Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. [ I backed off a little this year as I won’t be getting up early to do the bunting etc at the booth. Someone else’s turn. ]

    Bemused – Undedstand clmpletely. I chickened out on the early shift but in a new electorate need to feel my way.
    Are you feeling optimistic for your candidate ?

  4. BK:

    There is no question that Palin is ignorant. The problem is that Trump made similar public statements (in Scotland of all places!), yet he’s a 50-50 chance of actually being elected POTUS!

  5. Given the way the coalition in govt have run down the NBN to the point it’s a mere shadow of its true intent, this post and photo from Senator Dean Smith is ironic in the extreme:

    Senator Dean Smith
    22 mins · · Politics
    Despite the modern age of Facebook and Twitter, some campaign techniques never fail.

    Last night Jeremy Quinn’s Perth campaign engaged in some old fashioned letter folding and envelope stuffing!

    https://www.facebook.com/SenatorDeanSmith/photos/a.584873124870104.1073741828.512699115420839/1209428022414608/?type=3&theater

    And don’t they look so happy doing snail mail, even though they must know that most people just bin that stuff without reading it because there’s no way for them to further engage. It is what it is: piece of paper.

    But you get a presence on someone’s Facebook page with an interesting photo or video and witty words to accompany it and you can actually get people to engage, either through sharing, liking or commenting. Their friends see it, thereby you have a much larger ‘footprint’.

    Living in a safe coalition seat I only ever get direct mailed by the Libs or the Nats. It’s a waste as their stuff gets thrown straight in the recycling, unread.

  6. confessions
    [ yet he’s a 50-50 chance of actually being elected POTUS!]

    Gawd 50-50 , I really hope not. Maybe 25% chance

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/27/australia-must-consider-fiscal-stimulus-if-brexit-crisis-hurts-the-gobal-economy?CMP=share_btn_tw

    The role for fiscal policy is unclear. Whichever side wins the 2 July election, the news is probably stark. The so-called incoming government briefing documents from Treasury and the Department of Finance will deliver some unwelcome news on those risks to the economy and budget. For the term of the current Coalition government, nothing has been done to improve the structural position of the budget.

    The Treasury frustration is palpable. The desirability of “reloading” the budget to give a war chest of funds to fight any future global economic risks has been an issue that Treasury hounded former treasurer Joe Hockey and then his successor, Scott Morrison, to address. Alas, nothing was done.

    Yet in the months and years ahead, there may be a need to consider fiscal stimulus if some of the worst-case scenarios from Brexit come to pass. A Brexit-inspired crisis would open a legitimate debate concerning the budget deficit versus protecting economic growth. As was evident during the banking and financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, the shrewd, pragmatic and well-targeted use of fiscal policy stimulus from the government saw the economy avoid recession and capped the unemployment rate at a remarkably low 5.9%.

  8. Funny how so many of you who wax lyrically about how we need to “stop the drownings” cannot see that in a sense brexit is doing exactly the same.

    The reality is that if you are working class in britain, Bexit makes sense. As we all know, because we have said it in this election campaign re company taxes. There is no trickle down. The fact that some London traders benefit from being part of EU is not seen by the ordinary Britains.

    So let us all be consistent. There is probably NO benefit and lots of pain from being in Europe. If you cannot control your borders then there IS strain on services – health, housing, education and transport. More unemplyed people puts downward pressure on wages. this is the reality. If you are Labor oriented then rather than bemoan them that stoopid working class (or to put it in UK terms social classes C2, D and E), think of a way to keep the standard of living decent for ordinary Brits as well as coping with the large immigrant influx. Open borders are NOT, I repeat NOT compatable with a society based on social justice. You cannot mix a decent welfare policy AND an open immigration policy. Choose one or the other, but do not assume you can do both.

  9. This is a point well made by the Editorial board of the LA Times about the Brexit:

    The vote also will affect the post-World War II movement toward an ever closer, more integrated Europe – efforts rooted in the belief, after two massive wars, that a unified Europe is a safer Europe.

    The things that unite us should be stronger than the things that divide us.

  10. Q&A “balance”: when was the last time they had a union representative on the panel? Business / industry / chamber of commerce reps – yes. Farmers Fed – yes. Right wing shock jocks – yes. When was the last teacher or nurse?

  11. Confessions

    Reading a piece on Lambie over at the Guardian.

    Lambie has her issues but the story reminds us she labelled Abbott a political psychopath after only a couple of days in the job.

    She got that right

  13. @BBCMatthewPrice
    Keep calm and think of Alastair Darling on @BBCr4today “We’ve got no government and we’ve got no opposition.”

  14. Bonza

    I’m guessing down until someone remotely sensible starts talking to the EU to find out what the 28 member states will find acceptable.

  15. confessions @ #604 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    BK:
    There is no question that Palin is ignorant. The problem is that Trump made similar public statements (in Scotland of all places!), yet he’s a 50-50 chance of actually being elected POTUS!

    In which case I think we all need to read the whole LA Times Editorial:

    Britain’s stunning vote Thursday to leave the European Union was part of a dramatic internal struggle over the country’s identity, culture and independence that will transform its role in the world for the foreseeable future. It will undoubtedly cause economic pain for its citizens while likely sparking a fresh Scottish referendum on independence, as well as a possible reassessment within Northern Ireland of its place in the United Kingdom. The “Brexit” vote may turn out to have been a blunder of historic proportions: Instead of affirming Britain’s identity and independence, it could tear the country apart.

    The vote also will affect the post-World War II movement toward an ever closer, more integrated Europe – efforts rooted in the belief, after two massive wars, that a unified Europe is a safer Europe. Today, other EU nations are wrestling with many of the same nationalistic and isolationist pressures that won the day in England. In a recent meeting at The Times, the Czech prime minister noted that if there were a referendum held in his country, a very substantial number of voters would opt to leave the EU. A senior French official raised similar concerns at a meeting with the editorial board, and nationalist leaders in France and the Netherlands are already demanding votes in their countries about leaving the EU. Unquestionably, the institution is at risk.

    Americans would be wrong to see this as a faraway dispute with no bearing on our own politics. In the United States, demagoguery, populism and the stoking of nationalist fears are also winning hearts and minds – as well as votes for presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump. On Friday, Trump cheered the Brexit vote and seemed to welcome the subsequent collapse in value of the British pound and its impact on tourism (he owns a golf resort in Scotland), oblivious to the fact that the instantly weaker currency threatens U.S. jobs by reducing American exports to an important trading partner.

    Trump’s popularity is rooted in anger and frustration – and those emotions are not only felt on the right. A different sort of dissatisfaction – but dissatisfaction nonetheless – propelled Sen. Bernie Sanders’ improbably strong showing in the Democratic race.

    Does this reflect a failure of democracy or of politics? Maybe a little of both. Elections are the foundation of a democratic system, and even when voters opt for a path that is contrary to their best interests, they need to be respected. It is through elections that competing visions and, yes, grievances, are mediated. Yet the Brexit vote also points up just how much work needs to be done by those who believe in a society that is pluralistic, pro-free-trade, non-isolationist and pro-immigration. The skeptical need to be persuaded and the disengaged need to be brought into the process.

    There are dangerous, demagogic, intolerant currents in American politics today. One lesson of the British vote is not to become complacent, not to assume that voters will eventually come to their senses and opt for the safe, responsible choice. As Trump moves from primary mode into the general election campaign, the message is clear: Don’t underestimate the power of angry voters.

  16. Cat

    I have read some of the stuff about Europe being a way of stopping wars, but I rather wonder if that is indeed true. Civil wars happen in existing european nations or those that aspire to join. I think it is prosperity that stops wars not political unions, and indeed it might be that forced political union may encourage civil war rather than reduce it.

    I have also heard aguments ( I am NOT saying I agree with them) that Europe was starting to seek control over the military of nations as a foreunner to a major attack on Russia. certainly the possibility of war with Russia is real enough. I am not sure that a united Europe makes this any less likely and indeed more fragmentation may prevent the rise of two implacably opposing military masses.

  20. The issue with Brexit is not that you can’t have a strong social safety net *and* significant immigration, it’s that if you undermine the social safety net out of ideology and spend three decades blaming immigrants, sooner or later people believe you.

  21. daretotread @ #608 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    The reality is that if you are working class in britain, Bexit makes sense.

    Working class voters very decidedly voted Remain.

    There are very good reasons for this. 50% of UK exports go the EU. Post-exit, this production will occur inside the EU and not in Britain. Brexit is akin to Australians deciding they will exclude themselves from the markets in China, Japan and Korea for minerals and energy.

    I conferred with my German butchers at lunchtime on the matter. They expressed the view that the decision:
    – was crazy
    – would only hurt the British and help the EU
    – was very sad for the people of Britain
    – was an example of bad faith
    – would be the funniest thing they’d ever heard were it not so sad for the British

  23. Also, Europe would have to be building a military for there to be any concern about the EU being a military front. The Yes, Minister joke about most EU military forces going home every weekend isn’t that far from the truth.

  24. Chinda – I did my one and only election day for the AEC in 2010. Vowed never to do it again, I was wrecked. A long hard day’s work IMO. But I am more than a bit soft I admit.

  26. C@t:

    That’s a great read, thanks for sharing.

    I admit to knowing nothing about the UK economy, but as I said the other day to Socrates, countries retreating and becoming more isolationist in the face of increasing globalisation seems counter-intuitive to lifting the living standards and participation capacities of their most disenfranchised citizenry.

    That this is what the US Republicans are advocating for America is even more reason to be sceptical about the benefits to working people.

  27. The poorest members of Australian society think that they are competing for scarce trickle down dollars with asylum seekers.
    They are right, IMO.
    The most recent waves of refugees invariably end up living cheek by jowl with the poorest members of our society.
    They do NOT end up sharing salubrious digs with inner Melbourne wealthy Greens.
    Not for a generation or so, anyway.

  30. A gloating acquaintance at a party on Saturday night said to me that Brexit was fabulous because finally the Politically Correctistas would get one right in the eye.

    He saw this as much more important than keeping Europe united, thus saving them from slaughtering each other (and a fair number of Australians in the process, too), as they have been doing since Roman times, and before.

    He saw no connect between trade and peace, common laws, a common currency on the one side, and avoiding war on the other. All he cared about was that political correctness received what he regards as actually a fatal blow.

    Now, the politically correct can be annoying at times, pouncing on quite innocent things that people do, and labelling them. But you can walk away from political correctness if you feel uncomfortable, or if you’ve just had enough being Sensitive and New Aged for today, but you can’t walk away from an army of millions weaponized to the teeth bombing your cities and slaughtering your citizens.

    So, on the whole, give me political correctness, if that’s the choice. Nothing’s perfect, but some things are definitely preferable to others.

    The trouble with this bloke was that he is of the (I think) naive belief that now we’ve had a few decades of peace in europe, that it’s peace all the way out to the horizons of Time; that Europeans have stopped hating each other; that the 60 million dead of WW2 couldn’t possibly happen ever again.

    He also believes bosses love workers so much that there’s no need for unions anymore, and that we didn’t need Labor’s school halls program because the GFC wasn’t really as serious as all the One World government types made it out to be, especially here. Did I know anyone who went broke during the GFC? Debt and deficit is all Labor knows etc. etc.

    What’s worse, after I’m on the back foot from listening to and arguing with this guy, THEN he tries to push Jesus down my throat. The political stuff is a softener-upperer for the Evangelical thing.

    Sheesh.

  31. There can be very little doubt that the EU has been an excellent institution for using diplomacy to settle matters.
    The UK has always been used to using divide and conquer with respect to its national interests in Europe.
    They are clearly going to have another go at this now.
    Whether this is anyone’s long term interests is, IMO, extremely doubtful.

  33. Cupidstunt
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 1:53 pm
    All Ords up 33 points.

    It actually finished at plus 23 if I am reading it right.

    I don’t know if anyone has commented on it yet, but Boerwar said yesterday that if the all ords went up today – which it has apparently – Bluey might review his write off of Labor’s chances (and presumably restore the record of all the winning days which he has allotted Labor over the Liberals during the campaign. He had a bit of a cheek re-writing history on that I thought).

    So if you haven’t already done so Boerwar wake the little blue bugger up and see what he thinks now.

  36. The UK has always been used to using divide and conquer with respect to its national interests in Europe.

    There’s an excellent Yes Minister clip doing the rounds on social media with Sir Humphrey making exactly this point. Wtte ‘we’re only in the EU so we can wreck it from the inside and carry on with our usual war-mongering ways.’ Just brilliant when you consider the show is 40+ years old.

  37. When they updated Yes, Minster scripts for the stage revival a few years back, the only things they had to add were references to coalition government, the Greek crisis, and phone hacking. Everything else still worked.

  38. “Q&A “balance”: when was the last time they had a union representative on the panel? Business / industry / chamber of commerce reps – yes. Farmers Fed – yes. Right wing shock jocks – yes. When was the last teacher or nurse?”

    Or climate scientist, or tech expert.

  39. dtt,

    I have also heard aguments ( I am NOT saying I agree with them) that Europe was starting to seek control over the military of nations as a foreunner to a major attack on Russia. certainly the possibility of war with Russia is real enough. I am not sure that a united Europe makes this any less likely and indeed more fragmentation may prevent the rise of two implacably opposing military masses.

    Actually, as I understand it, it was NATO who were keen to bring former USSR nations, such as the Ukraine, into the EU fold, and also to equip them with Patriot Missile batteries, in order to act as a counterbalance to the increasingly belligerent and expansionist tendencies of Putin. Which has had it’s own blow back.

    Thus the expansionist yearnings of the EU, to become big enough to hold back Russia, met head-on with Russia’s desire to take back what it believes is, by tradition and history, the Russian ‘United States’.

    So, actually, more fragmentation will likely play right into Putin’s hands, and if I were Marine Le Pen, et al., I would be careful what I wished for.

  40. Teh drewski:

    That doesn’t surprise me at all. Even now you can watch any episode from back then, even the Yes Prime Minister ones, and it all still has relevance today. That it even can be applied in an Australian context is just further proof of the brilliance of the original script writers.

  41. Justin Stevens ‏@_JustinStevens_ · 8h8 hours ago

    Super human effort by awesome @4corners editors @guypbowden & @bossy26 getting tonight’s Election Special finished

  42. Those convinced that the Guardian is running a Tory plot to suppress First Dog will, no doubt, be pleased by his return from holidays today.

  45. Adrian – indeed. I would also like to see Ross Gittins for a more progressive, egalitarian perspective by an economist.

  46. There is also the background irony….which is that the energy for the creation of the EEC came from the US, who saw an economic and customs union as a means of reducing European dependency on the US in the postwar/Cold War era. The US put up the money for the exposition of the political and economic case for union.

    By now, it’s obvious the EU system has become hegemonic. But it might be better than the inverse, which would be nationally fragmented and would entrench cross-border competition for some and customs union for others. The question is which system is more or less stable? A hegemonic Europe anchored around the industrial power of the economy of the Rhine, or an uneven patchwork of competing domains?

    The hegemonic system has been evolving for 800 years. It is sufficiently productive, internally dynamic, flexible, inter-connected and populous to rival the US economy. Doubtless it will continue to evolve without the participation of the UK.

  48. My life just gets shittier and shittier
    [LIONEL Messi sensationally announced his retirement from international football after Argentina crashed to an upset defeat against Chile in the final of the Copa America. ]
    Stuff Brexit. Stuff the election.
    THIS MATTERS!!!!

  49. adrian @ #493 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 2:52 pm

    “Do you seriously think it took 30 minutes to script the entire thing?”
    What’s the matter with you?
    I was clearly referring to the intro and conclusion!
    I could be wrong, but I would assume that the particular reporter would be responsible largely for the script of the program he or she reporting on.

    Alright, maybe we have a misunderstanding here, but I believe the host does a bit more than just opening and closing the show and provide editorial input into the weekly programs. Otherwise they would just get a young up and coming presenter to read cue cards rather than have a veteran jorno do it. So, no I don’t think Sarah Ferguson or any of the other previous hosts for 4 Corners just take 30 minutes to prepare for it.

    Regarding the home page photos, no, I do not think 4 Corners have any input into that.

    So I apologise if I give the impression that I was looking for a biffo and gave you a hard time about what you said, but I feel the need to dispute that the host of the show was only reading cue cards.

  50. Years ago – well before he became leader – there was a bit of discussion going amongst media types along the lines of ‘why do male journos think Abbott is great but female journos find him a bit repulsive.’

    I think the key is probably sport – where an interest in cricket or football can paper over a lot of personality differences and ‘a good bloke’ is someone who you can have a beer with whilst dissecting Saturday’s game.

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