State of confusion: day three

Another open thread for general post-election discussion.

A thread for general discussion of the political environment as the nation hangs on late counting, the intricacies of which may be discussed in the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,823 comments on “State of confusion: day three”

Comments Page 3 of 37
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  1. the ALP should only attempt to govern if that is the only way to avoid another election, I.e if the coalition refuse or cannot govern.
    They have fewer seats and will probably be behind or at best equal on 2pp.
    After illegitimate claims in 2010, when they were also the incumbent government and facing an always unfriendly media they might be better off going to another election.

  2. Briefly

    I said that the coalition were being held together by sticky tape, and that after the election they would break apart. Lol……

  3. bk @ #95 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:44 am

    The ignominy of the Coalition being in opposition in another hung parliament would be karma writ large.

    There’s a little voice inside of me that says that is what the Liberals want, with Tony Abbott at the helm as Opposition Leader in a Hung Parliament because it worked a treat for them last time. Then they march on to another resounding election victory.

    However, Bill Shorten is no Kevin Rudd, Tanya Plibersek is no Julia Gillardesque Deputy Labor Leader, and there will be no coup on the Labor side if they are in government. Chris Bowen is a Shorten consigliore, and anyway, as has been relentlessly stated by Labor, they have learned the hard lesson of party leadership instability and they won’t get fooled again by it.

    So the Bracks comparison is apt, therefore. And Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party will rant and rave their way into political irrelevance, I believe.

  5. Having One Nation out in the open in full sunlight is a good thing. Based on past performance they will quickly make themselves an unpleasant taste to many who voted for them and we will see them relegated to the fringes once more.
    I think a fair number of their supporters forgot how toxic they were in the past.

  6. If Turnbull is punted by the Fibs he could have the ultimate last laugh by resigning from the parliament after it is sworn in, a by election held with a Labor, Green or Independent taking his place.
    What a circus it would be.

  8. Bushfire Bill
    #97 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:47 am

    No-one’s mentioned Dutton’s reason for nearly losing his seat:

    ………………………………………….

    His ‘finest’ contribution to the vernacular might well be the inspiration provided to come up with the saying –

    *Dumber than Dutton*

  9. rex douglas @ #100 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:51 am

    The timing of One Nations revival in the parliament is probably good.
    It provides the opportunity to properly expose the myths, bigotry, racism, naivety once and for all.

    That was the hope last time.
    Except since then we’ve had asylum seekers and terrorists.

  10. mikehilliard @ #49 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:21 am

    Hands up who thinks we’ll get a result today.

    Not if things go close to what William is projecting in the other thread. He has Forde coming down to 18 votes and it being the difference between a majority or a hung parliament. If it does come down to Forde and it is this close then the result will not be know this week and there will be a recount.

  18. Rex

    Someone saidvthatbhe could not believe that people could be so stupid to vote One
    Nation.

    No, they are not stupid they are racists and bigots and Islamophobes …

    An election result is a reflection of what a nation is and we have out share of racists.

    No amount of nice talking can gloss over that.

  19. booleanbach @ #105 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 10:00 am

    Having One Nation out in the open in full sunlight is a good thing. Based on past performance they will quickly make themselves an unpleasant taste to many who voted for them and we will see them relegated to the fringes once more.
    I think a fair number of their supporters forgot how toxic they were in the past.

    The way to defeat ON is to campaign to their voters and attract them away. How to do this? ……That would be telling…..

  21. Ex Murdoch now Lateline political “expert” David Lipson said last night “none of us saw this coming”. (Lipsom???)

    Amazing what you won’t see if you refuse to look.

    Quite a few PBers saw it coming …… perhaps there’s a job waiting for us at Lateline when they shove Lipson off for incompetence.

  22. Mildly amused – wanted to pass on my thanks to my electricity provider for some great service by one of their contractors, but they’ve made it virtually impossible for me to do this!

  23. Hopefully the Senate numbers will be such that some combination of the sane cross-benchers, no matter their political orientations, will always swamp the Hansonites.

  24. All along I have said that nobody on the ALP side mentioned leadership challenges to Shorten. A journo originally asked the question, and those frenzied media types latched onto to the idea like a lifeline … it distracted the viewers/readers from the lack of professionalism pre election.

    On Turnbull, he’ll be gone next day if he gets challenged. His ego could not handle the ignominy a second time. Like most salesmen, he’ll move onto perceived greener pastures if he knows he cannot make the sale.

  25. Psyclaw

    Me thinks the likes of Lipson were merely spruiking for Turnbull and co and hoping that the public would get sucked in.
    We could see it coming, but we too were confused by the msm constantly calling the election over weeks ago. This is despite the polling showing otherwise during and prior to election campaign. It never got above 51/49 foe either party and hovered around 50/50.
    There was never going to be an emphatic win for either party. That is why i knew Turnbull was toast after election

  26. Barney In Saigon
    Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 8:45 am
    From the ABC blog:
    Hinch making a positive start.

    Yes, I saw a summary of Hinch on ABC and his main themes didn’t seem too bad. I will have to wait and see what his position is on matters economic to make up my mind, but what I have seen so far is reasonable.

  28. c@tmomma @ #103 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:53 am

    bk @ #95 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:44 am

    The ignominy of the Coalition being in opposition in another hung parliament would be karma writ large.

    There’s a little voice inside of me that says that is what the Liberals want, with Tony Abbott at the helm as Opposition Leader in a Hung Parliament because it worked a treat for them last time. Then they march on to another resounding election victory.
    However, Bill Shorten is no Kevin Rudd, Tanya Plibersek is no Julia Gillardesque Deputy Labor Leader, and there will be no coup on the Labor side if they are in government. Chris Bowen is a Shorten consigliore, and anyway, as has been relentlessly stated by Labor, they have learned the hard lesson of party leadership instability and they won’t get fooled again by it.
    So the Bracks comparison is apt, therefore. And Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party will rant and rave their way into political irrelevance, I believe.

    Labor will be able to enact most its program with the support of the x-bench as long as the LNP do not reach 75 seats…seemingly, a result that lies out of their reach..

    Since the LNP actually do not have a program of any kind, Labor will set the agenda in this Parliament for as long as it lasts, just as they did in the closing months of the last Parliament.

    The next opinion polls will provide some insight into the response of voters to the implosion of the LNP; and, particularly, to the force of “stability” as a campaign theme. This theme does not belong to the LNP. It is the process of being shifted to Labor. Were all those very close contests to be re-run, Labor would be favoured to win nearly all of them.

  29. Question

    Yes, I saw a summary of Hinch on ABC and his main themes didn’t seem too bad. I will have to wait and see what his position is on matters economic to make up my mind, but what I have seen so far is reasonable.

    How can you take seriously a man who runs for elected office after admitting he has never voted?

  30. twitter.com/Peter_Fitz/status/750114326384549888 …

    1

    2

    has the msm asked about the health minister at all during this whole campaign?

    Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道
    37m37 minutes ago
    Finnigans 天有道地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    The Bankruptcy of Turnbull’s election campaign. Never ONCE, not ONCE, the Health Min @sussanley had a PRESSER to defend #Mediscare

  31. Don’t know if today’s counting is included but right now in the “Who is Leading” category, the AEC has Labor 71, Coalition 67, Others 6, with only 6 remaining in the “Currently Close” category.

    Whilst the AEC has not declared any seat, on these numbers having only 6 seats in the “currently Close” category sounds encouraging.

  32. BK

    Me thinks Turnbull is avoiding talking to the media until the AEC can give him a clearer picture of how the seats will fall

  33. zoomster @ #89 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:41 am

    ‘Green Senate Primary on results so far (4 July, morning):
    NSW: -0.4%
    Vic: +0.5%
    Qld: +1.53%
    WA: -4.82%
    SA: -1.39%
    Tas: -0.73%
    ACT: -2.25%
    NT: 2.22%’
    ‘A confident prediction of 12 Green Senators a few weeks ago has been slashed to 6-8. ‘
    https://organisedcontrarian.net/2016/07/04/the-great-green-wipeout-of-2016/?fb_action_ids=10154029392953598&fb_action_types=news.publishes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=%5B1097762676961239%5D&action_type_map=%5B%22news.publishes%22%5D&action_ref_map=%5B%5D
    Take comfort, K17 – there were worse predictions than yours.

    Generally good news there about the demise of one anti-Labor party.

  36. Psyclaw

    Apparently, to be a press gallery journalist, all you need to do is take everything the Liberals say at face value.

    Alas, that rules me out of getting a gig.

  37. Question

    Whatever we may think of Hinch’s showbowting at various times in his career he is unlike many single issue candidates or those who found themselves accidently elected to the Senate in 2013.

    His long experience of dealing with politicians as a journalist undoubtedly gives him a good understanding of how the system works so it will be interesting to see how he tackles issues beyond those he campaigned on.

    Won’t need media training for starters.

  38. xoanon @ #91 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:42 am

    In the event Labor do get the chance to govern, they should take it.

    I agree, especially since they’ll be reasonably placed to get bills through the Senate; certainly more so than the LNP.
    I keep thinking of the first-term Bracks government here in Victoria, which governed very effectively for a full term with the support of three rural independents. Can’t see why that couldn’t be matched at the national level.

    I would only do it if guaranteed that the cross-benchers would extend to tossing out any Libs who engaged in the sort of behaviour Abbott got away with during the Gillard Govt.
    A re-run of that would be a disaster.

  39. If Morrison is ditched as treasurer, probably in the name of ‘stability’, that would leave an opening for Tone to return to the front bench.

  40. The Gs claim their presence bk @ #127 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 10:27 am

    Turnbull certainly is avoiding the media. He brushed them away as he left home.

    …and therein lies his basic problem. T is weak. Just incurably weak. He cannot do the job. Now he’s running from public attention….totally useless.

  41. One thing’s for certain…can’t remember a time in the last few years when watching politics has been so interesting and so much fun. In this unreal world of PB you get all the highs, lows and everything in between. A great place for junkies to get their daily hit.

  42. tricot @ #92 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:44 am

    Over the past few weeks one sure way to have endless wasted time here is to watch the Green v Green Haters have their little war. All I know is that there is a party to the left of Labor and the sooner Labor comes to some kind of formal arrangement with the Greens the better. The LNP (read conservative media) have delighted in reminding Labor this this vote in 2016 is Labor’s second lowest PV on record and just above that of the 2013 election. What does this tell us? That the days of Labor getting a 39% PV are over.
    The seat of Perth is instructive…2007 – Smith wins on PV………2010……Smith wins with Green Prefs (a lot of them)………..2013………. MacTiernan saves the furniture with Green Prefs again……….and 2016……Hammond wins with Green Prefs yet again. This time, and to date, the Liberal candidate got 2,600 more PVs than Hammond. Meanwhile the Green PV has gone to over 16%.
    Now is true to say the demographics in Perth are changing – at the expense of the Labor vote. The writing has been on the wall for nearly 10 years now. Without the Greens, Perth would be lost – probably to the Liberals. Those who believe that Labor can wish the Greens away or abuse them away are on the wrong track for mine.

    So the Greens are successfully peeling votes off the ALP and you believe this makes them Labor’s friends? Have I got that right?
    Labor would be better off without the Greens.

  43. Victoria

    I emailed Ley several times, and tweeted her several times about her witness protection status.

    I suspect that Textor’s strategy was to hide completely all ministers except a chosen few, less some beans be spilled.

    Only those who can talk underwater non stop (ie talk over any questioner) and who are excellent, straight faced liars were allowed “out” eg Cormann, Morrison, Dutton, Brandis.

    Even Barnaby (especially Barnaby?) was not exposed much on the National scene ….. they didn’t want a Goof to speak to the Nation on behalf of Waffler’s mob.

  44. Bushfire Bill
    Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:47 am
    No-one’s mentioned Dutton’s reason for nearly losing his seat: outlaw bikie gangs protesting outside his offices.

    It was those muslim bikies from Getup that use twitter,facebook and support the greens that did it. If those guys hadnt ganged up on me I would have romped it in.

  45. The Greens just don’t seem to get it. Labor has eyes to see, and ears to hear what they have been saying and doing since the Coalition have been in power, during the negotiations for the Tax Transparency measures, for the Senate voting changes, and during the election campaign, and they have no stomach for a re-run, especially, of 2010-2013. So it is entirely understandable that Labor are saying to The Greens, ‘Naff off!’.

    And, isn’t it interesting how The Greens want to come and shop at Coles all of a sudden?

  46. Player One,

    I don’t care if he never voted. I just saw a snip of him outlining what he regards as his core issues and it seemed quite reasonable. However, I didn’t get much idea of where he stands on an ETS, negative rorting, Tax cuts etc, which I will need to make up my mind.

  48. bemused @ #133 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 10:29 am

    zoomster @ #89 Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 9:41 am

    ‘Green Senate Primary on results so far (4 July, morning):
    NSW: -0.4%
    Vic: +0.5%
    Qld: +1.53%
    WA: -4.82%
    SA: -1.39%
    Tas: -0.73%
    ACT: -2.25%
    NT: 2.22%’
    ‘A confident prediction of 12 Green Senators a few weeks ago has been slashed to 6-8. ‘
    https://organisedcontrarian.net/2016/07/04/the-great-green-wipeout-of-2016/?fb_action_ids=10154029392953598&fb_action_types=news.publishes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=%5B1097762676961239%5D&action_type_map=%5B%22news.publishes%22%5D&action_ref_map=%5B%5D
    Take comfort, K17 – there were worse predictions than yours.

    Generally good news there about the demise of one anti-Labor party.

    The WA result does not surprise me at all. Their fire is only just sputtering here. The one contribution to the election I heard from them was a program to encourage suburban tree-planting. Nice idea. Would it be seen as relevant to the great issues of the day? Not so much…

  49. Player One
    Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 10:28 am

    How can you take seriously a man who runs for elected office after admitting he has never voted?

    I am of the opinion that the person with the least interest in politics may be the most appropriate person to be in govt.
    The lust for power does corrupt.
    We need more Ricky Muirs not less. He was happy to vote himself out of office.

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