BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  2. Donald Trump is likely to tear up Australia’s refugee resettlement deal with the United States unless the US gets something significant in return, an American immigration expert has warned.

    My American girlfriend from Europe Backpacker Days in the 1970s phoned me yesterday. She lives in Palo Alto, and is a vehement Hilary and Democrat supporter.

    I advised her that, what with Turnbull’s tendency to stuff-up nearly everything he touches (by inattention, making schemes too complicated, or just plain political klutziness), and with the pressure that will be on Trump to deliver on his immigration promises, the Nauru-Manus Boats Deal will form into a perfect storm, a textbook case of too little, too late for us and political symbolism for the Trump administration… around about Christmas, if not before.

    She hadn’t heard anything about Manus or Nauru, of course. Americans live in their bubble after all. But I reckon she will.

    This is just the kind of over-complicated deal that “Geniuses” like Turnbull go for, so they can show off their brilliance. But it is too contingent, it has too many points of potential failure:

    * Not enough time between now and the Inauguration for the deal to mature (because of dithering around waiting for Hilary to get elected so that the Wedge could be better applied – what could possibly have gone wrong?),

    * The insistence on Labor supporting the unrelated matter of permanent exclusion,

    * The reliance on America to keep records as to who-was-on-what-island-when, forever, effectively creating a new class of citizenship over there (but not here),

    * The utterly forseeable consequences of tinkering with the Senate cross bench, via the unnecessary Double Dissolution and changes to the Senate voting rules,

    * Petulantly insulting those same cross-benchers, and then expecting them to co-operate,

    * Thinking that “The Turnbull Charm” could even attract Trump’s attention, much less change his mind.

    I can see this one going bigon both sides of the Pacific, as the perfect ideological symbol of all that Trump stands for over there, and all that Turnbull stands for over here.

    It is shaping to be a fuck-up of monumental proportions.

    But then again, Turnbull’s in charge, with Dutton doing the gofering. What else could we possibly expect?

    Once again, all Bill Shorten has to do is sit back and actually do nothing.

  3. PO – I’m fascinated by how Julie Bishop is firming up as the alternative leader (at least in Essential) when the poor dear obviously doesn’t want the job (and knows she’s not up to the job).

  4. The ABC and “elite media” are to blame for distracting people from the government’s focus on economic growth, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said,

    Like Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull thinks the ABC’s job is to promulgate and boost the Government’s agenda without question.

    Re Haemachromatosis, I won’t question the medical people here. It just came to mind because I recall reading that John Boehner, who has that odd, orange-tinted complexion, had it. I read that in the media, so maybe I should take that with a grain of salt. I recall that the condition is sometimes called ‘bronze diabetes’. At one stage my doctor thought I migt have had it, but it turned out to be normal type 2, probably brought on by being fat, eating too much, an over fondness for beer and an under fondness for exercise.

  6. antonbruckner11 @ #903 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:13 pm

    PO – I’m fascinated by how Julie Bishop is firming up as the alternative leader (at least in Essential) when the poor dear obviously doesn’t want the job (and knows she’s not up to the job).

    Just lack of alternatives, I think. Bishop is a bit nasty, but is actually more acceptable than the rest of the front bench. Also, it’s been a while since she has done anything particularly brutal.

  7. imaxxxxxandivote @ #874 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    Dan Gulberry
    Check out Nate Silver’s 538 site. On there he has analysis showing if 1/100 voters turned to Clinton from Trump the outcome of the electoral college would have fallen in Hillary’s favour. I would assume something similar would have happened if the small percentage of Green voters directed their votes to her.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/
    Cheers

    There’s a big difference between voters turning away from Trump and voters who didn’t vote for him.

    If Stein voters had turned to Hilary, Trump would’ve still got the same number of votes. Only if the number of Stein voters were bigger than the difference between Clinton and Trump would it have altered the result.

    To use a simple analogy:

    There are 10 voters.

    3 don’t bother voting at all.
    4 vote for Trump;
    2 vote for Clinton;
    1 votes for Stein.

    Trump still wins even if all of Stein’s voters vote for Clinton instead.

    This is why I asked for data on how many Stein voter there were, and how many votes Clinton lost to Trump by. If the number of voters Clinton lost by is bigger than the number of total votes for Stein, then it wouldn’t have made a scrap of difference if Stein voters had voted for Clinton instead. Trump would still win, albeit by a smaller margin.

  8. P1

    Okay, so how much warming are you willing to put up with before you decide to invest? 3 degrees? 4 degrees? Because it’s more important to save money, right?

    Good point – but I am planning a system and working out how to finance it. You can get the power company to put in solar and batteries, but I don’t want to be beholden to them forever.
    Action on climate change is both more fair and more effective if it is achieved through a national policy rather than simply down to individuals.

  9. Well, well… is this an alternative theory as to why Colin Winchester was murdered?

    Pasquale was also understood to have been giving evidence to police about his brothers’ involvement in Operation Seville, in which drugs were grown at Bungendore with the sanction of an ACT assistant police commissioner, Colin Winchester, who was later murdered.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/the-inevitable-demise-of-sydney-crime-figure-pasquale-barbaro-20161114-gspdd1.html

  11. There’s no point even having JBish on the list for prefered Liberal Leader. She is the only one of that bunch smart enough to not push for the top job.

    When you’ve got a good permanent job you enjoy, you don’t take the risk of moving to a 3 month contract position that is less enjoyable, but has slightly higher pay.

    Good to see the Coalition down at the same primary as Labor.

  12. Jobs & Growth? Yawn.

    If you want to see an example of politicians divorced from economic reality, you could do worse than Malcolm Turnbull last week.

    The prime minister was asked by 3AW’s Neil Mitchell whether he related to Australia voters, to which the prime minister responded by arguing he did because it was his job and “what Australians want to see from their government is strong leadership, in particular strong economic growth”.

    When asked if that message was getting through, Turnbull replied: “Well Neil we have to look at the facts. We have 3.3% real GDP growth.”

    If you eyes are not rolling by now, they should be.

    Another great example was given by the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop.

    When asked by ABC’s Virginia Trioli about the policy lessons for Australia from Trump’s victory, Bishop talked of the impact of the GFC in the United States and then noted, “of course, Australia didn’t go through a recession, Australia has had 25 consecutive years of economic growth”.

    …
    Are we really to believe that talking up GDP growth is a winning argument? Are we to believe people will care that the unemployment rate is below 6% when full-time jobs are actually falling?

    Economic data is very useful for alerting us to what is going on in the economy, but right now the big numbers are mostly good for making politicians who reflexively repeat them seem like they haven’t a clue what life is like for most Australians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/15/harping-on-about-economic-growth-makes-politicians-seem-out-of-touch

  14. Haemochromatosis can cause skin colour changes but it’s more bronzed/grey in colour (and not common coz it gets diagnosed on blood tests). Trump released his medical records and he doesn’t have it.
    Hypervitaminosis A can cause orange skin. I had a colleague at med school who turned up bright orange after the summer holidays from obsessively eating carrots, which turned out to be his first manifestation of schizophrenia.

  15. Trog

    Action on climate change is both more fair and more effective if it is achieved through a national policy rather than simply down to individuals.

    Just like charity, saving the planet starts at home.

  17. From the article on 457’s that Guytaur linked

    Taking another leaf from the Trump campaign playbook, the Prime Minister repeatedly targeted the “elite media” for distracting from a focus on economic growth and jobs.

    Absolutely hilarious!

  18. Just like charity, saving the planet starts at home.

    It’s a great pity that we aren’t treating Global Warming lie the enemy it is.
    Watching “Home Fires” on ABC I’m reminded that everyone was expected to “do their bit” to defeat Hitler.

    Does it need a world catastrophe to wake people up?

  20. Stats may indicate this was the worst batting performance across both innings by Australia since 1912 which lends itself to some Titanic references

  21. Does Labor REALLY want this walking, wobbling parody associated with it?

    You bet! The more defections from Turnbull’s camp the better!
    The 457 Visa is on the nose. Christensen can just smell meat from a mile away. : )

  22. C@tmomma Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:48 pm
    Christensen can just smell meat from a mile away. : )

    *****************************************

    From the size of him he can EAT meat from a mile away ….

  24. BK,
    By making the comment that you have you are making the mistake that the Democrats did in the election. They played the man and not the ball. So Trump sucked up the disaffected voters like a sponge.

    It’s the issue that’s important, not the politicians. It’s the voters that are important, not the politicians that jump on the bandwagon of an issue that they can see is biting in their electorate.

  26. lizzie @ #918 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:45 pm

    It’s a great pity that we aren’t treating Global Warming lie the enemy it is.
    Watching “Home Fires” on ABC I’m reminded that everyone was expected to “do their bit” to defeat Hitler.

    Does it need a world catastrophe to wake people up?

    Good point. Neoliberalism has tried to convince us that economics can provide the solutions to all difficult problems, and can do so at minimal personal cost. We are no longer familiar with the concept of personal responsibility.

  30. Renewable energy has always had strong public support. And yet around the world people are electing governments that don’t support it. So somewhere along the line there’s a problem with the message.

  31. TURNBULL WAROOM
    1: Hey! why don’t we try that Trump thing where we slag off the media?
    2: Slag off Murdoch! Are you nuts?
    1: How about just the ABC and something called the media “elite” ?
    2: Do you think it will work on swinging voters?
    1: It will work a treat on the base. Can’t have too much of that.
    2: I like it! I’ll see if I can work it into my top hat and cane routine.

  32. Fat George can see the 457 Visas are an electoral killer. Time for Malcolm to announce an inquiry.

    Maybe George prefers to be called ‘cuddly’. But it seems unlikely that unions, Labor or Bill Shorten are behind any abuse of 457 visas, so there won’t be any inquiry.

  33. Trog

    Global warming is already a world catastrophe.

    Of course it is, but it’s simply not visible to most people. Especially those whose happiness relies on more and more profit. It’s just “a warm day”, or “haven’t had any luck fishing lately”.

  34. STEVE777 – Malcolm has to kick the can down the road somehow, because this is an electoral steam-roller. Christensen is twice as smart as Turnbull, and he realises that.

  36. Bonza

    So somewhere along the line there’s a problem with the message.

    The message has been delivered by the fossil fuel oligarchy which, apart from spreading lies, is probably the largest source of funds to political parties.

  37. Dan G
    I get the maths…here’s some further maths for you to ponder….about 1.6 million voted green…this represented about 1% of the vote…in some of the swing states (Michigan (16) , Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Florida (29)) the gap between Clinton and Trump was about 1% or less. If the Green vote in these states was about the same as US % or just a little higher, these states would have been taken by Clinton. Thus the electoral college would have gone to Clinton.
    Cheers

  38. QUESTION – Hah. Turnbull complaining about the ABC’s fixation with beltway issues is, in itself, a beltway issue. Shorten has cut right through with 457 Visas.

  39. Re Lizzie @12:45PM: “It’s a great pity that we aren’t treating Global Warming (like) the enemy it is.

    Watching “Home Fires” on ABC I’m reminded that everyone was expected to “do their bit” to defeat Hitler.

    Does it need a world catastrophe to wake people up?”

    Probably.

    I recall someone saying back in the 70s thatwe need the “Moral equivalent of a war” to tackle the world’s then problems. Then, more recently, we had the “War on Terror”.

    Maybe we should start calling for a “War on Warming”. Right wingers like wars and martial references.

  40. leroy lynch @ #923 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:51 pm

    Essential federal poll
    TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
    Primary ALP 37(0) L/NP 37(-1) GRN 11(+1) NXT 3(0) ON 6(0) OTH 6(0)
    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Essential-Report_161115.pdf

    Mal’s really in trouble (as if we didn’t know). I think only rounding has saved them from losing another point (i.e. to 54-46). They could get there in the next week or so, especially if the “Green Cards For Refugees” scheme unravels.

    And right before the ‘killing season’. How sad!

  42. Was the Labor and LNP primary ever the same under Tony’s regime?

    Maybe the Liberals and Nationals are leaking votes to a revitalised One Nation (on 6%), along with other fringe right wing groups, plus a few more in the Centre to the Xenophones (3%).

  43. The libs are now suffering “anything for a poll bump” mania, which never ends well. They usually end up dealing with someone like Gordon Gretch.

  44. @ Player One – the 2 dp readings using 2016 election preferences from those primaries would have been

    47.42 last week.

    46.60 this week.

  45. imaxxxxxandivote @ #962 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:02 pm

    If the Green vote in these states was about the same as US % or just a little higher, these states would have been taken by Clinton. Thus the electoral college would have gone to Clinton.
    Cheers

    The operative word there being “if”. I would like to see some empirical evidence that backs that up. If anyone can show raw data that supports the hypothesis, I will gladly accept it. Until then, it remains speculation.

    In the meantime, there is important work needed to make sure Trump only serves one term as President, if that.

    To waste time speculating on “what ifs” is a distraction away from that cause.

  46. The libs are now suffering “anything for a poll bump” mania, which never ends well. They usually end up dealing with someone like Gordon Gretch.

    What happened to all that important DD stuff?

    Now they are struggling to think of things to take to parliament.

  49. I can tell you I despise 457 Visas. I have seen good, honest hard-working Australians at the local 24 Hour Petrol Station and Mini Mart be replaced over the last couple of years by Indian 457 Visa holders! One after another after another.

    Middle Aged ladies like myself used to work during the week and the local kids would work on the weekends when they had their days off. No more. All replaced in one fell swoop.

    My tolerance for this sort of thing only goes so far. Even up to a 50/50 split between 457 Visa holders and locals. But no, the new, also Indian, Franchisees want to wring every last cent of profit from the place and also give the jobs to those they prefer. Also, who knows what sort of arrangements they have in place with the new workers to charge them fees for this and that, instead of paying them their due, as they would with workers who are locals.

    I don’t like it. And I don’t think I have to either. As one thing I do know, they don’t have much respect for us and call us ‘Lozzies'(Lazy Aussies), behind our backs. When we just get Work/Life Balance and they don’t.

    Of course I don’t think that I am falling into the trap of identifying with Pauline Bloody Hanson over this. Her positions on the issues are just too extreme. However, I do think we need to get the balance right here as a nation wrt this issue.

  50. Very comforting to see that there is no support for the Coalition’s push to silence environmental groups.

    What other issues have Essential ever found with more than 5:1 agree to disagree? Even “Do you agree that kittens are adorable?” had some disagreement from the hardcore dog supporter bloc.

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