State of confusion: day three

Another open thread for general post-election discussion.

A thread for general discussion of the political environment as the nation hangs on late counting, the intricacies of which may be discussed in the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,823 comments on “State of confusion: day three”

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  2. From yesterday:

    Well, Pauline’s back. In her first major press conference since executing her political comeback this past weekend, it was all so familiar.

    The righteous tremor in the voice. The expanse of feelings, untrammelled by facts or evidence. The defiant jut of the chin, the piercing eyes. The siege mentality upon which she and her supporters thrive.

    As Pauline spoke to reporters in Brisbane on Monday in the wake of her win in the Senate, the derision rained down. Social media roiled in protest. Here was Australia’s Donald Trump, a cancer on the democracy.

    Journalists leaned in for a rigorous interrogation, relentlessly parsing her program, pointing out the inconsistencies, the corrosive absurdities – a display of precision nit-picking from the Brisbane press pack, who worked cooperatively, backing up each other’s questions and consequently excelled in pulling Pauline’s manifesto apart.

    A good day for political journalism, and entirely valid as an exercise. Except when you encounter that sinking feeling that interrogations like the one that unfolded in Brisbane on Monday only make her stronger with her own constituency.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/04/pauline-hanson-back-and-the-disaffection-genie-is-well-and-truly-out-of-the-bottle

  3. The Liberal party was so keen to appear “stronger economic managers” in the eyes of those who only judge this attribute by the budget balance, that it produced in the last week of the campaign $2.3bn worth of savings via data matching of welfare recipients (now also likely not to be passed).

    If the way to keep our AAA credit rating is to make scapegoats out of the poorest in society, you really have to question the screwed up sensibilities that underpin much of economic policy.

    No doubt the make-up of the parliament will have the credit agencies casting another eye over their ratings, but perhaps one change to come from this result is being more worried about the credit agencies than the state of the economy.

    And if you are pursuing a surplus just to keep your credit rating, then it is just as well your budget won’t pass the parliament.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jul/04/hello-pauline-derryn-nick-jacqui-lets-negotiate-why-the-budget-is-toast

  4. Happy, happy, joy, joy Lizzie.
    At least today we will start to get a clearer picture of the rest of the Parliament.

  5. Barney In Saigon

    For those of us who rather enjoy the tension of an election, this long-drawn-out campaign and the current uncertainty about the result provides hours of pleasant speculation. 🙂

  6. I see that the Herald had to drag out its economics writer, Peter Martin, to say that Labor would provide a more stable government. Massola and Kenny obviously weren’t prepared to go near that.
    I note that, if there is another election, Labor’s ability to get bills through the senate will, among other things, be a major selling point. The election should be a total rout (though I’ve been wrong before). I’m afraid the anti-green warriors on this blog will just have to suck it up and take a bullet for the team.

  8. Lizzie,
    I don’t disagree but Hansen’s second coming is not welcome.
    I was interested to see on 7:30 last night that James Ashby has raised his head in the campaign as Hansen’s Campaign director.

    Grogs article should be compulsory reading highlighting that in a hung parliament policies can go out the window replaced by what is possible and your ability to negotiate your measures through.

  9. Headlines in the Australian:

    “Turnbull faces Liberal revolt” : Malcolm Turnbull is facing a ­partyroom revolt from Coalition colleagues who are demanding a say in what he can offer independent MPs in order to secure power.

    “It’s time for Malcolm to man up”: Malcolm Turnbull has to man up and take responsibility for the Coalition’s clear loss in the 2016 election.

    “Lib’s fury at Kelly’s role”: Furious Liberal insiders are blaming rebel conservatives including Jackie Kelly for betraying the party in Lindsay.

    The schadenfreude tastes so sweet. 🙂

  10. Morning all. What countdown day is this now? Liberal leadership spill minus three? That is my guess. If the coalition does not retain a majority, it will happen on Friday.
    Either way, why does the ABC persist with headlines like “Labor, Coalition face leadership scrutiny”?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-04/election-2016-vote-counting-resumes-amid-leadership-speculation/7568562
    For Labor there is a rule automatically triggering a vote if they lose. They still haven’t lost, but even if they do, Albanese and Plibersek have both ruled out a change. Ergo Shorten will remain leader either way. So for Labor, this is a formality. For the Liberals that is far from the case. The content of the article eventually says all this. But the headline is misleading. It tries to hook readers in with a false impression. Aunty should subject its own headlines to Factcheck.

  11. K17,
    I agree but that would be the equivalent to settling the Palestinian, Korean and R v G Wars. 😉

  12. Barney In Saigon

    Some commentators are arguing that Pauline represents a small section of the voters and it is right that she should be in Parl. I agree with you. She is not welcome. Takes us back to Howard letting her go free and encouraging the RW, and now with social media the RWNJs have an even louder voice.

  14. Likkie, Kevin17
    Both the Guardian and SMH (Peter Martin) point out what we all now know. The Liberals do not have an economic plan for the country. All their proposed “savings” (i.e. Cuts) will not pass the new Senate. Nor will their tax gift to big business. So the current economic mess – budget out of balance, slow growth – will continue. That also means the AAA credit rating is at risk under Turnbull, though I think its importance is exaggerated. So Mal has no plan.

  17. lizzie @ #12 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 7:16 am

    Barney In Saigon
    Some commentators are arguing that Pauline represents a small section of the voters and it is right that she should be in Parl. I agree with you. She is not welcome. Takes us back to Howard letting her go free and encouraging the RW, and now with social media the RWNJs have an even louder voice.

    It just goes to show how little the major Parties learned from her first coming. The race to the bottom on Asylum arrivals and terrorism has helped fuel her resurgence.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Lots of reading today – little wonder!

    Peter Martin says the boot’s on the other foot for the Coalition by saying Labor would mount a more stable minority government than they would.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-look-at-the-senate-labor-offers-stability-the-coalition-cant-20160704-gpycd8.html
    Peta Credlin unloads. Deliciously!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/they-aint-seen-anything-yet-credlin-unleashes-on-turnbulls-hapless-set-of-bedwetters-20160704-gpyi4q.html
    Chris Bowen’s terse exchange with SH-Y on QandA last night.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-labors-chris-bowen-rules-out-greens-collaboration-despite-election-uncertainty-20160704-gpyhnf.html
    The perfect storm that enabled Hanson’s comeback.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-federal-election-2016-the-perfect-storm-that-explains-pauline-hansons-thundering-comeback-20160704-gpycdw.html
    Mark Kenny has some thoughts about the poor performance of the government. Isn’t it strange that these MSM people are saying things now that they wouldn’t say before the election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/australian-federal-election-2016-doughnut-nation-the-election-that-left-a-hole-in-the-country-20160704-gpxzga.html
    Denis Shanahan says Turnbull faces a party room revolt. Google. And have a look at the comments from the party faithful following the article.
    /federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-faces-liberal-party-revolt/news-story/b8852e7d45d02d7044ddc673c638dd66
    Warwick McKibbin asks for the impossible – a grand Liberal/Labor coalition. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/politics-2016-time-for-a-liberallabor-grand-coalition-20160704-gpy7i7
    Nice work from Turnbull as he now faces crises on several fronts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-political-and-constitutional-crisis-leaves-malcolm-turnbull-fighting-on-all-fronts-20160704-gpy5xb.html
    Michelle Grattan is of the opinion that his government, whatever its composition, will bring us another continuous election campaign,.
    https://theconversation.com/this-parliament-hung-or-unhung-will-bring-us-another-continuous-election-campaign-62016
    Stephen Koukoulas gives Chris Bowen the MVP award for the campaign.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2016/jul/04/labors-chris-bowen-most-valuable-player-of-the-2016-election
    Alan Austin looks at the potential for a Labor minority government.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/is-a-labor-government-looking-likely,9197

  19. We all knew the Liberals economic plan for the country before the 2013 election, actually before the 2010 election. Give to the more wealthy by making the less fortunate pay. So what’s changed other than more voters have said shove it than thanks I’ll buy it.

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Liberals are losing disgracefully.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/07/03/getup-says-liberal-mps-are-losing-ungracefully-as-the-blame-ga/
    Like this big dummy spit from Potatohead.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-federal-election-2016-dutton-blames-bikies-union-thugs-and-labor-for-his-electoral-woes-20160704-gpy2ux.html
    Will we get a second election?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/04/who-will-form-government/
    Tony Wright says that Pauline Hanson mixes nostalgia with hate and dresses it as patriotism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-pauline-hanson-mixes-nostalgia-with-hate-and-dresses-it-as-patriotism-20160704-gpy9dx.html
    Peter Wicks on how the fingers of blame are starting their pointing. He s=describes Turnbull’s late night speech as an “infantile spray”.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/bang-and-blame-the-fingers-of-election-blame-start-pointing/
    Quentin Dempster on Turnbull’s exit. Will he jump or will he be pushed.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/04/malcolm-turnbulls-exit/
    Michael Pascoe urges us to keep our perspective.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/insight/election-2016-keep-perspective–with-our-even-voting-we-are-champions-20160703-gpxsdn.html
    Fairfax’s Narcissist-in-Chief Peter Hartcher ponders life without a government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-does-australia-even-need-a-government-20160704-gpy3vp.html
    Hold your breath and read what Peter Reith has to say about it all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-last-chance-to-hold-on-to-his-job-20160704-gpy4ck.html
    Steve Kilbey reckons Turnbull has lost his debating skills. I thinks his mojo that he’s lost!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-last-chance-to-hold-on-to-his-job-20160704-gpy4ck.html

  21. In the event Labor do get the chance to govern, they should take it. While they certainly owe the Coalition a shit time managing a minority government… mirroring Abbott’s tactics in Opposition for political gain will be seen for what it is and they would garner considerable admiration (this time round) for having a go. Considering the fall in major party primaries – I doubt another election, if it can be avoided, is the right way to go.

  22. Section 3 . . .

    How Bill Shorten took back NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/election-2016-how-bill-shorten-took-back-nsw-20160704-gpy94b.html
    Lucy Battersby puts it to us that a chaotic government is democracy at its best. She has a point.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-chaotic-government-is-democracy-at-its-best-20160703-gpxtg3.html
    Shaun Carney says Turnbull has only himself to blame. It’s a good read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-has-only-himself-to-blame-20160704-gpxwic.html
    “View from the Street” helps Turnbull to line up all the excuses for his lamentable performance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-election-2016-what-should-turnbull-blame-20160704-gpy7vt.html
    Tony Blair knew Iraq would be his epitaph but he dared not to go against George Bush.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/04/phone-call-bush-blair-failed-iraq

  23. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Ron Tandberg on the sportsmanship of the Liberals.

    David Pope and Turnbull’s close shave.

    Cathy Wilcox launches Recrimination Bingo.

    Simon Letch and the Brexit hangover.

    Mark David has Turnbull looking for answers.

    And he welcomes the first day of stable government.

    David Rowe really goes to town on Pauline Hanson.

    Jon Kudelka on the return of Hanson. Scary!
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/88968d2c1cfa2d0c23fd2c84b65fdf3e

  24. Blanket from last night (11:35), re internal coalition polling. In the GG article yesterday by I think Pamela Wilkinson, by Thursday Turnbull and others were briefed about internal polling that reflected the result.
    Of course the Canberra Press Gallery were none the wiser.

    Also the Moir cartoon in today’s SMH is good, Turnbull on the retreat from Moscow, doubly suitable following a winter election.

  26. In response to a questioner who asked if Labor should “stop being so bloody-minded” and “join hands” with the Greens, with whom they share ideological similarities, Bowen said he did not agree.

    “We said before the election, it was a firm commitment, no deals, concessions, agreements with any minor party. Greens, Xenophon, anybody else,” Bowen said, as Sarah Hanson-Young laughed incredulously.

    Listening to Lateline on this subject, it struck me that if I had been advising Labor on their wording of this decision, I would have put it this way:
    Each Party must go to the election with their own policies, so that the voters have a clear vision of the comparative platforms.
    This would not have drawn so much aggro.

  27. ABC radio News lead: Both major parties face leadership speculation in the wake of…or some such bullshit.

    We need some sort of inquiry into the ABC…

  28. John Reidy
    Interesting about the Liberal internal polling. That means claims of inside information about swings or pre-polls were fake as I suggested. It explains why Turnbull could not face any interviews on Friday – he knew it would be bad.

    It also makes Turnbull’s election night behaviour all the more inexplicable. He knew his gambit had failed. He had 48 hours to prepare a gracious speech accepting the verdict, and he has the ability to be gracious. Yet he could not do it.

    I do not think Turnbull is malicious in the way Abbott can be. I said on Saturday he looked like a broken man. I think he was. He was not able to admit his DD ploy had failed, and that the Liberal party would go back to the far right. He doesn’t want that to happen, but he has lost heart for the fight.

  29. Great to see the Greens foaming at the mouth over Hanson. Of course she has no right to discuss anything Di Natale doesn’t approve of. If the Australian people want a debate about Islam, terrorism and immigration then we can damn well have one. We don’t need anyone’s permission.

  30. For the record, in the three days since the election, has anyone heard ANY Labor party figure (politician, office bearer or even prominent former figure) suggest that there should be a change in Labor party leadership? I have heard none. Unless the answer is yes, there is no Labor leadership “scrutiny” or “tension” and there will be no spill. At worst, there will be a procedural formality.

    In that case the motives of those raising such clearly false speculation must be suspect. They are not reporting news, they are inventing it.

  31. [A good day for political journalism, and entirely valid as an exercise. Except when you encounter that sinking feeling that interrogations like the one that unfolded in Brisbane on Monday only make her stronger with her own constituency.”]
    Also the kind of thing they might have tried during the campaign, instead of being repeating stations for untrue liberal party insider gossip.

  32. I thought Turnbull’s comment to the media yesterday that “counting continues” was full of resignation rather than confidence. I reckon he’ll jump when the numbers are clear, even if they get a slim majority.

  33. [ have heard none. Unless the answer is yes, there is no Labor leadership “scrutiny” or “tension” and there will be no spill. At worst, there will be a procedural formality.]
    If it was going on it would be a really good sign that you hadn’t heard anything about it.

  34. SOCRATES – When Turnbull got onto a train and disappeared out West on election day, on a strange frolic (does anyone know where he went?) it seemed there was something seriously amiss.

  35. So, basically, throughout the election, for most political correspondents for the Fawning Corporate Media, Mark Textor was both, the “Internal Liberal Source” and the “Internal Labor Source”.

  37. The more that Turnbull raised his voice and insisted that he was leading a ‘strong, stable’ government, the less he was believable.

  38. lizzie @ #26 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 7:44 am

    In response to a questioner who asked if Labor should “stop being so bloody-minded” and “join hands” with the Greens, with whom they share ideological similarities, Bowen said he did not agree.
    “We said before the election, it was a firm commitment, no deals, concessions, agreements with any minor party. Greens, Xenophon, anybody else,” Bowen said, as Sarah Hanson-Young laughed incredulously.

    Listening to Lateline on this subject, it struck me that if I had been advising Labor on their wording of this decision, I would have put it this way:
    Each Party must go to the election with their own policies, so that the voters have a clear vision of the comparative platforms.
    This would not have drawn so much aggro.

    Lizzie,
    you are so much more tactful.
    I agree with Labors stand, however if the Greens manage to get 5 or more seats in a future Parliament then Labor would have reassess their position or be in danger of not forming Government.

  39. I luv view from the street –

    [And you can understand why the group that created such classic hits as “Children Overboard”, “Stop The Boats (Party Zone)” and “Theme From Debt & Deficit Disaster” would be furious. After all, Labor were basically covering their best material]

  41. CTar1

    Abetz laughable on Lateline.

    I thought he was the perfect example of a robot speaking. Almost Dalek-like.
    Nothing he said had any relation to reality.

  43. Re Turnbull on election day I think he was trying to cover himself against accusations afterwards that he didn’t do everything possible.
    Re. Liberal’s blame game, have they blamed a ‘hostile media’, including a ‘biased ABC ‘.
    I give it 2 days tops before they say this.

  44. WWP
    “If it was going on it would be a really good sign that you hadn’t heard anything about it.”
    Betting markets are usually well informed. Is there any money on a Labor leadership change? I doubt it. I suspect Liberal leadership is a different story.

  45. If counting goes well for the Libs today the leadership phoney war will continue. If it goes badly for the Libs (and they need to win almost all the undecideds to get to majority) then I think things could happen quite quickly. I would bet on Friday. Have a good day all.

  47. socrates @ #30 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 7:58 am

    For the record, in the three days since the election, has anyone heard ANY Labor party figure (politician, office bearer or even prominent former figure) suggest that there should be a change in Labor party leadership? I have heard none. Unless the answer is yes, there is no Labor leadership “scrutiny” or “tension” and there will be no spill. At worst, there will be a procedural formality.
    In that case the motives of those raising such clearly false speculation must be suspect. They are not reporting news, they are inventing it.

    I suppose the media is playing on Labor Party rules, after an election loss leadership positions are declared open. Candidates have 7 days to nominate. If there are no challengers Shorten and Plibersek would be immediately reelected unopposed.

    As the result of the election is unclear they’re getting a bit ahead of themselves also when possible challengers have said they won’t be candidates this speculation is just crap.
    I suppose it’s their idea of giving a balanced coverage!

  48. JOHN REIDY – Funny how the FCM (Fawning Corporate Media) said that Malcolm was magnificent at the Press Club – had all of his old mojo back, etc etc. But, in fact, it was obviously the last throw of the dice of a truly desperate man. It’s all in the eye of the beholder.

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