Another open thread for general post-election discussion.
A thread for general discussion of the political environment as the nation hangs on late counting, the intricacies of which may be discussed in the post above this one.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
AB
Yes. Thank you.
Everyone has a right to their own opinions and biases (God, I’m sounding like Brandis!), but no one has the right to change the literal meaning of someone else’s words.
That’s what you’re doing, and that’s all poor old Vogon was trying to point out to you.
That’s not bullying. It’s a patient explanation.
Choose to do with it what you will.
By the way, I quite enjoy your posts, and admire your resilience.
FS
Its not a choice of words. Its a fact wrong. The gambling reform Labor introduced was due to a deal with Wilkie not the Greens.
Its that simple. Claiming I am reading the words wrong is pathetic. I know the Greens did not do the deal BW refers to its part of the whole BW smear the Greens posts. Facts don’t count for much. If he is going to have a go at the policies blame Wilkie who got them in not the Greens who did not. They had other concerns.
Just change Wilkie for where BW put Greens and it would be fine because the claim would be based on facts and would be BW opinion rather than getting the facts wrong
Here is my forecast of the timeline for the introduction of electronic voting in Australia:
1 September 2018: an election is held following two years of chaotic government and extreme right wing excesses leading to new PM Christiansen losing a confidence motion in the House. Labor wins a huge majority and forms government. The last of the LNP moderates lose their seat.
September 2018 – December 2019: the LNP, now devoid of moderates, lurches further to the right, refusing to take any of the blame for the election loss, they can’t find an easy scapegoat so instead question the integrity of the election process. Murdoch decides that this strategy is the best way to deflect from the realisation that he no longer has the influence he once did so his media assets go full bore in demanding changes
January 2020: following months of public pressure, Labor agrees to establish a taskforce to introduce an electronic voting system.
July 2020: the taskforce makes recommendations for the specifications for an e-voting system
August 2020: A new taskforce is established to procure an e-voting system that matches the requirements. The LNP launches votiscare, accusing the Government of trying to privatise elections.
June 2021: the e-voting system is developed and an intergovernmental working group (IWG) is established to implement it. The IWG decides to pilot the system on a meaningless election where the result can be easily overturned. NSW Premier, Mike “Mr Teflon” Baird, suggests NSW council elections.
4 September 2021: Labor again wins the election, the LNP lurches further to the right and blames the AEC for the loss
November 2021: the system is used for the NSW council elections.
14 January 2022: An independent consultants report by McKinsey & Co is released showing that the system met all its KPIs and recommends that it be used for the next Federal election
15 January 2022: Mike Baird sacks all NSW Councillors and appoints administrators
February 2022 – June 2024: the system is used successfully in 5 state elections
July 2024: a bill to allow electronic voting is proclaimed by the Governor General
1 August 2024: the Prime Minister visits the Governor General and an election is called for 31 August. The e-voting system will be used at a Federal election for the first time.
30 August 2024: machines becomes self aware
31 August 2024: the Government is defeated with a huge 100% swing to Skynet. Most people can’t remember Skynet being on the ballot paper, but anti-vaxers and anti-wind farm proponents mock them about their tin foil hat conspiracy theory.
Due to the accuracy of the system in the past, people eventually accept the result. The right is happy as the Government has been defeated and the left can accept the result as Skynet’s only policy to destroy the human race is less extreme than those of the LNP.
Am very much hoping for minority government for the LNP, as I expect this will cause the maximum destabilisation within the LNP for however long they last.
Next time Labor have the government benches, the ABC and CSIRO boards need to be put to the sword and their CEOs shown the door.
My post from the other thread
Looking at the overall numbers on ABC
LNP 72 + Gilmore, Flynn, Forde = 75
Labor 66
Others 5
4 left in play – Capricornia, Hindmarsh, Herbert, Cowan
I suspect these will break 50/50. Labor needs all 4 to make it 75/70/5
So end result is likely to be
LNP 77
Labor 68
Others 5
Boer – am currently re reading “Bleak House”….
Barney, I assumed the 6 years was +5 ( for manslaughter), so 11 all up. No idea if that’s correct though
I wonder if the government will endeavour to bullshit a bad result as being essentially NSW and Tassie based with excuses for both:
(A) NSW redistributions and council amalgamations;
(B) Tassie – some Abetz inspired crap
Should this the parliament endure the Libs will need to defend NSW and federally in 2019.
When did they need to do that last – 1960s?
Oh dear, Guytaur. You’re a dear cloth eared bint at times (term of endearment). Sometimes you just misunderstand other people’s postings. You don’t have to die in a virtual ditch over it.
Boerwar et al: A scenario to think about.
(1) Numbers in the House are finalised. Mr Turnbull either has a majority or cobbles together minor party support in the next week or two.
(2) He reshapes his Ministry straight away, and holds off having the party room meet until after the Senate count is finished.
(3) In reshaping the Ministry, he leaves the conservatives out in the cold, or leaves Mr Abbott out, or otherwise doesn’t do what the conservatives want him to do.
(4) He, and everyone else, is told before the first party room meeting that if he doesn’t quit he’ll be challenged for the leadership, with a strong hint that if the challenge doesn’t succeed, the conservatives will be out the door.
Not beyond belief, and lots of different ways in which it could unfold.
Sprocket, In Flynn, with 79% counted labor is just over 1000 votes, or 50.8%, any reason for giving it away ?
WRT the other 4, Hindmarsh with 84% counted has labor only ahead 0.1%, so it’s pretty dodgy, the other 3 labor has a average 0.5% lead, could go either way ??
LNP 74 for me, but I’m always the optimist.
sprocket_ @ #1656 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:18 pm
I take no pleasure in writing this but I think Cowan will be the only win for Labor.
It’s hard to see Herbert and Hindmarsh staying Labor leads if the postals keep going the way they are.
Capricornia haven’t released any postal votes and with 9,493 to be processed a current 901 vote lead would be hard to defend.
Sorry.
vogon poet @ #1658 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:21 pm
Nope, my understanding this was a retrial so this replaces the first sentence.
Out in 2 years potentially with good behaviour, maybe less, I haven’t seen any reference in relation to the 10 months he has already served.
Christ this is tedious.
The first part 7.30 has been nothing but The Liberal Party Gazette.
Which Liberal is winning seats?
Which Liberal is upset?
What’s the state of the Parliament (re. Liberals)?
What’s Tony Abbott up to?
If you’d just landed from Mars you’d think we live in a 1-party state.
ML
I did not misunderstand the posting. BW called the policy a Green policy not a Wilkie policy referring to Xenophons policy. The facts are clear. BW’s attacks and blames the Greens for everything.
I was just pointing out that BW got this fact wrong. Thus the conclusions based on that fact were wrong. As I said ML all BW had to do was say Wilkie not Greens and thats opinion and not a fact wrong.
YOU get back to me when you can prove me wrong. I know what I read. BW said Greens policies not Wilkies policies in conjuction with Xenophons gambling demands.
Get back to me when you can say that is not what BW was saying.
vogon poet @ #1662 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:33 pm
Vogon,
postals are going nearly 2 to 1 LNP so that 1,000 shouldn’t last long.
latikambourke: The briefing against Tony Nutt and Mark Textor notches up a gear. https://t.co/6X8Coq7ETI https://t.co/FkvRJM7sjI
So Sunday’s AFL clash between Carlton and Adelaide at the MCG will allow international passport holders to get in for free but poor saps who have ‘only’ an Australian passport will have to pay! What anti-Australian discrimination! It’s no wonder Pauline Hanson did so well.
My understanding:
The penultimate conviction was manslaughter, sentence five years.
The conviction was appealed and the ultimate conviction was culpable homicide.
The sentence for this is six years.
It is likely that the prosecution will appeal.
Guytaur, I think you have missed BW’s point completely. He was pointing out how X could/would apply the Green’s modus operandi.
Vogon
Flynn is one wierd seat, centred on Gladstone adjacent to the Galillee basin and fracking country. The postal vote of 14,000+ is (Fact check required) the record for Australia, made up of FIFO workers working in the mines.
As William has explained, these FIFOs vote LNP with a vengeance historically, as they know who butters their bread.
So far, the postals are breaking 64/36 to LNP which means the 8,000 odd postals remaining may break 5,300 to 2,800 thereby wiping out the Labor lead in Flynn of 1067. Now this might change, but the indications are not good.
Yes, I’m usually always the optimist, but looking at the voting progress as it stands and comparing the postal vote 2PP with the remaining postal votes it’s starting to look like my earlier 73/6/71 prediction was unrealistic. It now appears headed for somewhere between 76/5/69 & 78/5/67. I really thought minority govt was a certainty, but in the absence of some of the remaining votes breaking significantly against the current trend, it looks bleak. Regardless of this disappointment, Turnbull and the LNP are still toast, and plenty more fireworks await in the coming months.
Sorry, I think it’s all over.
My first and final seat number prediction
LNP 78
Labor 67
Others 5
Thanks Sprocket and Barney, much clearer.
The most depressing thing about election counts, even when there’s a definite result, is watching how postal votes whittle away Labor leads and Labor seats over the week ir so following the election.
Anyone know why postal votes are so favorable to the conservatives? Obviously, postal voters are a somewhat (but not greatly) different demographic. My theories are:
– people on holidays. Traditionally a wealthier group, therefore more inclined to vote conservative, but I would have though that this would be less applicable now.
– people travelling for work, more likely to be managerial staff and hence more likely to vote conservative. Again, that would be less true now.
– maybe they are an older group, more likely to have trouble getting to a voting place.
– lastly,monly the Coalition parties seem to be chasing postal votes.
I think you could bet that if postal voters were more left wing than the average voter, the Government would have tried to suppress them, as it tried with the youth vote. Labor should not do that, but it certainlynneeds to think of ways to get more postal votes for itself.
Guytaur,
I really, really, really don’t want to prove anything in relation to your or anyone else’s assertions about particular statements.
Really, I don’t. All I’m trying to say is that different people will have different takes on stuff they read online and there’s no way of knowing that you’ve necessarily got what the other person wanted to say.
Speaking as someone who has worked as a family and marital therapist(amongst other things) for a number of years, you can have people who have been married for years misunderstanding each other about really important issues.
On the net, it’s just that more difficult.
Anyway, going to have dinner now, so will catch you later.
PeeBee
I know thats the point BW was trying to make. However he directly mentioned gambling reforms and the community push back against that and talking about Greens policies. Well the truth is that deal about gambling that got the community involved and vested interests was the gambling legislation.
He could not do this with the mining tax because that was Labor policy He could not do this with the climate change policy because the CPRS which is what Abbott wanted gone and got repealed was also Labor policy and to this day is Labor policy.
So the deal being referred to here especially when gambling is mentioned has to be the one Wilkie did with Gillard when referring to Gillard government policies.
All BW had to do was say if the Greens do deals like the ones that Xenophon has done then in the future this will happen.
Its not me misunderstanding the post at all. Its BW getting a fact wrong.
vogon poet @ #1675 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:52 pm
As Sprocket highlighted the important numbers are the postal votes and how many are still left to be processed. If your looking at the AEC site the to be processed numbers are at the very bottom of the page.
Click on ‘Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress’ to get there.
The TCT may well get to 77 or 78 but the leader has been talking like a loser since Sunday and has hardly had a ringing endorsement from his ministers and backbenchers.
Winning prime ministers are usually heroes, Turnbull is destined to go the same way as Fraser, despised by his party
ML
Thanks for admitting that the post at least can be read that way. This means that BW can be a little clearer in his language about what he is talking about.
Well except its not BW that has been arguing the point just everyone else in a pile on that becomes bullying. This because a group says I did not read it the way BW posted it means I am wrong and he is right.
Nope if something can be read two ways the poster can clear it up. I have been challenged on exactly this point and have made pains to be more clear when asked.
Enjoy your dinner
DF
Hola!
Back with some theatre of the absurd, I see.
Sohar there never was and isn’t an ‘impartiality hat’ for Hanson. She gets the full inquisition but the imams who recommend death for homosexuals get a free pass. Similarly, why did the ABC use a picture of Pauline Pantsdown with a story about Hansons re emergence? What about a caricature of say, Penny Wong or Julia Gillard??? Why not?
‘zoomster
Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:18 pm
Boer – am currently re reading “Bleak House”….’
Only in the sunshine, I trust…
Is it the truth that the Chilcott Report recommendations or conclusions do not refer to individuals or to institutions?
PA: #Breaking Threat posed by Iraq’s weapons was “presented with a certainty that was not justified” by Tony Blair’s government #Chilcot
Labor will win Cowan
PA: #Breaking Consequences of invasion underestimated “despite explicit warnings”, plan for rebuilding Iraq “wholly inadequate” #Chilcot
briefly
I hope you are right. Not just for a good reward for your hard work. I think Aly is needed now that Hanson has got in. A sane credible voice to counter that narrative from the right.
desert fox @ #1683 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 8:06 pm
Because if actually read the article in question you would know it included an interview with the man who created Pauline Pantsdown because questions had been asked whether the character would also make a comeback. 😉
jeremyforlabour: Blair SUGGESTED regime change to George W. Bush: Chilcot. Worse than we imagined.
GdnPolitics: A key quote from Sir John #Chilcot which we will be hearing a lot about… https://t.co/Wqj3a24oSm
briefly @ #1687 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 8:15 pm
Agree.
She sounds like a fantastic addition to Labor. Hope they make the most of her talent.
sewellchan: #Chilcot: Blair had been warned that military action would increase Al Qaeda threat to UK, and might lead to transfer of WMD to terrorists.
Some astounding figures on Labor’s late campaigning via Katharine Murphy on Facebook:
What an amazing effort!
‘pedant
Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 7:31 pm
Boerwar et al: A scenario to think about.
(1) Numbers in the House are finalised. Mr Turnbull either has a majority or cobbles together minor party support in the next week or two.
(2) He reshapes his Ministry straight away, and holds off having the party room meet until after the Senate count is finished.
(3) In reshaping the Ministry, he leaves the conservatives out in the cold, or leaves Mr Abbott out, or otherwise doesn’t do what the conservatives want him to do.
(4) He, and everyone else, is told before the first party room meeting that if he doesn’t quit he’ll be challenged for the leadership, with a strong hint that if the challenge doesn’t succeed, the conservatives will be out the door.
Not beyond belief, and lots of different ways in which it could unfold.’
IMO, they are looking at 76 or 76+
The options:
1. Call an early election. With a majority in the House and just having been tortured for eight weeks, the electorate would, IMO, shut their ears for four weeks and then deliver the coup de grace to the Liberals.
2. Immediate leadership challenge. It seems to me that the survivors have barely drawn breath and the last thing they will want to do is to execute Turnbull immediately. Besides, what if the challenge fails?
3. A bit of huffing and puffing by the raving right followed by a mad all-in scramble for the spoils. The biggest risk here is that an incumbent minister who loses his/her job spits the dummy and either goes indie or simply walks. Immediate crisis!
4. 12 months or so of furious internal struggles over things like who gets what job, SSM, bashing muslims and all the other maddie faves. This will be coupled with horse trading in the Senate that skews one policy outcome after another and, presumably, bastardises an already parlous Budget situation. The Empty Suit does policy Houdini after policy Houdini. Beset by global headwinds and investment uncertainty, the economy gets the staggers. All watch polls intently.
My view is that we are in for (4).
But, what would I know?
Maybe a Rabbot will pull a Turnbull out of his hat?
ChristineMilne: #ChilcotReport We do not agree that hindsight is required to identify consequences of Iraq invasion.
I certainly hope so. The positivity and encouragement of Aly vs the insular fear and loathing of Simpkin is a stark contrast, and honestly, our parliament could seriously do with some genuine cultural and gender diversity. The Simpkins of our community offer nothing but the same old Old White Male succour that we’ve seen for centuries.
That’s the crux of it isn’t it? Regardless of the final result, the massive effort put in by so many, including many here on PB, to go the extra mile and extract every last ounce of effort out of themselves to get the ALP over the line, is really quite astonishing. So many people, working as one to deliver the best possible outcome that they could, not just for themselves but for the country. You’ve all certainly won my respect and admiration for your tireless efforts.
AB
+1