Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Labor gains a point in the latest Essential Research poll, which emphasises the importance of health issues in the recent election result, and records deep concern at the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency.

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, which has so far provided us with the only post-election polling, finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred this week, to record a lead of 52-48. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are questions on issues most influencing vote choice at the election, with health policies (60%) and Medicare (58%) at the top of the list, and favoured priorities for the new government, which likewise have investment in more hospitals and health services (55%) well clear on top, followed by investment in education (31%). The rest of the survey focuses on international affairs, and finds 47% trusting the current government to handle them compared with 46% not doing so, a marked improvement since the question was last asked on Tony Abbott’s watch in May last year, when the numbers were 35% and 58%. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said the relationship with the United States would worsen if Donald Trump became president, with only 7% thinking it would improve, while 24% thought it would improve under Hillary Clinton and 13% that it would worsen. The online survey was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1018, with the voting intention numbers also including results from last week’s sample.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,360 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #3244 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    This week’s Essential shows that the voters appear to:
    1. Regard the ABC as he the least biased political/news organisation.
    2. Have little residual love for Kevvie.
    This must chagrin the usual suspects on PB.

    I haven’t read the question, but it may just reflect recognition that they acknowledge he is gone and not coming back. I am in that camp.

  2. Adrian – Robbie Buck? The Buckwit? Dont get me started.

    Sorry, I forgot Robbie Buck (I was probably trying to sublimate the memory). And Macca! Why do you go out of your way to upset me?

    I’ve noticed that Macca now touts his own non-ABC web site. “Macca.com.au” or similar.

  3. GG,

    I have suspected all along that Trumps candidacy would end in tears.
    For himself and the republican party.
    Trump will come to the decision pretty soon that he has bitten off way more than he can chew.
    How much of his own money will he be prepared to throw away for what is becoming increasingly obvious is a doomed attempt for the presidency.
    How much money will the Republicans and their traditional big money backers want to waste on a candidate who they hate and think is unsuitable for the job.
    The Clinton campaign has money to burn.
    During the primary Clinton was constantly outspent by the Sanders campaign.
    Many people wondered why Clinton barely spent a cent in California etc.
    Well she didnt need to.
    As I said on Super Tuesday 1(March 1st) The contest between Clinton and Sanders was over at that time.
    Clinton knew it.
    The political press knew it.
    Anyone who knew anything about US politics knew it.
    Sure, a few imbeciles put their faith in the FBI, hack press like The Young Turks, their own twitter and facebook feeds and on the fact a probably sick or injured bird decided to land on a podium one time and kept spruiking for Sanders and their own selfish self interest.
    The Clinton campaign were able to be very selective in how much they spent in fighting Sanders because they knew early on that they had won the nomination.
    The Clinton campaign is cashed up, have all the genuine Bernie progressives on board and she will be president.
    When political commentators and pollsters are seriously contemplating Clinton being competitive in states like Georgia then one can only look forward to the custerfuck that will be the Trump campaign.

  4. BB
    Well, I cant unremember ‘plunker’ but I can stop myself from visiting macca.com.au

    Its a shame; the idea of the show has great merit.

  5. Interesting experience with Telstra recently that may be of interest.

    I noticed the cover of a pit at the corner of the street was broken and partly caved in, making it a hazard, and reported it via the Telstra website.

    Next thing I got a call to confirm the exact location and to advise they would be onto it in a couple of days. Being curious I engaged in a bit of discussion with the Telstra guy about what they would do exactly, noting it was an asbestos cement pit. I was told it would be replaced but he couldn’t tell me how this would be done without cutting and re-connecting cables.

    Next thing, a very large yellow plastic cover was installed over the pit to make it safe. Well done Telstra.

    Now a notice arrived in the letterbox with the envelope stamped on the outside ‘Important Notification – Planned Asbestos Work in Area’. The notice inside gave a lot of detail about the work to be done by a contractor and the stringent precautions to be taken.

    These pits are all over the place.

    Wouldn’t it just be easier to replace all while putting in Fibre Optic Cable which would probably not require as many? :/

  6. Simon Katich,

    Steve Inane, hahahahaha
    That is exactly the name I give him every time I see him putting on the big boy tie and hosting The Drum or Lateline.
    My memories of him were as host of ‘Hack’ on JJJ.
    Could there have been a more appropriate name for a show hosted by him?

  7. Colton, what are your thoughts on how the Democratic party handled the primaries, in particular the likes of Debbie Wasserman Schultz? Were they truly impartial? Would it have mattered if they weren’t?

  8. colton @ #3262 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:04 pm

    Simon Katich,
    Steve Inane, hahahahaha
    That is exactly the name I give him every time I see him putting on the big boy tie and hosting The Drum or Lateline.
    My memories of him were as host of ‘Hack’ on JJJ.
    Could there have been a more appropriate name for a show hosted by him?

    Why the loathing of Steve Cannane?
    I still have pleasant memories of him taking Greg Hunt apart on Lateline.

  9. Colton,
    [Could there have been a more appropriate name for a show hosted by him?]
    Thats hilarious! I failed to make that connection.

  10. P1,

    Analysts have predicted 10 of the last zero housing crashes. But they still keep writing the same doom and gloom scenarios.

    Sure, there may be a surplus of new apartments in the inner cities. However, you’re traditional housing market will choof along. I have spoken to a couple of agents recently and their complaint is not lack of buyers but a lack of saleable product.

    The market may not increase at 10-15% but it will still continue growing.

  11. markjs @ #3129 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 10:50 am

    Just a quick fly-by from the resident PB “seagull”..
    Psyclaw
    Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 9:04 am
    “Bemused Comrade @8.12am
    What bemuses me is that over the past 3 or 4 days when she has made herself look quite silly with the intensity and frequency of her obsessional Rudd hatred, given that (a) you and I and maybe others are on her STFU list and (b) by my count at least 6 moderate PBers not including me and ye have criticised her for this, not one of her usually quick-on-the-draw ardent protectors has had the gonads to counsel her about this.
    Their silence is deafening.”
    Bemused is an out & out bully who uses Tory tactics of constantly repeating lies & mis-information about Kevin Rudd (for whom he appears to have an unhealthy and immovable man-love). Confessions is the current target for his bullying behaviour, ably supported by a couple of PB regulars.
    I don’t get involved too much in the Rudd/Gillard flame wars (I have a life outside PB), but the past couple of days of Confession baiting/bashing by Bemused & his gang impels me to openly and clearly support her and her posts over that at period.
    Confessions has every right to express her well known negative views of Kevin Rudd, and Bemused has every right to express his. However, Bemused always resorts to ridicule and personal abuse when this issue comes up …Dog knows why he often reflects on what he perceives as the poster’s mental state, or need to take their medication, given his stated personal tragedy..
    Bemused now sits back and, Abbott-like, enjoys the spectacle of his gang members attacking Confessions. This is cowardly, bullying behaviour worthy of any Tory thug ..and I for one won’t silently sit at my computer & witness his attempted demolition of Confessions..
    (Note: Bemused only seems to behave in this way towards female posters..)

    Bemused or Rudd have nothing to do with my reasons for calling out Confessions on her behaviour. I have already explained my reasons for doing so but people instead choose to jump to their own conclusions. I am my own person and I would be critical of anyone condoning Turnbull’s atrocious behaviour in pretending to support and then not doing so while publicly humiliating the one he gave the impression had his support, even if the diplomat seeking an appointment at the UN was a Liberal ex politician I dislike.

    It’s a matter of principle. It s actions and behaviour I focus upon, not personalities. Principles before personalities. I don’t do blind allegiance bandwagons ever. That’s not my style. So if you want to criticise me for calling out Confessions, criticise me, not another who has nothing to do with it.

  12. I have spoken to a couple of agents recently and their complaint is not lack of buyers but a lack of saleable product.

    Spoke to one in Sydney only this afternoon who told me the same thing.

  13. CBA have passed on 0.13% of the 0.25% bp drop in interest rates.
    This partial pass through was expected by analysts.

  14. nicole @ #3268 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:18 pm

    markjs @ #3129 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 10:50 am

    Just a quick fly-by from the resident PB “seagull”..

    Bemused or Rudd have nothing to do with my reasons for calling out Confessions on her behaviour. I have already explained my reasons for doing so but people instead choose to jump to their own conclusions. I am my own person and I would be critical of anyone condoning Turnbull’s atrocious behaviour in pretending to support and then not doing so while publicly humiliating the one he gave the impression had his support, even if the diplomat seeking an appointment at the UN was a Liberal ex politician I dislike.
    It’s a matter of principle. It s actions and behaviour I focus upon, not personalities. Principles before personalities. I don’t do blind allegiance bandwagons ever. That’s not my style. So if you want to criticise me for calling out Confessions, criticise me, not another who has nothing to do with it.

    I have been calling out Confessions since long before you started posting. I think I can reasonably claim to be the first to have woken up to her ‘games’.

    t seems that now you and a few others have cottoned on. Or maybe some were just intimidated into silence before.

  15. GG

    I have spoken to a couple of agents recently and their complaint is not lack of buyers but a lack of saleable product.

    Anyone who believes anything a real-estate agent says … well, let’s just say I have a bridge for sale if you’re interested!

  16. [I think I can reasonably claim to be the first to have woken up to her ‘games’. t seems that now you and a few others have cottoned on. Or maybe some were just intimidated into silence before.]

    Is this Pollbludger or Summer Bay?

  17. Nicole

    So if you want to criticise me for calling out Confessions, criticise me, not another who has nothing to do with it.

    Not defending Confessions here (I have not been following this thread closely, so I am not sure what you are calling her out for) but bemused has a long history on PB of ‘stalking’ particular female posters, including Confessions. This might help explain some of the animosity you see here.

  18. P1,
    You’d better move in to a cave then.

    I actually have weekly statistics that show the volume of available stock available for sale is quite low at the moment. Part of this is seasonal. But, low product availability and an abundance of buyers is what is keeping the market bouyant at the moment.

    But, hey you go with your ignorance.

  19. player one @ #3276 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:36 pm

    Nicole

    So if you want to criticise me for calling out Confessions, criticise me, not another who has nothing to do with it.

    Not defending Confessions here (I have not been following this thread closely, so I am not sure what you are calling her out for) but bemused has a long history on PB of ‘stalking’ particular female posters, including Confessions. This might help explain some of the animosity you see here.

    That is just plain ordinary BS.

  20. greensborough growler @ #3270 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:25 pm

    CBA have passed on 0.13% of the 0.25% bp drop in interest rates.
    This partial pass through was expected by analysts.

    A couple of questions:
    1. Is the failure to pass on the full cut justified by the cost of money to the banks or is it a desire to bolster profit margins?
    2. Are all the major banks expected to follow the CBA lead?

  21. TPOF,

    The prices in the markets where the Banks buy there money have been moving up in recent times. So, the Banks’ margins have been squeezed. But, the market is so competitive that they have not been able to recoup the costs in the market place.

    CBA are the rabbits this time. So, the others will make their calls in the next few days. But, I’d expect the majors to be around the same reduction.

  22. I’ve been considering the matter, and it seems to me that markjs’ comments, which have been supported by a number of people, can be summarised as such:

    1) Bumused is sometimes mean, and therefore anyone who (vaguely) agrees with him on something regarding someone else’s behaviour, is also mean, and obviously not worthy of consideration. And is a member of a gang. With bandannas and stuff.

    2) This is a free country, and Confessions can say whatever she god-damn pleases, because we have the right to be biggots, right? We all agree with that, right?

    I’ll probably go back to cut and pasting the odd bit of trivia after this. And continue to have never interacted with Bemused, ever. And wear my cool bandanna.

  23. Nicole
    You are fairly new here and have yet to encounter the delights of GG. Do not bother about GG. He must have had an RDO and a long lunch.

    He can be quite decent sometimes but at others!!!!!!

    He is however a committed extreme ALP Right Winger – he makes no secret of it and is true to his beliefs which I admire him for. However he does tend to follow the factional line when told.

  24. moksha @ #3283 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:49 pm

    I’ve been considering the matter, and it seems to me that markjs’ comments, which have been supported by a number of people, can be summarised as such:
    1) Bumused is sometimes mean, and therefore anyone who (vaguely) agrees with him on something regarding someone else’s behaviour, is also mean, and obviously not worthy of consideration. And is a member of a gang. With bandannas and stuff.
    2) This is a free country, and Confessions can say whatever she god-damn pleases, because we have the right to be biggots, right? We all agree with that, right?
    I’ll probably go back to cut and pasting the odd bit of trivia after this. And continue to have never interacted with Bemused, ever. And wear my cool bandanna.

    Are you sure we have not interacted?

    Anyway, I enjoy your posts and if we haven’t interacted it is probably because I entirely agreed and had nothing to add.

  25. greensborough growler @ #3277 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:36 pm

    P1,
    You’d better move in to a cave then.
    I actually have weekly statistics that show the volume of available stock available for sale is quite low at the moment. Part of this is seasonal. But, low product availability and an abundance of buyers is what is keeping the market bouyant at the moment.
    But, hey you go with your ignorance.

    Stock is lower than normal because of the market uncertainty. Part of this is because the general economic outlook for Australia is quite bad, and part of it is because many analysts are saying the market is at or near the peak and future price movements will likely be down.

    But hey, you leverage yourself to the hilt. It’s your money!

  26. greensborough growler @ #3282 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:49 pm

    TPOF,
    The prices in the markets where the Banks buy there money have been moving up in recent times. So, the Banks’ margins have been squeezed. But, the market is so competitive that they have not been able to recoup the costs in the market place.
    CBA are the rabbits this time. So, the others will make their calls in the next few days. But, I’d expect the majors to be around the same reduction.

    Thanks. I hope depositors don’t get screwed by having their interest cut by the full RBA cut.

  27. Nicole

    …I am my own person and I would be critical of anyone condoning Turnbull’s atrocious behaviour in pretending to support and then not doing so while publicly humiliating the one he gave the impression had his support…

    Rudd admitted that Turnbull told him on budget eve that he wasn’t going to support him.

    Why would Rudd then continue on…?

  28. TPOF,

    Depositors always get screwed.
    The stock market is on a run atm. P1 has alerted me to cave futures as being a winner
    Or, there is always the TAB. There’s a winner in every race.

  29. sprocket_ @ #3284 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Remember on election night and days after the hysterical chanting from Turnbull and his cohort about the “texts from Medicare” which were sent by the ALP and somehow duped enough voters to put the result on the knife edge?
    And Turnbull reported it to the AFP. Well they have examined the matter, and announced this:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Co1OO5lUIAA-9sw?format=jpg&name=large

    No Commonwealth offences were identified

    It was patently obvious on the night because ‘Medicare’ is both an organisation and a universally used descriptor for Commonwealth government funding for health care (even where it actually is not part of the Medicare scheme at all, such as hospital funds given to state governments.

    What a bunch of whinging, whining losers we have retained as our government!

    The only good that has come out of this is that as long as these whingers really believe they lost because of an unfair scare campaign by Labor, they will not examine their own policies and interactions with ordinary voters to see what the people want. They seem permanently stuck in the mindset that they have all the answers and the only problem is coming up with a leader who can provide a suitably sugar coated explanation of why they need to swallow the medicine prescribed by the IPA.

  30. [You’re not relevnt enough for anyone to deign to criticise.]

    I would have thought that applied to everyone here, but it sure hasn’t stopped anyone.

  31. greensborough growler @ #3291 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 4:01 pm

    P1,
    I didn’t think that facts would way you.
    They never do!

    The only fact you have given is that real estate stock is unusually low. But you obviously haven’t bothered to try and understand why this should be, and why it does not simply signal an endless price boom.

  32. bemused @ #3256 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    daretotread @ #3251 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 2:51 pm

    Bemused
    “there is a bear in there”

    And it wants to keep it’s naval base in Syria.
    So it supports Assad and will not let him lose. Unless of course he becomes expendable as others guarantee their interests.

    Is that not the SAME point as I am making Bemused.

    USA has an airbase in Turkey and wants to keep it. So it supports the Erdogan of Turkey and will not let him become too friendly with the opposition. Unless of course he becomes expendable as others guarantee their interests.

    Surely the point is access to the Black Sea. If Turkey leans towards Russia, there is NOTHING the USA could do to protect Ukraine or Georgia or the Balkan states.

    The USA will need to act decisively if there is any evidence of Turkey being too far in the Russian camp.

    However the possibility that the USA was involved in the coup and Erdogan knows it, is actually a HUGE strategic miscalculation by the USA, if true. It has turned an friend to an enemy.

  33. The following is not directed at any specific person because I see this behaviour on all sides – sometimes I even catch myself doing it :P.

    It would be better if there were fewer words spent commenting on other members. Frequently, I suspect that such commentaries are unsubtle attempts to to alienate them.

    We are more than capable of reading their posts ourselves and and coming to our own conclusions. I don’t need to rely on someone else’s amateur psycho-analysis when I have my own (amateur psycho-analysis) :P.

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