There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
@Colton
I think you underestimate how well placed under Di Natale the Greens would be in the unlikely event that Labor turn down stable government. To turn down the Greens olive branch makes Labor look pure, petulant and entitled in contrast and helps Di Natale in his mission to undo decades of carefully constructed anti-Green myths.
One thing worse than disappointing party supporters is signalling to the country that you’re too much of an infant to get over the politics and put together a stable administration. So if you think it hurts the Greens to make them martyrs of mature politics, think again.
Rejecting the Greens olive branch would alienate more left-Labor and former Democrats, pushing them toward the Greens and, sure, probably move more disgruntled Liberals who hate the Greens across into Labor. It would grow both parties by taking Labor further to the right, vacating contested space to the left.
That’s why I think this debate has so much steam, both parties think it is good for them and they both might be right. The only losers are the Liberals who are put on the defensive trying to outbid Labor on the right over who hates progressives more.
Kindof sucks for the long-term health of our democracy, but I reckon that’s stuffed anyway until we get a real electoral system.
Carey
The best opposition to Labor in SA isn’t from the Libs, it’s always someone else. Remember Chanteloise, and now that Knox guy who was underdosed for his leukaemia. And Mr X. The Libs are shit; but Labor look even worse at the moment. If they toss Snelling about 6 months before the election, Labor will probably win again.
I too think Lee is a troll for the Liberals, but he does have a point in that relying on the likes of Michael Lawler to protect penalty rates may not be a water tight strategy.
I am rather concerned that so called “independent” bodies are not as independent as they once were. CSIRO is just one example.
Robert Lynch2 – you should have a chat with C@Tmomma who comments here. She is active with Labor’s campaign in Robertson.
http://insidestory.org.au/fact-and-fiction-on-the-campaign-trail
Wilson Tuckey lives!
https://www.facebook.com/RickWilsonMP/posts/499887266879537
Imacca – I wasn’t just referring to Lee Wool – RDN and Bandt (and I’m sure other Greens have too) have both called for penalty rates to be legislated, and both have bashed Labor for defending independent arbitration.
Sometimes when you say something too many times, it loses its potency.
I haven’t heard much from Jobsen Groethe lately, come to think of it.
adrian @ #858 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:38 pm
And a good thing too.
If Labor wins the largest majority in the lower house if there is no clear winner why would the go cap in hand to anyone, it’s up to the others, If Labor governs in minority and there is a vote of no confidence it’s not Labors fault.
Raaraa – perhaps you’re right.
@WarrenPeace
If you think voters wouldn’t punish Labor for failing to even get their government off the runway, best of luck to you.
Poll Bludger is always a good antidote to the Murdoch media/talkback radio!
The Australian going in hard today on Shorten and Labor makes me think that Murdoch is getting a tad worried that his boy might not be totally over the line yet.
Guys, who else remembers Glen, who used to be a regular here in 2007? He was a cut above the average Liberal troll.
And when I have conversations with others, it’s also number one on their lists.
Our healthcare system is among the best in the world – actual value for money. Our life expectancy for both men and women is higher than the OECD average so whatever we spend on health, we get back because people who live longer, pay tax longer.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/how-the-federal-government-is-already-privatising-medicare-20160620-gpmzpm.html
phoenixgreen @ #851 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:32 pm
The delusion is strong in this one.
Don’t take this the wrong way, Evan Parsons, but I always thought you were Glen, Something Sparrow, and a number of other aliases Glen used.
I must have been wrong.
Diogenes, if NXT manage to establish themselves as a responsible third party (and maybe move their name away from being reliant on Nick Xenophon), I could foresee a possibility of them actually being in state coalition governments with either the Liberals or Labor and, should they make a good impression, maybe even be leading said coalitions.
The other day, I mused over the assertion that NXT preferences in SA might flow more strongly to Labor than the Liberals. Although I am skeptical of the assertion and would like to see how they do actually end up flowing before analysing, I did consider the possibility of them being a force of anti-incumbency and their preferences going against whichever party is in government at the time (and they would flow against Labor at the next state election.) But, I don’t want to look too much into the idea right now because it is based purely on a big hypothetical assumption right now.
However the votes go on July 2, I feel like there is going to be a lot of interesting things to analyse in the ashes of this election.
Warren
Of course Shorten would negotiate with the cross benches, to keep government, just as Annastacia P does in Qld. In her case she is beholden to Katter and 2 regional independents (hence Adani). She also has the support of Wellington, a genuine independent who plays the fair broker role. He demands that there be no corruption or funny business.
Shorten is a very good negotiator and I am sure he can handle it wiothout getting into the muddle Gillard did. The photo op with brown and Milne was a PR disaster, so this should be avoided (not good for Greens either)
[If you think voters wouldn’t punish Labor for failing to even get their government off the runway, best of luck to you.]
I honestly think Labor would be rewarded by voters for refusing to accept any ridiculous blackmail from the greens.
If on the other hand the greens promise unconditional support for Labor to implement its election strategy even I will be impressed and have to revise my position on the greens (where that position is based on their CPRS betrayal of the environment).
Carey
I fully agree with you, although NXT could well implode like PUP. It seems as if the Liberals are moving further to the right and there is a niche for a strong centre party.
millennial @ #834 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:25 pm
Just like the Liberals, The Greens never let the facts get in the way of a Labor smear.
Evan Parsons #864 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:44 pm
I wouldn’t call Glen a troll just a lib supporter who sometimes stood alone against all us Labor supporters. When he made a mistake he could laugh at himself, had a good sense of humor, something that would not go astray here sometimes.
Glenn still comments from time to time. Albeit very periodically.
RobertLynch – did you email or ring?
If you emailed it may be buried under thousands of others … call your local candidate office … or rock up and talk to someone face-to-face
I should just clarify that my discussion of NXT’s potential is limited to SA. I do not see anything yet that suggest it has any real legs anywhere else.
What about this scenario.
71 each and 8 others consisting of 3 Green 1 NXP Wilkie Mcgowan Katter and Windsor. Libs would need to get all non Greens including Wilkie to support no confidence. Lab would need Wilkie plus 3 Greens plus 1 other. We would be living in interesting times.
Jenauthor,
I think the Labor brains trust watched the British elections very closely. They knew Crosby/Textor was running that show and would come back to run the Coalition’s. They were prepared for the tactics. They also watched Obama’s campaign and how they did the grassroots thing.
And the Wellstone Foundation.
WWP
I agree with you. I think that the Greens pushed Gillard too hard on the Carbon Tax, ultimately leading to her defeat. A more gradual increase in the carbon price may not have scared the horses quite so much. She should also have been allowed to have an ETS not a Caron Tax, just for the look of the thing.
Legislative protection of penalty rates would be far stronger than trusting ministerial appointees to do it. It is very difficult for the Coalition to take clear and direct responsibility for eroding penalty rates. It is easy for them to appoint their stooges to the FWC and wait for that dam to break. They have plausible deniability then.
One of the dumbest, most gutless things Labor has done on industrial relations is to refuse to use legislation to expand the power of vulnerable workers. The FWC is a forum in which workers’ rights get chipped away over time and real minimum wages fall further and further behind national productivity. The FWC is accountable to no-one; the parliament is accountable to the people. The parliament is the proper forum for deciding the minimum level of wages and conditions that our society is willing to accept.
Evan Parsons is the commenter formerly known as Even14, an extreme Ruddist and even more extreme anti Gillardist and even more extreme (based on his Facebook comments) misogynist.
RobertLynch2,
If you are in Robertson then I would say that the reason the local Labor team haven’t got back to you about volunteering is because they have been going from 5am till dinner time every day campaigning, doorknocking, handing out at the train stations and doing the Pre Polls.
If you really want to help we would appreciate it and I would give Mr Bowe permission to give you my email address if you want to contact me with your particulars so that I may pass them on, after you have contacted him.
Jenauthor,
Robert Lynch can contact me via William. I have a direct line to the campaign as I see them every day at the Pre Poll.
Peg:
Just like Malc and his millions squirrelled away in the Cayman Islands. It’s said no laws were broken here either. Doesn’t make it right though.
Well, that’s RDN’s claim. Hard to substantiate when they kept no time sheets etc. and a situation ripe for exploitation. RDN and his wife could have easily just advertised they’d pay minimum wages, but instead engaged a labor hire firm for advice on how to hire live-in servants at the cheapest way possible within the law.
Thanks C@Tmomma. I think I will get in touch with Deb O’Neill’s office as she is not far away.
C@Tmomma – what’s the mood like in Robertson, if you don’t mind me asking?
It seems like the Splenetic Greens tag team of Lightweight Lee Wool and Pottsy have been replaced by the Airhead duo of Phoenix Green Kool Aid and If Green Pigs Could Fly like Pegasus.
I mean, really, dissing on Labor’s 10 Year Plan when The Greens keep talking pie-in-the-sky about their rise, nay their surge, to majority government in 2030.
Too funny.
jimmydoyle @ #886 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 11:14 pm
Baseball bats out for the Coalition, just quietly. The Coalition planning to gut Medicare/make people pay more for it, has been like touching the 3rd rail.
No wonder they turned on a dime and abandoned their ‘Jobs and Growth’ mantra, which they were rabbiting on with yesterday, to ‘You can trust us with Medicare’ today.
Some guy told me he couldn’t wait to get in there to the polling place so he ‘could kick these bastards out!’. I heard about one elector throwing a cup of coffee at the Liberal MP yesterday afternoon, and this morning I saw someone walking into the polling place giving here a mouthful!
Still, I’m not surprised people around Woy Woy are ropeable with the sort of attitudes the Liberals have towards them. By way of an example, one of the Liberals said to me today, “Well, what do you expect? It’s Woy Woy.” Absolute disrespect for their fellow Australians.
robert lynch2 @ #885 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 11:08 pm
If you have no luck, contact me via William.
Night all. : )
Sportsbet now has X favourite in Mayo, and closing fast in Barker, Grey and Boothby.
Some positive movement odds wise for Labor in the seats of Eden Monaro and Page, and a bit of an improvement in Banks since the last time I looked.
C@Tmomma – very interesting! I think we’ll all be watching the Robertson (and Dobell) results very closely. For mine, I’m pretty confident Labor will win Paterson quite comfortably.
I’m surprised (yet not surprised) that the Liberals would be so rude. Surely they realise pre-pollers would come from all over the electorate.
Confessions – I’ll always be a Ruddite, and proud of it.
But very much supporting Bill Shorten this time round
Libs policies:
Doom and Gloom;
Jobson Growth.
Patterson……..has stayed the same odds wise for a few weeks – Labor 1.25, Libs 3.75
Van Onselan said today that the Libs had pulled resources out of Dobell
Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn
Tomorrow @TurnbullMalcolm will do his 13th campaign interview. It’s with Alan Jones. It’ll be 5th interview he’s done with Jones.
#ausvotes
Labor has made it very clear. They will govern alone or not at all. No-one should hope for a Labor minority – for something less than a Labor victory – but if the cards fall this way, Labor will not subordinate itself to the demands of other parties. It would be better to sit in Opposition than to serve as the instrument of others – others who would themselves be incapable of Government in their own right. This is not very difficult to work out.
Glen always engaged in debate, he had the liberal viewpoint, but he wasn’t a troll. Similar to Davidwh, who is a Lib supporter, but engages in debate as does Guytaur. It is nice to see an alternate view here, unlike some of the trolls that have been here and especially some of the new Lib trolls posing as greens and doing Krogers work for him.
A reminder, PLEASE DON”T FEED THE TROLLS.
Tom.
Evan Parsons – the Libs pulling resources out of Dobell surely has to rate as a bad sign for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re pouring those resources into Robertson instead.