The latest weekly reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a widening of Labor’s two-party lead, which is out from 52-48 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 37% and Labor is up one to 37%, with the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 5% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. Quite a few interesting supplementary questions this week:
• Respondents were asked to retrospectively evaluate major government decisions, recording big majorities in favour of Medibank/Medicare and compulsory superannuation, lesser but still favourable results for the GST, floating the dollar and free trade agreements, an even balance on reducing subsidies to car manufacturing, and strong opposition to the privatisations of Qantas, Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.
• There is an even balance of opinion on the New South Wales government’s backflip on banning greyhound racing, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.
• Seventy-nine per cent would be “concerned” if Donald Trump became President, with only 14% not concerned.
• With a plebiscite off the table, 55% say a vote should be held in parliament, while 30% say the matter should be left on the table until the election.
• Sixty per cent said they would support a tax cut for small businesses, with 17% opposed; almost the exact reverse say the same for larger companies (20% and 61%); and if small business was taken to apply to companies with upwards of $2 million revenue, 26% would be in favour and 41% opposed.
• Fifty-eight per cent approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030.
• Fifty-eight per cent are “not confident” that the government together with the current Senate will be able to get things done that the nation needs.
• Thirty-five per cent expect the government will run full term compared with 39% who expect an early election.
Hmmmmm
That would be priceless. Surely even Day has some self awareness not to be caught out like that.
Re BW @4:56PM. I think that the house price vs average annual wage is a very valid comparison.
In the early 1950s, my father, a tradesman working for the NSW Railways, purchased a quarter acre block in what was then a distant and unfashionable suburb. He had a modest, 3 bedroom weatherboard house built on it for the family home. He was supporting my mother, a traditional 1950s homemaker, and two pre-school kids. It wasn’t easy for them, there were no luxuries and not much in the way of mod cons, but a hard working family man could do it. The cost of the home would have been the equivalent of maybe 3 years’s wages.
Today’s real estate market is a crime against the nation, especially against its young.
Boerwar
It made sense 40 years ago (or a bit further back, prior to Menzies’s introduction of the policy of subsidising first home vendors) when the price of housing was related to the cost of production.
That is because average wage is also a production measure so one was comparing like with like.
Today the price of housing relates mainly to land values which are not sensitive to production (producing new land is usually infeasible) and so relating these prices to the production related average wage is invalid.
Land prices will either crash or will be wound down gradually through progressive (re)introduction of land value taxation. At that point housing prices will resume tracking the (declining due to technology) cost of production, as was in fact the case in the early part of last century.
Progressive run down is must less disruptive and hence preferable but is extremely politically difficult, for three reasons:
– politicians introducing it are almost certain to lose office due to its unpopularity
– the opposition then becomes the government and whilst it might be stupid enough to repeal the change if it does not it will reap the benefits from dramatically increased growth
– subsidising housing prices is a continuous temptation for a government and the extent to which doing so is bad policy (it’s pretty much the worst thing a government can do) is counter intuitive. So even when a government goes out on a limb and removes a bad housing policy or institutes a good one of their successors will just reintroduce the bad (e.g Howard) or remove the good (e.g. Denmark).
bemused @ #1481 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 4:36 pm
When John Howard travels around the world, it is the one thing that everyone (except the lunar right of the US) praises him for. No wonder he would be calling for strengthening it.
If anyone is interested enough and has sufficient technical knowledge to make sense of them, these links report what IBM, Nextgen and Vocus had to say about the ABS Census outage.
IBM
http://www.itwire.com/government-tech-policy/75360-census-2016-ibm-blames-nextgen,-vocus-for-stuff-up.html
Nextgen
http://www.itwire.com/government-tech-policy/75361-census-2016-nextgen-hits-back-at-ibm-claims.html
Vocus
http://www.itwire.com/government-tech-policy/75362-census-2016-vocus-lays-blame-on-ibm-employees.html
Lot of finger pointing going on.
EGTheodore
Your theory sounds good to a neophyte but I don’t have the capacity to understand whether it is good. I would like to test my general views which are:
1. That anyone who is in precarious employment (40% of the workforce, and increasing rapidly) is in no position to borrow to pay for a house.
2. That anyone who is underemployed (1,000,000) or unemployed (800,00) cannot borrow to buy a house.
3. That our house prices are inflated because they are being subsidised by tax evasion overseas and/or because they are being used to launder criminal overseas money.
4. That an almost total unwillingness to save, and a readiness to run credit card debt, does make a difference to potential home affordability for some people who do not save and who spend as they go. But I have no idea what proportion of the population this represents.
5. That the significant increase in the proportion of single person dwellings is part and parcel of a pressures against ownership (so instead of two wages contributing to the potential purchase, there is only one).
What I don’t have a feel for is the increase in proportion of the Australian workforce who have no hope of purchasing a house – not because of the sum of their economic behaviours and choices – but simply because of the disparity in trends in their disposable incomes and house/flat/land price trends.
Boerwar
Your observations re housing affordability are on the money.
Trog @ 1:34
I’m glad you noticed the double entendre. I noticed it after I wrote the blog, but before posting it. I pondered deleting it, but thought “WTH if the cap fits…”. If course, in the case of paedophile priests it wasn’t the cap that fitted.
Sky News Australia
1h1 hour ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Labor MP Anne Aly discusses her meeting with Senator Pauline Hanson #auspol http://snpy.tv/2f1dprJ
V
Two other issues have an impact, IMO.
When we were kids, we lived in houses that had far less space per person.
Our furniture and electronic goods were much more basic and far less numerous. Electronics were (eventually) TV, washing machine, electric heater, electric water heater, electric stove.
In other words, modern folk have much, much higher expectations when it comes to their houses.
Boerwar
Agreed, but electronic item are competitvely priced for what you now get. Tvs, computers, fridges, etc are actually relatively cheaper than even 10 years ago. I recall buying my first full sized tv nearly 30 years ago. It cost the same as a fabulous tv now.
Is five nil after eight minutes better than usual?
What about ten nil after 9 minutes?
TPOF
Serious question.
Do you think I’m telling people what to post?
Boerwar
And I just replaced the carpet in my home. It was cheaper than Carpet laid 25 years ago, for inferior carpet and underlay.
Boerwar:
On housing the decline in full time employment and the increasing casualisation of the workforce is bound to impact people’s capacity to own a house. I agree that there is a higher expectation of housing now than what there may have been some years ago, but maybe it’s just that people respond to what is available. In my grandparent’s era ensuites were unheard of, but growing up my parents had an ensuite in every home we lived in.
Expectations will always change over the years.
Bw
OK against the Kiwis …
Confessions
Who are you to tell posters how often they should post, and what other activities in life they should pursue. Who are you to pass judgement on anyone, let alone those you do not know.
Are you omniscient, or merely naive and presumptuous.
There may be commenters here who are aged and/or lonely and/or isolated geographically and /or just enjoy the cut and thrust of the stimulating dialogue they get here.
And good on them …… keeping their brains active, and enjoying themselves.
And a 40-something young upstart does not have the right to tell them otherwise.
A question to people who say housing expectations are greater now then when they grew up.
Did your home have a decent backyard and was close to work?
And are people these days accepting no backyards and long drives to get to work?
Just like Winx, Kiwis will win by the length of the straight (almost)
kezza2 @ #1515 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 5:46 pm
Whatever your intention, it was a logical conundrum. If you tell someone to stop telling people what to post you are, necessarily, telling people what to post (or, more precisely, what not to post).
Psyclaw
Why are you paying out on confessions?
TR
A question to people who say housing expectations are greater now then when they grew up.
Did your home have a decent backyard and was close to work?
And are people these days accepting no backyards and long drives to get to work?’
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
While the actual house space per person has gone up in houses I am not sure it has on average.
Apartments by and large are tiny, and say if bought by a young couple or older couple will be less space than might have been expected 60 years ago. A just starting out couple 40 years ago might buy a two bedroom house on a 1/8 acre block, but the bedrooms will be large enough for a chest of drawers, dressing table double be AND a cot (master) and the second bedroom will have space for two or even three beds. There will be a spacious veranda for the flow on and a large laundry – possibly outside but still large. There will be a clearly defined and largish dining space. The young couple today buys an apartment with two miniscule bedrooms, and a living space that allows a sofa and not too much more.
Sure out in McMansion land houses are bigger but gardens are NOT.
CTaR1
LOL
Yes to the former and it would appear to me that it’s yes on the latter as well.
TPOF
Thanks for your reply, but it doesn’t make much sense.
If I ask someone to stop telling people what to post, it doesn’t automatically follow that I’m asking people to post what I want.
Yeah!
CTaR1
See the amount of smoke coming from the Kuznetsov’s funnel? Filthy runnings.
DTT
http://www.realestate.com.au/advice/is-bigger-better/
When I was growing up it was considered luxury to have an ensuite in your home. We didn’t have living, dining AND home theatres in our homes, and 4 bedrooms and double garages weren’t the norm. All these features are normal today.
Likes
BB’s favourite commentator will be on Insiders!
Insiders ABC
Oct 20
Insiders ABC @InsidersABC
Our guest this weekend is @cpyne On the panel: @markgkenny @latingle & Niki Savva. See you Sunday 9am! #Insiders #auspol @barriecassidy
Embedded image
The changing expectations could reflect a type of population re-sorting. There is a trade-off between backyards and the commute to work. The relative scarcity of land close to the city has meant there has been incentive for property owners to convert houses with backyards into duplexes, town houses etc with less backyard space. People who value lower commute time will pay the premium prices and forego the backyard. Others who value a backyard more further and further away from the city.
Dtt
Agree. Squashy apartments in Melbourne, Sydney and increasing in Brisbane, I gather.
MacMansions taking up 85% of the block still seem to be the go in Canberra.
An observation – young couples have for the last about 3 decades expect their first residence to be at least the equal of their parents.
victoria @ #1510 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 5:39 pm
Thanks for posting that Victoria.
I heard Anne Aly on the Sunday Nights program on ABC local radio a couple of weeks ago. She is excellent value.
Incidentally, while a religion program, Sunday Nights presents some of the most left wing material you will encounter in the MSM.
kezza2 @ #1528 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 6:37 pm
I was not saying that you were doing that. It’s more a case that any direction (it was directing not asking) to people that are not to tell others what to post or not post is necessarily doing the same.
For all that, I don’t really care about the issue. I am frustrated at all the personal argy-bargy and all the incredible repetition of competing arguments almost all of which is about one-upmanship, rather than actual elucidation and genuine informing of other posters.
Nope don’t think you will with that line up!! 😀
Bw
The Russian A/C was launched 31 years ago. Despite a recent refit it is buggered.
Wondering if an A/C will make it out, let alone back, is a feeling familiar to me!
I have no idea what happens elsewhere, but here in Melbourne, new housing estates actually have virtually no back or front yards. You would be lucky to fit a mini vehicle in the driveway, and forget about trying to park your car on the street. You can barely drive through when a car is parked on the street. Meanwhile in established suburbs where bigger blocks ruled, are now being systemically carved up for townhouses
Fess
no doubt Pyne will tell BCassidy that all members of the party are besties
Coalition have had a bad week? Let’s send out Mr Fixer.
CTaR1
Did you notice the two red fire engines parked just in front of the island?
Lizzie
Yep. Wonder if Pyne will allow BCassidy to get a word in edgewise
http://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2016/10/russias-biggest-warships-steams-along-coast-norway-towards-syria
As expected, ISIS has set the sulfur factory on fire.
That is going to be a very large very toxic cloud to go with the very large very toxic oil smoke clouds shrouding the vicinity of Mosul.
In his typically motormouth, take all comers way!!
Bw
I didn’t notice them but to have firefighting gear on the flight deck is usual practice.
The aircraft look like the old SU-33 rather than the planned MIG29KR’s?
Lizzie – The ‘Fixer’ and Savva on?
It’ll be a love in!
I might give the Pyne segment a miss. If he says anything interesting or important I’ll hear about it (probably here). I fon’t have to watch him.
confessions @ #1537 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 6:56 pm
Pyne on Insiders? They’ve switched to vaudeville!