There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
And right on cue, now that the Coalition have hurriedly modified their stance wrt Medicare, The Financial Revue and The Australian, have trained their cannons on Labor ‘for running a misleading scare campaign about Medicare Privatisation’.
A 5 minutes to midnight change to Coalition policy will not be believed.
‘Fool me once,
Shame on you.
Fool me twice,
Shame on me.’
People won’t be fooled again.
“No Cuts to Health.
No Cuts to Education.
No Cuts to the ABC or SBS.”
This co-ordinated attack by the Coalition of the Liberal Party and the Business media is just too cute by half. People will smell a rat.
Also, Marius Benson has done some digging on the accounting firm who did the ‘research’ which is also splashed across the newspapers today wrt Labor’s Negative Gearing policy.
Take it with a grain of salt. They are a crew of accountants who specialise in tax matters for High Net Worth Individuals and Doctors.
Just another Hockeyesque Liberal stunt. This time choosing not fellow travellers from WA but Queensland.
If I were Labor hardheads I’d be checking their links to the Liberal Party or LNP. I’m sure they wouldn’t have to try too hard. Just scratch the surface.
Well, off to do some more Pre Polling. : )
What does this mean anyway!?!
“I’m saying to all Australians unequivocally, as PM, that no part of Medicare that is delivered by Government today will be delivered in any, by anyone else in the future,” Mr Turnbull said.
“We will modernise it but we will do so within government.”
Public/Private partnerships in Health delivery?
Not selling off functions but outsourcing them to Private Providers?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-malcolm-turnbull-accuses-tony-jones-of-being-a-very-good-spokesman-for-labor-20160620-gpnqep.html
From previous…
fulvio sammut @ #1405 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 1:33 am
Briefly, how well do you think the tin soldier is travelling in Hasluck?
Luke Simpkins/ Cowan….he seemed very uncertain and ill-at-ease to me; spending lots of money on the campaign; looked unconvincing….basic problem is he’s just nowhere near as bright in any sense as Anne.
Ken Wyatt/Hasluck….very nice bloke, Ken…will battle to hold on, I think. The issues that register in Cowan will be even more intensely felt in Hasluck…I doubt he has the campaign skills to fend off Bill Leadbetter…has been spending lots, of course
c@tmomma @ #1 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 6:36 am
Good luck C@t
Good morning all.
Briefly, thanks for that uplifting report from the Christian sponsored town-hall style meeting.
To kick things off this morning – in advance of BK – a typically incisive analysis from Paul Bongiorno:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/20/bill-shorten-medicare/
Morning all. A lot of ads from both sides here in Adelaide since the weekend. The Liberals continue to run their cringe-worthy FakeTradie/RealActor ad. Meanwhile Labor have countered with an almost as bad scare campaign against NXT. It gives up on attacking Xenephon personally, but tries to smear his candidates with vague associations, that are not linked to specific named individuals (to avoid the libel laws?). Both ads are awful, and ineffective.
The Libs appear to be in trouble. They are losing enough votes in enough places to lose enough seats to lose the whole thing.
The event in Cowan last night maybe tells the story. About 50 Liberal-positive, conservative-identifying, self-declaring evangelically-inclined Christians showed up on a cold and wet Monday night to listen to a Muslim Labor candidate and treated her with curiosity, warmth and encouragement. The Lib looked worried. Few votes will have changed hands on the night. But the fact that such a constituency is curious about Labor surely bodes very badly for the Liberals.
We have been going hard in Eden-Monaro with the Gonski campaign so this may be bearing fruit.
Well it appears Liberal HQ and their Murdoch running dogs have dropped the dumb down ‘it’s all so boring’ campaign to crank up the fear and smear.
Today’s Daily TurdBurgler is groaning under the weight of the fecal spread. Starting with the headline “Economy Killers want Carbon Tax Return” we have this photoshop of Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshotte
:large
Windsor seems to be prime target, with an EXCLUSIVE of his workers ‘caught red handed’ handing out ALP HTVs.
There is another invented fabrication where Labor is going to strip $20,000 from each and every property investors.
And to round things out, Rat Latham, pockets full of grubby Murdoch sheckels, writes that ‘We are only now realising that Bill Shorten has a low opinion of the Australian people’.
For William, a few electorate polls in the Turd today
Barker SA. The poll of 869 Barker residents showed that of people who would not give their first preference to the Liberals or the Xenophon party, a whopping 84.5 per cent would preference the Xenophon candidate above the Liberals.
The Reachtel poll shows that on a two-party preferred basis, Xenophon candidate James Stacey leads Liberal MP Tony Pasin 52-48.
Also a Galaxy
The Barker Reachtel commissioned by CMFEU
The Galaxy referred to is some further Lindsay comment, saying NXT is polling 7% there with no other detail.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
It would appear that the load on NSW A and E services may have been severely underestimated.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/nsw-budget-2016-health-system-burden-may-be-underestimated-says-ama-nsw-20160620-gpnck6.html
Woolworths take on something else – again!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/woolworths-takes-on-convenience-stores-20160620-gpn2ca.html
Phil Coorey and the use of scare campaigns and how the Coalition has set the gold standard. Google.
/news/politics/election-2016–scare-campaign-physician-heal-thyself-20160620-gpmzw2
A rather underwhelming QandA effort fro Turnbull last night.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-malcolm-turnbull-accuses-tony-jones-of-being-a-very-good-spokesman-for-labor-20160620-gpnqep.html
Stephen Koukoulas writes that the Coalition is merely treading water when it comes to joblessness.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/the-governments-approach-to-joblessness-is-merely-treading-water
And Greg Jericho looks at the illusions of the job statistics.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jun/20/unemployment-figures-suit-turnbull-but-not-those-seeking-full-time-work
Bighead Eddie McGuire might have done it this time!
http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/eddie-mcguire-and-caroline-wilson-collingwood-major-sponsor-holden-hugely-unhappy-20160620-gpnoqv.html
Here’s nine questions Stephen Koukoulas hoped would be asked at QandA. They didn’t, and I doubt if our toadying press pack won’t ask them either.
http://thekouk.com/blog/9-questions-for-mr-turnbull-who-s-on-q-a-tonight.html
It’s lie accusations at 10 paces on Medicare. It all comes down to believability methinks.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-bill-shorten-ramps-up-medicare-attack–no-one-believes-you-malcolm-20160620-gpn33l.html
The latest contribution from Urban Wronski.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/06/20/playing-politics-with-our-very-survival/
Michelle Grattan on how the Liberals are shielding Sussan Ley from debate about health.
https://theconversation.com/liberals-shielding-minister-sussan-ley-from-debate-about-health-61309
Section 2 . . .
Retired diplomat Bruce Haigh writes about Trump and our American dependency. It’s a cracker!
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-american-dependency,9132
Trump is a dangerous idiot! He goes to far for even the NRA.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/20/even-the-nra-doesnt-like-trumps-call-for-guns-in-nightclubs/
How the Coalition is using clean energy financing as an election slush fund.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/20/how-the-coalition-is-using-clean-energy-financing-as-an-election-slush-fund-australia
The virulent anti-immigration sentiment in the US and UK pose a warning for Australia says Peter Hartcher.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/virulent-us-and-uk-antiimmigrant-sentiment-a-warning-for-australia-20160620-gpnmqs.html
Michael Pascoe examines the systematic rorting that is going on in the aged care industry.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/aged-care-clients-staff-set-to-pay-for-government-crackdown-20160619-gpmx7a.html
“View from the Street”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-election-2016–dude-looks-like-a-tradie-20160620-gpnge7.html
William Bowe
The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather flimsy sample of 364….. The poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis.”.
————-
I don’t see how Ellis could lose this seat. Last election the PV 42 % Labor, 42 % Liberal and 10% Green. Unless the Greens have all packed up and left since 2013 this ‘poll’ in the Murdoch rag is nothing more than a Liberal fantasy drummed up offset bad news in the seat next door, Hindmarsh. But what about Xenephon ? A. He won’t topple either majors on PV and B. NXT has not been shown to damage the Green PV in any of the polls we have seen in SA to date, and C. Ellis is a high profile shadow Minister who hasn’t put a foot wrong.
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
David Pope on the low primary votes for the major parties.
Alan Moir thinks political parties are going a bit too far with data mining.
A scary one from Ron Tandberg.
I put this up yesterday but some of you may have missed this one from mark David.
David Rowe and Turnbull’s latest manoeuvres.
Mark Knight with a not so subtle dig at Eddie McGuire.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4fa9b83fe001bb954f7ad266d9e3b939?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Jon Kudelka and responses to the Orland massacre.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4e5922f598819920f32b76f8d7178fd7
The SmearStralian is full on campaign mode for the Liberal Party. Only recommended to those who like hysteria.
And who surfaces? An opinion piece by Tony Abbott. He says the party has moved on, but he would still like a ministerial role.
tpof @ #5 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 6:42 am
Cheers TOPF. I love meeting voters. They are endlessly surprising.
rogue scholar @ #14 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:09 am
Sample = 364….95% confidence level that this will be completely wrong!!!
18-24 year olds will largely have come into voting age when the Greens were led by Christine Milne. It doesn’t seem that far-fetched that the Greens would do better with my own generation of 35-50 year olds, who associate the Greens with Bob Brown, and the older of us remember the fight to save the Franklin, possibly the largest single concrete achievement of the party. How old do you think the Greens’ famed demographic of “doctors’ spouses” (as di Natale is careful to say) is?
sprocket_ @ #10 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:02 am
This suggests the Liberals could lose Mayo, Barker and Grey to NXT.
Abbott and Hockey paraded their determination to close down the auto industry. What else should the SA Liberals expect? They are absolute fools.
olivierk @ #19 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:21 am
Job opportunities in SA for young people will be difficult. Why on earth would first-time entrants to the workforce be interested in the Gs?
What a brilliant piece of work the Medicare attack is for Labor. The more the Coalition squeal about scare campaigns and the more they assert they never, ever will ‘privatise’ Medicare, the more they are conceding that their credibility on the issue is absolutely shot.
And remind people about how bad their credibility is on a whole range of other things – like education.
briefly
The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat ….
Sample = 364….95% confidence level that this will be completely wrong!!!
—
G’day Briefly ; You are dead right. What a load of Bollocks !
tpof @ #22 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:30 am
The subtext for the Liberals is horrendous for them. It says “Yeah, we know we lied. We know that you know that we know we lied. We know you think we will always lie. We promise we are not lying now. In making this promise, we know you won’t believe us because you know that we lie. But we have to promise…err..that is…we have to lie to you again anyway. That’s because we cannot tell you the truth, which is that we always lie.”
They have admitted they are liars….and then implored voters to “Please believe me…”
Right at the very pointy end of the campaign the Liberals have declared themselves to be liars and then tried to blame Labor. No wonder voters think they are total charlatans.
It’s quite simple really. The Coalition has recent form when it comes to lying and breaking promises.
bk @ #25 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:41 am
BK, the really incredible thing is not that they lied but that they thought voters would never notice.
It does look very promising in Mayo -:)
Turnbot will regret declaring at the outset that the election was about “trust”. It sure is now.
Briefly
Extremely promising!
Briefly
If Briggs gets rolled it will be the first time in my life that my federal representative would not be a Liberal!
bk @ #29 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:50 am
And we will rejoice with you, BK. Great will be the jubilation!!!
It seems that Malcolm has an URTI. I do wish journos would stop calling it ‘the flu’.
Although I’ve live in Labor electorates (Grayndler, mainly), I’m now in Cowper which is rusted-on National, but possibly for only another two weeks. It would be great to see the back of our useless prick of an MP.
OlivierK
Yes It would be a sorry day for Cowper to see the loss of the esteemed Pruneface.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-reef-bleaching-serious-threat-to-tourism-jobs-os-poll-20160620-gpnh69.html
lizzie @ #31 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:59 am
Could be the same URTI I had a few weeks ago. It’s a rotter. If so, he will be unable to concentrate, be very lethargic, experience poor sleep and on/off fever, difficulty breathing, probably feeling dejected too.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/central-highlands-carbon-storage-worth-more-than-logging-20160620-gpn5ay.html
Briefly: “Job opportunities in SA for young people will be difficult. Why on earth would first-time entrants to the workforce be interested in the Gs?”
As much as that, older voters were forming political habits when the Greens offered Bob Brown, and Labor offered Crean, Beazley and Latham. Younger voters were offered Milne and di Natale on the one side and Rudd (who for all his faults got rockstar treatment for knocking off Howard), and Gillard, our first female PM.
I don’t know what it’s like on the ground in SA, but Labor here still struggles with young, idealistic voters being turned off by the stench of the Obied/Iemma/Tripodi years (as well as by similar on the Libs side) which is a booster for the Greens with young voters, but specific to NSW.
I reckon Labor will win. The Liberals will play it out, for sure. They have no choice. But Labor will break ahead in the remaining days. The electorate will not vote for admitted liars. They cannot.
I’m from near Bellingen, which is easy to spot in booth maps of Cowper as centre of the small red dot in a sea of green (actually a Greens stronghold, but Labor on 2PP). If Hartsuyker goes, I wouldn’t rule out dancing in the streets, which Belloites are quite partial to in any case.
After giving Mal a good go on the ABC news, AM had highlights (?) from Q&A, followed by a non story on a redundancy from Shorten’s office (he’s a hypocrite you know), followed by Brandis.
The ABC must be really worried.
The “sea of green” being Nats booths, to be clear.
olivierk @ #37 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 8:10 am
I’m in WA…but agree with you on this. “Affiliation” is very important in determining behaviour.
Lizzie: The term of art is ILI – influenza-like illness. The term Upper Respiratory Tract Infections is broader, encompassing bacterial infections as well as the interferon-mediated viral infections like influenza. Influenza A & B make up about 20-30% of identified causes of ILI in most winter seasons, with spikes of up to 40-50% during seasonal epidemics. The rest are a ragbag of adenovirus, rhinovirus, coronavirus and alphaviruses when we ever get around to surveying the cause – which is seldom, because there is almost nothing we can do to prevent or modify established ILI.
olivierk @ #39 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 8:13 am
Let’s hope Oakeshott can do it. He has timed his run late..but voters do want to choose “other” voices. He is the model example of the “other” candidate.
Briefly
If Mal is as bad as you describe, he really should have taken some time off. ‘Soldiering on’ can lead to longer recuperation periods.
I’m feeling a lot more upbeat today than I have for some time.
It’s not polls – it’s a renewed feeling of confidence that the Labor campaign brains trust are very smart, know exactly what they are doing and have planned their timing exquisitely.
It’s going to be harder than I first thought but Labor – in its campaign managers and in its leadership – is showing outstanding professionalism.
lizzie @ #45 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 8:18 am
I hope and expect that he will have as long as he likes or needs from 3 July onwards.
Rhwombat
Would a flu injection have helped Mal?
Lizzie
Please keep up the good work of demanding answers regarding Mal’s illness. I smell a cover-up!
I liked this from Kevin Bonham’s latest instalment:
” It should be kept in mind that Bludger Track was stunningly accurate in its 2013 final seat projections.”
In Bowe we Trust.