Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly result from Newspoll registers the best two-party result for Labor since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:

• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.

• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.

• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.

• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.

• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.

• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,470 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Sharks just concussed a sharks player with some nice head high work. The Club doctor is doing the South Australian opposition leader routine. The player has his mouth open. The game continues.

  2. On the day of Rudd’s second coming, I was visiting a relative in hospital. At the next bed, the Doctor was visiting a frail but akert elderly lady. He asked the standard question “Who is the Prime Minister”. She got it right. A later question was her date of birth. She got that right too – late in 1917 – 96 years old. Hopefully she was going to be OK.

  3. TPOF
    Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 9:05 pm


    I was having an exchange with DTT earlier about her fanciful alternative history speculation. But, in the world of what might have been, there is little that can match the question of what would have happened if the Archdukes car had not gone in the wrong direction and had to reverse and then stop giving Princip the easiest target possible.

    Without doubt, the antagonists would have fund another pretext for mobilisation. The alternate question is really what would have happened had Germany succeeded in its initial plans and defeated France within the first weeks of their attack. If Germany had won in 1914, the course of the 20th century would have been entirely different.

    France was in every sense disastrously unprepared for the war they had to fight, despite two generations of preparation. They got practically everything wrong. Somehow they turned the Germans in the Battle of the Marne in the first few days of September. This was not a battle they had expected to have. Had they failed, the war would have been over almost as soon as it started.

  4. How long would Rugby League last if it wasn’t propped up by Harvey Norman Half Time and KFC deciding whether or not a try was scored or not?

    Also when are they going to stop calling it a Try and start calling it a Quad as you now get 4 points for it?

    Another also, when are they going to do away with the scrum? An utterly pointless exercise since the ball gets thrown directly into the second?

  5. Steve777:

    Crikey needs to protect itself and its contributors from accusations of defamation. Considering the autonomic, glass jawed, litigious behaviour of many in the msm this is to be expected, yes?

  6. … when are they going to do away with the scrum? An utterly pointless exercise since the ball gets thrown directly into the second?

    I agree. The scrum serves no point now. Mind you, the ball always used to be fed into the second row before they changed the rule.

  7. Another also, when are they going to do away with the scrum?

    Yes I’ve often wondered that myself wrt rugby league.

  8. Btw I say that under the influence of my brother who is a dyed in the wool rugby union man who routinely scoffs at the persistence by the NRL to retain the scrum when it doesn’t mean anything unlike with NRU.

  9. Confessions @9:43PM. Fair enough. I will never insult fellow posters but I regard public figures as fair game. However, I have no desire to cause problems here, quite the contrary. I was just expressing my low regard for the member for Cook (the Treasurer), regretting that he would be pleased by tonight’s Grand Final result and be able to bask in the reflected glory of his local team. Not because he is a member of the Liberal Party, not because he believes in the laissez faire economics but because of his record as Dogwhistler in Chief, for example issuing press releases listing the dread diseases supposedly brought by asylum seekers arriving by boat.

    As for the Cronulla Sharks players, enjoy the day, enjoy the glory. For many of you, it’s the best day of your lives.

  10. Yes the scrum still means something in Union, supposedly the game the play in Heaven (they play League and AFL in another place). If you get the ball and you’re too slow, you get tackled, the whole opposition jumps on top of you then your own team. Eventually the ball emerges from the melee…

  11. I’m glad the Sharky’s won having been brought up in the shire (Oyster Bay). During the 70’s I was a season ticket holder, I bought mine unlike Morrison. 1978 was very disappointing .
    If Morrison gloats being a man of peace I would only hit him once.

  12. Steve777:

    I share your views of Morrison. But Crikey doesn’t have the News Ltd heft at its back when it comes to comments on its news articles. Heck even its own columnists and cartoonists feel free to test the line between opinion and outright offence when the whim takes them.

    This is one of the reasons I subscribe to Crikey and New Matilda and will never subscribe to OM outlets begging me for my $$s.

  13. …sometimes it doesn’t seem fair…tell me a St Kilda supporter who witnessed Hawkins kick a goal that was a point …

    Yes it was a point. No doubt about it. Don’t forget though that the umpire awarded StKilda with a ‘double goal’ when Geelong’s Milburn question an umpire’s decision after the goal and indicated that it was the second time the ump had got it wrong. The umpire thought Milburn had made a rude gesture and awarded StKilda a second kick from the goal square effectively making it two goals.

    I don’t know why that incident is overlooked or indeed forgotten but it certainly evened up the error in calling Hawkin’s shot a goal.

  14. Rummel @9:38PM Watts up with that is calling the SA black out on wind farm fluctuations. They graphs look impressive.

    I don’t think you’ll convince anyone here that eletrons set in motion by coal can jump over the gaps created as falling towers brought down critical power lines, while those set in motion by renewables can’t.

    The problem is that the network was broken by the storm. Why? Well, maybe the towers weren’t strong enough to withstand a 50 year storm. Maybe there was insufficient backup / redundancy built into the network. Maybe critical infrastructure was in the path of that very severe chain of thunderstorms that crossed SA on the afternoon of the 28th – including tornadoes. Locally, maybe a once in centuries event. Maybe climate change has already increased the frequency of such events, so what was once in 50 years happens once in 20 or 10. Or maybe private rentseekers are skimping on essential maintenance. No doubt an enquiry will get closer to the truth.

    In the meantime, why do you believe that the fact that the atmospheric concentration of a major greenhous gas (proven fact) has increased by about 30% since pre-industrial times (proven fact) isn’t anything to worry about. Why do you feel a need to convince others of this?

  15. Interesting that neither Turnbull nor Baird were at the presentation. As League is traditionally the working class form of Rugbythere is significant demographic overlap with Labor voters and supporters of greyhound racing.
    I think the crowd reaction to their presence would have unseemly

  16. No government subsidies and decommissioning prepaid. Let the market decide.

    Lol! Dont forget buying properly priced insurance in the marketplace rather than having taxpayers assuming the risk. Important in the cost / benefit analysis. 🙂

  17. TPOF

    In case you missed my point entirely what I was trying to say was that almost all wars have unanticipated consequences and even if you think you are doing something for the greater good, there is one bloody good chance it will backfire. The net outcome of WWII (at least in Europe) was probably a plus, although once you count the Russian dead, the Brits and German civilians killed the damage to buildings and of course that the war did NOT save 6 million Jewish people it is not a simple question to say it was a win or at least not is you just count lives and building damage.

    You are then left with that difficult moral question what price freedom. The tyranny of German/Nazi rule would of course have been appalling for many, and valuable freedoms such as free speech, right to trial, habeas corpus etc would have been lost 60 years ago. Many more Jewish people and those with disabilities would have died. Many would have lived in virtual slavery. The question is – how many must die to prevent such loss of freedom and identity? Now I do not have a trite answer to this moral dilemma. I am not sure anyone does. If by inciting rebellion against an oppressor (be they Hitler, Assad, Putin or USA military) many civilians including children will die, have I the right to the luxury of rebellion. Now I was raised to admire rebels – Scottish, Irish, the French Resistance, but if say you knew that the outcome of Scottish rebellion might be Culloden would I take that risk? Morally can the risk to others be justified?

  18. Rummel,
    If a Once in 50 Year storm occurs and 22 Transmission Towers are knocked over, if the electricity is generated by Coal, Gas, Wind, Solar or Nuclear, the lights will still go out. You don’t appear to be able, or are unwilling, to acknowledge that.

    So, Mr Baseload Nuclear, are you willing to have the Nuclear Power Plant and Decommissioned Spent Nuclear Fuel Rods in your suburb?

  19. rummel
    Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    Bring on baseload nuke power.

    Base load does not describe “base” demand. It describes a supply pattern driven by a production cost constraint that applies to coal-fired plant – that is, that such plants cannot economically be shut down at night and then fired up in the morning. It’s cheaper to let them run all the time. As a result their turbines run even when not required. “Base load” should be called “Excess Supply”.

  20. I am open to nuclear power. Let the market decide, including ALL costs – building the reactor, running it SAFELY and looking after the waste, effectively forever. The latter is not as onerous as it seems. A sinking fund, accumulated over the life of the reactor, that produces enough annual income to manage an aporopriately secure facility, e,g. One billion dollars rwturning 5% would produce $50 per annum million forever. All going well, of course.

    Of course, as Woody Allen said, forever is a very long time, especially towards the end.

  21. Daretotread
    Isn’t it brilliant, cruel as you say but as I said in my tweet back “cruel but it is as the public are now seeing him’

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