The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are questions on issues most influencing vote choice at the election, with health policies (60%) and Medicare (58%) at the top of the list, and favoured priorities for the new government, which likewise have investment in more hospitals and health services (55%) well clear on top, followed by investment in education (31%). The rest of the survey focuses on international affairs, and finds 47% trusting the current government to handle them compared with 46% not doing so, a marked improvement since the question was last asked on Tony Abbott’s watch in May last year, when the numbers were 35% and 58%. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said the relationship with the United States would worsen if Donald Trump became president, with only 7% thinking it would improve, while 24% thought it would improve under Hillary Clinton and 13% that it would worsen. The online survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1018, with the voting intention numbers also including results from last week’s sample.
Zoomster
No it is only where it can be demonstrated that an anomoly affects more people than the number of votes between the candidates. When the number is below say 50 it is fairly easy to find errors or double votes or people denied votes etc that is more than 50.
Hindmarsh is next and there are more than 100 votes difference.
2 booths…39 votes
Will they finish off the last two Herbert booths today?
sohar @ #53 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 5:52 pm
I think so
Unless I’m reading it wrongly, they seem to have finished?
0.5164
Thanks. That looks like McKim is a goner then. Bit disappointing as it would have been good to have more left Senators, but a nice bit of Karma for the Gs in enabling Turnbull’s DD.
Sounds like Justice Virginia Bell was unsympathetic to Baden-Clay’s arguments in theHigh Court.
Her Honour has a lot of sway in criminal matters
adrian @ #55 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 5:55 pm
According to the Herbert page @AEC, North Ward and Rasmussen booths remain to be posted.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-165.htm
ratsak @ #56 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 5:55 pm
It looks like it…all will depend on the pref flows from the minors…looks like
Labor = 5
Lib = 5
G =1
Lambie = 1
recount Capricornia and Flynn farken (and discover big piles of PHON prefs in the Lib pile that should be Lab pile)
Adrian
Look at the date of the data received. They started the recount on Thursday do all the older ones have not been redone. Just tow to go.
Ratsak and Briefly – Kevin Bonham has McKim favourite for last seat ahead of Colbeck and ON.
wakefield @ #62 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:05 pm
Hope so!!
It looks like it…all will depend on the pref flows from the minors…looks like
It would be a bit of a miracle for McKim to get the difference of over 0.06 q back on prefs. Should be plenty of right prefs going the Libs way to keep him in front.
Just goes to support my post in the previous thread that the Majors putting a personally popular candidate in an ‘unwinnable’ spot could be the game plan in Tas from now on and worth thinking about in other states where they wouldn’t expect their surplus to deliver a seat in other states.
Re Herbert, North Ward is a strong Liberal booth and Rasmussen is a strong Labor booth, so they should cancel each other out. The counting is essentially over in Herbert, apart from declaration votes – I’m not sure how the recount of those is processing.
Ratsak – ON did not field a candidate in Capricornia. If they had, Labor probably would’ve won.
Ratsak and Briefly – Kevin Bonham has McKim favourite for last seat ahead of Colbeck and ON.
I know he does, but unless McKim is pulling about 0.6 BTL or there is a particularly strong pref flow to the Greens it’s hard to see. I don’t know how well the prefs are going to Gs v Libs, and obviously with the ‘vote 1-6’ instruction will be a bit stronger than you see in NSW LC, but without evidence of that Colbeck is in the box seat on primaries.
ON did not field a candidate in Capricornia. If they had, Labor probably would’ve won.
Even more reason to hate Pauline.
JD -nothing to do with voting pattern in a booth – it is just correction of votes already counted.
jimmydoyle @ #65 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:10 pm
Scrutineers will be finding votes that could be challenged. Every challenged ballot will be subject to a decision by the Returning Officer. Doubtless, there will be a big stack in each seat. The counts cannot be resolved until every challenged ballot has been either included or excluded. It will be painstaking….no doubt at all.
Wakefield – that’s not really true though. Liberal leaning booths have tended to reduce O’Toole’s margin, while Labor leaning booths have tended to add to it.
Ratsak – its far more complex than that – read the 10 pages of analysis on Kevin Bonham website. The preferences of minor candidates are/will be all over the place. And Colbeck only collects preferences from other BTL votes.
And Colbeck only collects preferences from other BTL votes.
Actually that is a good point that I hadn’t adequately considered. Lib ATL prefs will just help the 4th Lib who is going to be elected anyway get closer to quota. ATL prefs to the Greens all help McKim. That could clearly make up the gap.
ratsak @ #73 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:23 pm
When do they plan to hit the Senate Count Button?
If ever there was a need for constant thorough surveillance by parliaments, it would be child detention.
Shame on Govt and Opposition parliamentarians who are blind to child abuse.
It is voters’ responsibility to remove said politicians from parliaments when the chance arises.
When do they plan to hit the Senate Count Button?
Isn’t it August 8, one month after the election?
At least there’s one member of the Government on top of their brief.
NOT!!!
According to him it’s up to the Media to highlight problems and then he might deal with them.
To put it simply, he has to go.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-26/scullions-interest-not-piqued-before-youth-detention-abuse-video/7662466
C’mon folks. Obviously Sophie retired form politics to concentrate on commentary just so BK could feature her rantings in the Dawn Patrol everyday.
c@tmomma @ #76 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:30 pm
seems like an eternity!
Bernie confirmed his status as a great humanitarian today by, through gritted teeth, endorsing Hilary.
He indeed has started a revolution in the US that will continue to gain momentum even as he fades from the spotlight.
Bernie has paved the way for a brighter future…
To put it simply, he has to go.
Should be a pretty easy scalp for Labor. As noted earlier they will need to be careful of blowback from when they were in charge, but Scullion’s statements are just asking for getting belted in parliament.
Would also love to see Shorten go for Keenan too after his disgraceful slagging of Aly. For a Minister for Justice and Counter-terrorism to get into that sewer should be career destroying.
ratsak @ #81 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:42 pm
I’m surprised that Turnbull hasn’t sacked Keenan. Keenan, Bishop and Simpkins, by attacking Aly and creating a platform for her, really just helped the Labor campaign. They made themselves appear ridiculous and have really just made the task of the Government all the more difficult. Who in their right mind would want to offer professional services to this Government when it may lead to a cynical attack at some time in the future? The LNP do not know how to govern. They are just incompetent on so many levels.
No C@t it’s when they’re ready – when all the ballots have been scanned into the system and the data file is complete. Then, according to Kevin B, they give the parties 24 hours notice so they can some a watch (and lodge any last minute complaints about the data entry), and then they hit Go, or Compute, or whatever the fancy icon says. And then the computer spits out the answer in a few minutes. Expected in the next day or two in Tassie. (Already done in the NT cos it was so easy.)
The LNP are also malevolent on so many levels. How many circles of hell are there? 7? Well the Coalition have sunk to all of them.
Who in their right mind would want to offer professional services to this Government when it may lead to a cynical attack at some time in the future?
Absolutely. The dopes just think everything is a ‘political’ opportunity.
Thanks, Jack.
Signed,
A Noob. : )
The NT government is getting a real pasting on The Drum.
One point made is that NT Gov should not be taking the lead over a Royal Commission. It should be Commonwealth.
BK, are you the guy in the suit and wheelchair?
Just watched the 4C’s programme.
Apart from the appalling stuff, the usual responses came out.
The LNP responsible Ministers (local and Federal) played the 3-monkey card – I heard nothing: I saw nothing: I have nothing to say. However, and how reassuring is this? “Now I have seen the vision I am shocked! Shocked I tell you!”
rex douglas @ #80 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:39 pm
The Democratic Party will need all the strength they can summon to defeat Trump, that’s for sure. I really hope they can do it. Someone has to lead America away from the precipice of despair. The challenge before Hillary Clinton is really very great. If she can do it, she will prove herself to be a remarkable President. It looks like the usual suspects will try to foil her just as they foiled Al Gore in 2000. The spoilers and the splitters are potential wreckers just as they have proven to be in the UK.
Wasn’t it also the case that, during the extended Pre Poll period for the remote areas of the Northern Territory, one whole remote community polling centre failed to arrive and so every voter in that area was disenfranchised?
Re-vote all seats and the Senate in the NT NOW!
(Post 4Corners ; ) )
And the NT wants Statehood! I think the Cth should repeal the NT Self-Government Act and reimpose direct rule by a Department of Territories. Most of the Cth Public Service (Border FORCE! excepted) still has a tradition of competence and governing according to the rules.
North Ward has been completed…one booth remains…37 votes the margin!!
A competent Opposition should’ve been all over the Govt you’d have thought as well
This is the Crikey editorial from earlier today. And to all the Same Sex Marriage advocates who just think SSM will be a formality after the plebiscite, I urge you to read this and be afraid, be very afraid:
Quit stalling: the government can walk and chew gum
The groundwork is being laid to delay the ultimate delaying tactic — the same-sex marriage plebiscite.
Barnaby Joyce this morning used horrific revelations of abuse of children in juvenile detention to suggest that the plebiscite might not happen as quickly as we would like. He’s not the first to suggest as much — Malcolm Turnbull did so last week as well on 7.30, though he didn’t have so topical an excuse.
The royal commission into the abuse of children in juvenile detention should be a top priority, but the government can walk and chew gum at the same time, and nothing should prevent both matters from being undertaken quickly.
Before taking the leadership, Turnbull warned his party that if this matter wasn’t dealt with quickly, it would linger and be a continual distraction for the government. His words then were arguing against a plebiscite, but ring true now of the conservative push to delay the plebiscite. Cory Bernardi and Eric Abetz tried to use the election result (which turfed many same-sex marriage opponents out of Parliament) as some sort of need for the government to reassess its priorities. Now Joyce is finding new excuses to delay the inevitable.
Attorney-General George Brandis said on Sunday that, subject to AEC advice and passing legislation for it, the plebiscite could be held before the end of the year or early next year. If the divisive and expensive plebiscite is the only way, the government has an obligation to stick to this timetable, and tell us when exactly it will be held as soon as possible.
Of course, there is a way to deal with same-sex marriage that would take a minimal amount of time and effort on the part of Australia’s parliamentarians. The government could simply allow a free vote to take place. It’d mean parliamentarians would have to vote only once, as opposed to once to allow a plebiscite, and again to implement it (not counting the cost to the public purse of a plebiscite). But this has never been about dealing with the issues quickly and efficiently. On same-sex marriage, the government is stalling.
rex douglas @ #80 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:39 pm
I doubt the Democrat’s leftward shift was started by Bernie. The demographic changes from the past 20 years that has allowed his candidacy to be anywhere near competitive (i.e. older, more moderate Democrats being replaced with more liberal, younger voters) predate Sanders’ candidacy; as well as Sanderesque movements within the Democratic Party like Occupy Wall Street and The 99%.
IMO, Sanders rather represents the percolation of these demographic changes and the organization of these disparate and somewhat obscure movements to the national conscience of the party through his Presidential candidacy, especially in regards to the power of Social Media in mobilizing otherwise disengaged voters.
Which isn’t to say that what he has accomplished isn’t extraordinary, but this Berning Fire’s fuel was laid long before Sanders stepped onto the national scene.
New election now !!!
One thing we also should remember, in light of last night’s 4 Corners episode, is that the government has Anti Whistleblower legislation on it’s books which would make it much more difficult for this sort of thing to see the light of day in the future.
I am not sure Bernie will truly ‘fade from the spotlight’ for some time yet.
He has triggered a wonderful movement but it will still need the framework and philosophising that goes with a social justice push.
He is still positioned and well loved enough to keep his followers feeding the fire until it is well and truly burning bright.
Millenial
Sure.
Bernie though is the one that has cut through and gained real traction.
Only genuine leaders can do that… and there a very few of those around sadly.