BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The gap between Labor and the Coalition widens in this week’s poll aggregate reading, on the strength of similar results from Newspoll and Essential Research.

Bit late with this one due to the distractions of last week, but the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records discernible movement to Labor after a period of stasis, with both Newspoll and Essential Research recording 53-47 leads to Labor. Labor is up three on the seat projection, with gains in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Both pollsters produced leadership ratings this week, but they haven’t made much difference to the relevant aggregates.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Anyone seen this …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-15/what-is-a-457-visa/8026280

    I’m not trying to make a racist point here, but when you see this type of statistic …

    The largest number of workers come from India (26.8 per cent) ….

    … then you have to wonder if 547 visas are really filling “job vacancies which are difficult to find Australians for”. What specific skills do Indians in particular bring to these positions that we don’t have here?

  2. QUESTION – It’s not as if the Libs have any policies that would pull them out of this poll slide. Indeed, they’re still carrying on with tax cuts for multinationals. They are just nuts. Malcolm thought he was protecting his job by pandering to the right. In fact, he’s destroying it.

  3. player one @ #1002 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    Anyone seen this …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-15/what-is-a-457-visa/8026280

    I’m not trying to make a racist point here, but when you see this type of statistic …

    The largest number of workers come from India (26.8 per cent) ….

    … then you have to wonder if 547 visas are really filling “job vacancies which are difficult to find Australians for”. What specific skills do Indians in particular bring to these positions that we don’t have here?

    Subservience?

  4. Trog
    “The message has been delivered by the fossil fuel oligarchy which, apart from spreading lies, is probably the largest source of funds to political parties.”

    The next question is; when this fact is brought to the public’s attention, why doesn’t it cut through? Why doesn’t something so serious become a deal-breaker for a swinging voter?

  5. Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    10m10 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp says ‘the problem in Australia is that people are getting no wage rises’ #auspol http://snpy.tv/2fRkXJL

    9

    5

    Sky News Australia
    18m18 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp on toughening of visa rules says ‘@TurnbullMalcolm needs to recognise what Australians want’ #auspol http://snpy.tv/2fU1vOq

  6. As I recall, 457 vizas (or something similar) were introduced in the Keating years to make it easier for overseas companies to bring in their own management staff and specialists for particular assignments. That made sense. They were not intended to alow companies and fanchisees to bypass the Australian labour market and Australian awards and work relations laws.

    There is plenty of anecdotal evidence for the abuse of 457 visas. These visas should only be issued in cases where it can be demonstrtated that workers with the required skills are not available in Australia, or workers who could be easily trained up for a role.

  7. Player One Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    … then you have to wonder if 547 visas are really filling “job vacancies which are difficult to find Australians for”. What specific skills do Indians in particular bring to these positions that we don’t have here?

    ************************************************
    I lived a part of my life in California – and it was obvious that these “Fuckin’ Mexicans” ( something I heard every day ) were doing all the farm work, street sweeping, garbage collecting, housemaids etc etc jobs – in other words the shit/underpaid work that most native Californians were unlikey to do ….. so to some degree its the same analogy.
    They say that if Trump deports these people California’s economy will collapse overnight

    ALSO in todays news :

    Fruit supplier to Coles and Woolworths using illegal foreign workers

    Dozens of illegal labourers on the farms said they were being underpaid by about $9 an hour to pick and package fresh produce that ends up being sold by Australia’s big supermarkets.

    Mr Hasam entered Australia on a short-term visa which did not permit him to work, but he had no problem finding a job after landing in Australia late last month.

    After working 23 hours over several days, Mr Hasam was paid $110, which was reduced to $40 after $70 rent was taken out.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-15/fruit-supplier-to-coles-woolworths-using-illegal-foreign-workers/8023570

  8. ‘Like Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull thinks the ABC’s job is to promulgate and boost the Government’s agenda without question.’

    So does the ABC most of the time.
    Michael Brissenden’s interview with Josh Frydenberg was a low point, even for him. Apologetically asking the most pathetically soft questions, and just letting him bullshit on.
    There is simply no excuse for such servility.

  9. Bonza

    “The message has been delivered by the fossil fuel oligarchy which, apart from spreading lies, is probably the largest source of funds to political parties.”

    The next question is; when this fact is brought to the public’s attention, why doesn’t it cut through? Why doesn’t something so serious become a deal-breaker for a swinging voter

    Something to do with the horse called Self Interest. Economics cuts through. Very little else does.

  10. ‘I can tell you I despise 457 Visas. I have seen good, honest hard-working Australians at the local 24 Hour Petrol Station and Mini Mart be replaced over the last couple of years by Indian 457 Visa holders! One after another after another.’

    No you haven’t. 457 visas are for skilled workers, not petrol pump attendants.
    They’ve probably been replaced by students or working holiday visa holders. Except in your fantasy world most Australian think that such jobs are beneath them.

  11. PD – I have no doubt you are right. There are lots of crappy jobs it would be hard to get Australian kids to do (that’s why backpackers pick fruit). But there are also lots of trade jobs, shop jobs, etc, where Australians could work where, I understand, foreign labour is used. The IT sector is a classic example.

  12. BK – “Rodney Marsh? Nice knowing you!”
    Maybe alongside Cricket Australia’s Executive General Manager Team Performance? That’s a lovely title, but we all know him as Pat Howard (remember the India 2013 debacle?)
    Or the newly selected (4 year contract) batting coach. Graham Hick. Hick was until recently Cricket Australia’s High Performance Coach at the National Cricket Centre.

  13. No you haven’t. 457 visas are for skilled workers, not petrol pump attendants.
    They’ve probably been replaced by students or working holiday visa holders.

    Except 457 holders are doing these jobs, because there is large-scale fraud going on, in addition to the violations of student and holiday visa holders.

    Except in your fantasy world most Australian think that such jobs are beneath them.

    Not getting it, are you?

  14. antonbruckner11 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    PD – I have no doubt you are right. There are lots of crappy jobs it would be hard to get Australian kids to do (that’s why backpackers pick fruit). But there are also lots of trade jobs, shop jobs, etc, where Australians could work where, I understand, foreign labour is used. The IT sector is a classic example.

    ***********************************
    antonbruckner – Jon Faine was going on about this the other day mentioning a whole host of needless jobs open to 457 visas – and yes he questioned IT as you say …. as well as hairdressers etc etc ….. a whole raft of jobs that could well be filled by Aussies ….. well not those with a swag of kids getting 45-50K in welfare payments anyways …..

  15. There are lots of crappy jobs it would be hard to get Australian kids to do (that’s why backpackers pick fruit). But there are also lots of trade jobs, shop jobs, etc, where Australians could work where, I understand, foreign labour is used.

    Then the businesses that do employ local labour, and give them honest wages and entitlements, are screwed into the ground by competition from less scrupulous operations.

    How the hell do you get a meal for $6.50 and haircut for $10 if everyone is being paid what they deserve?

  16. adrian @ #1015 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    ‘I can tell you I despise 457 Visas. I have seen good, honest hard-working Australians at the local 24 Hour Petrol Station and Mini Mart be replaced over the last couple of years by Indian 457 Visa holders! One after another after another.’
    No you haven’t. 457 visas are for skilled workers, not petrol pump attendants.
    They’ve probably been replaced by students or working holiday visa holders. Except in your fantasy world most Australian think that such jobs are beneath them.

    I think you are right there Adrian, both from what I have read and personal observation.

    A typical scenario that has been documented for a number of companies in Australia is that they are approached to outsource their IT requirements to a foreign based company offering to take over and staff their whole IT operation for a much cheaper price.
    The Australian workers then train those who are going to take over their jobs.
    Th Aussies are offered a position in the foreign outsourcer at a pay cut of maybe 40% or its out the door.
    The foreign nationals brought in on 457 or other dodgy visas are exploited as they are expected to work 10 hours a day, 6 or 7 days a week and be paid less than the going Australian rates.
    The whole rotten business model needs to be smashed.

  17. That’s a lovely title, but we all know him as Pat Howard (remember the India 2013 debacle?)

    I remember his piss-poor decision making at fly-half, for sure.

    There are calls for your namesake to get on the national selection panel.

  18. The ABC article states the biggest group are “cooks”.
    Easy to hide the dogsbodies in that group.
    Any stats on all the other visa groups like 417?

  19. Jeez, it blows me away that only 3% of the population think that ScoMo would be the best liberal leader. Six times as many think the clothes horse would be better. I mean, ScoMo is the Treasurer. You’d think he would have developed some sort of following. that is appalling.

  20. LU, Pat Howard at No10 isnt worth remembering.

    As for unscrupulous employers… companies do not just want enough workers around to fill positions, they want an overabundance of workers in order to drive the ‘productivity’ of their staff. Employers are confused; forcing staff to accept lower wages and conditions due to competition isnt really productive. Furthermore, in many sectors it’s capital (and the executive class) that is unproductive, not workers.

  21. Thank you for contacting the ABC with your concerns about the reporting by the ABC’s political editor, Chris Uhlmann, on the power outage in South Australia. Please accept my apology for the delay in responding to you.

    Your complaint has been referred to Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit which is separate to and independent of content making areas within the ABC.

    We have generally considered Mr Uhlmann’s reports and articles on the power outage in South Australia, including as the story was breaking. We note that his reports and articles did not blame renewable energy for the power outage. Rather, they covered a range of issues including South Australia’s power generation mix and its operational status; some of the complexities associated with South Australia’s power grid; the political decision making that lead to South Australia’s energy mix; and the operation of the national electricity market. These issues, including Mr Uhlmann’s questioning around whether the State’s heavy reliance on wind turbines might have increased the risk of a state-wide blackout, were all highly relevant and newsworthy in the context of South Australia’s unprecedented power outage.

    We note that as events unfolded, the ABC provided extensive coverage on the blackout, including through the live broadcast of interviews and press conferences with South Australia’s Premier, Jay Weatherill; interviews with the Federal Energy Minister, Josh Frydenberg; and rolling direct reports from various ABC journalists across South Australia. Mr Uhlmann continued to provide analysis from a largely political perspective.

    Thank you again for contacting the ABC and please be assured that your comments have been noted by Audience and Consumer Affairs.

     

    Yours sincerely

     

    Elizabeth Steer

    Audience and Consumer Affairs

    Evidently from what I am told by other people who complained ,the standard proforma letter.

     

  22. ‘Not getting it, are you?’

    I think it’s you who are not getting it, but hey, ignorance is never an excuse to have an opinion around here or anywhere else.

  23. I suspect one of the big problems with 457 visas is the problem with many government activities these days – THERE IS NO PROPER ENFORCEMENT ARM. Employers can say what they like on their applications and no one ever checks. Still less does anyone actually go and check at the employer’s premises. The whole philosophy of “light touch” regulation is fatally flawed. Just occasionally a reporter gets on to it or someone who isn’t totally cowed by the system complains and there is a bit of a blow-up for a while. But then everything settles back into the same old way of doing things.

  24. SK – A haircut should only cost $10, but they do all the flouncing around with the hair-drier and the razor. No, I don’t want my eyebrows trimmed. A reasonably competent barber should be able to do it in 5 minutes or less.

  25. @ Simon – my barbers (Melbourne CBD) charge $10. Each barber probably brings in $60 an hour of revenue at that price, and they always have all of their chairs full, so no down time.

  26. Adrian,
    No you haven’t. 457 visas are for skilled workers, not petrol pump attendants.
    They’ve probably been replaced by students or working holiday visa holders. Except in your fantasy world most Australian think that such jobs are beneath them.

    That’s complete and utter rubbish. If you had carefully read what I wrote you would have read the part where I said that local kids, who DID want to do the jobs and WERE doing the jobs, overnight were replaced by these Visa holders to do the exact same job.
    Same goes for the middle-aged ladies that were doing the job during the week. They loved the job, they WANTED to keep the job! They were replaced holus bolus by Indian Visa holders. Whose faces behind the counter keep changing every few months.

    Sorry but the fantasy seems to be in your head. Aussie locals were doing the jobs. They got shafted. There is nothing hard about what they were doing. Selling a few Roast Chooks. Taking money for petrol. Making fish and chips. Jobs that have been happily done by locals forever.

    If you can’t see what is wrong with this whole situation then look at the example given right above you by PhoenixRed at 1.45pm (and, yes, it refers to fruit-picking but there are more similarities than differences to what I’m talking about):

    After working 23 hours over several days, Mr Hasam was paid $110, which was reduced to $40 after $70 rent was taken out.

    These people are paid a certain amount but the Rent Seekers, literally, are taking most of the money these people earn back and so they are profiting massively as a result and Australians who used to have these jobs are the big losers.

  27. “We note that his reports and articles did not blame renewable energy for the power outage.”
    Ulhmanns Headline…
    ** SA storms: Rushing to renewable energy targets puts sector’s reputation at risk **
    He then points out a range of problems with wind power (did you know they dont produce power when there is no wind? Really, they dont!). Then he says…
    “The fragility of South Australia’s electricity supply with the rise of renewables is an open secret.”

    So the ABC argue Ulhmanns articles were from a political perspective? They were quasi-technology articles designed for a political purpose. That sort of ‘political perspective’ should be kept for News.com and Fox News.

  28. How the hell do you get a meal for $6.50 and haircut for $10 if everyone is being paid what they deserve?

    Who pays these prices? Mens haircuts cost about $20, your basic pub/club meal or takeaway is about $10 – $20.

  29. voice endeavour @ #1058 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 2:26 pm

    @ Simon – my barbers (Melbourne CBD) charge $10. Each barber probably brings in $60 an hour of revenue at that price, and they always have all of their chairs full, so no down time.

    Wow! Where is that barber?

    Years ago I used to work near a hairdressing college and along with a few colleagues used to go there for a haircut. I forget what it cost or if they even charged at all.
    Students were closely supervised and the instructor could always step in if needed so I never got a bad haircut.
    The only drawback was the students were slow so it took a long time.

  30. In the important stuff, Oz cricket is merely reflecting the times……….the short game pays for the long game; the pay for mediocre cricketers, and the need for a lot of them to make the competition work, makes the short form of the game more important to them and the cricket establishment than any other form; batsmen have become so used to batting on dead, three-day-old wickets tailor made for the short game (and the short game cannot afford to have sided bundled out in under three hours) and when faced with any kind of wicket that is not as easy as can be, just go to pieces; and, in this dumb down world with attention spans of most people that of a gnat, Test cricket and playing for a country is not seen as all that important.
    Finally, the current batch of Oz cricketers, by and large, are pea week, lack the ability and temperament to fight it out and fancy themselves above their capabilities.
    Our loss against the Jaapies should come as no surprise and we would struggle to beat Bangladesh at the moment. Oh, I forgot the Poms got done by Bangladesh in any event…….

  31. Anton. No hairdryer at these barbers. No beer and no interesting magazines.

    Nice looking girls at some of the hairdressers nearby charge about the same. Its a no brainer.

    BK – I look really silly with a No1 so not an option. I just keep it to 2 cuts a year. Spring and summer. The extra insulation in winter is welcome.

  32. There are 1,000,000 underemployed; there are around 700,000 unemployed; there are are uncounted thousands who have left the labour market altogether; there are around 800,000 foreigners working in Australia; and, there are around 60,000 illegal migrants working in Australia.
    A large proportion of the systemic abuse of workers by bosses involves people who sit somewhere in these numbers.
    It astonished me that Labor did not go for the jugular on the issues surrounding these numbers these during the last election. I urged them so to do, but they had more pressing priorities, apparently.

    Since the election there has been a huge transfer of jobs from the full-time column to the part-time column in the structure of the workforce.
    Total hours worked looks sick. Real wages for large numbers of people have gone backwards.
    If it has taken Trump to wake Labor from this slumber, excellent. Maybe Trog and Dan were right along to support the Greens and the Progressives doing their best to support Tump.

    Oh, and I second Dio: Catherine King ought to pull her finger out and get stuck into the skin cancer raid on Medicare by Ley/Turnbull.

    Not Mediscare: the Real Thing.

  33. antonbruckner11 @ #1025 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    Jeez, it blows me away that only 3% of the population think that ScoMo would be the best liberal leader. Six times as many think the clothes horse would be better. I mean, ScoMo is the Treasurer. You’d think he would have developed some sort of following. that is appalling.

    I think you are being too kind.

    ScoMo is a smartarse, and that type is never liked in Oz.

  34. $10 haircut ?!?!?!?!?
    The barbers around here charge $30. Cash only.

    Ok, I exaggerated a bit, but you can get a trim, with scissors not clippers, on King St Newtown for $12-15. Cash, of course.

  35. @ bemused – From Flinders St station, walk north up Elizabeth st and it will be on your left. If you reach M Central Station you’ve gone too far.

  36. antonbruckner11 @ #903 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:13 pm

    PO – I’m fascinated by how Julie Bishop is firming up as the alternative leader (at least in Essential) when the poor dear obviously doesn’t want the job (and knows she’s not up to the job).

    I think Bishop would be the perfect leader for this mob.
    She is relatively inoffensive.
    She inspires low expectations.
    She has no strong ideological baggage making her a perfect front for the RWNJs.
    The big question mark is her ability to perform in the Parliament.

  37. adrian @ #1015 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    ‘I can tell you I despise 457 Visas. I have seen good, honest hard-working Australians at the local 24 Hour Petrol Station and Mini Mart be replaced over the last couple of years by Indian 457 Visa holders! One after another after another.’
    No you haven’t. 457 visas are for skilled workers, not petrol pump attendants.
    They’ve probably been replaced by students or working holiday visa holders. Except in your fantasy world most Australian think that such jobs are beneath them.

    It’s true that these are not 457 visa holders. These people tend to be on building sites, in restaurants and other such places where a degree of skill is required. The petrol station attendants and fruit pickers and the like are students (mainly in the city), working holiday makers (in rural areas) and tourist visa holders. They are preferred over Australian born employees mainly because they can be really badly ripped off and they won’t know who to complain to or are otherwise vulnerable to being thrown out of the country if their circumstances are known. So they are effectively trapped in situations where they are so much cheaper than Australians.

  38. ajm @ #1056 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 2:25 pm

    I suspect one of the big problems with 457 visas is the problem with many government activities these days – THERE IS NO PROPER ENFORCEMENT ARM. Employers can say what they like on their applications and no one ever checks. Still less does anyone actually go and check at the employer’s premises. The whole philosophy of “light touch” regulation is fatally flawed. Just occasionally a reporter gets on to it or someone who isn’t totally cowed by the system complains and there is a bit of a blow-up for a while. But then everything settles back into the same old way of doing things.

    Exactly

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