Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

A new poll suggests Bill Shorten did a lot better out of the election campaign than Malcolm Turnbull, and finds a mixed response to the new Senate electoral system.

The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:

• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.

• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.

• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.

• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.

• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. O’Toole (Labor) now 44 ahead.

    Nationally, Labor 2PP continues to drift up, now 49.83%. Too bad that couldn’t give us a hung Parliament.

    Even so, I bet the Liberal-Murdoch dirt units are looking for another Craig Thomson in the Labor ranks. Maybe Labor should be doing the same.

  2. Leroy
    I traveled through C.Asia in 2001. Politically very complex. Ethnically even more complex – little Kyrgyzstan has 80 distinct ethnic groups including Korean, German and Jewish.

    I didnt (and still dont) know what to make of it. There was just too much to take in and way too little time.

    But it certainly was spectacular.

  3. The Turnbull government faces blanket opposition among vice-chancellors to its proposal to create a new tier of courses with deregulated fees, with even the nation’s most prestigious universities rejecting the idea.

    The government floated a new model of “flagship courses” in the May budget and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull promoted the idea during the election campaign.

    Universities would be able to set their own fees for courses in which up to 20 per cent of their student cohort is enrolled.

    But the proposal has been rejected by the elite Group of Eight (Go8) universities, which would stand to benefit the most under the policy, as well as the technical and regional networks of universities.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbulls-plans-for-university-reform-in-trouble-as-vice-chancellors-unite-against-flagship-courses-20160725-gqd8kz.html

  4. phoenixred @ #2181 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    Player One Monday, July 25, 2016 at 4:12 pm
    PhoenixRED
    “ For Me – The only difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don’t have to waste your time voting. ”
    I prefer democracy – at least that way I get to choose who is going to order me around!
    ******************************************
    You get a CHANCE to say who you want …… but often you have to eat the shit sandwich of who others want ….. personally I am choking on a Mr Harbourside Mansions shit sandwich at the moment, Player One ……. how’s about you ??????

    True. First Joh’s Kingdom which I thought would never end. Then Howard, Abbott, Newman and now Mansions. I prefer a democracy but it sucks when the mob have other ideas as to who to vote for.

  5. The Turnbull government faces blanket opposition among vice-chancellors to its proposal to create a new tier of courses with deregulated fees, with even the nation’s most prestigious universities rejecting the idea.

    Can Malcolm Turnbull get ANYTHING right!?!

  6. c@tmomma @ #2209 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    The Turnbull government faces blanket opposition among vice-chancellors to its proposal to create a new tier of courses with deregulated fees, with even the nation’s most prestigious universities rejecting the idea.
    Can Malcolm Turnbull get ANYTHING right!?!

    The LNP are raving anti-social loonies.

  7. trog sorrenson @ #2188 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 4:28 pm

    How is it that revelations about Clinton damage her, yet all revelations about Trump don’t damage him?

    Because Clinton supporters, and potential supporters, are operating off a higher intellectual base. May sound elitist, but it’s true.

    I’d turn it around the other way. It’s because Trump supporters and a huge number of other Republicans are looking for outrage wherever they can find it. The problem is not just that the conservatives have double standards (and Abbott exemplified it here), it is that they can manufacture outrage out of nothing or things that are objectively explicable to anyone who approaches the issue with rationality. The birthers are a classic example. So is the basement server. So is Benghazi.

    There is something about the conservative mind that has a huge area called gross hypocrisy, where they impose ridiculous moral standards that would not apply to normal people and then proceed to fail those standards themselves time and again unapologetically.

  8. lizzie @ #2207 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 6:01 pm

    The Turnbull government faces blanket opposition among vice-chancellors to its proposal to create a new tier of courses with deregulated fees, with even the nation’s most prestigious universities rejecting the idea.
    The government floated a new model of “flagship courses” in the May budget and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull promoted the idea during the election campaign.
    Universities would be able to set their own fees for courses in which up to 20 per cent of their student cohort is enrolled.
    But the proposal has been rejected by the elite Group of Eight (Go8) universities, which would stand to benefit the most under the policy, as well as the technical and regional networks of universities.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbulls-plans-for-university-reform-in-trouble-as-vice-chancellors-unite-against-flagship-courses-20160725-gqd8kz.html

    So pleased to hear this news.

  9. c@tmomma @ #2209 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    The Turnbull government faces blanket opposition among vice-chancellors to its proposal to create a new tier of courses with deregulated fees, with even the nation’s most prestigious universities rejecting the idea.
    Can Malcolm Turnbull get ANYTHING right!?!

    I hope not but likewise hope he keeps getting thwarted.

  10. “Well he (Brndis) has successfully entrenched himself in the Liberal party.
    Does that count?”
    I reckon so, Barney. And he got a $12,000 bookcase thrown in at the same time. Maybe I’ve been underestimating George.

  11. Somebody mentioned Hitler a page or two above, so that’s my excuse for posting.
    Yesterday afternoon I was at an antiques fair with my wife, and while she was looking at collectable crockery pieces, I idley rummaged through a box of old postcards to fill the time.
    One postcard, which had seen far better days, had a photo of an old church on it, and I turned it over to see what, if anything, was on the other side.
    The faded date stuck me first; 25 /2/1942.
    Next I noticed the writing was German, and it was in a beautiful hand.
    The sender and the recipient both lived in German sounding towns.
    And best of all, there was a stamp and postmark on it, the stamp bearing the visage of old Adolphe himself.
    I bought it. One dollar,
    Now who here speaks German and can translate it for me?

  12. Now who here speaks German and can translate it for me?

    Type it into Google and get Google to translate for you.

  13. I’m predicting Westconnex will go down in history as one of the great pieces of urban vandalism inflicted on inner Sydney, along with Barangaroo.

    Thankfully Baird is young enough to live to see the shame.

  14. fulvio sammut @ #2218 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 6:54 pm

    Somebody mentioned Hitler a page or two above, so that’s my excuse for posting.
    Yesterday afternoon I was at an antiques fair with my wife, and while she was looking at collectable crockery pieces, I idley rummaged through a box of old postcards to fill the time.
    One postcard, which had seen far better days, had a photo of an old church on it, and I turned it over to see what, if anything, was on the other side.
    The faded date stuck me first; 25 /2/1942.
    Next I noticed the writing was German, and it was in a beautiful hand.
    The sender and the recipient both lived in German sounding towns.
    And best of all, there was a stamp and postmark on it, the stamp bearing the visage of old Adolphe himself.
    I bought it. One dollar,
    Now who here speaks German and can translate it for me?

    Give Google Translate a go.

  15. Just what we need, two tiered tertiary education. Typical Liberal thinking. It should be rejected out of hand.

  16. Soon after the war, my mother organised a blanket collection through her Youth Club and sent off a big parcel of blankets to a parish in Germany.

    She got a letter from the pastor, but she wasn’t able to read it (as it was in German), so she put it away and forgot about it.

    Decades later, she found it, and my father translated it for us.

    The pastor expressed his gratitude for the blankets, but said that what they really needed was food and medical supplies.

    My mother was in tears. She thought she’d let him down by not going to more effort at the time to have the letter translated.

  17. Mikeh:

    What is the problem with Barangaroo? I think the master planning for the site has produced a great outcome overall. At least from what I’ve seen of it.

  18. [George Brandis doing a sterling job up north; Labor now +50]
    Now 73
    Someone lock him in there.
    Hee hee, its almost like one of the adults in the Coalition need to tell him which way the team is running.
    ‘No George! Kick it the OTHER way!’

  19. Confessions

    What is the problem with Barangaroo?

    Just about everything.

    The most obvious failure is scale. Every building is too large, too high, too intrusive and too little respectful of the public domain it exploits. The most extreme instance is Chris Wilkinson’s 275m tall hotel/VIP casino for Crown Entertainment. Like a giant finger given to Sydney, everything about it is selfish and narcissistic: its excessive height, public exclusion, and monopolisation of harbour views for a wealthy few. It refuses to consider the harbour, the immediate city, and, most insulting of all, the one great monument and symbol Sydney boasts, its Opera House, as anything more than assets to be exploited.

    http://architectureau.com/articles/the-rise-and-rise-of-barangaroo/

  20. [What is the problem with Barangaroo? …..Just about everything.]

    I do hope we are to going to return to the old Blues Point Tower arguements occasionally seen on here.

    Perhaps we could talk about the UTS tower. That great big brown phallus in the sky.

  21. Regarding the US elections, I was thinking if there had been or could be anything like Donakd Trump’s candidacy, which followed what was in effect a hostile takeover of the Republican Party by a powerful, wealthy populist.

    Clive Palmer’s recent excursion into politics comes to mind. He seemed to have visions of creating a new party in his own image, maybe taking a large swathe of voters from the old parties, maybe even getting some defections (he did get a couple in Qld) and storming home. It all quickly became unstuck. Of course, Clive is a bit of a flake but much less scary than the Donald.

    During the Liberal’s sojourn in the Slough of Despond in the late 80s (may they return soon) there was Joh for Canberra, but that never really got off the ground apart from free bumper stickers in the Sunday papers. There was also talk of prominent businessmen being brought in to lead the Liberals (e.g. John Elliot) but they came to nothing.

  22. Perhaps we could talk about the UTS tower. That great big brown phallus in the sky.

    I had the pleasure of doing my degree in that pile of rubbish.

  23. briefly @ #2116 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    Trump is, doubtless, a reflection of his country. And America is, of course, a deeply divided society. The divides are many but above all they are racial…

    You don’t think the increasing economic divide is just as important now, independent of race?

  24. Steve777:

    At least Clive Palmer stumped up his own money to get elected. Trump has just leaned all the way on the RNC to fun his campaign.

  25. [I had the pleasure of doing my degree in that pile of rubbish.]
    The better universities let their graduates speak for their quality and dont need to fuss with fancy architecture. Take the Mathews Building at UNSW for example.

    There are some universities that try to fool unsuspecting students and employers with old buildings….I wont name them….

  26. Re Barangaroo. I understand some prime waterfront parkland has been moved to make way for the Crown tower.

    Baird is a vandal in spivs clothing.

  27. [you people should be lauding your ALP scrutineers]
    ‘you people’?
    ‘your ALP scrutineers’?

    Anyway, I cant ‘forget’ Brandis. He is politics answer to the UTS Tower.

  28. WA Police have released this:

    National Terrorism Public Alert
    Australia’s current National Terrorism Threat Level is PROBABLE.

    The National Terrorism Threat Advisory System is a scale of five levels to provide advice about the likelihood of an act of terrorism occurring in Australia.

    A threat level of probable means credible intelligence, assessed by our security agencies indicates that individuals or groups have developed both the intent and capability to conduct a terrorist attack in Australia.

    https://www.police.wa.gov.au/Your-Safety/Counter-terrorism/National-Terrorism-Public-Alert

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