The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are questions on issues most influencing vote choice at the election, with health policies (60%) and Medicare (58%) at the top of the list, and favoured priorities for the new government, which likewise have investment in more hospitals and health services (55%) well clear on top, followed by investment in education (31%). The rest of the survey focuses on international affairs, and finds 47% trusting the current government to handle them compared with 46% not doing so, a marked improvement since the question was last asked on Tony Abbott’s watch in May last year, when the numbers were 35% and 58%. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said the relationship with the United States would worsen if Donald Trump became president, with only 7% thinking it would improve, while 24% thought it would improve under Hillary Clinton and 13% that it would worsen. The online survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1018, with the voting intention numbers also including results from last week’s sample.
rex douglas @ #3290 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:59 pm
I think that most anyone with support and encouragement from many quarters including within the Liberal Party would think they were still in with a chance. Especially when they had received support previously from the one they were seeking endorsement from and had put so much time and energy into achieving their goal. Likewise, many people live by the motto “If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again.” It surprises me people are surprised by this.
This is about what has gone down and the fact Turnbull has behaved in a manner hardly befitting his position.
diogenes @ #3297 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:09 pm
FF 1 . . . FFS!
Good Afternoon
DTT
I did not and do not support the coup. Supported by the USA or not. I don’t believe however that it was in the interests of the US to have regime change when they had support from an existing government.
The problem with that government is its road to dictatorship. The only friction with the US on that was human rights violations and less democracy but that has never stopped the US supporting a government in its military role. In fact history tends to suggest it would be more likely for the US to support the existing government in power supporting their base rather than have instability and the possible outcome of them being kicked out.
So I call BS on this one as I do not see the self interest horse supporting the conspiracy theory.
P1,
You keep up the armegeddon watch. It suits you.
What sort of curtains will you have in your cave?
BK,
I blame diogs.
greensborough growler @ #3293 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:04 pm
………………………………………..
It had been up for the last 16 trading days out of 18 – with a gain of over 7% in that time – so an unusual series of up days which was due to end.
Overdue even.
Today the market is down 0.8% and a cycle date is due in the next day or so so that looks as if it will take it lower as well.
Usual caveats etc.
Nicole
Turnbull told Rudd in May he wouldn’t support him …and low and behold he didn’t support him.
Rudd has no reason to be hysterically vengeful given that fact.
Display Name
Suggest you be googling “psychoanalysis”. Haven’t ever seen that going on here, amateur or otherwise.
The Wiki description is pretty accurate.
daretotread @ #3299 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:12 pm
You managed to scramble up what I wrote in your attempt to quote me.
There are treaties governing the Bosphorus and rights of passage. As part of NATO Turkey has never attempted to block Russian access and nor would they short of a state of war.
I doubt the US would want to bottle up significant naval forces in the Black Sea under any circumstances.
RD
Thats if you believe Turnbull. First you have to say the letters Rudd released are false.
Second you have to believe that Turnbull tells the truth more than Rudd does.
However we have some facts on the table.
Turnbull reason given was he was not suited to the role. Evidence from DFAT on whose advice Julie Bishop supported Rudd was to the opposite effect.
Given that expert departmental advice my inclination is to believe Turnbull is the bigger liar in this.
Any government can go against the expert departmental advice. However it must do so with caution.
As Turnbull has given no reason why Rudd is not a qualified and suitable candidate against that specific advice and the support of most of the government it looks very petty and personal to me.
As such I cannot rule out an irrational payback for the humiliation of Utegate.
greensborough growler @ #3304 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:20 pm
I currently have quite a large real-estate portfolio. Sadly, as none of them contain caves, so they would not be suitable for chthonic PB posters such as your good self.
RD
Also in case you missed it someone in Cabinet leaked that the majority was in favour of Australia nominating Rudd to the role.
Full Essential fed poll now up
TPP: ALP 52 (0) L/NP 48 (0)
Primaries: L/NP 39 (0) ALP 37 (0) GRN 10 (0) NXT 4 (0) OTH 10 (-1)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Essential-Report_160802.pdf
Crikey articles
Banks, the rich to do best out of Turnbull, poll finds
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/08/02/banks-the-rich-to-do-best-out-of-turnbull-poll-finds/
Essential: the ABC voters’ go-to for election news
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/08/02/essential-abc-voters-go-election-news/
P1,
Would you like a loan?
Don’t give it to me. I’d only pass it on to someone who was influenced by your property bubble popping rhetoric.
guytaur @ #3303 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:19 pm
Have you made President Erdogan aware of this? He will be greatly reassured. 😆
No police action on Queensland Labor Party election day ‘Medicare’ text messages
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-police-action-on-queensland-labor-party-election-day-medicare-text-messages-20160802-gqjanw.html
bemused
That was for DTT’s benefit. 🙂
guytaur @ #3317 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:40 pm
If it was for her and her alone then don’t post on a public blog.
greensborough growler @ #3294 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:05 pm
You highlight a perfect of example of excessive derision or disdain towards a person who does not conform to your expectations. I have done nothing in reality to warrant such, except maybe in your mind’s eye. With some people that’s the way it goes, you rub them the wrong way and out comes their claws.
I have spoken to a couple of agents recently and their complaint is not lack of buyers but a lack of saleable product.
Hearing exactly the same. The growth may have slowed, but it’s still growing in Sydney at least.
DisplayName
Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:16 pm
Well said I for one am sick of all the ‘fights’ on Poll Bludger, turning a good blog into a ‘gotcha’ exercise, to settle supposed grievances. Enough to make me reconsider my subscription to Crikey as not enjoying Poll Bludger like I used to.
rex douglas @ #3307 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:25 pm
Rudd claims Turnbull told him the previous September and December that Turnbull would support his campaign to be UN SG. Turnbull has not only failed to deny this claim, but has been patently evasive when asked directly whether he encouraged Rudd.
On that basis Rudd went around the world campaigning for the position with other governments. Being able to say that he would be nominated by Australia was critical to this campaign.
The question of Rudd’s suitability for the job is subsidiary to the question of the honour and integrity of the Prime Minister. In private life, let alone in public life, you can’t give undertakings to someone on which they take action and then you refuse to live up to your undertakings. It shows that person to be discreditable and untrustworthy.
There can be exceptions – for example where it turns out that the undertakings were induced by fraud or the person has done something reprehensible subsequently that justifies withdrawing support.
But that was not the case with Rudd. His good and bad had been well and truly aired in the public domain well before the second half of last year. If you asked my opinion, I would have said that he was totally unsuited to be Secretary General of the UN based on my observations. But it was Turnbull who was asked and it is clear that Turnbull thought he was suitable. And Turnbull reached that view with a much closer observation of Rudd than anyone on PB. That doesn’t mean that Turnbull was right. But it does mean that Turnbull has the least right to turn around and withdraw the support given in a full, close knowledge of Kevin Rudd’s strengths and weaknesses.
So as far as I’m concerned, this is not about whether Turnbull made the right decision or the wrong decision. And therefore, going on and on about whether Rudd was a good guy or not in the past is totally irrelevant to the question. The ONLY question goes to the honour, credibility, trustworthiness and integrity of our PM. And it reflects very badly on him.
That’s why we should all be talking about Turnbull not Rudd.
bemused
Give your bullying a rest. The post was not addressed to you.
Guytaur
I probably 100% agree with you but I take it you do know that it is the TURKISH GOVERNMENT accusing the USA. So either the Turkish government is dissembling to cover up something or they have some level of evidence. I am not surte it matters, because whatever way you look at it there is a cooling of relations.
Maybe Turkey is playing a game of bluff – to force entry into EU or some such – quite possible, but it is clearly a pretty odd situation.
lol, opps. a link got pasted that shouldn’t be there somehow. I will blame my cat hopping up on my lap.
DTT
I thought it was plain from your posts it was the Turkish government doing the accusing
greensborough growler @ #3294 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:05 pm
Take 2:
You highlight a perfect of example of excessive derision or disdain towards a person who does not conform to your expectations. I have done nothing in reality to warrant such, except maybe in your mind’s eye. With some people that’s the way it goes, you rub them the wrong way and out comes their claws.
gerbil attack 1
Gerbil attack 2
Gerbil 3
Gerbil 4
Gerbil 5
OK others can do the rest
Guytaur
Rudd – “You will therefore understand how shocked I was to receive your telephone call just prior to your taking the matter to Cabinet in Canberra. In your telephone call you said that neither you nor the Cabinet would be supporting my nomination”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-01/turnbull-criticises-rudd-for-releasing-private-conversations/7679872
As clear as day.
So why would he continue with what was clearly knocked on the head ?
Rudd simply didn’t take no for an answer.
His current outrage at others is irrational and again displays his total unsuitability for the role of SG.
guytaur @ #3323 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:45 pm
What bullying? It was a joke.
DTT
Its the scapegoat thing. Erdogan called out his scapegoat true or not who resides in the US.
I think thats as far as it goes. We don’t know what is being said directly to the US in private.
Nicole,
I really don’t care enough to disdain you or have expectations of you.
rex douglas @ #3307 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:25 pm
LOL, Turnbull’s office lied to the media and Rudd’s office released letters to correct the record. Nothing hysterical or vengeful about that.
bemused
I did not take that post as a joke. Sorry if I missed your sarcasm. If thats the case mea culpa from me.
greensborough growler @ #3336 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:50 pm
Well why are you bothering to address me then? You must deem me relevant enough to warrant a response.
Looky here. A job has been found for a boy.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-hires-key-backer-peter-hendy-as-chief-economist-20160802-gqj69c.html
Guytaur
Given that it is Turkish prosecutors and ministers accusing the USA it is a little more than just scapegoating. They are accusing general Campbell of organising the coup attempt.
it does not much matter if true or false because it sets all sorts of hares running.
guytaur @ #3338 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:52 pm
Not sarcasm. It is just that sentence on its own struck me as very funny.
Sort of like that obscure country newspaper that used to have editorials starting “As we have previously warned the Tsar…” or wtte.
rex douglas @ #3333 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:49 pm
I will say again, because Turnbull’s office lied to the media and hence Rudd’s office released letters to correct the record. It makes perfect sense to me.
Nicole,
You made erroneous judgements about me and posted crap about my motivations. Just like you have with others in the recent past.
I’m entitled to correct the record as it pertains to me.
Otherwise, you can blather away to your hearts content.
Nicole
“It makes perfect sense to me.”
For Rudd to shoot himself in the foot?
tpof @ #3340 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:55 pm
Turnbull presumably believes Hendy will be able to reclaim the seat at the next election.
Fat chance, I’d say.
DTT
A lot of lies are happening. I don’t know and don’t pretend to know who is telling the truth other than I don’t see it being in the interests of the US to have had the coup.
That means whatever hares Turkey sets running with what its doing I just don’t see the US being behind this without actual proof and evidence. Using US history of supporting regime change for its interests only works if its in the US interest.
gerbil 6
gerbil 7
gerbil8