State of confusion: day three

Another open thread for general post-election discussion.

A thread for general discussion of the political environment as the nation hangs on late counting, the intricacies of which may be discussed in the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,823 comments on “State of confusion: day three”

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  1. A rookie Labor MP for Brand has delivered something the party has not had in WA for 15 years — a safe seat.

    Madeleine King had a swing of more than 8.5 per cent in the Rockingham-based seat, bolstering her two-candidate preferred margin to 62.25 per cent.

    Her 12.25 per cent margin is the first time since the 2001 election that a WA Federal Labor MP can boast a double-digit buffer, when Labor heavyweights Kim Beazley, Carmen Lawrence and Stephen Smith exceeded that mark in the face of the Tampa backlash.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31984454/madeleine-king-brand-first-time-mp-delivers-labor-safe-seat-in-wa/#stop

  2. Whether the LNP become the govt. or not today, you would have to say Malcolm is vying with Tony for the title of worst PM in Australian history.
    At the moment I estimate Tony is one budgie ahead in the count.

  3. Alan Moir’s little ticking time bomb Arfur makes another appearance – this time in Turnbull’s Napoleonic retreat.

  4. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    ‘JOHN REIDY – Funny how the FCM (Fawning Corporate Media) said that Malcolm was magnificent at the Press Club – had all of his old mojo back, e”
    .
    Would that be the same Mojo that they all said Abbott had got bac k a few months before his ‘tragic’ demise ? 😆

  8. Simon Birmingham on 24 this morning effectively said that the LNP do not have to change anything, what they have been doing all along is good and working. Talk about denial.

  9. I wanted to find out how six and three year terms are allocated in the Senate, and found Antony’s holy writ on the subject:

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/04/how-long-and-short-terms-are-allocated-after-a-double-dissolution.html

    I tried to understand it, but now my brain hurts and I am no further ahead.

    Have I got it correct that the three and six year terms are decided by the senators themselves when, or soon after, they convene for the first time?

    In particular, is Pauline Hanson likely to get a six or a three year term?

  10. Re the media, Turnbull or for that matter Abbott could say one morning, ‘that was a great cup of coffee I feel energised ‘.
    And this would be interpreted as ‘the Liberal leader has his mojo back, the tide has turned ‘.
    If wishes were horses, the press gallery are jockeys.

  11. From the ABC blog:
    Hinch making a positive start.

    Human Headline rips into Pauline Hanson’s call for CCTV in mosques

    Derryn Hinch has been questioned about his Senate plans and positions on ABC’s News Breakfast.

    He was questioned about Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party and how he would proceed negotiating with her, and the long-time anti-paedophilia campaigner said this:

    She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant. She is talking about having CCTV cameras in mosques, and people go, ‘Well, why don’t you put it in churches to keep an eye on the paedophile priests.’ Doesn’t make sense.

    Mr Hinch also suggested there were moves afoot to try and ensure he, and Pauline Hanson, only serve three years in the Senate. He said he will fight that.

    How are long and short term Senators chosen?
    I’ve read references to the Senators themselves deciding.
    Are there any rules or guidelines?

  12. It’s a crying shame when Fox News is more “fair and balanced” than our own media outlets, including the ABC. This latest trick – flogging nonexistent leadershit – is just the crowning cherry of suckage on their cupcake of LNP-friendly coverage this election.

  14. lizzie @ #57 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Police arrived and handcuffed businessman Ahmed al-Menhali, 41, who had been visiting the area for medical treatment and was wearing a traditional headdress with headband (hatta wa agal) and full-length white robe (kandura), WEWS reported.

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/diplomatic-incident-as-uae-man-mistaken-for-terrorist-in-ohio-20160704-gpy0zi.html

    Perfectly understandable. He’s either a cross dresser or terrorist.
    What else could he possible be? 😉

  16. Antony Green has come up with a corker in that Senate order of election piece.

    Clearly both methods need to be tabulated based on full results and the better outcome for the majors will be agreed by the Senate majority.

  17. The top headline on ABC online “Vote counting resumes as Labor, Coalition face leadership scrutiny” has been unchanged since Sunday.

    This must be some sort of record for the leading headline to remain the same for three days. Facts are apparently an optional extra at the ABC.

  18. Two weeks later, Speers was threatened over Credlin’s role when it was made clear to him there would be no further co-operation from Turnbull while Credlin was employed. Frangopoulos said yesterday that he had taken the matter up with Turnbull’s ­office. “The issue was immediately raised with the PMO and the matter ­resolved. I have no further comment,” he said.

    It will be a fabulous time when Credlin follows through with her …

    They ain’t seen anything yet’: Credlin unleashes on Turnbull’s ‘hapless set of bedwetters’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/they-aint-seen-anything-yet-credlin-unleashes-on-turnbulls-hapless-set-of-bedwetters-20160704-gpyi4q.html#ixzz4DU4XsnVK

  19. Regarding Hanson, I’m a firm believer that she’s entitled to say and do as she pleases, as long as it’s within the law. She put herself forward for election, and would not have the platform she has now had she not been elected.

    Silencing idiots like Hanson does not make her supporters go away, it only strengthens their feelings of victimhood and martyrdom. The prime force that consigned Hanson to the scrapheap last time around was the embarrassing performance of One Nation’s elected representatives, especially in Queensland where they were almost unanimously removed after one term. If we want to be rid of Hanson, then we’ve got to make the argument – throughout society – that what she stands for is both unacceptable and counterproductive. Having One Nation senators flailing around in public is the most likely way to achieve that, as it did with the PUPs this time.

  20. john reidy @ #60 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:44 am

    Re the media, Turnbull or for that matter Abbott could say one morning, ‘that was a great cup of coffee I feel energised ‘.
    And this would be interpreted as ‘the Liberal leader has his mojo back, the tide has turned ‘.
    If wishes were horses, the press gallery are jockeys.

    If the gallery have a christmas pageant there are beaucoup candidates for the rear end of the horse. Who could possibly play the head. Does anybody market a double ass end horse. Could be big sales to the senate.

  21. Re: who was the worse PM… Abbott was plain awful, Turnbull was disappointing, ineffective, weak, spineless, disappointing, spineless, weak, ineffective.

    But Abbott was AWFUL. Different kind of vibe there.

  22. From previous thread
    rossmcg @ #1250 Monday, July 4, 2016 at 11:32 pm

    Bemused
    I daresay the Herald Sun made them angry about the CFA and skytrain even though they were not affected.
    I read once that one of the London tabloid editors had that as a daily goal. To make readers angry.

    Sheer gutter journalism.
    How could anyone aspiring to be a reputable journalist wish to work for such an organisation and forever have their CV tainted with it?

  24. More unhingement.

    Senator Johnston said the coalition did not fire its ammunition on union corruption or boat arrivals sufficiently and the response to Labor’s “fabulous” scare campaign on Medicare came too late.

    “Now, Malcolm played the honourable nice guy, ‘we’re above politics, we’re good people’. Well, I’m sorry, people’s attitudes regarding politicians are not that and it takes John Howard about 11 years to establish a rapport with people and even then he didn’t win his own seat,” he told ABC Radio.

    “The bottom line in all of this is if you’re not running a scare campaign, if you’re not telling people how bad the other side is, you’re grist in the mill, and Labor did it magnificently.”

    Furthermore, Senator Johnston said the Liberal campaign’s “jobs and growth” message was “a bit trite”. Several Liberals privately said they agreed with these sentiments.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/31984449/pyne-stands-by-pm-shorten-basks-in-glory/#stop

  25. Murdoch’s Oz today has plenty of stories on the Liberals’ woes plus advice for Turnbull:

    [Turnbull faces Liberal revolt
    Malcolm Turnbull is facing a ­partyroom revolt from Coalition colleagues who are demanding a say in what he can offer independent MPs in order to secure power.

    It’s time for ScoMo to go
    7:59AMROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN
    If the Coalition is able to form government, one of Turnbull’s first moves must be to dump Scott Morrison as Treasurer.

    It’s time for Malcolm to man up
    DENNIS SHANAHAN
    Malcolm Turnbull has to man up and take responsibility for the Coalition’s clear loss in the 2016 election.

    Libs’ fury at Kelly role
    KYLAR LOUSSIKIAN
    Furious Liberal insiders are blaming rebel conservatives including Jackie Kelly for betraying the party in Lindsay.

  27. Worst prediction of the night was mine that Malcolm would get beaten up in Wentworth. The little possums hardly made a dent in his margin. How pathetic does it get.

  31. If the Coalition is able to form government, one of Turnbull’s first moves must be to dump Scott Morrison as Treasurer.

    Such a shame Turnbull ruled out making any changes to the ministry 😀

  32. don @ #59 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:41 am

    I wanted to find out how six and three year terms are allocated in the Senate, and found Antony’s holy writ on the subject:
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/04/how-long-and-short-terms-are-allocated-after-a-double-dissolution.html
    I tried to understand it, but now my brain hurts and I am no further ahead.
    Have I got it correct that the three and six year terms are decided by the senators themselves when, or soon after, they convene for the first time?
    In particular, is Pauline Hanson likely to get a six or a three year term?

    Yup..the Senate itself will decide the terms of its members. Labor and Liberal could combine to give their own members 6 year terms and 3 year terms to all the minors and the tail-end of their number. I would do it.

  33. [
    Perfectly understandable. He’s either a cross dresser or terrorist.
    ]

    He could be one of the Chasers.

    Also re Credlin, also is Bishop the elder, supposed to be dropping a bucket at some stage?

    We all take our Schadenfreud in different ways, for me I take the freebie copy of the GG and use it as bedtime reading for my toddlers.
    The Wilkinson article yesterday is a long one, essay length.
    Also reported with 3 weeks to go, Liberal TV ads went ‘dark’, the federal Libs ran out of money.
    Walker in Victoria was withholding funds and donations were down.
    Eventually he came through with money and the ads resumed.
    Also the single largest source of funds for the ALP were small donations under $100 from individuals.

  34. Please, please, please, Liberal Party, re-elect Tony Abbott to the Liberal Leadership so we can watch Tony V Bill 2.0! It will be a massacre of Ali V Foreman proportions. The guy who floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee with his rope-a-dope tactics V the Punch Drunk guy who throws haymakers and rarely connects! : )

  36. Things are weird when the online DT clearly says:
    “Albo rules out leadership challenge”
    but the ABC still persists with:
    “Vote counting resumes as Labor and Coalition face leadership scrutiny”

  37. briefly @ #82 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:32 am

    don @ #59 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:41 am

    I wanted to find out how six and three year terms are allocated in the Senate, and found Antony’s holy writ on the subject:
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/04/how-long-and-short-terms-are-allocated-after-a-double-dissolution.html
    I tried to understand it, but now my brain hurts and I am no further ahead.
    Have I got it correct that the three and six year terms are decided by the senators themselves when, or soon after, they convene for the first time?
    In particular, is Pauline Hanson likely to get a six or a three year term?

    Yup..the Senate itself will decide the terms of its members. Labor and Liberal could combine to give their own members 6 year terms and 3 year terms to all the minors and the tail-end of their number. I would do it.

    Thanks very much briefly. Exactly what I was after.

    I see no reason why Antony couldn’t have that as his headline, and include the other stuff for the psephologists.

    Ross Gittins is the the master of that. He gives you the skinny, then goes into detail, one of the many reasons his columns are so popular in my opinion, apart from knowing his stuff and writing beautifully clear prose.

  38. Antony Green made a very good point at the end of the ABC Election Night coverage.

    The Constitution says that, after an election has just been held you cannot have another Senate election for 2 years. So, HOR only. UNLESS you have another Double Dissolution election.

    So, if Malcolm wants to keep having elections until he gets the result he wants then I think the electorate would go feral!

  39. ‘Green Senate Primary on results so far (4 July, morning):

    NSW: -0.4%

    Vic: +0.5%

    Qld: +1.53%

    WA: -4.82%

    SA: -1.39%

    Tas: -0.73%

    ACT: -2.25%

    NT: 2.22%’

    ‘A confident prediction of 12 Green Senators a few weeks ago has been slashed to 6-8. ‘

    https://organisedcontrarian.net/2016/07/04/the-great-green-wipeout-of-2016/?fb_action_ids=10154029392953598&fb_action_types=news.publishes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=%5B1097762676961239%5D&action_type_map=%5B%22news.publishes%22%5D&action_ref_map=%5B%5D

    Take comfort, K17 – there were worse predictions than yours.

  40. Lol! This was a tweet from Turnbull back in 2010. Aint karma a b@@ch

    Malcolm Turnbull
    5 Aug 2010
    Malcolm Turnbull ‏@TurnbullMalcolm
    How surreal that Gillard’s campaign now depends on the resuscitation of the man she so ruthlessly deposed only a few weeks ago.

  41. In the event Labor do get the chance to govern, they should take it.

    I agree, especially since they’ll be reasonably placed to get bills through the Senate; certainly more so than the LNP.

    I keep thinking of the first-term Bracks government here in Victoria, which governed very effectively for a full term with the support of three rural independents. Can’t see why that couldn’t be matched at the national level.

  42. Over the past few weeks one sure way to have endless wasted time here is to watch the Green v Green Haters have their little war. All I know is that there is a party to the left of Labor and the sooner Labor comes to some kind of formal arrangement with the Greens the better. The LNP (read conservative media) have delighted in reminding Labor this this vote in 2016 is Labor’s second lowest PV on record and just above that of the 2013 election. What does this tell us? That the days of Labor getting a 39% PV are over.

    The seat of Perth is instructive…2007 – Smith wins on PV………2010……Smith wins with Green Prefs (a lot of them)………..2013………. MacTiernan saves the furniture with Green Prefs again……….and 2016……Hammond wins with Green Prefs yet again. This time, and to date, the Liberal candidate got 2,600 more PVs than Hammond. Meanwhile the Green PV has gone to over 16%.
    Now is true to say the demographics in Perth are changing – at the expense of the Labor vote. The writing has been on the wall for nearly 10 years now. Without the Greens, Perth would be lost – probably to the Liberals. Those who believe that Labor can wish the Greens away or abuse them away are on the wrong track for mine.

  43. Victoria

    Here is the ABC list of close seats

    Thanks. Been looking for somewhere to keep tabs on them all in the one spot.

  47. No-one’s mentioned Dutton’s reason for nearly losing his seat: outlaw bikie gangs protesting outside his offices.

    If it hadn’t been for bikies, Twitter, Mediscare campaigns, Liberal rats, phoney text messages, the CFMEU, Get Up!, and good old fashioned better Labor policies, they’d have had it in the bag.

    Lucky the police are investigating. And if some poor Labor sap is found, and then found guilty, it might just make the difference in the dying days of the campaign. After all, with only minus-4 days to go, anything can happen!

  48. c@tmomma @ #84 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:34 am

    Please, please, please, Liberal Party, re-elect Tony Abbott to the Liberal Leadership so we can watch Tony V Bill 2.0! It will be a massacre of Ali V Foreman proportions. The guy who floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee with his rope-a-dope tactics V the Punch Drunk guy who throws haymakers and rarely connects! : )

    The Liberals are disintegrating.

    Presumably, if they fail to make it to a majority – the most likely result – the leadership positions will be declared vacant. There will almost certainly be one or more challengers to Turnbull and Bishop. It’s just not at all obvious they have a figure in their ranks who can unite them. Turnbull cannot, as is plain to see. Nor will Abbott. The tensions that have been alive in the LNP for the last few years have been brought into the open by this result….and by Labor’s ability to campaign and win.

  50. The timing of One Nations revival in the parliament is probably good.

    It provides the opportunity to properly expose the myths, bigotry, racism, naivety once and for all.

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