The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are questions on issues most influencing vote choice at the election, with health policies (60%) and Medicare (58%) at the top of the list, and favoured priorities for the new government, which likewise have investment in more hospitals and health services (55%) well clear on top, followed by investment in education (31%). The rest of the survey focuses on international affairs, and finds 47% trusting the current government to handle them compared with 46% not doing so, a marked improvement since the question was last asked on Tony Abbott’s watch in May last year, when the numbers were 35% and 58%. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said the relationship with the United States would worsen if Donald Trump became president, with only 7% thinking it would improve, while 24% thought it would improve under Hillary Clinton and 13% that it would worsen. The online survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1018, with the voting intention numbers also including results from last week’s sample.
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
Labor gains a point in the latest Essential Research poll, which emphasises the importance of health issues in the recent election result, and records deep concern at the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.
3,360 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”
William your “new thread” link goes to the Essential report, not to this thread.
The Coalition’s right wing was happy enough to walk all over the NT and its voluntary euthanasia legislation. So what have we heard today from the likes of Andrews, Christensen, Abetz and Bernardi?
Northern Territory youth detention: no excuse for not knowing of abuse
Each time a new incident in youth detention came to light, the Country Liberal party government – a scandal-plagued unicameral parliament – has responded defensively and unapologetically.
from the previous thread
BK…yes. She has to be much more than a token voice. I hope she can be a force for change, along with Pat Dodson. This is so overdue.
It really is time to stand up. We have to extend the reach of Reconciliation to include acts of Restoration…acts that will reinstate the rights and powers of Aboriginal people…In my heart-of-hearts, I think this is fundamental to our democracy, to citizenship, to our continuing self-determination.
We should recognise that what has been revealed on 4C is not exceptional. It is only an extension of everything that has come before. Until we resolve to recognise the dispossession of the first peoples and act to rescind their oppression, we will be destined to repeat it.
bk @ #2 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:28 pm
Why should they?
Euthanasia was about imposing their beliefs on us.
Locking up kids and treating them like shit is the same.
What has been happening in the NT has been just as secret as the greyhound cruelty and mass killings. By that I mean that anybody at all who was at all interested knew what was happening. I suspect that Arfur, for one, knew nothing, nothing at all. This last just to amuse myself.
Yes, you’re right!
It’s time for some journos to ask them for comment.
BOY IN THE HOOD: The kid behind the scandalous image
HE WAS a football-loving teenager who ended up committing a 24-hour crime spree while high on ice, and now shocking photographs of him restrained and wearing a “spit hood” in juvenile detention have gone around the world.
essential result is at least what election result would have been except for pernicious reporting in most media during election of course murdoch – there is some stat chance RM might not be active so to speak in next election – a small hope – always thought result would be 53 labor even under shorten except for rubbish media including abc
It seems the Tasmanian Senate result will be announced tomorrow:
briefly @ #4 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:33 pm
Well said Briefly.
And so say all of us!
I also posted this on the Herbert thread.
A few questions regarding Lisa Singh.
Slightly of topic but Lisa Singh is at 0.7950 of a quota.
What’s the largest personal vote below the line ever received?
If this is it, what was the previous record?
How would have Singh fared if it hadn’t been a DD?
Barney in Saigon
Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:58 pm
My quick estimation is that 5 seats would be certain – 2 Labor 2 Liberal 1 Green, with Lambie and Singh fighting for the final seat, with Lambie starting in front and would probably win.
Sophie – poor little thing; it could not have been anything she has said or done, so it must be someone else’s fault;
The hard-core idiots who thought that Malcolm would go from being a Frog to a Prince after the election are starting to wake up. Too late, guys.
nicole @ #11 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:54 pm
I’m thinking things through. For me, a whole lot of threads are woven together…or should be rewoven into an amended understanding of the citizen, the people and the constitutional order. I think we need a new enactment that is premised on and gives effect to “vows of equality.”
We could settle a great deal of the practical and the spiritual angst with which we are beset by making such an expression.
And Ken Wyatt, the only Indigenous Member of the federal Coalition has said what about last night’s episode of 4 Corners?
Doesn’t it speak volumes about the CLP Senator for the Northern Territory and Minister for Indigenous Affairs that, on the night that a special report was going to be aired into HIS area of responsibility, his interest wasn’t ‘piqued’ enough to cancel a dinner engagement with his staff member and their family and stay home and watch that episode of 4 Corners!?!
5 booths to recount, O’Toole leading by 48…
As long as Mirabella deludes herself as to why she got the boot, there’s still a chance she’ll put her hat back in the ring.
The local Liberals would preselect her again.
Mind you, all those local blokes who’ve come up to me in the last couple of weeks saying they’re pleased she’s gone are going to be surprised to discover that they’re Melbourne feminists.
Libs prepare for by-election as Greens sweat on Senate
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has made a campaign-style visit to the unresolved seat of Herbert as Scott Morrison indicated the Liberals would take the result to court if the current recount awarded the electorate to Labor.
With Labor’s candidate, Cathy O’Toole, fewer than 100 votes ahead of Liberal incumbent Ewen Jones in the North Queensland seat, Mr Turnbull effectively began campaigning on Tuesday in anticipation an application to the Court of Disputed Returns will result in a by-election being ordered.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/libs-prepare-for-byelection-as-greens-sweat-on-senate-20160725-gqdn5v#ixzz4FUfuk7S8
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
Sophie Mirabella will have to start beginning the realisation process sooner or later that the sort of epithets she likes to throw around and the sort of politics she likes to play is soooo Tony Abbott era and people are just over it. And her.
Earth to Sophie…it’s not going to work any more.
moksha @ #14 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:15 pm
If a By-election is granted by the Court of Disputed returns, Bill Shorten just has to say, “You, the people of Herbert, elected Cathy O’Toole, so just send a message to Malcolm Turnbull that that’s who you want!”
Facebook has removed ABC 4C footage from last night’s episode from their site.
No reason was given. 4C producer Sally Neighbour was left flabbergasted
What a bunch of hypocrites the people at Wastebook are
c@tmomma @ #25 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:33 pm
This would not be a by-election imposed on the Liberals. It would be one they will have tried to procure by their own actions. They should be careful what they wish for.
The last time a Liberal-held seat was contested in a by-election, the then-PM, Tony Abbott, was summarily deposed. Turnbull should take note. By campaigning so hard and so effectively in Canning, Labor helped bring about a change in the Liberal leadership. We will relish the opportunity to do the same thing in Herbert if given the chance.
I don’t understand Morrison’s stupidity in angling so hard for a by election in Herbert if Labor wins.
1) If The Coalition win, now Labor can say “even ScoMo thinks we need a by election” There is no reason why those soldiers who were only given 14 days to vote instead of the 10 hours that most people have could not have voted Labor. Nor those people in the Hospital that only had 9 hours to vote instead of the 10 hours others had. If ScoMo is justifiying a by election on a Labor win, he is also justifying a by election on a Labor loss. Better to keep his mouth shut until the count is done.
2) Labor will win a by election. The steady shift away from The Coalition, which was there from Dec, and paused during the election campaign is continuing in Essential since the election finished. By elections are typically bad for the government anyway.
c@tmomma @ #23 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:30 pm
Is Turnbull going to give her a cushy job like Abbott did?
SCOTT – I have seen the comment that the Libs will say: give us a win to improve stability. But I really can’t see the electorate falling for that one. It’s give us a win because we f…ed up. Malcolm’s inability to bring home the electoral bacon has really diminished him. People liked him because they thought he could win big and do things. But he won small and is exposed as a charlatan.
How much of a quota did Colbeck get BTL?
Sophie … will … be … back. She … can’t … help … herself.
Labor now ahead 40 votes in Herbert
…4 booths to go…40 vote margin for O’T
scott bales @ #28 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:42 pm
Think about that sentence Scott.
I’d be very concerned if I understood anything Morrison said or did.
Facebook removed the 4Corners promo for containing child nudity, which is absolutely banned on the platform.
kevin-one-seven @ #30 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:51 pm
There is no sign the LNP have yet figured out how to govern. They are still dissembling. They are still squabbling. They are still pandering to the RW. They will almost certainly lose a by-election.
“HE WAS a football-loving teenager who ended up committing a 24-hour crime spree while high on ice”
It’s pretty irrelevant that he loved football. It’s a bit more relevant that he bashed someone until they were unconscious and then tried to run a policeman down with a car.
Turbull keeps mentioning the need for speed when talking about the Royal Commission.
Is this the excuse they will use to limit the terms of reference and the scope of the Commission?
ratsak @ #31 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:52 pm
Of course is a Bi-election can be justified for Herbert then those reasons may well be applicable to a lot of other electorates. The AEC was seriously underfunded by Abbott to the degree where mistakes were inevitable.
‘It’s pretty irrelevant that he loved football. It’s a bit more relevant that he bashed someone until they were unconscious and then tried to run a policeman down with a car.’
None of it is relevant to what happened in that cell.
The way I see the recordings are that the stripping naked of the young boy happened some time ago and probably the assaults later. it is a bit chicken and egg is’t it.
41 votes…3 booths
Is the NSW premier losing his gloss?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 52s52 seconds ago
#Essential Poll NSW State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (-4) ALP 48 (+4) #nswpol #auspol
diogenes @ #38 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 4:59 pm
This is also thoroughly irrelevant. The prisoner was subjected to unlawful punishment by a public official. The focus here is on the degradation of a juvenile prisoner rather than on finding ways to excuse it.
‘The way I see the recordings are that the stripping naked of the young boy happened some time ago and probably the assaults later. it is a bit chicken and egg is’t it.’
Not really, because what he may or may not have done is not relevant and should have no bearing on the way he was treated.
“None of it is relevant to what happened in that cell.”
True, apart from his propensity to spitting. I’m surprised Australia has anti-spitting hoods but it appears they are allowed, despite the minuscule chance of spreading diseases that way. In hospitals, we just have to put up with patients who spit at us.
Can’t see how they can have a by election in Herbert and not in any other seat. The problems would have to be peculiar to Herbert, surely.
If the argument is based on a number of soldiers missing out, then there should be by elections for all seats those soldiers came from, regardless of the local result.
Upon looking it up, the anti-spitting hoods were brought in by the Qld police after about 400 police put in Workcover claims which cost $800,000 over a four year period. I don’t know what states have them.