Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Trump is the beneficiary of good timing, like Abbott. He is cutting through with clever rhetoric aimed at the disaffected.

    Hilary had the chance to be ‘different’ but went the safe route with Kaine. It’s a global trend that people don’t want ‘same’, they want ‘different’.

  2. William
    Literally: A bit + dimunitive. What says it?
    More colloquially, ‘A little bit. What does it mean?’
    ‘Bisschen’ might have colloquially meaning that I don’t know.

  3. Simon

    Take the Mathews Building at UNSW for example.

    LOL
    My all time favorite was the old Sydney College of the Arts campus at White Bay back in the 80’s, a whole series of crappy warehouses, the best canteen ever, a pub across the road and you could smoke in lectures.

  7. Re Barangaroo

    Young Jamie will get Peta Credlin on her $2m retainer to keep greasing whatever wheels are needed to keep the Packer family clipping the tickets of the NSW punters.

  8. Adrian

    Baird’s policies are leading Sydney to a nightmare of congestion and unliveability

    With no consultation, stifling public debate and general god bothering so that Sydney is now the most boring place on earth.

  16. Watching Nicola Sturgeon live from Edinburgh on BBC just now and she is so impressive. The Scots have a genuine leader there.

  18. just me @ #2240 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 7:33 pm

    briefly @ #2116 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    Trump is, doubtless, a reflection of his country. And America is, of course, a deeply divided society. The divides are many but above all they are racial…

    You don’t think the increasing economic divide is just as important now, independent of race?

    Oh, I’m sure you’re right. Economic repression is beyond doubt. But the racial divide is practically State policy in many parts of America. Black Americans are regularly killed with impunity by police officers.

    The Democratic primary was the most racially divided in US history. Clinton won nearly every state with a black or Latino population of 10% or over. Sanders won the states dominated by white people, and the whiter the state, the more they liked Sanders. It speaks to a troubling racial divide. It’s difficult to say who Sanders’ voters will support – some may vote for Clinton, some may not vote, and some are already saying they will vote Trump, joining his coalition of angry white men.

    …Donald Trump is the worst major party candidate of my lifetime. He is an open racist who has called for mass deportation, a US database of Muslims, indiscriminate bombings of foreign countries, and torture. He has no legislative experience and a history of corrupt business ventures and is being investigated for fraud. He is backed by white supremacist groups like the KKK, and his rhetoric has empowered them and led to physical attacks on non-white American citizens.

    https://sarahkendzior.com/

    She also writes here…
    https://decorrespondent.nl/4936/What-I-had-to-tell-my-daughter-about-the-America-of-her-black-classmates/1396148177512-d5332d71

    I think we really have to view America as a society that is sliding into self-destruction.

  19. Rex Douglas @ #2266 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 8:23 pm

    Watching Nicola Sturgeon live from Edinburgh on BBC just now and she is so impressive. The Scots have a genuine leader there.

    Has she explained how an independent Scotland would cover it’s finances if it were to leave the UK? (Genuine question there.)

  22. Millenial

    No specifics as there’s still so much uncertainty and so many variables but if I were a Scot I’d be totally confident the peoples interests and social wellbeing will be absolutely the priority, independence or not.

  23. On the few occassions i have been in Germany I have always said” Ich spreche ein klein Deutsch”. I have finally looked this up and realised why it always produced puzzled looks.

  29. millennial @ #2269 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 8:35 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2266 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 8:23 pm

    Watching Nicola Sturgeon live from Edinburgh on BBC just now and she is so impressive. The Scots have a genuine leader there.

    Has she explained how an independent Scotland would cover it’s finances if it were to leave the UK? (Genuine question there.)

    Scotland, like all other EU-domains, would be forced to become a net exporter if (in the very unlikely event) it were to be permitted to join the EU under its own flag. This would be achieved by internal devaluation – the reduction of both nominal and real wages – such as has occurred in Spain, Portugal, Italy and other peripheral regions of the EU zone until labour productivity in Scotland at least matches that in Germany and its client enclaves in central and northern Europe.

    Economies that run persistent trade surpluses also become stores of excess savings and sources of credit to debtor economies. Scotland will have to become a creditor economy. But this is likely to be inevitable in any case. The UK, either with or without Scotland, will also be forced to become a net exporter, though in the case of England, this will occur by means of the depreciation of Sterling rather than the repression of nominal wages. The UK economy is just not strong enough or large enough to long remain a debtor zone and a (liberal) source of quasi exchange reserves. This economy will have to be rebased after leaving the EU. This is the future that has been imposed on the UK – including Scotland – by the voters of the English provinces.

  31. Hi William.
    The writing on the postcard is cursive and hard (very) for a non German speaker to make out each letter, especially with the European “r” and the gothic flourishes.
    I could scan it and email it to you if you can be bothered, but your email address doesn’t appear on this webpage anymore.
    You obviously have access to mine, and if you would be kind enough to email me yours I can send the scan to you.
    I don’t mind if you post your translation or a summary of the message here, as I am sure others would be as interested as I am, given the context of the war and the location and times when it was written.

  32. rex douglas @ #2272 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 8:48 pm

    Millenial
    No specifics as there’s still so much uncertainty and so many variables but if I were a Scot I’d be totally confident the people’s interests and social wellbeing will be absolutely the priority, independence or not.

    Well, let’s hope she comes up with something substantial; because nothing ruins a new country and its people more than not having the necessary financial confidence from its creditors so that it can continue to spend for its citizens.

  33. Have emailed you, FS. I’ll be interested to see it. And I must do something about the unavailability of my email address (I include it in my Twitter bio, if that helps).

  34. oakeshott country @ #2273 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 8:48 pm

    On the few occassions i have been in Germany I have always said” Ich spreche ein klein Deutsch”. I have finally looked this up and realised why it always produced puzzled looks.

    Man sagt, “Entschultigung bitte, I spreche nur ein bisschen Deutsch. Ich bin ganz verloren.”

  36. Four Corners is pretty hard to watch tonight.
    It reminds me of the NT copper who told me a ‘joke’ once.
    Q. How do you tell the difference between Territory blacks and Queensland blacks?
    A. Queensland blacks leave the cells on their hands and knees.
    My memory is going. I can’t quite recall whether it was ‘blacks’ or ‘coons’ or ‘niggers’.
    Looks a bit like Territory Indigenous kids are being taught the same lessons as the Queensland Indigenous kids.

  39. Briefly

    “I think we really have to view America as a society that is sliding into self-destruction.”

    Hard to dispute that, nor deny that it has serious implications for Australia’s stability and security.

    Are we going to follow the USA down?

    How would the USA crashing change our relationship with China in particular?

  40. My favourite/ most embarrassing German/English moment, when I knew even less German than now.
    In a low dive of a bar/cafe in Vienna.
    Me: Gruss Gott! Entshultigund sprechen Sie Englisch?
    Barman: Nein
    Me (pointing to item in Menu) Ist dis moo-moo oder ist dis bah-bah?
    Barman: If you are asking if this is beef or lamb it is beef
    Me: I thought you did not speak English
    Barman: Yes I have difficulty with the past participles of irregular verbs

  42. Sorry to return to the election but can anyone explain the machinations that lead to a Division being declared. The AEC site says that “The result for each electoral division will be publically declared when it has been determined that the count has progressed to a point where the result for that division is clear.” Currently Mark Butler is leading in his electorate on a TPP basis by 39,616 votes. On which planet is the person in the AEC ,who is of the opinion that this count has not progressed to the point where the result of the division is clear, living. And is there oxygen on that planet?

  43. Just as soon as Brandis has finished his scrutineering of national significance he can spend some time on the treatment of Aboriginal kids by Australia’s premier state terrorist organization: the NT Government.

  45. The declaration is a formal ceremony much Similar to the procedure in Britain on election night.
    It occurs when the count is complete and candidates are available to attend, although attendance is not mandatory.
    The returning officer reads the results and declares someone elected. Candidates are then invited to make short statements.

  47. Thanks OC, you made my day!

    I love travelling in Germany, I know only survival German, but it seems to be plenty. I supposedly speak French, courtesy of four years of high school French, but to be frank I have fewer language problems in Germany/Austria than in France, despite the huge difference in my language ability.

    The Germans do their best to help, the French just don’t give a damn.

  50. VP

    The electoral office has to assume that 100% of outstanding ballots may fall to one candidate. So while the difference is less than the number of outstanding votes, the seat cannot be declared.

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