Newspoll: 50-50

On both voting intention and leadership ratings, the results of the second Newspoll since the election are all but identical to the first.

Courtesy of The Australian, the second fortnightly result from Newspoll since its post-election return is identical to the first so far as voting intention is concerned, with primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 36% and Greens 9%, and a dead heat on two-party preferred. There is also next to no change on leaders’ ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull steady on approval at 34% and up one on disapproval to 53%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has nudged from 43-32 to 43-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1680.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point to 38%, Labor and the Greens steady at 38% and 37%, the Nick Xenophon Team up one to 4%, and the new response option of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation opening its account on 5%. Two-party preferred is unchanged, with Labor leading 52-48. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 43%, Bill Shorten down one to 36% and steady on 41%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister up from 40-30 to 41-26. Further questions find majorities in favour of bans on political donations from companies, trade unions and professional associations, with 50% saying they should be allowed and 35% disallowed from individual Australian voters. A question on whether the words “offend or insult” should be removed from racial vilification law found 45% supportive and 35% opposed. Further questions relate to illegal drugs, with 47% supportive of the decriminalisation of cannabis and 39% opposed, but heavy majorities against decriminalisation of ecstasy, amphetamines, cocaine or heroin.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,145 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  3. I wasn’t aware of this.

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP · 2h2 hours ago

    The government’s solution to its inability to keep MPs at parliament doing their jobs? Get them to stay? Nope. They have shortened sittings!

  7. Religious institutions don’t pay taxes. I VEHEMENTLY object to them being granted public funds to interfere in the lives of those who do.

  9. ‘Religious institutions don’t pay taxes. I VEHEMENTLY object to them being granted public funds to interfere in the lives of those who do.’

    Here here! I thought we have some sort of desperate budget emergence that necessitates cutting money from the most disadvantaged in our community.

  11. Catherine King MP says she already has examples of hate speech on her email, telling depressed gay children to hurry up and kill themselves and stop whinging. This is despicable, and gives the lie to Malcolm’s dismissal of these problems.

  12. Federal Court Judge Robin Camp is in the midst of a week-long judicial council hearing, which will determine whether he ought to be booted from his position.
    The case in question took place in 2014 when Camp was a provincial court judge. (He became a Federal Judge last year.)

    The 19-year-old woman said she was raped over a bathroom sink during a house party.
    According to records of the trial, Camp asked her why she didn’t “skew her pelvis” or push her bottom into the sink to avoid penetration. He openly wondered, “Why couldn’t you just keep your knees together?”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/12/world/robin-camp-rape-comments-trnd/index.html

    It’s incredible that in 2016 these views still exist among the judiciary.

  13. Morning bludgers

    David Cameron resigned as PM and now will go from Parliament. Why doesnt Turnbull do us all a favour and follow his lead. This whole plebiscite idea and funding of same has got to be the most stupidiest thing ever

  14. Lizzie:

    That is precisely why I am opposed to a plebiscite for SSM. We elect parliamentarians to get on with the business of law making, so leave it to parliament to deal with this.

  17. bk @ #23 Tuesday, September 13, 2016 at 7:04 am

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Phil Coorey says that the government has compromised over the welfare payment reduction. Google.
    /news/politics/coalition-compromises-on-dole-cuts-to-win-budget-deal-with-alp-20160911-gre0u0
    It beggars belief how the Catholic church carried on like this!

    Good Morning BK. Thanks for the round up this morning. I am alarmed to see talk that Labor will allow this amended Omnibus Bill through including the cutting of FTB end of year supplements.

    I know that when people have been robbing Peter to pay Paul in order to stay afloat, by the time these end of year supplements come around, they are more of a bail out or godsend. Once outstanding bills are paid, families are often left with enough to pay for a higher than usual expense that has risen to the top of their priority list.

    That might be paying for those car repairs or that car service requiring a timing belt change. Pay furniture removalists and extra rent to move house. Maybe their washing machine or fridge is on it’s last legs. I had one year back in 2009 (twin daughters not yet in school) where I had been hand washing for 12 weeks waiting on my end of year supplement so I could buy a washing machine. One year I was lucky enough to be able to pay for domestic airfares so my kids could meet all their Aunties, Uncles and cousins for the first time and I could see mine for the first time since my Mum died. I think cutting these payments is deplorable. It is cutting the light at the end of the tunnel for a great many families with younger children.

  18. Lizzie

    I can recount personal stories of those young people who were nearly lost to their families because of the difficulties they had dealing with their sexuality. One family had no clue whatsoever that their son was gay. They thought his depression etc related to the pressures of school and being a teenager. Luckily he was saved just in time. This public campaign is an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

  19. Good Morning

    All the comments I have seen from Labor this morning confirms my belief Labor will vote no to the plebiscite too.

    So the public will see the reality. Not only is Turnbull weak. He is too weak to oppose his right wing even when he knows what they propose will fail in parliament

  20. Wording of the plebiscite confirmed “Do you want to make puppies and kittens suffer by introducing a revolutionary change to allow faggots to marry, ruining marriage for the rest of us”.

    I feel sorry for Warren Entsch. He honestly seemed to have trusted his party, and he was betrayed and outmaneuvered.

  21. c@tmomma @ #28 Tuesday, September 13, 2016 at 7:31 am

    Don,
    Let’s wait and see, shall we, just how many people end up responding by the due date? All else is simply wild speculation.
    One thing I do know, is that Statistics being what it is, that an anomaly such as this can be compensated for when the next Census occurs, more likely than not, smoothly.

    That response reminds me of those sad politicians with the votes running 70% to 30% against them on election night, with 90% of the votes cast, who refuse to concede defeat.

    You seriously think that those missing 3 million will suddenly get religion and send in their forms?

    Pigs might fly.

  22. Victoria

    Thats why I think Labor will vote no. I don’t like Labor policies some times but Labor has a great thing going for it. It is still in touch with humanity and listens to reality not just run ideology in complete denial of evidence.

  26. GrogsGamut: I wonder @TurnbullMalcolm if it might be time to decide if you want to be PM for reasons other than padding out your biography

  27. I feel sorry for Warren Entsch. He honestly seemed to have trusted his party, and he was betrayed and outmaneuvered.

    About the only thing moderate about most so-called Liberal ‘moderates’ (sic) is their levels of intelligence and courage.

  28. Honestly, if the Plebiscite vote fails, then I am hoping that, with no prospect of a plebiscite, the avid supporters of SSM in the Coalition, like Entsch, and hopefully Wilson and Zimmerman, will grow a pair and cross the floor to vote for a change to the Marriage Act to allow SSM.

    Knowing that there are likely many gay couples in their electorates, if they did it then I could well imagine their Primary Vote going well North at the next election.

    Who knows? With the Plebiscite kicked to the curb from the long grass, Malcolm might even stand up for what he believes in and vote for it in the parliament too.

  29. Ratsak

    I get where you are coming from but am willing to wait for the vote on the Labor and Crossbench bills. With no plebiscite we may still see some courage to cross the floor

  30. Guytaur

    Turnbull was allowed to take over from Abbott, to ensure re election. Not change direction. If he were displaying real leadership, he would not proceed with this ridiculous plebisicite

  31. Don,
    Way to be a condescending old white man and totally miss the point of what I was trying to say, all at the one time! Congratulations! : )

  32. GrogsGamut: I wonder @TurnbullMalcolm if it might be time to decide if you want to be PM for reasons other than padding out your biography

    As if. This is all it’s ever been about.

  33. victoria

    We are in furious agreement.

    With the media following this issue closely it will change the way the press gallery views the government.

    I have seen signs of it already and it means the public that has not woken up yet might soon be jolted awake as the Gallery is brought to its senses on how out of touch they have been with reality

  34. Would any of the “experts” who already know that the Census is rooned care to authoritatively quote the minimal returns level % at which the data would be viable.

    Or is it the case at every Census that there is no such level, “we get what we get” and then apply orthodox stats to derive all sorts of valuable info.

    Maybe the end of the world is not quite here yet.

  35. Turnbull was allowed to take over from Abbott, to ensure re election. Not change direction.

    Exactly what Peter van Onselen said to Wendy Harmer on the radio just now.

    He also said that he doesn’t think Tony Abbott is angling to come back to the leadership but that what we are seeing is Abbott Unbound, free to speak his mind with no constraints.

  39. I feel sorry for Warren Entsch. He honestly seemed to have trusted his party, and he was betrayed and outmaneuvered.

    I don’t feel sorry for him at all. He can cross the floor anytime he chooses but hasn’t got the courage of his convictions to do so.

  43. With no plebiscite we may still see some courage to cross the floor

    Only if they don’t mind rushing into opposition for a few terms. The second any ‘moderate’ (sic) breaks ranks it will be open warfare. Like their leader they’re only in this for themselves (and to dish out lolly to their big donors in return for favours later). When it comes to the crunch you won’t find enough vertebrae between all the ‘moderates’ (sic) to put together a single spine.

  44. “Turnbull was allowed to take over from Abbott, to ensure re election. Not change direction.”
    The last election was the greatest political con I have ever seen.

  46. Yesterday evening I mistakenly turned my non intelligent TV to “A Current Affair”.
    Terror on the streets. What appears to be a ratbag with a knife making a frightening and life threatening attack has somehow become the face of ISIS.
    I expect that the producers of this program know their audience. I suspect the the LNP know this audience very well.
    Later a $1 million dollar reward for information re William Tyrrell. Police essentially saying that they remain clueless. Any perpetrator must be feeling reassured. A desperately sad affair.
    I had not seen A Current Affair for years and I am not sure what to make of it. I suppose it’s “entertainment”. I prefer “One Foot in the Grave”.
    I think I had better finish my lawn mowing before the rain.

  48. “ABS Census 2016 head Duncan Young said seven million households, or 80 per cent, had completed the survey by September 2, and those which had not would be encouraged to do so by Census staff”.
    The above figures are from 11 days ago. I imagine the return will be much higher by now.
    I’d still contend that without 95% paricipation then the results will be less robust or reliable.

    The hold outs are diminshing. But, they can still ruin the integrity of the Census with their alleged boycott.
    The Government and Labor are right to insist on upholding the law and fining the recalcitrants. No doubt, we’ll soon see the value of their principles.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/liberal-and-labor-parties-refuse-to-rule-out-census-fines-putting-one-in-five-households-at-risk/news-story/738e06f7f9a0c54c38d892a73f710484

  50. The way that the police introduced the $1m reward for information about William Tyrrell suggests they know more than they are letting on and that their short list is shorter than the figure stated. I expect they will be interested in and closely monitoring any communications from ‘people of interest’ following the announcement.

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