Another electorate polling round-up

A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls provide much better news for Labor, while insider accounts of the state of play feature reams of seats that could go either way.

The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:

Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.

Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.

Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.

Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.

Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.

Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.

Elsewhere:

• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.

• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.

• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 comments on “Another electorate polling round-up”

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  1. Lindsay,
    Its a sport. You caring so much what I think of the sport is proving my point. And you say I have insecurities.

    Being accused of living in an ivory tower, a ruling elite, and a Neville is quite amusing tho. I havent had so many derogatory words thrown at me since I offended Bemused about something equally unimportant.

  2. kevin bonham @ #2149 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:42 pm

    Tassie polling (all five electorates) coming tomorrow. I’ve seen it but under embargo. The Mercury has tweeted “There will be big upsets in several Tasmanian seats according to exclusive ReachTEL polling.” Detailed analysis on my site (kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au) tomorrow 8:30 am.

    A scoop alert !! Well done KB

  6. It looks like Shorten is seeking to neutralise any advantage the Liberals try to gain pre-election by saying basically the same thing as Turnbull. The same approach as on boats.

    [Bill Shorten has joined the prime minister and treasurer in calling for calm as financial markets tumble after the surprise decision by Britain to leave the European Union.
    He says the decision will have little direct economic impact on Australia.
    “We urge people to be calm and not to necessarily confuse the volatility in the stock market with any shift in Australia’s fundamentals,” he told reporters in Cairns on Friday.]
    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/shorten-calls-for-calm-on-brexit-vote/news-story/d3c3c706e5f7dfc00e25217cf0f8e04a

  8. William and Kevin – what do you make of the reverse result to polling in UK ?

    The fact that it isn’t compulsory blows away MOEs?

  9. Citizen doesn’t sounding the same as the government risk making people thinking a change will achieve nothing and we might as well stay with the government?

  10. kevin bonham @ #2149 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:42 pm

    Tassie polling (all five electorates) coming tomorrow. I’ve seen it but under embargo. The Mercury has tweeted “There will be big upsets in several Tasmanian seats according to exclusive ReachTEL polling.” Detailed analysis on my site (kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au) tomorrow 8:30 am.

    You can tell us now, we won’t let on.

  12. [Edi_Mahin
    Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:47 pm
    Citizen doesn’t sounding the same as the government risk making people thinking a change will achieve nothing and we might as well stay with the government?]

    What it does is to neutralise Turnbull’s argument that the only way to keep stability is to stay with the government i.e. the opposition will maintain stability as well as the current government.

  13. briefly @ #2143 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:38 pm

    C@t…do you think you can glean anything about voting intention from early voters’ demeanour?

    I was at a notoriously strong place for Labor, however I am seeing people indicating that the Coalition have a smell about them.

    I said towards the beginning of the campaign that this election will be an arm wrestle.
    I believe it. This is a battle for every last vote.

  14. Mark Carney could not sound more boring if he tried.

    The Bank of England shouldn’t go in for bells and whistles, just steadiness.

  15. Would the UK Conservative Party be interested in a person with prior PM experience who may still be a British citizen?

  16. Citizen, true, if the plan is defend Labor’s position.
    However it is quite likely Labor (although far from certain) needs to gain votes to win a majority government so doesn’t need Shorten need to try and win more votes.

  21. c@tmomma @ #2163 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:51 pm

    briefly @ #2143 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:38 pm

    C@t…do you think you can glean anything about voting intention from early voters’ demeanour?

    I was at a notoriously strong place for Labor, however I am seeing people indicating that the Coalition have a smell about them.
    I said towards the beginning of the campaign that this election will be an arm wrestle.
    I believe it. This is a battle for every last vote.

    Thanks C@t…..then more power to your arm -:)

    No vote can be taken for granted….absolutely agree with that. On the phone, I’ve sensed that Labor-inclined voters are more than usually strongly disposed…more certain than usual…to vote Labor. So the Lib-distractors are not working this time.

    I’ll be door-knocking next week too in Perth…in areas that were good for Labor for many years but have faded the other way in recent elections. It will be interesting to see how voters are responding…much older, more established areas than the Cowan hotspots….

  22. [what do you make of the reverse result to polling in UK]
    People are impulsive last minute shoppers. Exit was the shiniest thing on the rack of cheap toys.

    At least thats how it appears up here in my ivory tower where I rule the masses from.

  23. Boris is like Abbott. Gimme the job or I’ll wreck the joint. The Conservatives have fed BAM BAM for decades. One way or another, he is about to bite the hand that fed him.

  24. briefly,

    I’ve sensed that Labor-inclined voters are more than usually strongly disposed…more certain than usual…to vote Labor. So the Lib-distractors are not working this time.

    Yep.

  25. SK

    No I took issue with your characterisation of people watching the footy as having short attention spans. It was pretty snooty.

    Live and let live mate.

  29. Citizen -[Would the UK Conservative Party be interested in a person with prior PM experience who may still be a British citizen?]
    Is there a petition I can sign to make this happen?

  34. The London Economic‏ @LondonEconomic
    The UK is no longer the world’s 5th largest economy. The £ has fallen so far that France has overtaken us. #EUref

  40. Lizzie,

    Chap on The Drum said that one factor in the vote was globalisation.

    I’m detecting it this election in Oz too. I think it’s working against the government, who are pushing their ‘Free’ Trade Agreements so strongly.

    One guy I spoke to when doorknocking just wanted Australia to keep making things! People are seeing their country and their jobs being swallowed up by globalisation.

  45. boerwar @ #2178 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    Dave
    And you seriously think the germans couldn’t cobble together a couple of dozen in the next six months?

    …………………………………………………………..

    Don’t doubt they could – but that in itself would get the French thinking.

    Do the germans really want it come to that? either they get their way totally or they wreck Europe – for the 3rd,4th, 5th time?

  46. c@tmomma @ #2190 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:09 pm

    Lizzie,
    Chap on The Drum said that one factor in the vote was globalisation.
    I’m detecting it this election in Oz too. I think it’s working against the government, who are pushing their ‘Free’ Trade Agreements so strongly.
    One guy I spoke to when doorknocking just wanted Australia to keep making things! People are seeing their country and their jobs being swallowed up by globalisation.

    Similar sentiment from the Lib on pre-poll with me today. Go figure.

  47. 51-49 to LNP on ReachTEL from 7 News, but positive moves to Labor and the Greens on the primaries. 50-50 in Cowper.

  48. “Sales has Turnbull on tonight to discuss events in Britain. After last nights appalling effort from her, I imagine only the most hardcore tories will be watching. I think she damaged herself beyond repair last night.”

    I expect Sales to give the best foot rub to statesman PM Turnbull saviour of western democracy

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