abusing-presidential-power-threatening-sue-harry-reid.html
C@tmomma
Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:02 am
Welcome to the Trump administration, where anyone who dares to criticize the president will face the threat of a lawsuit
*********************************************
Donald Trump’s pending lawsuits and his presidency
Even by the standards of billionaire businessmen, Donald Trump is an unusually litigious man who has been involved in thousands of lawsuits – both those he has launched and those he has defended – over the years.
The president-elect has been party to some 4,000 lawsuits over the last 30 years and is currently facing 75 active lawsuits, according to analysis by USA Today newspaper.
By far the most pressing – and potentially embarrassing for the newly elected leader – are several lawsuits launched over the now-defunct Trump University, which centre on former students claiming they were charged tens of thousands of dollars for courses that promised to unlock the secrets of real estate entrepreneurship – and didn’t. Mr Trump denies the claims.
Because these were launched long before he assumed office, no presidential immunity statutes apply and Mr Trump will have to attend court when required.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37956018
Here’s the correct link for Andrew Leigh’s article in this morning’s Dawn Patrol.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/why-is-imprisonment-rising-when-crime-is-falling-20161110-gsmzxf.html
I don’t understand why that’s been such a big issue to begin with. Political correctness is just a social attitude about what things are acceptable to do and say. It has no force of law, no legislation backing it. To get rid of it, you just have to not follow it, and convince enough of society to go along with you. It doesn’t require any particular president or any particular political party to do that.
I call BS on any description of Trump that includes things like “honest” and “no BS”.
He may say whatever he thinks with no filter, but that has no bearing on that fact that very often “whatever he thinks” is often counterfactual if not blatantly dishonest and completely false. Trump cannot get points for being honest when he was literally the most dishonest and inaccurate candidate in the race.
Labor has spent the decades since 1975 trying to demonstrate that it can be responsible financial managers. This reached its apotheosis in the Gillard government when Wayne Swan desperately tried to reduce the deficit. In retrospect (because I thought it the right thing at the time) this was a great mistake by Labor. It got them no advantage in the end and the Abbott/Turnbull regime has crab-walked away from the issues of debt and deficit as it became harder to deal with.
Bill Shorten and Labor have been caught, up to now, in the dual bind of actually wanting to make a difference while still wanting to present as economically and financially literate and capable. The Trump victory has unlocked the shackles.
If Trump does not blow up the world in the meantime, seriously competent left-leaning leaders have now got the opportunity to declare that neo-liberalism has lost its aura for the general population and that it is a spent ideology. Shorten has already sensed this movement and in the last few days has become more clear-voiced in opposing the hypocritical nature of economic liberalism. The challenge is now to separate the important social advances that are derided and suppressed as ‘political correctness’ from the economic bankruptcy of the right. Shorten, by refusing to join the conga line of suckholes (this phrase being Mark Latham’s sole benefit to the nation), has made a move in that direction too.
We are in for interesting times. Hopefully not too frightening, but I still feel very uncomfortable – especially about the move against action on climate change. This is a hard one to sell unless everyone is singing in unison – because serious pain now to ordinary people is unavoidable.
PLUS : In libel suit, Melania Trump says Maryland blogger held ‘reckless disregard for the truth’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/in-libel-suit-melania-trump-says-maryland-blogger-held-reckless-disregard-for-the-truth/2016/11/12/f9074a12-a76d-11e6-8042-f4d111c862d1_story.html
It appears a few in the LNP are to the right of Mr Trump.
stevenportnoy: Trump says he’s “fine with” same-sex marriage. “It’s done,” he’ll tell @60Minutes. Tune in, tonight.
phoenixred @ #153 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:13 am
That was a form of slut shaming and there is no public interest in making those allegations. I have no problems with that defamation action at all.
But Trump using the law courts to suppress genuine reporting of wide public interest on the way he conducts his business and personal life (which was relevant as a Presidential candidate and now President elect) is another thing. He might not find it so encouraging. A lot of Obama supporters will remember the poison he and his Republican colleagues spread about Obama – most notably the birther claims – and will not hold back.
Phoenix Red,
WTF! If anyone holds ‘a reckless disregard for the truth’ it’s Donald Trump!
Didn’t I warn everyone that Melania Trump and her silicone tits with erect nipples visible through sheer blouses (you have a look and see if I’m wrong), is going to be the highly distracting stalking horse for censorship and control of the internet!?!
This crew are serious about fashioning a Putinesque America.
The pong of Stuff-Up is starting to pervade this people swap deal.
Mark Kenny tells us – presumably because he thinks it’s a good thing, “Turnbull quietly governing”etc. – that the government had to set up all its ducks in a row before taking the deal on: more ships, more planes, the “never set foot in Australia” madness that Bill Shorten saw straight through (Bill is looking like a bit of a political genius lately, isn’t he?).
Well, the ducks might be quietly lined up, but the chickens are coming home to roost: Trump got elected instead of Hilary.
Suddenly Turnbull is dealing with a lame-duck Democrat administration. His magnificent set-piece triumph is starting to look like it’s falling apart.
Deborah Snow tells us that only some of the Manus refugees are getting the guernsey, and now they’re all understandably worried as to just who the lucky ones will be, and where they are going. And depending on the destination, maybe they won’t be so lucky after all?
Malcolm’s “outbreak of humanity” (as the ever-hopeful Katharine Murphy puts it) seems to have caused more grief in the short term than it’s set out to alleviate.
So concerned was Malcolm to get it perfect, not to consult with Labor, to even deny there was any deal (or any possibility of it), that it seems he’s dithered a touch too long, and the whole thing might have to be put into the “Too Hard” basket.
Fair dinkum, this bloke is a klutz. He’s still trying to get old Abbott policies through – 18C, the ABCC, his budget measures from 2014, the SSM Referendum (all of them still problematic, or even outright impossible) – and the new idea, The Magnificent Turnbull Solution, crafted in secret, honed to polished perfection by the PM and his oh-so-humanitarian offsider, Dutton, picked the wrong horse in a 2-horse race.
Malcolm Turnbull could not organize a piss-up in a brewery, a root in a brothel, or a clown at a kindy’s Christmas party. He is seriously incompetent and worse, cowering in a corner, tentative, hesitant and hopeless as he sees his grand plans (and don’t forget all those ducks) get shot down one by one.
The headline to the Kenny article in Fairfax today tells us of “an ace up Turnbull’s sleeve”. But a trump card needs to be played at some point, not kept squirreled away until the chips have been paid out, the table folded up and the players have gone home. Bleating, “But you can’t stop the game now! I’ve got an ace up my sleeve!” to the backs of a gaggle of high-stakes poker players is liable to turn those erstwhile orderly waterfowl into common or garden dead ducks.
How on Earth could Malcolm Turnbull stuff-up a no-brainer ike this? That will forever remain a mystery to the likes of Murphy and Kenny. But it’s increasingly looking like he has done just that.
No comment needed:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-refugee-swap-the-kind-of-thing-trump-will-nix-on-day-one-says-washington-think-tank-20161113-gsoi51.html
guytaur @ #114 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 9:45 am
I think your point may have merit if 90+% had voted, but when the participation rate is around 54% the issue is more about why people didn’t vote than the system.
I’m sure he could do the last one. All he needs to do is turn up.
Malcolm Turnbull lost any last shred of Progressive tendencies today when he chastised Bill Shorten for not paying fealty to Trump the way ‘he and Pauline Hanson have’.
I think Turnbull has abandoned the Iron Lady to be stuck like a limpet to the populist apron strings of the Fishwife Lady.
C@tmomma
Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:20 am
WTF! If anyone holds ‘a reckless disregard for the truth’ it’s Donald Trump!
Didn’t I warn everyone that Melania Trump
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This was also in the news :
Melania Trump Reported To US Customs For Immigration Violations
After it was reported that Mrs. Trump worked in the US illegally before becoming a citizen, the wife of the Republican presidential nominee was reported to US Customs for immigration violations.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/06/melania-trump-reported-customs-immigration-violations.html
BB – Very accurate as usual. Malcolm’s announcement has all the hallmarks of a panic move. They saw Trump got elected and tried to close the deal before Trump got a chance to squash it (as he probably will)
BB – I think, deep down, Malcolm is fundamentally lazy and disinterested in administration. He just likes pretending to be PM. Further, at 62, his most energetic days are well behind him (if he ever had them). So he delegates to incompetents.
tpof @ #158 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:25 am
Perhaps that’s why Mal the Maleficent announced it before the deal was actually sealed? This way, he gets a quick boost in the polls for pretending to be interested in finding a “humane” solution but he also gets to blame Trump when it inevitably all goes pear-shaped … ?
Nah, on second thoughts I don’t think Mal’s that clever.
Donald Trump backer says Australia-US refugee swap deal is ‘dead on arrival’
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-refugee-swap-the-kind-of-thing-trump-will-nix-on-day-one-says-washington-think-tank-20161113-gsoi51.html
BIS
I agree about turnout. However we know that the popular vote is clear. Clinton won that.
So as far as turnout goes Clinton won a majority. Get the Electoral College voted out and some sensible election reform in the US can happen. Ending things like voter suppression that did effect turnout even to the point of moving election day to a Saturday so more workers can vote without getting the permission of the boss.
That Electoral College is a gerrymander that lets voters suppression work.
In Australia at the moment we have too much control by the right wing . Built in bias that favours the right in the election system. Media owned by the right as is inevitable when profit is the motive.
We need balance to this. Social Media will get this same bias at some point as profit becomes the motive. Twitter is a great example. It survives doing a great newswire type service but due to profit motive (as distinct from a co operatives or non profit) means twitter may become a failed model and cease to exist.
Taken holistically the right has too much control and that needs to be addressed. As the world now has the majority in Australia do not live in the country in a very urbanised society the weight of the city country divide should be reassessed so the majority does not get left out the majority of the time.
BIS
Sorry last para should read
alfonslopeztena: Make Catalonia great again
Trump, oportunidad para el Procés nacionalista–reaccionario–socialista
@Guillemmartnez
bit.ly/2fNVAsm
https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/797532404256677888
Arrgh
Sorry wrong tweet. Trying again.
Khanoisseur: Hitler’s team worked with global media to normalize him–meticulously reworking his image from an oddball with few family ties to a statesman pic.twitter.com/VqTRyhavkM
https://twitter.com/khanoisseur/status/797532404256677888
I think Hillary Clinton is now 1.5 million votes ahead of Donald Trump on the Popular Vote.
This is too funny for words!
https://www.buzzfeed.com/laurasilver/trump-and-farage-going-for-gold?utm_term=.rfvPVGn12#.xkBjaxKLw
That’s pretty much how I’m reading it at this stage Doyley. The last thing Turnbull would have expected was for Trump to win the election and when he did panic would have set in. Clinton would have been just a rubber stamp to any agreement made with Obama, but with Trump’s anti immigration stance, especially where muslims are involved, that all suddenly changed.
Turnbull is now faced with the very real prospect that the whole thing might collapse in yet another embarrassing heap. Trump may just scrap the whole thing or demand a quid pro quo that Turnbull just cannot accept without upsetting the xenophobes in his party.
As you say we shall see.
Sign outside a coffee shop in London
all Americans must be accompanied by an adult
guytaur @ #167 Monday, November 14, 2016 at 10:38 am
Clinton like Trump received less than 50% of the vote so more than 50% of voters wanted someone else.
I don’t see your point here. Australian electorates are standardised by population, except NT, so the number of rural electorates is proportional to the relative population.
At the moment, with the Government having a small majority, the Nats have more power in decision making by the Government. They loose this as soon as the Libs increase their majority or Labor win Government.
Your concerns I think are more as result of the quirks in the electoral cycle than structural problems in the system.