Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Labor gains a point in the latest Essential Research poll, which emphasises the importance of health issues in the recent election result, and records deep concern at the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are questions on issues most influencing vote choice at the election, with health policies (60%) and Medicare (58%) at the top of the list, and favoured priorities for the new government, which likewise have investment in more hospitals and health services (55%) well clear on top, followed by investment in education (31%). The rest of the survey focuses on international affairs, and finds 47% trusting the current government to handle them compared with 46% not doing so, a marked improvement since the question was last asked on Tony Abbott’s watch in May last year, when the numbers were 35% and 58%. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said the relationship with the United States would worsen if Donald Trump became president, with only 7% thinking it would improve, while 24% thought it would improve under Hillary Clinton and 13% that it would worsen. The online survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1018, with the voting intention numbers also including results from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,360 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #3344 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:57 pm

    You made erroneous judgements about me and posted crap about my motivations. Just like you have with others in the recent past.
    I’m entitled to correct the record as it pertains to me.
    Otherwise, you can blather away to your hearts content.

    Well correct the record then. What were your motivations in calling ‘me’ irrelevant then if they were not to render my points of view irrelevant by way of personalising your denigration? And what were you implying when you used the phrase reserving your vituperation (verbal abuse or castigation; violent denunciation or condemnation) if it were not to imply you thought it relevant?

  2. Pysclaw

    Display Name

    Suggest you be googling “psychoanalysis”. Haven’t ever seen that going on here, amateur or otherwise.

    The Wiki description is pretty accurate.

    I don’t really care what we name what goes on here.

  3. Back from my visit to ABS HQ with a hardcopy of the census form it seems as the envelope was addressed to occupier a number of people thought it was junk mail and did just that. At least I opened it then misplaced it and unknowingly binned it. Lucky I live in Canberra. alls well that ends well must remember to fill it now, cheers.

  4. Good Morning

    Regarding the Census
    Asher_Wolf: “400,000 requests for paper forms.” 400,000 Australians who have actively made a request for a paper form. Mind boggling. #CensusFail

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