Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. imacca @ #2344 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 11:30 pm

    Wow. 4Corners tonight was disturbing. The minister seemed to think it was an issue of “training” ?? Not out and out sadism?? Really, as the fed govt stepped in and stopped the live cattle trade a while over cruelty to cows they really should be seen to take action pretty damn fast to establish if the 4C story has any basis and if it does exactly which people should be in jail.

    I completely agree. Very disturbing.

  2. Tonight during Four Corners there was a lot of swearing, yelling at the TV, tears and 0utrage in our lounge room tonight, most of it from me. Mum was shocked almost speechless but I agreed with her suggestion of locking up everyone from the NT Premier down to the guards being gaoled in the same facility.

  3. what with NT and tasmania etc we are certainly overgoverned in this country – (what do tasmanian senators actually do?) regional units, roughly same pop, no remnant colonially appointed states, commonwealth another thins, upper houses??

  4. geoffrey @ #2350 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 12:10 am

    btw i thought panel was bit softly softly on freedom of speech issue and sonia k question tonight – as if hey its ok to express emotions and fear even if misinformed (including the case of france) and celebrated by far right in this country – zero tolerance for some things, esp from hanson – i hope the speaker begins to eject her and parties play hardball as in past

    Yeah I thought so too and Gillian Triggs seemed a lot more subdued than she used to be. She seemed overly conscious of not appearing partial or partisan. That pisses me off. I am sick and tired of the bully boys in the Liberal Party.

  5. I would be checking the records of every one of those guards at the Don Dale centre. There was something just not right about the way they stripped that young boy and sat on him.

    Dangerous men!

  6. puff, the magic dragon. @ #2352 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 12:14 am

    Tonight during Four Corners there was a lot of swearing, yelling at the TV, tears and 0utrage in our lounge room tonight, most of it from me. Mum was shocked almost speechless but I agreed with her suggestion of locking up everyone from the NT Premier down to the guards being gaoled in the same facility.

    Yeah, I was like your Mum, and she is right. They should do time. I’m still in shock.

  7. nicole

    why would anyone need to cowtow to liberals when it come to anti muslim rubbish – hanson and kruger need to be called out again and again, rationally legally professionally – until they get it right – kruger should not be there – as for last week q and a and jones/hanson, dont get me started

  8. DTT

    There was something just not right about the way they stripped that young boy and sat on him.

    There was nothing bloody right with it. Full Damn Stop.

  9. DTT

    There was something just not right about the way they stripped that young boy and sat on him.

    There was nothing bloody right with it. Full Damn Stop.

    Absolutely. I do however agree with Trigg’s opinion tonight that some kind of formal inquiry must establish the facts. I dont think that should take very long however. Unless someone can prove a case that the video evidence is staged its pretty damning. there is going to be no “oh its taking the situation out of context” crap about this. It’ s abuse pure and simple.

    Very disturbing that these guards knew there were cameras (in one sequence they tried to obscure it?) but dont seem to have cared?? Implies they thought it was all good to behave that way?? FFS this is very very wrong on so many levels. NT govt needs to answer for this.

  10. Q&A was good tonight…not too much waffling and not a lot of grandstanding…good questions.

    I haven’t had a chance to see 4 corners yet…sounds horrendous.

  11. Nicole,
    Whether Adam Giles is Indigenous or not, he identifies as same and therefore it is doubly horrifying that he could grandstand about it for his own benefit but turn around and sanction those things, because the buck stops with him, happening to young people, mostly of his own race.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I enjoyed QandA last night. Neither Laundy or Husic descended into blaming the other side of politics.
    There are rather rich pickings today.

    I couldn’t bring myself to continue watching 4 Corners after a few minutes last night. It must have been sickening and worthy of immediate and thorough examination. Gillian Triggs agrees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-four-corners-gillian-triggs-calls-for-inquiry-into-youth-detention-abuse-20160725-gqdkjj.html
    This is how it’s done! The Washington Post comes out and warns the country about Trump being a danger to the nation and to the world.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/washington-post-editorial-donald-trump-a-danger-to-the-nation-and-the-world-20160725-gqdda8.html
    NRL players certainly have style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/st-george-illawarra-dragons/st-george-illawarras-tim-lafai-arrested-over-drunken-brawl-20160725-gqd6e7.html
    The OIC channels FIFA in announcing this decision. Is this the beginning of the end for the Games?
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/olympics/rio-2016/rio-olympics-2016-the-ioc-passes-the-buck-on-russia–and-turns-games-into-a-farce-20160725-gqd0y4.html
    More on the subject from Shaun Carney. Google.
    /news/opinion/olympic-games-a-great-idea-eroded-by-greed/news-story/69bbf1b4ad36576ff04c9020d958aa88
    Curtis Cheng’s son gives Hanson a public slap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/curtis-chengs-son-calls-on-pauline-hanson-to-stop-referencing-his-dad-in-racial-comments-20160725-gqcx7o.html
    The expert money managers’ SSM plebiscite cost is blowing out even before it is defined.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cost-of-turnbull-governments-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-could-rise-20160725-gqczau.html
    Peter Hartcher says the government should support Rudd’s nomination and tells us why.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/cabinet-should-put-aside-political-differences-and-back-kevin-rudd-for-united-nations-secretarygeneral-20160725-gqd1jl.html
    It’s all over for the Dick Smith outfit as creditors finally vote to liquidate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/dick-smith-creditors-vote-to-wind-up-retailer-20160725-gqdia3.html
    Michael Pascoe welcomes us to the age of fear, exemplified by Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-the-donald-trump-and-pauline-hanson-circus-can-teach-australia-20160725-gqczc8.html
    The SMH editorial says much the same as it analyses Trump’s acceptance speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/donald-trump-evokes-pauline-hanson-and-brexit-20160722-gqbaaq.html

  13. Sprocket

    I wonder why I don’t feel reassured by Giles’ statement.
    Nor by Craig Laundy (sp?) on Q&A: he will “speak to the PM”.

  14. Section 2 . . .

    John Oliver reveals the real theme of the GOP convention as only he can.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/07/25/john-oliver-reveals-the-real-theme-of-the-2016-gop-convention/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    This allegation from the Democratic Party about Russia’s involvement with Trump’s ascension is simply frightening.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/dnchack-allegations-of-russian-involvement-taken-seriously-by-white-house-20160725-gqd826.html
    In typical Greg Jericho fashion he puts the sword to the “welfare is killing us” mantra with pesky fats.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jul/25/cutting-welfare-means-hitting-those-who-are-already-among-the-poorest-greg-jericho
    Eric Abetz hates prejudice abroad unless it helps promote it at home.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/07/25/eric-abetz-hates-prejudice-abroad-unless-it-helps-promote-it-at-home/
    Norm Francis writes on Krugers, Bolts and glass houses.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/krugers-bolts-and-glass-houses,9278
    The New Daily posits that Sonia Kruger is not a racist – rather she is a naive pawn in the habds of terrorists.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2016/07/19/sonia-kruger-racist/
    Scott Morrison tells the world that he will not back down on superannuation. So stand by for a back flip. Google.
    /news/politics/scott-morrison-holds-line-on-super-ahead-of-draft-legislation-release-20160724-gqcumc
    This seminarian supports celibacy and says it is not the cause of priestly sexual abuses. I wondered when reading this just what psychological damage is done to certain individuals during the “formation” process.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/celibacy-isnt-the-cause-of-sexual-abuse-20160725-gqd7g4.html
    Andrew Street uses his whole column to serve it up to Mike Baird.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/heres-some-ideas-for-mike-bairds-next-picture-books-for-schoolchildren-20160722-gqbbcj.html
    Linda Burney hits the ground running and lambasts Nigel Scullion’s performance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/linda-burney-blasts-nigel-scullion-as-a-failed-indigenous-affairs-minister-20160725-gqczn0.html

  15. Section 3 . . .

    How Lisa Singh beat Labor’s machine men. I hope there’s a lesson for them here!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/how-lisa-singh-beat-labors–machine-men-20160725-gqdf05.html
    There are quite a few of the world’s economies that are really under stress. It’s a bit of a worry.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2016/07/22/economies-to-watch/
    The latest renewable energy myths from Murdoch and the Coalition. It’s appalling!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-latest-renewable-energy-myths-from-murdoch-and-thecoalition,9276
    Ace reporter Michael West on the scandalous handling of mine closures and remediation.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/mine-voids-big-party-now-for-the-hangover/
    A fall at the first hurdle for Turnbull’s latest attempt at university reform.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbulls-plans-for-university-reform-in-trouble-as-vice-chancellors-unite-against-flagship-courses-20160725-gqd8kz.html
    This is a good laterally thinking proposal to curb TV and radio betting ads.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/gambling-reform-plan-to-cut-fees-for-tv-networks-that-reject-betting-ads-20160724-gqcic3.html
    The steepest residential street in the world.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/07/25/the-steepest-street-in-the-world-is-not-for-the-faint-of-heart/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  16. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox on how the be responsible for nothing.

    Ron Tandberg with the census collector.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Great work from David Pope on Labor’s factional structure. His depiction of Kim Carr is superb. And I wonder if he’s going to keep on using a duck-like image of Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    At the Olympic village courtesy of David Rowe.

    Mark Knight with Dan Andrews’ youth problem.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9419538659a3d6fd8bc7fe23b048f141?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    Jon Kudelka with the scrutineers in Herbert.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b0bb0dae89435abd886c566930525656

  17. Malcolm Turnbull and Adam Giles have announced a Royal Commission into the issues raised by last night’s Four Corners.

  18. Malcolm Turnbull and Adam Giles have announced a Royal Commission into the issues raised by last night’s Four Corners.

    Malcolm Turnbull & Adam Giles have initiated a Responsibility Deflection Exercise in the run-up to the August Northern Territory Election after serious issues were raised last night by 4 Corners.

    There. Fixed it. : )

  19. c@tmomma @ #2364 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 6:08 am

    Nicole,
    Whether Adam Giles is Indigenous or not, he identifies as same and therefore it is doubly horrifying that he could grandstand about it for his own benefit but turn around and sanction those things, because the buck stops with him, happening to young people, mostly of his own race.

    Agreed.

  20. Nicole,
    Sorry if my 6.08 was a bit garbled but I was having to type it then rush out the door to pick up a mate of my son who has lost his license, and then drive him to work. : )

  21. Morning all. I haven’t watched 4Corners but have read online about the appalling abuses in the Don Dale centre. I’m pleased to see the fed and NT govts are taking this seriously and announcing an RC into the matter.

  22. Honestly, the thought of 3 Authoritarian regimes, Putin in Russia, Xi in China, and Trump in America, joining together to control the world and exploiting the disaffected youth who don’t want to support ‘Establishment politicians’ and who have supported Sanders in the US but will not support Clinton, and as exemplified by Edward Snowden, Julian Assange and Wikileaks, just fills me with horror.

    The things those very smart, but ultimately misguided young people could do if they join hands and work with Trump. Talk about the Tea Party on steroids! More like the Tea Party on Human Growth Hormone!

    Speaking of which, yesterday when I was traveling back from Sydney Airport, we stopped in at a service station for some coffees and, as we were getting ours (4 petite women and girls ; ) ), these 3 giant men came into the 7-11 to get coffee also. Each of them must have been 7 foot tall but they weren’t skinny reeds but solid and very muscular. Not in a ‘bag of walnuts’ kind of way but in a larger-than-life superhuman kind of way.

    When they finally spoke it was with Russian accents and they stood behind and were very intimidating (which wasn’t a hard effect to achieve, I must say) and just kept saying, “I must have coffee!”

    As my friend said later, (back in the car when they couldn’t hear us : ) ), “Please excuse the coffee machine for taking as long as it does to make the coffee!”, however I just got the impression it was one of those barely-controlled rage type of situations and I wondered about whether Putin would be trying to create genetically-enhanced Russians like this as part of his master plan to re-establish hegemony and control with those other leaders and hiding them away in Australia?

    I know that may sound paranoid and far-fetched, but right now, that’s what the world seems to be coming to and it doesn’t seem such a crazy idea at all!

  23. I’ve been following the Democrat convention. It certainly hasn’t gotten off to a great start for Hillary, although I’m not sure how significant that is in the overall scheme of things.

  24. C@tmomma. I don’t think any young, disaffected lefties are going to join forces with the Trump campaign anytime soon. Perhaps some of the older registered Democrats in the eastern seaboard and mid-West states who supported Sanders will vote for Trump in November. That’s about the full extent of it, I suspect.

    Also, as I explained yesterday, I don’t think Trump is in any way an authoritarian. He is a showman/snake oil salesman. As President,. I would expect him to build his wall (which won’t work), try to tear up a few free trade agreements, make some symbolic trips to meet the likes of Putin, Xi, the Palestinians, etc. and tell them that everything is different now. And then probably slide into a state of inaction and not even bother to run for re-election in 2020.

  25. Meher baba,
    Did you hear the Sanders’ delegates booing Bernie Sanders today at the Democrats’ Convention?

    Also Edward Snowden was an idealistic young man from the Left and look where he is now. Some say he developed the hack, along with other Russians, which sourced the DNC emails.

  26. I didnt see 4corners last night, but it must have been rather shocking for Turnbull to pop up first thing this morning to announce a RC

  27. Victoria:

    I’ve seen some images on social media this morning, and I don’t think I could bring myself to watch 4C.

  28. Re the postcard.
    I noticed that there were inverted circumflexes over some letters. I did not think this existed in German and I thought they may have been slavic words. However, further reading shows that the breve existed in some obsolete styles of handwriting to distinguish “n” from “u”. I think this postcard may be difficult for many contemporary Germans to read.

  29. Good Morning

    The ABC proved why we fund it yet again last night.

    I hope the Royal Commission just announced by Turnbull does bring about permanent change.

    Its a wait and see as we saw with black deaths in custody we have done this before. I don’t want a repeat of that I want change. I want a country I can be proud of not having this abuse of children happening.

    Gillian Triggs nailed it with her comment on QandA that we need to change this administrative policy of detention culture.

  30. Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor · 1h1 hour ago

    PM refers @4corners program to Royal Commission .
    Demonstrates why we need Ind ABC and more truly investigative journalism not defunding

  31. On the Democratic Convention I think Nate Silver has nailed it.
    NateSilver538: Big cheers for adopting party platform. This convention may be a shitshow — most gatherings of Democrats are — but not yet a clusterfuck.

  32. I bet Peter Dutton is battening down the hatches even tighter today. Cannot avoid making the comparison between NT abuses and detention abuses.

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