The latest result from the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds the Coalition down two points on the primary vote to 39%, but with Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred unchanged. Labor and the Greens are both unchanged, at 36% and 10% respectively. There are some interesting findings in the supplementary questions:
• Malcolm Turnbull is rated by 30% as best to lead the Liberal Party, down nine since March, with Julie Bishop up four to 16% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%.
• Conversely, Bill Shorten has done very well out of the election campaign, with 27% rating him best to lead Labor, up 12% since March, while Tanya Plibersek is down two to 12%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 11%, and Chris Bowen is down to 3%.
• Thirty-seven per cent say the found Senate voting more difficult under the new system compared with 19% for easier; 20% found the outcome more democratic, 15% less democratic, and 39% that it made no difference.
• The current state of the Australian economy is rated by 30% as good, 26% as poor and 41% as neither; 33% as heading in the right direction and 35% in the wrong direction; 27% as likely to improve over the next 12 months, versus 41% for worse.
• Fifty-five per cent said they would support a national ban on greyhound racing, versus 27% opposed.
‘May I cynically remark that this is one decision where Malcolm can feel “safe” as he shows leadership.’
He may feel safe, but his interview on AM on the subject was quite excruciating.
I thought Senator Pat Dodson speaking on AM this morning was very impressive. He will be an ornament to the Senate.
I think of the Turnbull excuse for no RC into the Banks “Takes to Long, and we have/will do something now” . Yet jumps out of the box on the NT problem, seems to have plenty of time to fix things before the next election.
lizzie @ #2394 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:12 am
Perhaps there are some people waiting in the wings hoping for another RC in unions who could leap into action. While they are at they could conduct a sweeping, root and branch investigation into the bastardry going on in “Aged Care”. Of course, the investigation into parliamentary perks must take precedence and that is expected to be completed “real soon now”.
Adrian, yes Malcolm needs some remedial coaching to rid him of the tendency to waffle and micro-explain.
Victoria and Confessions
I was a bit like you in that I was not inclined to watch 4 Corners last night. I went to I view thinking I would just skim it to see what all the fuss was about. It was transfixing.
I strongly suspect that we may see two Royal commissions merging ie there may be some material for the Royal Commission on Sexual Abuse. there was one particular boy who seemed to be stripped naked – A LOT.
Yeah certainly seems like it.
BevanShields: Mike Baird should sack Jillian Skinner over this. And if Labor can’t claim her scalp they’re useless #nswpol
mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-2…
I expect to see Senator Sarah Hanson Young using this tweet about Nauru and Manus.
I also expect to see no permission given to 4Corners to report there any time in the near future.
srpeatling: PM on ABC radio earlier this morning: “Children in detention should be treated humanely wherever they are.”
Victoria
Yo asked why the convention was booing Sanders. He asked them to vote for Hillary.
There were chants of “No No DNC, we won’t vote for Hillary”
billshortenmp: Labor is ready to work with the govt on a RC into systemic failures in Indigenous incarceration.This national shame demands national action.
Denis Muller, Winter 2016
https://meanjin.com.au/essays/immigration-asylum-seekers-and-australia/
We already HAVE Royal Commission into the way kids are institutionally abused while under the protection of large religious and state organizations charged with taking care of these children, not monstering them.
It’s called The Royal Commission Into Institutional Child Abuse. We don’t need another expensive red herring to distract us.
These NT matters should be referred to the EXISTING Royal Commission. They would fit right into its charter and we would probably see a few more State-based children’s detention centers added for good (or bad) measure.
A separate Royal Commission is just another way of confusing the issue, breaking it into its constituent atoms and then fobbing off attention to this kind of abuse by the death of a thousand cuts.
Turnbull desperately wants his very own Royal Commission, and he doesn’t want Julia Gillard’s Royal Commission to get any of the kudos for exposing and investigation systemic abuse… even though that is EXACTLY what Gillard’s Royal Commission is supposed to be doing.
Turnbull’s investigation is a distraction that appeals to his vaity and also to his desperation to appear relevant. It is NOT any kind of humanitarian act.
“srpeatling: PM on ABC radio earlier this morning: “Children in detention should be treated humanely wherever they are.””
Except in our offshore detention centres.
Jeepers
Nate Silver has suddenly elevated trump to 56% chance of winning. Last night it was 46%
Sorry correction
He has three forecasts
1. Now which is at 56%
2. Real polls at 46%
3. Nate’s special magic 41% which adjusts for all sorts of factors
DTT
I see you are cherry picking again. Silver also states that model shows prediction of Clinton win after convention bounces.
triton
Thanks.
DTT
In the podcast Silver was saying this would blow over in a day or two. Likened it to the plagiarism kerfuffle on the GOP side.
Bushfire
I think while there is overlap the issues in the NT are rather different. The focus of the first one is really to shed light on sexual abuse. While it seems probable that there is sexual abuse of kids in penal institutions, this is about so, so much more.
Barnaby defending Scullion’s ignorance on the abuse.
But –
Guytaur
I think Silver errs on the optimistic side. It will blow over for sure, but those angry delegates will not work hard for Hillary. Sure their better nature will get them to the polls in November, but they will not drag their friends out of bed or take a 100 K round trip to be sure Grandma get to the polls. They will not spend 6 evening a week phoning or door knocking.
Amid the waffle and repetition on AM, you could hear that Turnbull was going to use the RC as a way of limiting the terms of reference to this one detention centre.
Let’s not look at the whole issue of the disproportionate number of Aboriginal people in detention, or the level of disadvantage suffered by them that is often a direct cause of this level of incarceration.
steve777 @ #2373 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 7:45 am
I hope the RC is not confined only to the NT but also includes the States.
steve777 @ #2373 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 7:45 am
So much for “Royal Commissions are unnecessary because we have regulatory bodies.”
sprocket_ @ #2402 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:23 am
He’s awesome.
BB
The RC into child abuse is specific and not just into those in detention. It includes coaches at sports clubs.
The RC into the NT abuse will have to address detention as a solution for law and order instead of addressing why these problems happen.
Its a big blow to detention as a solution and gives great weight to abolishing off shore detention. It certainly goes a long way to addressing the issues of secrecy and indefinite detention.
As such it may be like the Costigan Royal Commission in extending past where the LNP wants it to go. A report that will not only help our First people but also all government lets just throw them in detention to fix our political problem the LNP especially seems addicted to.
DTT
Unlike Silver you seem to delight in the gloom and doom approach.
I don’t know what to make of this Edward Snowden tweet:
Detention of any find, whether of people or animals brings out the worst in many people, especially the guards. Those who cannot stand it rapidly move on and you therefore get a self selected group of guards who tolerate or enjoy exercising power over people or animals.
Once one or two of the more vicious types rise to dominance within the facility, they will rapidly transform the culture so that even new recruits will start to follow their aberrant behavioural patterns.
It seems to me that every inmate of an institution (orphanage, juvenile justice, aged care, mental hospital, detention centre and probably prison) should have a personal advocate who has unfettered right of access to the person. The person must be totally independent of the system, but have rights to check on living conditions, exercise regimes, education or recreational programs and food. they should have the right to DEMAND independent medical assessment of an inmate eg if they notice strange bruises or suspect sexual abuse.
Mill
An American or Russian term for using selfies for political purposes?
Dtt
What guytaur said.
You really do go over the top with your pronouncements. You obviously are looking forward to a Trump presidency for some reason
DTT
We have such a systems in place we just need to appoint for anyone in detention.
So create a detention ombudsman. Not only person but lawyers to access.
Dodson was as great as Turnbull was awful.
Often happens when you actually believe what you are saying.
When you are nothing but an empty vessel it shows.
daretotread @ #2422 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:43 am
DTT
I don’t think they ever were going to do that. Like Sanders, these are not typical Democrats but further to the left. Some of them were prepared to do that for Obama in 2012 and more in 2008 because he represented something new. But not for Hillary Clinton. There will be a different demographic out there doing that leg work for Clinton. Hispanics, blacks and feminists.
meher baba @ #2383 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 8:30 am
—————-
I don’t think too many disaffected lefties will join Trump either, except for some truly uneducated ones who’ve bought into some conspiracy theories.
While I agree he is a showman and a snake oil merchant, I think you are underestimating his temperament and his determination to change the landscape. ‘She’ll be right’ mantras are inappropriate here. Just because someone likes to bark a lot, does not mean they won’t bite. Just because someone lies all the time does not mean they won’t do any of the things they threaten they will do. It just means there is even more cause for concern because they are so unpredictable. He displays a lack of ethics, a lack of empathy and a lack of common sense. I think the odds that it’s all just show is very low. He’s an extremist and a raving lunatic!
Guytaur
Possibly but I also like to look reality in the eye and say hello.
I have thought for some time that the DNC might make a mistake in selecting Hillary. Everything I am seeing now is confirming my fear.
There are still 14 weeks to go, so time for many changes.
DTT
If it was a Sanders presumptive nomination we would have seen the Russians hacking the DNC and Campaign emails as well.
Nicole @ 10.06
I agree. That is what I was getting at when I made my analogy with Hitler yesterday. Not because their policies are the same, etc.
But the rise of Hitler and his Nazi party should stand forever as a warning that when someone says they will do something terrible when they get into power, don’t ever assume it is just bluster.
guytaur @ #2431 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:01 am
No, I know what ‘cuck’ means. It’s…uh…not something I wish to explain myself, so here’s a couple of links to the definition:
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/cuck
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Cuck
http://ageofshitlords.com/what-cuck-means-and-why-you-should-be-offended-by-it/
What I don’t know is what to make of Snowden’s frame of mind for using the term.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/tokyo-knifeman-kills-more-than-a-dozen-reports-20160725-gqdm48.html
Guy must have been really deranged. Some form of extremist against disabled people, he was alleged to have been heard shouting, “All the handicapped should disappear!”. He was a former employee too.
Mill
I thought when you know meaning its pretty obvious. I don’t think you take it as literal watching your partner have sex with someone else.
AusHumanRights: #MediaAlert: Press conf. on #RoyalCommission Juvenile Detention w/ @GillianTriggs, @MickGooda & @MeganM4Kids #AusLaw humanrights.gov.au/news/alerts/me…
daretotread @ #2437 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 10:08 am
Er, the DNC didn’t ‘select’ Hillary to be the candidate.
She nominated as a candidate, and people voted for her.
That’s why she is the nominee.
bushfire bill @ #2413 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:33 am
Very good points and so true. I support this too. They just need to get onto it and quickly.
TPOF
Yes you are right about the key Hillary workers. The problem she faces are
1. Hispanics will be useful in Florida and maybe Nevada, but not in any other swing states.
2. Blacks will not be of much use in any state other than Florida because they are concentrated in states that always go Republican.
3. In the key swing states of the North it will be the feminists who are her main campaign workers. Now this feminist support base is no longer young. They will not have the tireless energy of the young who worked hard for Obama. They may be a little demotivated by her choice of Kaine, although they will swallow this mostly. Might lose a few nights or hours of work.
nicole
Agree with your observations.
I would add that Trump is simply a sociopath
daretotread @ #2420 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 9:38 am
You are right. It does specifically say sexual abuse. Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. We would need another.
The notion that there is anything really “new” about the gross abuses of children in the NT justice system is simply absurd. Amnesty international were raising the issue of the use of tear gas on juvenile inmates back in 2014, and there have been many reports about this stuff between then and now. Bob Gosford at “The Northern Myth” on Crikey has done a great job exposing some of the problems.
Its not that authorities didn’t know, whether they be Territory or Federal. It is simply that they chose to turn a blind eye.
While the Royal Commission is important, it is critical that it, or another, takes a very hard look at the absurd incarceration rates of Aboriginal people throughout Australia, and the mistreatment we have also seen of Aboriginal prisoners in other states, too.
DTT
Not what pundits are saying.
What pundits are saying is that no one knows how turnout will be affected. Lots of predictions based on past elections but no real knowledge as its a whole new ball game.
Remember Latinos by themselves are enough to swing the election.
With Kaine getting Virginia in the column this is even more likely. Adding blacks to that just helps.
Its why Trump is so desperate with the fear campaign. He is fighting against demographics and only a high GOP turnout and a low DEM turnout will make Trump President.
With Sanders energising activists and thus more voters that are influenced by them even some stay at homes never Hillary types sees an increase turnout for Clinton as most Sanders supporters not all will vote for Clinton.
How big a turnout Trump will get is harder to calculate on the back of a hand guesswork. Thats why Clinton is still favourite to become President