Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Don
    IMO, true about Germany but au contraire re: France. We had a ball playing around with french, english and franglais with a large number of french folks. Joie de vivre was a pre-requisite.
    The Hollanders struck me as the most multi-lingual of the european peoples but I may be biased.

  4. Triggs got that wrong, yes? Wasn’t it the oldies in the UK voting to Brexit and the yoof voting to remain?

  6. Fulvio Sammut

    Monday, July 25, 2016 at 6:54 pm
    Somebody mentioned Hitler a page or two above, so that’s my excuse for posting.
    Yesterday afternoon I was at an antiques fair with my wife, and while she was looking at collectable crockery pieces, I idley rummaged through a box of old postcards to fill the time.
    One postcard, which had seen far better days, had a photo of an old church on it, and I turned it over to see what, if anything, was on the other side.
    The faded date stuck me first; 25 /2/1942.
    Next I noticed the writing was German, and it was in a beautiful hand.
    The sender and the recipient both lived in German sounding towns.
    And best of all, there was a stamp and postmark on it, the stamp bearing the visage of old Adolphe himself.
    I bought it. One dollar,
    Now who here speaks German and can translate it for me?

    Fulvio, my German daughter-in-law is visiting at the moment. If you care to post the text, I’ll ask her to translate.

    BTW, she speaks English perfectly but sometimes struggles to find an English synonym for German word she’s trying to use in conversation.

    Some German just doesn’t travel well. For instance, when she had a problem with an appliance she told the store manager it was having “child sicknesses.”

    After much consternation, on both parts, it was discovered “child sicknesses” meant teething problems. he he he

  7. The Giles Government just iced its own cake.
    It has been one of the truly spectacular bad governments in the history of Australia.
    IMO the Minister for Corrections, or whatever his title is, should be in his own cells.

  8. Will we see in The Australian tomorrow a story that 4 Corners has been irresponsible in reporting this stuff from the NT?

  10. I am horrified by what is going on in NT Juvenile detention. What the freaking hell. Something needs to be done and quickly. Heads should roll over this.

  14. just me @ #2289 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    Briefly
    “I think we really have to view America as a society that is sliding into self-destruction.”
    Hard to dispute that, nor deny that it has serious implications for Australia’s stability and security.
    Are we going to follow the USA down?
    How would the USA crashing change our relationship with China in particular?

    We really have to hope the people of America can face their demons and dispel them. We have to face ours too, no doubt, as boer rightly points out. I’m optimistic about Australia. You only need to go and meet Australians and listen to them to know they do not want to follow America.

    If America really runs off the rails we will have to leave them to it. Luckily we are not dependent on the US in any fundamental sense. We can make our way among our friends and equals. We have the resilience and the collective purpose to do this. I have no doubt about this either.

    My own view is that in any case we can and we should decide to further our own self-determination and that we have nothing to fear from doing so. We should do this and maybe soon we will have to whether we want to or not. If we do, will be made the stronger for it.

    As far as China is concerned, I only know China as a friend. I think we should encourage and deepen this friendship in as many ways as possible as we also practice to stand up without the assistance of our sickening friends, the Americans.

  18. A French/English/German moment.
    My wife’s grandmother was Swiss French and born in Neuchatel. We went to see her birthplace and stayed in a hotel in Murten 500m away from Neuchatel across a lake. Being a smart arse I went to the desk and said “Nous avons un reservation dans le nom X”.
    The receptionist replied in English “Herr Doctor X, it is amusing that you are practising your French but we speak German in this canton”

  19. Kezza, I have scanned it to William who sent me his email address.
    Hopefully he can translate it, or pass the scan on to you.
    I’m sorry but I have no idea how to post it here.
    William might, though.
    Yes, translations can sometimes go hilariously wrong!

  22. ides of march @ #2309 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    Isnt the CLP on track for annihilation at the territory election?

    CLP are going to have to pull a blinder out to win this one.

    For a start, can’t see them retaining the aboriginal vote they picked up last time. Didn’t federally in Lingiari (7% swing back to ALP). Our indigenous brethren had a fling with the right at the last territory and federal elections, and got burned badly by both.

    Also doesn’t help that Giles is just an arrogant authoritarian prick.

    CLP are certainly getting out early with the billboards and placards in my area. Including some big professional jobs too. Somebody is paying.

  24. oakeshott country @ #2295 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    The declaration is a formal ceremony much Similar to the procedure in Britain on election night.
    It occurs when the count is complete and candidates are available to attend, although attendance is not mandatory.
    The returning officer reads the results and declares someone elected. Candidates are then invited to make short statements.

    I attended the declaration in my seat.
    The way the Returning Officer expressed it was that the count had progressed to the point where the remaining votes could not alter the outcome. (or WTTE)
    Only the successful candidate attended along with a couple of dozen supporters.
    After the RO spoke, the elected member spoke.

  27. “As far as China is concerned, I only know China as a friend. I think we should encourage and deepen this friendship in as many ways as possible as we also practice to stand up without the assistance of our sickening friends, the Americans.”

    I agree that the sooner we stand on our own the better. Keating was dead right on this.

    Also agree that constructive engagement with China, and the whole of the Asian arc to our northwest from India through China (about half the world’s population!) is the best option. But China still makes me nervous. It’s sheer size, and economic clout, are not to be trifled with, especially without an adequate restraining balance from the USA.

  28. “It’s sheer size, and economic clout, are not to be trifled with, especially without an adequate restraining balance from the USA.”

    And we here in Oz are ill prepared for this transition – socially, economically, and politically.

  29. The saddest thing about the treatment of the Indigenous kids by the Juvenile Corrections arm of the NT government is that that government is led by an Indigenous Man.

    Also, what is happening is what always happens when you get a government run by a bunch of former policemen.

  30. Bemused
    I don’t think anythink beats the tension of the declaration during British elections. Our preferential system and the multiple methods of voting away from the electorate would make it difficult to do in Australia.

  31. The Vigilantes of Montana, pp68-69

    The story to date: Charley Forbes killed Dillingham. Murdered him in cold blood. At Forbes’ trial, the men were enamoured by Forbes – “a splendid looking fellow – straight as a ramrod; handsome, brave and agile as a cat, in his movement.” When he was acquitted Judge Smith (not a magistrate, but a bloke by the first name of Judge – only in America!) burst into tears, fell on his neck and kissed him, exclaiming, “My boy! my boy! . . .

    Not so lucky he woebegone friends. They were sentenced to death.

    When the women objected to capital punishment for two of Charley Forbes’ cohorts while Charley escaped the gallows because he was a good-looking man [according to the blokes], a number of ladies, much affected, begged earnestly to “Save the poor young boys; lives.” The ladies admit the crying; but declare that they wept in the interest of fair play. One of them saw Forbes kill Dillingham, and felt that it was popular murder to hang Stinson and Lyons, and let off the chief desperado, because he was good looking. She had furnished the sheet with which the dead body was covered.

    [In essence, the women averted the bloodlust to avenge Dillingham’s murder at the hands of Charley Forbes by hanging his two mates.]

    So, what is the opinon of the writer?

    We cannot blame the gentle hearted creatures; but we deprecate the practice of admitting ladies to such places. They are out of their path. Such sights are unfit for them to behold, and in rough and masculine business of every kind, women should bear no part. It unsexes them and destroys the most lovely parts of their character. A woman is a queen in her own home; but we neither want her as a blacksmith, a plough-woman, a soldier, a lawyer or a doctor, nor in any such professions or handicraft. As sisters, mothers, nurses, friends, sweethearts and wives, they are the salt of the earth, the sheet anchor of society, and the humanizing and purifying element in humanity. As such, they cannot be too much respected, loved and protected. But from Blue Stockings, Bloomers and strong-minded she-males, generally, “Good Lord, deliver us.”

    This is the sentiment Hilary Clinton is up against. 150 years of women getting in men’s way.

  34. oakeshott country @ #2330 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 10:38 pm

    Bemused
    I don’t think anythink beats the tension of the declaration during British elections. Our preferential system and the multiple methods of voting away from the electorate would make it difficult to do in Australia.

    Only way we will ever get to results and declarations on the night is with electronic voting.
    And I don’t see that happening any time soon although I am swinging more in favour of it.

  39. Just Me. “Somebody is paying.”
    Greeks bearing gifts?

    ———–

    I suspect the basic CLP machine is actually functioning, and is okay for funds, but the government itself are so on the nose they will not be able to save it and repay their generous donors in kind.

  40. Labor now 73 up in Herbert.

    It probably won’t finish soon. Whoever loses will find a reason to contest the result.

  42. just me @ #2328 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    “It’s sheer size, and economic clout, are not to be trifled with, especially without an adequate restraining balance from the USA.”
    And we here in Oz are ill prepared for this transition – socially, economically, and politically.

    Then prepare we must. For mine, only Labor is capable of leading on this. The Tories are too weak and lack the heart. If needs must, Labor will. This may not be in doubt.

    For mine, I am going to campaign for Labor. And I’m also going to campaign to renew our vows of equality.

  44. Wow. 4Corners tonight was disturbing. The minister seemed to think it was an issue of “training” ?? Not out and out sadism?? Really, as the fed govt stepped in and stopped the live cattle trade a while over cruelty to cows they really should be seen to take action pretty damn fast to establish if the 4C story has any basis and if it does exactly which people should be in jail.

  45. c@tmomma @ #2329 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 10:38 pm

    The saddest thing about the treatment of the Indigenous kids by the Juvenile Corrections arm of the NT government is that that government is led by an Indigenous Man.
    Also, what is happening is what always happens when you get a government run by a bunch of former policemen.

    I am not too convinced of the claims Giles has made regarding his Gamilaroi from Pilliga Scrub ancestry. It seems he may be capitalising in this regards. Mind you, Wikipedia uses the Australian as it’s source, so it requires confirmation. The Australian article states:

    NORTHERN Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles has denied his family’s accusation that he misrepresented his Aboriginal ancestry during his maiden speech to parliament five years ago.

    Mr Giles’s grandmother, Lois Romer, told The Weekend Australian that her grandson was talking “rubbish” when he described her as an Aboriginal woman who was “born in the Pilliga scrub” of northern NSW.

    “Believe me, I was never born in the bush in the Pilliga,” Ms Romer said. “I really feel cranky with Adam because I can’t believe he would say something like that just to better himself.”

    Ms Romer said she was born in Inverell Hospital in northern NSW in 1928 and has never regarded herself as Aboriginal, contrary to her grandson’s claim.

    Mr Giles acknowledged yesterday that his grandmother was born in Inverell, which is more than 300km from the Pilliga, but denied he had suggested she was a traditional Aboriginal woman born in the bush.

    “No, no, no, that was not my intention,” he said. “I have never said she was born under a tree.” He said he used the term “Pilliga scrub” to indicate the region where her family came from.

    Mr Giles said he was offended that private family matters were being examined in the media and suggested it was an attempt to impugn his Aboriginality. He said that whether or not his grandmother identified as indigenous was a private matter for her, but he stood by his maiden speech.

    Mr Giles was born in Sydney and became a Northern Territory MP in 2008, telling the Territory parliament that his father was a proud Aboriginal man whose mother was “a Gamilaroi woman born in the Pilliga scrub”.

    In the same speech, he said: “History has taught us much about the injustices committed against Aboriginal women in the past; for these reasons I have never met my grandfather on my dad’s side.”

    Those remarks have been quoted widely since Mr Giles became Chief Minister in March, although he has declined to elaborate and has instructed family members not to talk to the media. But in July a cousin of Mr Giles’s, Amy Russell, said on Twitter that their grandmother “has NEVER identified as indig or Gamilaroi”.

    Ms Romer confirmed this and said she was upset when she learned that Mr Giles had described her as a Gamilaroi woman born in the scrub. “What a lie,” she said. “I’m as white as anybody.”

    Mr Giles’s Aboriginality is not in dispute. His mother, Jan, is white and his father, Bob Romer, was an Aboriginal man who was killed in a building site accident in 1988.

    Mr Giles takes his surname from his stepfather, who married his mother after she separated from Romer in the late 1970s.

    His grandmother, who is 85, declined to talk about the circumstances in which she fell pregnant with Mr Giles’s father when she was 17. According to NSW government records, she married the following year and had a number of other children, but The Weekend Australian understands her husband, Bertie Romer, was white.

    Ms Romer said in the 1980s she discovered she did have distant indigenous ancestry, but this did not change the fact she did not regard herself as Aboriginal.

    Mr Giles criticised The Weekend Australian for scrutinising “painful and very private” aspects of his family history.

    “Your questions been very upsetting for my family, including my 85-year-old nan,” he said.

    “My grandmother may choose to identify herself as Aboriginal or not. That is her choice.

    “What cannot be denied is our family’s Aboriginal heritage.”
    Google for non pay-walled link: national-affairs/row-over-heritage-of-nt-chief-minister-adam-giles

  47. I see Donald Trump and his hostile takeover of the Republicans as the decades of neoliberal ‘reform’, coupled with the culture war stuff, the dogwhistling and class warfare practiced by the Right coming back to bite them on the bum, whether The Donald wins or loses.

    They sowed the wind, now they’re reaping the whirlwind. It can happen here, especially if the economy goes down the toilet. And what’s to stop it?

  48. kezza2 @ #2331 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    The Vigilantes of Montana, pp68-69
    The story to date: Charley Forbes killed Dillingham. Murdered him in cold blood. At Forbes’ trial, the men were enamoured by Forbes – “a splendid looking fellow – straight as a ramrod; handsome, brave and agile as a cat, in his movement.” When he was acquitted Judge Smith (not a magistrate, but a bloke by the first name of Judge – only in America!) burst into tears, fell on his neck and kissed him, exclaiming, “My boy! my boy! . . .
    Not so lucky he woebegone friends. They were sentenced to death.
    When the women objected to capital punishment for two of Charley Forbes’ cohorts while Charley escaped the gallows because he was a good-looking man

    according to the blokes

    , a number of ladies, much affected, begged earnestly to “Save the poor young boys; lives.” The ladies admit the crying; but declare that they wept in the interest of fair play. One of them saw Forbes kill Dillingham, and felt that it was popular murder to hang Stinson and Lyons, and let off the chief desperado, because he was good looking. She had furnished the sheet with which the dead body was covered.

    In essence, the women averted the bloodlust to avenge Dillingham’s murder at the hands of Charley Forbes by hanging his two mates.

    So, what is the opinon of the writer?

    We cannot blame the gentle hearted creatures; but we deprecate the practice of admitting ladies to such places. They are out of their path. Such sights are unfit for them to behold, and in rough and masculine business of every kind, women should bear no part. It unsexes them and destroys the most lovely parts of their character. A woman is a queen in her own home; but we neither want her as a blacksmith, a plough-woman, a soldier, a lawyer or a doctor, nor in any such professions or handicraft. As sisters, mothers, nurses, friends, sweethearts and wives, they are the salt of the earth, the sheet anchor of society, and the humanizing and purifying element in humanity. As such, they cannot be too much respected, loved and protected. But from Blue Stockings, Bloomers and strong-minded she-males, generally, “Good Lord, deliver us.”

    This is the sentiment Hilary Clinton is up against. 150 years of women getting in men’s way.

    Sadly true, although most of the younger ones have no idea where this sentiment comes from. It never ceases to amaze me looking back. We’ve come a long way but we have quite some way to go.

  49. can someone tell me again how Brucie Baird was able to chainsaw a copious number of ww1 memorial trees planted in what well known as anzac avenue sydney in order to appease the investment needs of racing nsw and to hell with public, transport planning, environment not to mention the proud anzacs. how does one do that again?

  50. btw i thought panel was bit softly softly on freedom of speech issue and sonia k question tonight – as if hey its ok to express emotions and fear even if misinformed (including the case of france) and celebrated by far right in this country – zero tolerance for some things, esp from hanson – i hope the speaker begins to eject her and parties play hardball as in past

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