I’ve been a bit tardy updating BludgerTrack this week, but as you can see below, you haven’t been missing much. The moral of the story is that a single Essential Research result is unlikely to change much under the new set-up, particularly when, as present, it accounts for 16 out of 20 available data points. Things may be different when, presumably, Newspoll comes along either tonight or tomorrow night. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Keep reading below the fold for a whole bunch of material on party games, and also note that there’s a separate post below this one for presidential election discussion.
Other news:
• The Victorian branch of the ALP last week signed off on Kimberley Kitching as Stephen Conroy’s Senate replacement, following the Right faction warlord’s surprise retirement announcement in mid-September. Kitching is a lawyer with Cornwall Stodart, and was formerly a Melbourne City councillor and general manager of the troubled Health Services Union. The royal commission into trade union corruption recommended charges be pursued against Kitching relating to allegations she completed tests for workplace entry permits on behalf of union organisers, but none have been forthcoming in the two years since. Kitching was effectively unopposed in the vote by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, as factional arrangements reserve the seat for the Right. She had won the Right’s backing ahead of Diana Taylor, former Clayton Utz lawyer and a director at the Geelong Football Club, who had support from Richard Marles, federal front-bencher and member for Corio. According to the Herald Sun, other nominees included “Warrnambool city councillor Jacinta Ermacora, former state member for Benalla Denise Allan, Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and 2010 Young Victorian of the Year Wesa Chau”.
Kitching and her husband, Andrew Landeryou – whose VexNews blog trod on many a toe until he retired it in 2013 out of deference to his wife’s political ambitions – are both close to Bill Shorten. Reports have identified widespread criticism of Shorten’s actions within the party from mostly unidentified sources, although Anthony Albanese declined an opportunity to endorse Kitching, saying her preselection was “a matter for the Victorian branch”. Albanese also said there was “a case for ensuring that members have votes in Senate pre-selections” – true of the his own branch in New South Wales, but not in Victoria. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that a Left-sponsored motion at the Victorian party’s state conference next month will propose “giving members a greater say in Senate preselections”.
Labor sources quoted by Katherine Murphy of The Guardian claim Shorten’s backing for Kitching was motivated by a desire to harness HSU numbers as he seeks to plug the gap in his factional network created by Conroy’s departure. James Campbell of the Herald Sun earlier reported that the sudden exit of Conroy was causing ructions in the Right, owing to a power-sharing agreement that had been reached between the secretaries of the Australian Workers Union, National Union of Workers, Transport Workers Union and the power bloc associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It was understood at the time that the TWU vote was a proxy for the broader Conroy group, but it now stood to fall entirely to the union’s secretary, John Berger, leaving Conroy’s other allies out in the cold. Berger’s favoured candidate was Bill Baarini, TWU union officer and former mayor of Hobsons Bay, but Shorten concurred with a view that this would violate the party’s affirmative action rules.
• Further argybargy is unfolding in the Victorian ALP courtesy of a Left faction split between the “National Left”, associated with Anthony Albanese, and the breakaway “Industrial Left” of Victorian Senator Kim Carr. This was formalised after the election when a Left majority resolved to dump Carr from the front bench in favour of Linda Burney, the former New South Wales deputy state leader and newly elected member for Barton. Bill Shorten ensured Carr was accommodated by expanding the front bench, reflecting the importance of the “stability pact” between Carr and the Shorten-Conroy axis in managing affairs the Victorian branch’s affairs. However, the split meant Carr ally Gavin Marshall no longer had Left support to retain his position as Deputy President in the Senate, which has instead gone to Sue Lines from Western Australia.
Marshall last week foreshadowed preselections against Victorian members of the National Left, who include two shadow cabinet members in Jenny Macklin (Jagajaga) and Catherine King (Ballarat) and a junior front-bencher, Andrew Giles (Scullin). As James Massola of Fairfax reports, Marshall confirmed he was organising a challenge to Giles, although no candidate has been identified; claimed there was “discontent in Ballarat”, and that it was a “possibility” he would back a challenge to King; and suggested Macklin could be sure of being spared only because it was “well known that she is retiring”, which a spokesperson for Macklin denied.
• Bob Day, Family First Senator from South Australia, announced last week he would resign from his position after his home building group went into liquidation. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Day hopes to be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, Rikki Lambert, who shares his zeal for a pro-business line on workplace relations. However, he faces opposition from Robert Brokenshire, a Liberal-turned-Family First member of the state parliament, and perhaps also Lucy Gichuhi, a Kenyan-born lawyer who was Day’s running mate at the July 2 election.
• A motion moved by Tony Abbott at yesterday’s state council meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party calling for democratised preselections was reportedly defeated by 246 votes to 174. This was pursued despite the concurrence of Malcolm Turnbull and Mike Baird that the proposed measure should feature among a range of reforms to be considered at a party convention next year, to which state council agreed. Abbott’s proposal would involve plebiscites of party members for all preselections, which is broadly favoured by the party’s hard Right and opposed by the centre Right and the moderates, since it would diminish the importance of the latter’s control of the state executive.
• A poll conducted by Research Now last month for the Australia Institute asked 1426 respondents to list their first and second favoured options for the government to negotiate with in getting legislation through the Senate, which found 54% rating Labor first or second compared with 42% for the Nick Xenophon Team, 32% for the Greens and 29$ for One Nation.
From the Constitution – a little clarification
44 Disqualification
Any person who:…
(iii) is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent…
shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a senator or a member of the House of Representatives.
An undischarged bankrupt is a person going through the process of bankruptcy.
Ajm
Thank you.
I sense the current Federal government is not going all that well, but 55-45 to Labor by Morgan is stretching it a bit?
Mind you, the MSM all but ignores the polls currently which is in stark contrast to the stuff dished up when Gillard had her very thin majority. Almost as soon as Newspoll was out in them days, and if the polls did not look that good for Labor, the “news” was shouted from the house tops….usually with dire predictions of Labor being “wiped out” at the next election. Funny, how, now, with the Turnbull government with barely a majority and scraping its backside in the gravel, the MSM seems MIA. I await the 6 am news from the ABC when this kind of stuff used to be a lead item. I sense it will be a long wait.
T
The Newspolls get reasonable coverage still, IMO.
Boerwar
Perhaps a lawyer familiar with Day’s situation should complain to the Senate President? Or a losing candidate in the last Senate election might try Court? Day pipped Labor’s Anne McEwan here in SA.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-02/election-2016:-bob-day-re-elected-senate-south-australia-family/7681934
S
It would not do her any good, IMO. Whenever and however he goes, he will almost certainly be replaced by a Family First person.
Boerwar,
I think I understand. You are deliberately rude to her. She cuts you. So now she is thin-skinned.
OTOH, if she had not cut you, you would still be piling on the petty japes and insults because that is part of your job description for her.
Do give me a break.
Interesting attempt to misconstrue what I was attempting to convey, ie a light-hearted comment on the matter, in order to post a jaundiced riposte at me.
Must I add that I have regretted the incident ever since in order to receive a pardon?
Thanks Ajm 🙂
Tricot:
Many have compared and contrasted the plethora of polling from post 2010 election to the sound of nothing poll-wise of today.
C
You may have thought it light-hearted. Tingle couldn’t be bothered with your humour. And you did not like it so you followed up by calling her thin-skinned.
Summary: I am rude to you in a minor way, and if you don’t like my sense of humour then that shows that you are thin skinned.
You would be aware that it is quite common for people who say something nasty to someone else (and who are then criticized for it) to complain that their targets lack a sense of humour.
The usual technical description of “insolvent” is inablilty to pay debts as they fall due. For a company it is illegal for it to continue trading if it is insolvent (but I don’t think this applies to and individual).
Bankruptcy (for an individual) or winding up (for a company) are the end stage resolution of financial difficulties. Another possible resolution is a deed of arrangement – it all gets quite complicated from there.
Ajm
In other words, Day is a long way from meeting criteria for being forced from the Senate?
boerwar @ #662 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 9:44 pm
He could spin it out for ages.
So, IF he is determined to have been trading insolvent then might that make anything he is the last needed vote for a dubious??
Boerwar,
And you did not like it so you followed up by calling her thin-skinned.
In the correct context, you are wrong. It was actually meant as a, albeit it may have been poorly understood, self-deprecating comment. NOT as an actual comment about Laura Tingle.
i
I doubt it. If he is a Senator in good standing his vote counts.
Boerwar,
I think I understand that Laura Tingle couldn’t be bothered with my comment. I was surprised that she took the time to read it. Actually at the time it was a salutary lesson that what is done on Twitter, or anywhere on social media, cannot be undone.
C
Yep. I have been casting stones at you in my fragile glass house. I will stop now.
AJM
It is one example but Gavan Griffith was worked over by the HC in his defence of the commonwealth in Wik.
It takes time to read the transcript but it is easy to compare the HC’s regard for him compared to his predecessor, Sir Maurice Byers, who was on the winning side.
Hee hee. Mingle with a fruit Tingle.
http://tinyurl.com/jh4zfwz
fizzy fruity tongue tinglers
ajm @ #643 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 9:26 pm
You come up with some good thoughts.
I hope you are right.
Enough said. Going to bed.
BW and C
I suppose the polls do get reported but it seems the breathless “we are on the brink” stuff seems to be missing. While the LNP had a healthy majority under Abbott, there may have been some understanding that his government would not fall apart over night as it were, and so I guess, up until the possibility of an election, the polls did not matter that much. However, here we are with a poorly performing government with a leader who has hugely disappointed, yet while the polls seem to be blowing out further for the LNP, it is as if the MSM have put strident commentary regarding the polls, in the “nothing to see here” basket. Perhaps its just my perception. I noted Andrew Probyn in the West did actually refer to the last 53-47 poll for Labor but in terms of, “Well if Labor/Shorten don’t get their acts together, the 53-47 doesn’t mean much.” I can never remember him writing in these terms in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years.
corio @ #649 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 9:32 pm
Thanks for that.
I did a check and found I made a slight error. It is Duyfken Point.
And interesting thing about it is the wreckage of 2 Thunderbolt fighters from WWII. Got lost and landed on the beach. Blown up sometime later.
shellbell @ #669 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 10:00 pm
Thanks, I’ll take a look at it when I’ve got a bit of spare time
Brendan O’Connor
49m49 minutes ago
Brendan O’Connor @BOConnorMP
#auspol Bob Day puts politics before his victims to vote for government’s
Good night C@t!
T
Rudd was very popular with the people even while most of his own MPs thought that he was an incompetent.
Abbott is not very popular with the people.
So that is one key difference.
Unlike many, I see no particular reason for the Turnbull Government not to run its full three years. It is not even close, IMO, because the bulk of the Reps crossbenchers would support a Coalition Government, even should a couple of people cross the floor.
Finally, X will negotiate, so will Phon, and that leaves just two to get the Government across the line in the Senate for any particular bit of legislation. IMO, getting stuff across the line will happen with a fair degree of regularity.
Coincidentally the very early Dutch arrivals first came across the Wik people
T
A point consistent with your view would be that if we get to 18 months out and the polls are consistently running 52/48 then there will almost certainly be leadershit amongst the Liberals.
The tricky bit for Labor, 18 months out, would be if they are running ahead 52/48 consistently but Shorten has a poor PPM trend and average netsats.
TRicot:
There feel way fewer polls today than there were 6 years ago. We’ve only had our first Morgan since goodness knows when, certainly since before the election. And where is Ipsos? Reachtel seems to have similarly given up the game, and whatever happened to Galaxy? It was the constant polling coupled with Abbott’s hysteria that fuelled an impending sense of crisis in the then minority govt. But we’ve not had the former, and certainly not the latter when it comes to this govt, which to me looks to have a far more tenuous hold on govt than Gillard’s govt did.
Shellbell
Yep. The Wik got started early. The speared several of the Duyfken’s crew.
Brandis could super ignite Twitter and PB by appointing Jeremy Stoljar as SG
C
I suggest that William was making the point that the Morgan political poll was sort of incidental so, while it happened, it is not part of a trend of Morgan polls.
boerwar @ #678 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 10:08 pm
I grant you that is logical but I would just love to see the forces of darkness fail to run full term when they had a majority after the election while the Gillard/Rudd government DID run full term, even with a minority post election.
There would be some sort of poetic justice in it.
Ajm
Our feelings are alike. But, if wishes were fishes?
shellbell @ #683 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 10:12 pm
or Carmody
confessions @ #681 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 10:11 pm
They’re not going to run the polls unless someone pays them to do it, so blame the media companies, not the pollsters. Essential just keeps rolling on because their political questions are just a subset of their market research stuff and they have an online panel, so don’t have to ring people, so it’s quite cheap.
Are we sure Newspoll is happening tonight?
Yes, and that is an entirely reasonable conclusion to draw given the polling.
I too fail to see a scenario where this Government doesn’t run a full term, or, as close to a full term as Senate rotations allow. Having said that, I see plenty of scenarios where Turnbull’s leadership doesn’t run full term. Barring major international events, this Government’s handling of issues, lack of competency and a range of other factors give me very little reason to believe that they will suddenly get on to the front foot, even given the increased chances of legislation getting through the current Senate.
Ajm:
Oh yes, don’t misunderstand me. There is definitely an element of restraint when it comes to the lack of polling and the relationship with media proprietors which would normally contract them. My question (albeit tongue in cheek like Tricot’s), is why?
Manne by far the best performer on Q&A.
Plibersek has done well. Sinodinos has run his lines.
Dolan seems to be all sparks and smoke and fire but the result is confusion.
Mitchell comes across as a smug sleaze.
Jones did a good job in guiding the discussion, IMO.
Sinodinos kept talking about things he remembered. I didn’t think that was something he could do.
The Morgan result is without documented primaries, without documentation of the 2PP method, off a small sample size and by a pollster with a deservedly poor reputation in recent times. This caused me to weight it at a tenth the value of a typical federal poll, but it still shifted my aggregate 0.2 of a point.
airlines @ #689 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 10:19 pm
Still not seeing any chatter from the usual suspects but this sometimes just means the result is boring.
This House of Reps will run the full 3 years unless and until the Government gets an earlier boost in the polls, in which case the PM would call an early election as Menzies did in 1963.
Re the numbers on the cross-bench, Bandt (Green) will normally support Labor. Katter is closer to the Coalition. Wilkie tends more towards Labor / Green while the remaining two (NXT, McGowan) seem to be genuine centrists, tending towards conservative. All except Bandt would be likely to support the Government on matters of supply and confidence if the Coalition lose a member or two. The numbers just aren’t there for Labor to sieze power in the current parliament barring extraordinary circumstances.
Re an early election.
The numbers look safe for the Coalition to last a full term. However, there is lingering in the background the very real possibility of a split within the Coalition ranks between the conservatives and the more moderate forces. Issues such as a parliamentary vote on marriage equality could well be a catalyst.
Newspoll:
2PP:
L/NP 48 (0)
ALP 52 (0)
Turnbull:
Approve 29 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)
Shorten:
Approve 36 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (0)
Preferred PM:
Turnbull 42 (-3)
Shorten 32 (+2)
So much for Morgan.