This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.
In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:
• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.
• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.
• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.
• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.
I attended a local ALP Policy Forum today with Jenny Macklin as the speaker.
The theme was ‘inclusive growth’.
“After a quarter of a century of continuous economic growth, inequality is at a 75-year high. There are currently 2.5 million Australians living below the poverty line, and hundreds of thousands of Australians are unemployed. We are at serious risk of leaving a lower standard of living to the next generation of Australians, along with a less equal society.”
Jenny’s speech was done on work done in planning Labor’s agenda for tackling inequality which you can read about here: http://www.alp.org.au/growing_together
There is a link on the page where you can download the ‘Growing Together’ report, or you can read it online.
sprocket_ @ #2500 Sunday, September 25, 2016 at 9:18 pm
You can get $50 if someone throws an email server at Hilary Clinton. 🙂
Newspoll?
Ipsos? It’s dropped off the face of the planet.
I’m expecting Ipsos to be back next month, but that could change.
I’m amazed anyone here was fooled by this bloke “Rummel”. To think that some of you sent donations to his favourite charity (or whatever it was) a couple of years back. How he must have laughed at that, gypping you into thinking he was just a poor firey, strayed off the beaten path a little, worth saving.
Urban Wronski is on fire, and rightly so…
Plenty more where that came from, at the link.
But, but…emails!
Bemused
It’s critical to understand that the divergence between growth and real wage growth which began in the US and UK in the 1980s only really began in Australia in 2000. Bill Mitchell has a chart showing wage prices diverging from growth in the mid 1980s but wage price indices do not include superannuation, leave entitlement and various other things. In fact Bill seems to be making the same specious argument made by John Howard when he claimed to be the workers’ best friend (although to different ends of course). He also (more recently) has a 1997-based chart (during which the non-wage components were essentially constant) and this shows a true picture albeit for a subset of the time period:
The ABS (those scoundrels) only started the WPI (wages excluding super etc) in 1997 and only temporarily published an LPI (labour including super etc), last in 2012.
Critically the structuring of superannuation and dividend imputation act so as to give workers a significant share in profits which is more or less unique.
Bill is absolutely on the money in relation to the US, and both FDR and (more interestingly) TR and (even) Eisenhower would agree with him. It is a mystery why he (mis)focuses on Australia…
As for the UK: it had natural advantages in manufacturing (large numbers of people in a small area create a strong home market) which Thatcher set out to destroy in order to destroy the unions. By 1990 she had succeeded and there’s nothing anyone could have done.
Lol, what’s up your nose BB?
Any Democratic Candidate other than Clinton would be in front by miles. She and the Dems are going down to a lifeless toupee!
He’s done a fantastic job cleaning up after the proven failure of GWB and his administration, and has managed it despite Republican parliamentary opposition even when Republicans controlled the parliament.
A brilliant 5 min summary of just how effective the Obama administration has been compared with his predecessor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZJGtWZ3CMw
Brandis being a bullying thug….again
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-warns-samesex-marriage-could-be-delayed-until-2020s-if-labor-blocks-plebiscite-20160925-grnwfw.html
There WILL be Same Sex Marriage as soon as this grubby government are thrown out of office!
I hope Labor call a press conference to laugh in the face of such ridiculous boorish behaviour.
Morning all. Hasn’t the management of the NBN improved under the Liberals? I wonder what performance targets were met to achieve this bonus?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-chief-executive-earns-36-million-as-company-reaches-nearly-5000-employees-20160923-grn735.html
Donald Trump is all class. Clinton should invite his first wife.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-asks-gennifer-flowers-to-us-presidential-debate-against-hillary-clinton-20160924-grntxk.html
Why do we even need a conscience vote on SSM? It should be voted on party lines. The issue is clear cut, and it is arrogance, not principle, for MPs to put their personal religious beliefs ahead of the rights of their constituents.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/just-one-electorate-opposed-to-samesex-marriage-20160923-grn2mq.html
Good Morning
Remember I said a while back and got called out of touch when I said Marriage Equality was totemic issue.
These polls show why.
Labor gets it. If you are in touch you do not oppose what the overwhelming majority of voters want. With polls like that John Howard would have bit his teeth like he did with gun laws and just passed it and got it out of the way.
Have no doubt the games Turnbull is playing by caving into the right are destroying the Liberal claim of the name of the party in the eyes of voters for once and for all.
The longer the plebiscite stays alive the longer the damage to the LNP will last in reputation terms of being out of touch. Run by a few rabid right wing extremists when its not for the big end of town.
Add that to the Medicare reputation and the LNP will be out of power for at least a decade.
This doctor questioning about “therapeutic” steroid use puts Brad Wiggins 2012 Tour de France win in dubious territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/sep/23/bradley-wiggins-former-doctor-questions-use-banned-steroid
I read on Twitter that only journos from the Australian were interviewed for HowardonMenzies.
On Corbyn
It does not matter if you think Corbyn is unelectable or not. Those that have a vote the members of the Labour party have decided.
Its time for unity. Time for the back biting of Corbyn to stop and the minority of the party to get into lock step in line with the majority of members. Its not like their minority voice will totally disappear. They will still have a voice in committees and other party policy machinery.
The members have voted in a landslide. Its time that reality was accepted and the best effort made by Labour to win the next election. This starts with the Blairites like John McTernan and his PLP allies accepting the members verdict.
If they don’t the party will split because Corbyn will have no choice but to deselect the Labour rats doing their best to make Labour unelectable by continuing a public split.
Thats the reality like it or lump it.
Guytaur
True. Howard turned the Liberals into a conservative rump years ago. Not just in parliament, but by stacking party offices and preselections with the ultra right.
Soc
What am I missing? If the LNP HoR members all are bound to vote ‘no’ it won’t pass.
‘I read on Twitter that only journos from the Australian were interviewed for HowardonMenzies.’
Well it is their ABC after all!
CT
If the LNP wants to be representing the voters the party line would be a yes vote.
Thats what you are missing. Of course understandable as the LNP are not representing the views of the voters on the issue to miss that.
Gt
If the policy is that ordinary members elect the leader is followed then Corbyn himself would not be able to ‘deselect’ any one. That would be up to the ordinary party members in the particular electorate.
It works both ways.
Guytaur
Exactly. Making it a conscience vote makes SSM sound like some momentus issue where there is some moral dilema involved. There is not. Nobody is forced into a SSM if they are made legal. Nor is anybody harmed, other than a biggotted few being offended. The only justification for voting No, is personal (religious) prejudice, in a society that has already made discrimination on gender or sexual orientation illegal.
CT
Thats the rule changes Corbyn is advocating. The basis he sees for deselecting.
Agree or not he is being consistent.
Have a good day all. Shorten should pursue SSM; it is the right thing to do both for Labor and the nation.
Socrates
Her also enthusiastically did the same to a myriad of government bodies/boards/public services. Even The Australian had “raised eyebrows” over what he was doing.
On top of that was the effect of awarding discretionary salary bonuses to senior AP people . Nice little inducement for them to be good little boys and girls eh ?
Whatever else you may say of the Blairite rump anti-Corbyn group, they seem NOT to have their finger on the political pulse. If they cannot wisely judge the reaction of party members to their actions and to the efforts to prevent Corbyn running at all, then they probably could not judge the mood of the electorate either.
They have taken a bit of a bloody nose on this and should back off. if that idiot John McTernan is advising them then they surely could not win and election with only the Raving Loony Party as opponents. He is the idiot that lost them Scotland and of course “advised” Gillard into making mistake after mistake. He is such a wrecker I wonder if he is a Tory plant.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Sorry it’s a bit late today.
Ross Gittins is worried – very worried – about our government drifting off to the right in the face of economic logic of respected global leaders.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/global-leaders-change-direction-while-we-play-games-20160924-grnmcp.html
Urban Wronski goes to town on Turnbull’s lies to the UN and the crisis his government is in.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/09/25/turnbulls-lies-to-the-un-cannot-disguise-a-government-in-crisis/
Here’s a seat by seat breakdown of support for SSM. It begs the question of why so many pollies of certain persuasion do not.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/just-one-electorate-opposed-to-samesex-marriage-20160923-grn2mq.html
Soapy beats his chest and issues a “warning” in advance of his meeting with Dreyfus today.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-warns-samesex-marriage-could-be-delayed-until-2020s-if-labor-blocks-plebiscite-20160925-grnwfw.html
We mustn’t let loose the dogs of hate on marriage equality.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/marriage-equality-dont-let-loose-the-dogs-of-hate-20160923-grmq3a.html
Ben Davidson takes Christian Porter to task and tells him to spare us the moral judgements.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/spare-us-the-moral-judgments-minister-20160922-grlwzl.html
And Greg Jericho dismantles the “welfare bludger” preoccupation of the tabloids and Porter.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/sep/25/welfare-bludgers-on-tabloid-front-pages-dont-pass-reality-test
Product safety and companies’ reaction to dangerous incidents are under review, Let me tell you that it’s not that easy to investigate, determine cause and extent and act responsibly in a very short time frame. I speak from considerable experience. But it does not absolve one of responsibility.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/retailers-and-toy-makers-call-for-mandatory-injury-reporting-timeframe-to-be-extended-20160923-grmphv.html
What a bloody disgrace! Megabacks for shagging up the NBN.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-chief-executive-earns-36-million-as-company-reaches-nearly-5000-employees-20160923-grn735.html
Gun silencers are becoming more prevalent in Cictoria.
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/melbourne-criminals-increasingly-seek-to-cover-their-tracks-with-gun-silencers-20160925-gro237.html
Section 2 . . .
Evan Jones writes that Turnbull is a “flunkey for the banking mafia”.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-flunkey-for-the-banking-mafia,9515
How much of these reductions in generic medicines price will remain in the pockets of pharmacists I wonder.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/families-to-save-hundreds-of-dollars-under-pbs-changes-20160925-grnz1l.html
Support for proper leadership and action is on the rise again.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/support-for-worldleading-action-on-climate-change-skyrockets-according-to-new-poll-20160925-grnzs8.html
The public service pay dispute is really hotting up. Google.
/national-affairs/industrial-relations/unions-talk-of-strikebreaking-disturbing-public-sector-commissioner/news-story/4b2f6059f5ca47a3210533f92c41b62c
Hamish McDonald says that politicians need to look into the mirror to explain the rise of Hanson and Trump. There’s also a bit of a swipe at the media.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/support-for-worldleading-action-on-climate-change-skyrockets-according-to-new-poll-20160925-grnzs8.html
Swearing is good for us apparently.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/whats-your-bloody-problem-with-swearing-20160922-grlwtp.html
Perhaps we shouldn’t be shocked about the Essential poll result on Muslim immigration.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/09/26/that-muslim-poll-if-youre-surprised-history-suggests-you-shouldnt-be/
Murdoch’s Fox News sex scandal has left a money trail to follow. Google.
/image/v1/0f403a983fe20be3d97a467400ca7f00
Lawler starts finger-pointing already. Google.
/national-affairs/industrial-relations/lawler-says-judge-gave-thumbs-up-to-presiding-in-jackson-hearing/news-story/65d59b8435cb602b79fa549aaa3c0d87
On international trade is Turnbull Dr Jeckyll or is he Mr Hyde?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-turnbull–dr-jekyll-or-mr-hyde-on-trade-20160923-grmxx2.html
The presidential debate is shaping up to be dirty.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/25/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-debate-gennifer-flowers
Looking for a Trump metaphor? It’s autoimmune disease!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/25/donald-trump-autoimmune-disease-republican-nominee
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Rowe drops in on Trump preparing for tomorrow’s debate.
Cathy Wilcox in the schoolyard.
Mark Knight celebrates the Bulldogs’ win.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e3610a1507608e654a519ee5be588763?width=1024
Jon Kudelka has a nice little dip at Pyne.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0f403a983fe20be3d97a467400ca7f00
Brilliant. This is a must-read for all Coalition politicians, but I bet they won’t bother. After all it’s in that lefty publication the SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/spare-us-the-moral-judgments-minister-20160922-grlwzl.html
Daretotread
I wonder why the Scots love him ? 😆
McTernan wrote: “If you’ve not been to Sweden before, I think you’ll really like it – it’s the country Scotland would be if it wasn’t narrow, Presbyterian, racist etc. etc. Social democracy in action.
You’ll love this. Here he defends the Fonesca, Panama tax avoiders. Nothing to see here basically.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/05/tax-avoidance-is-an-expression-of-basic-british-freedoms/
Poroti
Is the “Malcolm” character in “in the thick of it” based on McTernan or Alistair Campbell or a combination of both.
Poroti
That is on helluva right wing article by McTernan and if written by Chriatian Port, Mal the Muddler or Joe Hockey we would all be out screaming about it.
Good morning all.
Italian news on SBS this morning was excellent. I have no italian language ability but am expecting email from Rome at Christmas when senior favorite daughter and most favored grand daughter will be tossing coins in that fountain.
I am very pleased with the rude words article featured by BK. As a consequence I envisage a raft of suitably offensive (only to the recipients ) language today.
BK news makes me proud to be an Austrian.
When senator Eric is speaking, who is it that has the hand up his back, manipulating the controls?
Does any body know the wonderful song that starts off “We’ve done us proud” by Graeme Connors. One can only hope the current government are sticking with their traditional “Oh Lord it’s hard to be humble”. Bon giorno. 😛
This morning on RN Breakfast Minister Steve Ciobo said wtte Labor was standing in the way of the people having their say on marriage equality ..went on to say that Aussies are capable of having a respectful debate without abusing others..
This is the same Steve Ciobo who said this on National Television:
“If anybody had the opportunity to slit Julia Gillard’s throat, Nick [Champion] would be one of the first to be in there..”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVVZaJmYOGo
Well there you go. Unity a bridge too far for UK Labour Right if true
Redlabour2016: There is a growing rumour that a band of MPs including @ChukaUmunna will be breaking off to form a new party tomorrow.
Morning all.
Thanks BK for today’s dawn patrol. I haven’t watched the Howard on Menzies thing and have no intention of doing so. I’m sure I’m not missing anything.
Daretotread
Alistair Campbell AFAIK. That article certainly was an eye opener.
Morning bludgers
Melbourne town is in the grip of footy fever! People have jumped on the Bulldogs bandwagon.
Politics usually takes a backseat during this time, whilst all the focus is on the GF
Pauline really said this? She is not all that bright………
Mr Denmore
Sep 23
Mr Denmore @MrDenmore
“Gays and lesbians want to change my way of thinking, who I am.” No, Pauline, they just want to get married. Nothing to do with you.
Victoria:
People here are backing the Dogs too. I really hope they win this weekend.
DTT, you are spot on re: McTernan.
To think that he was over here on a 457 visa advising Gillard.
What a fraud he is!
victoria
#2546 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 9:00 am
Pauline is probably right, a great many would like to change her into a rational person.
Hope vs experience again?
guytaur @ #2522 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 7:05 am
I don’t think Corbyn has the poser to deselect anyone. It is more to do with local Labour members.
Fess
Yep. My heart is with the bullies and my head says Swans will win.