Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. “My life just gets shittier and shittier

    LIONEL Messi sensationally announced his retirement from international football after Argentina crashed to an upset defeat against Chile in the final of the Copa America.

    Stuff Brexit. Stuff the election.
    THIS MATTERS!!!!”

    This could get Messi, Dio!

  4. sohar @ #625 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:45 pm

    Why has Morgan been so coy this election? Results not to Gary’s liking?

    I suspect we may see another result which is not in accordance with ‘the polls’.
    I re-listened to a Philip Adams interview about the campaign to leave the EU (June 9)
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/latenightlive/brexit/7497024
    wherein Martin Kettle (Guardian Assoc Editor) noted the polls (up to June 9) were showing exit was possible, and the online polls were showing ‘leave’ whereas phone polls were indicating ‘remain’ as more likely.
    I believe we should be sceptical about phone polls. Since 2013 we have had three years new, young voters enrolling, and three years of older voters dying off. Younger voters do not use fixed phones, and, typically, send unknown callers straight to voice mail.
    When it comes to close elections this may add a significant, but unknown, amount to the MOE.

  5. Teh media love to do the ‘the major parties are on the nose’ meme, and have been doing that to death for decades (I first campaigned in 1996, and it was a ‘thing’ then).

    Heard some journo banging on with ‘voters are more disaffected than ever’ on the radio this afternoon. (As someone pointed out earlier, there’s no evidence that the ‘Others’ vote is very different this election to last). Trump is often cited as part of the ‘proof’ that this is so.

    Which made me remember the fuss about Hanson. She was supposed to be a symptom of voter disaffection. Ordinary Aussies, disillusioned with the major parties, were apparently flocking to her cause. (In the 1998 election, one electoral officer here was so sure that was true he did the 2PP count as Hanson/Liberals, even though Hanson had been outpolled on primaries at that booth).

    She did well in Queensland, it must be admitted, but her federal result was around 8% (which, based on observations since, is about the RWNJ ‘a curse on both your parties’ vote).

    Trump will crash and burn in similar fashion, because, like her, he has nothing real to offer.

  6. Zoomster
    I am not so sure female journalists found Abbott repulsive. He had his share of cheerleaders.

    A male journalist of my acquaintance, not a political type, met Abbott once in a social environment and came away smitten. Yep they talked rugby and men’s stuff.

    That was enough for my mate, who also was an avowed Turnbull hater, to devalue he would be a great PM.

    Sadly we went on different paths before Abbott became PM and royally stuffed up and had to be replaced by Turnbull. So I never knew how he felt about that.

    On reflection my mate was wrong about Abbott but right about Turnbull.

  8. RaaRaa,on TV hosting:

    Otherwise they would just get a young up and coming presenter to read cue cards rather than have a veteran jorno do it. So, no I don’t think Sarah Ferguson or any of the other previous hosts for 4 Corners just take 30 minutes to prepare for it.

    I’m here to tell you you’re wrong.

    I used to work in the NBN 9 Sydney News room as a news tape editor.

    Brian Henderson used to arrive at 5.45pm for the 6pm bulleting. He’d do a quick read while make up was applied. Then he’d read the news, and be out of the studios before the end credits music was finished (i.e. within 30 seconds).

    All the promos showing him standing next to the teleprinter, ripping the ticker tape off with a worried expression on his face, as if to say, “Hmmm… Russia’s gone to war with China… I’d better tell Australia about this,”, were so much guff. They were filmed at some newspaper office on the other side of Sydney, not even in 9’s own newsroom.

    I’m sure he read the news with gravitas, but I’l tell you now, very few presenters even know what they’re talking about, much less are interested in the story they’re presenting. Sarah Whatsername might be an exception, but I doubt it.

    And yes, all those stories about newsreaders wearing suit tops with stubbies and thongs beneath the desk top are true.

  9. Morgan has been doing respondent allocated preference polling, which seems more favourable to Labor. We had the libs of 47.5, then 49, then 49 (which wasn’t really publicised). Did wonder if they needed to do a bit of massaging to produce the 49s.

  10. “I think the key is probably sport – where an interest in cricket or football can paper over a lot of personality differences and ‘a good bloke’ is someone who you can have a beer with whilst dissecting Saturday’s game.”

    I think this also accounts for a lot of the language around men who hurt women and children. If he’s a great guy to chat with, good for a laugh, or coaches the local kids’ footy team, it is inconceivable that he could also be the sort of bloke who hurts women and children – hence the frequent “out of character” or “he must have cracked” minimisations.

    Until we, as a society, accept that ordinary people are capable or doing truly horrendous things to other people – without any victim-blaming – it will continue to happen with alarming regularity.

    Sorry to get heavy, but it’s something I feel strongly about.

  11. lizzie @ #607 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/27/australia-must-consider-fiscal-stimulus-if-brexit-crisis-hurts-the-gobal-economy?CMP=share_btn_tw

    The role for fiscal policy is unclear. Whichever side wins the 2 July election, the news is probably stark. The so-called incoming government briefing documents from Treasury and the Department of Finance will deliver some unwelcome news on those risks to the economy and budget. For the term of the current Coalition government, nothing has been done to improve the structural position of the budget.
    The Treasury frustration is palpable. The desirability of “reloading” the budget to give a war chest of funds to fight any future global economic risks has been an issue that Treasury hounded former treasurer Joe Hockey and then his successor, Scott Morrison, to address. Alas, nothing was done.
    Yet in the months and years ahead, there may be a need to consider fiscal stimulus if some of the worst-case scenarios from Brexit come to pass. A Brexit-inspired crisis would open a legitimate debate concerning the budget deficit versus protecting economic growth. As was evident during the banking and financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, the shrewd, pragmatic and well-targeted use of fiscal policy stimulus from the government saw the economy avoid recession and capped the unemployment rate at a remarkably low 5.9%.

    I’m a bit conflicted. A part of me wants “those guys” to have the poisoned chalice and see them struggle to try. Another part of me knows that they will throw everything out including the kitchen sink to keep this façade of financial responsibility and everyone will be worse off.

  12. Further to my post here: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/26/newspoll-51-49-coalition-9/comment-page-8/#comment-2430106

    John Howard has said industrial relations reform is “unfinished business” and noted the Turnbull government had not ruled out changes in the area.

    The Australian Council of Trade Unions has warned that the fact the government has not responded to a major workplace relations report means it has “something to hide”, and will bring back policies similar to the unpopular Howard-era WorkChoices.

    Speaking on Sky on Monday, the former prime minister said: “Industrial relations and taxation reform remain unfinished business in this country, and at some point they need to be addressed.

    “And I don’t see anything in what the government has said to rule that out. But as to when it happens and what form it takes is obviously a matter for the government of the day.”

    And:

    Enterprise contracts would allow businesses to move groups of employees off the award on to the new instrument, provided the new contract met a no-disadvantage test.

    However, if employees did not think their new conditions were more favourable they would have to complain to an independent regulator and challenge the agreement, or wait 12 months to revert to award pay.

    ACTU Secretary Dave Oliver said this meant that enterprise contracts could reduce award conditions and would “further diminish the bargaining capacity of workers”.

    “Nobody buys that an individual worker, someone who stacks the shelves at a major retail outlet, can bargain with their employer,” he said. “What sort of bargaining capacity do they have against a multinational retailer?”

    Oliver said it was “highly likely the government will push for some form of industrial relations reform” in the next term.

    “There’s no way the government can claim to have a mandate on anything on industrial relations,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/27/coalition-hiding-plans-for-industrial-relations-reform-say-unions

  14. Comparing a journalist to a newsreader probably isn’t entirely fair, although I have absolutely no idea how 4Corners produce their program.

  15. BK
    #612 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:31 pm
    Oh dear! Could Alan Jones really be in a spot of bother?
    https://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2016/06/25/alan-jones-is-under-investigation-by-nsw-police-for-statutory-rape-of-boys-in-the-1980s/

    My parents were in the UK at the time he was arrested there.They said the headlines were quite damning and extensive about him, nothing like it was here. My parents were amazed so little was published here – which suggests that having friends in the right places can really cover things up in this country.

    Tom.

  17. Raaraa

    I know just what you mean. On past experience, no matter how ineffectively they handle an economy in difficulties, they will still be praised by the RW media.
    OTOH if Labor gets in just as everything goes toes-up, it will immediately be Labor’s fault.

  18. C@t

    That advert could be taken two ways – don’t know how it was intended, but I didn’t read it the same way as Mrs Windsor. But it is the Nats….

  19. bushfire bill @ #658 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 6:28 pm

    RaaRaa,on TV hosting:

    Otherwise they would just get a young up and coming presenter to read cue cards rather than have a veteran jorno do it. So, no I don’t think Sarah Ferguson or any of the other previous hosts for 4 Corners just take 30 minutes to prepare for it.

    I’m here to tell you you’re wrong.
    I used to work in the NBN 9 Sydney News room as a news tape editor.
    Brian Henderson used to arrive at 5.45pm for the 6pm bulleting. He’d do a quick read while make up was applied. Then he’d read the news, and be out of the studios before the end credits music was finished (i.e. within 30 seconds).
    All the promos showing him standing next to the teleprinter, ripping the ticker tape off with a worried expression on his face, as if to say, “Hmmm… Russia’s gone to war with China… I’d better tell Australia about this,”, were so much guff. They were filmed at some newspaper office on the other side of Sydney, not even in 9’s own newsroom.
    I’m sure he read the news with gravitas, but I’l tell you now, very few presenters even know what they’re talking about, much less are interested in the story they’re presenting. Sarah Whatsername might be an exception, but I doubt it.
    And yes, all those stories about newsreaders wearing suit tops with stubbies and thongs beneath the desk top are true.

    Ah, yeah, the celebrity presenters. There’s that too. Behind every presenter is an army of hard-working staff who gets little or no credit.

  20. C@t:

    I just watched that ad online. I’d hazard a guess that Windsor voters weren’t necessarily millennial women gossiping over coffee, but everyday people (men and women) fed up with the Nationals taking them for granted.

    Has anything changed with Barnaby in NE? On the surface you’d have to say no.

  22. I was SMS polled by Morgan last Thursday. Expect them to issue something this week, unless Gary is pulling our chain.

  23. Barry Tucker ‏@btckr · 11m11 minutes ago

    I’m pretty sure Sheryle @bagwellian’s remark about Labor “always marked down despite GFC” has been wiped from RN brekkie replay.

    Space Ki…Buffering ‏@SpaceKidette · 14m14 minutes ago

    Did a news scan this afternoon. Every channel is positively reporting the Coalition. Shorten only rates a brief mention.

  25. The last Morgan Poll is the only breakdown i can fond for SA, it has
    SA: May 30: LNP 31%, NXT 26.5%, ALP 25%, GRN 8.5%, OTH 9%
    Election 2013: LNP 44.5%, NXT 0%, ALP 35.7%, GRN 8.3%, OTH 11.5%
    Swings: LNP -13.5%, NXT +26.5%, ALP -10.7%, GRN +0.2%, OTH -2.5%
    So at that stage NXT was taking more primaries from LNP than ALP, and at only 2.8% different it would have insignificant effect on national results.

  26. I’m still shocked at the media and political response to Brexit and how fast people seem willing to drop the democratic principle when a vote does not go as expected … even your ABC.

  27. So the government signed a defence contract in April and today they finally announce it to boost votes. How is it legitimate?

  29. The problem re Corbyn is the dominance of the media by the “Rupert” and co , the same lot who churn out all the anti EU , anti immigrant bilge. The headlines churned out when Corbyn looked like becoming leader were OTT to the max. It was hysterical scare mongering. Having seen that you’d have to expect such gutter press coverage would continue unabated. So what hope whilst the press barons keep their grip.
    Sadly the remedy is to find a leader who will kiss Rupert’s ring as Tony Blah , Rudd and Tones did.

  30. Bernard Keane makes a very good point about betting on elections: we’re asked to accept the wisdom of those foolish enough to let themselves get fleeced by bookmakers (while protesting that they come out ahead).

  32. Rummel:

    If you’re expecting the post Brexit Revolution to be led by Australians and our media outlets I’d put it to you that you are setting yourself up for disappointment on a grand scale.

    Australians have done their rubber-necking on Brexit and are moving on.

  38. After Jack Miller won the Assen MotoGP yesterday @ 500 to 1 odds I am not sure about bookmakers predictions!!!

  40. Hmm. The NT Country Liberal Party Minister who sent a constituent videos of himself masturbating has resigned. But with a parting shot (pun intended) to his remaining former colleagues.

    “”I will remember you and the words you uttered” frmr min Nathan Barrett says to #NTpol colleagues in announcing resignation @TheNTNews”

  41. “Did a news scan this afternoon. Every channel is positively reporting the Coalition. Shorten only rates a brief mention.”

    The fix is in folks, and probably always has been.
    Labor has offended too many of the spivs’ vested interest groups to make this anything close to being a fair contest.

  43. Corporate_misfit @ 7:17 pm
    After Jack Miller won the Assen MotoGP yesterday @ 500 to 1 odds I am not sure about bookmakers predictions!!!
    That’s ok. Just add your name to the long list of people here who don’t understand betting odds!

  44. Corporate_misfit

    After Jack Miller won the Assen MotoGP

    I watched the first half of it and then decided watching them going slow in the rain was not entertaining so I went to bed.

    Bugger!

  45. If Greens are only polling at or below 10 percent, that is not brilliant for the Greens and not particularly useful for the ALP is Bilbo’s Bludgertrack is correct with a 33% primary. What will be interesting is to see where Palmer/KAP goes in this election. Evidence last election showed a strong bleed from PUP to Labor compared with KAP to Labor but having NXT in the mix could be a viable option for those wishing “a pox on both your houses”.

    Without either (or both) of a strong Greens showing or higher primary vote for the ALP it will be difficult to see many net gains for either party in the HOR, though the Greens should fare better in the senate than in the last election, with the landscape less cluttered (thanks to the changes that the greens pragmatically agreed to passing in the senate).

    There is still room for a few NXT surprises in the mix… not sure if they would be successful with a seat outside SA though Nick X will almost certainly have a buddy in the senate.

    I think the Medicare thing may possibly have backfired. If Shorten was so convinced of the strategy then there was nothing to lose from the ‘hand on heart’ moment with Leigh Sales, who was obviously going for a gotcha. It is just not a very good lie. It reminds me of Kevin Rudd bleating about the campaign lie last election, “the 70 Billion Dollar black hole”… fact checked to death, Even Tony Jones picked Ruddy up in that final debate but he used it three times later in that same debate. This just erodes the brand of Labor.

    Granted, the coalition has their won scare campaign running, predictably, on boats but to swinging voters (largely those in Western Sydney and SE Queensland) this issue has more traction than a lie about Medicare. After all, the border protection did actually fall apart horribly on Labor’s watch, whereas anyone with any understanding of business and economics could see that ‘Medicare’ is not an asset, it is a perpetual liability and not able to be sold. Not that your average punter would necessarily thing this through but the Medicare lie is getting traction in the press.

    We have no way of knowing why the latest Newspoll had the edge to the coalition. I seriously doubt it had much at all to do with Brexit issues. Many Australians would be oblivious to the issues here and drawing parallels here is a low bow. Even in the UK there wasn’t polarity along party lines to any serious degree. A possibility is that this Labor lie is unravelling.

    I wonder whether it is too late to change the text on the buntings, yet? 😉 There might be a lot of angry voters if this Medicare strategy backfires…

  46. STEELE – If there is a big anti-incumbent mood among the “Others” as is suspected/hoped/prayed, then Labor can definitely do it. If not, we get a replay in three year’s time.

  49. [The issue with Brexit is not that you can’t have a strong social safety net *and* significant immigration, it’s that if you undermine the social safety net out of ideology and spend three decades blaming immigrants, sooner or later people believe you.]

  50. It’s just ‘amazing’ how the Liberal leaning commenters all keep mentioning that Labor may have overdone it on Medicare …

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