There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
Moksha
😆 😆
Where’s Darc?
That poll about Kate Ellis has come out of nowhere. Will shut down my emails if Colo gets up!
A worthy challenge to people who think we are at full employment:
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=33860
Morning all
Jon Faine ABC774 is doing broadcast this morning in Wangaratta to cover the seat of Indi
Watched Q&A last night, feeling a bit crook, so I wasn’t in a great mood.
I thought Turnbull did OK, and that was a downer on a downer. Lots of shots of the audience, featuring pretty 20-30-something women listening intently. Turnbull, struggling against a cold resorted to blaming his cabinet, Labor, independent reports…. anything but himself… but I thought he pulled it off more or less effectively.
But listening to the radio – 2GB – this morning, it was wall to wall anti-Muslim stuff related to the ramadan dinner the other night (apparently Janet Albrechtsen has written a column today, and Alan Jones had her on to whinge about Muslim fundamentalists and their homophobia). Then they were on about the “scare” campaign on Medicare. Jones pointed out that the Liberals’ scare campaigns on a Greens Coalition, neg gearing, the “war” on business, unions and even Bill Shorten himself were OK because they were “true”, but Labor’s on Health was a farrago of lies.
Over at ABC-24 Breakfast, some female twit from the IPA was on doing her thing, reporting the papers for this morning. Once again the scare campaign was topic du jour. She was vehement about it. Wouldn’t take “no” for an answer on Lib scare campaigns: Labor’s was a lie and the Liberals’ were just playing grown-up politics with their own fear tactics.
The inevitable conclusion was that feeling a bit crook made me more emotionally flat than I should have been, and hence less optimistic, and that the Liberals are terrified by the Health scare campaign. Underneath it all is another campaign being waged by the Right against Turnbull. Jones called for a “war” on Muslims, and asked “Who will take up arms?” (after saying he didn’t mean an actual shooting war, although we’ve got that too).
I am really starting to think that the Libs believed their own publicity about the campaign “being over” by this stage, with only the preparations for the victory lap left to complete by July 2. When you think about it, it’s classic projection. They were putting out that Labor was tired, when it was THEY who were and are tired. Hence the call from their tame media monitors to stop thinking about the issues, because there wouldn’t be anything new forthcoming. Just relax and lock in your vote, punters.
The Coalition were not expecting Labor’s Big Push. They have been sucker-punched by it, king-hit. They didn’t see it coming and they’re panicking, big time.
Thinking back, the audience last night were sullen and cranky. The ABC had their chance (along with the Libs) to stack the audience with Lib supporters, but all we heard was polite applause. The only cheering was in favour of abandoning the plebiscite and just getting on with it.
Turnbull couldn’t monster an entire audience on National TV. He reserves his bullying for behind closed doors when he has weaker people than himself to stand over. So he monstered Tony Jones, accusing him of being a Labor tout. It didn’t look good at all, and it didn’t go down well with the audience, mostly because it was so smarmy. You could see Turnbull holding it in, trying desperately to admit that he hasn’t had to do a deal with the devil on his Right to grab at and maintain office.
Reading some of the analysis has cheered me up. Hearing the conservatives’ inner fears and loathings this morning on radio and TV has added to my cheerfulness. The field is Labor’s, at least for a week, until the Libs get their act together (#faketradie doesn’t count), by which time I expect Labor will have some other fish to fry.
The smartarsed bastards didn’t see it coming. And I think there’s more to come.
Mirabella now talking with Faine. She is being ever so sweet. That was enough for me!!
I wonder if #MediScare will trend?
I’ve not so far commented on “ABC bias”.
But I think I noticed something very strange at the end of Qanda.
I’m pretty sure that the last 3 or 5 or more tweets just as Jones was closing it up were all very quick, very short (about half a dozen words only), and all saying WTTE “Mal is magnificent.”
Perhaps someone can confirm this. Thanks.
If my impression is correct, it does beg the question as to the objectivity of those who select and display the tweets.
Psyclaw
Tweet from Bongiorno
Paul Bongiorno
11h11 hours ago
Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
The disappearance of the tweets on Q&A No great loss just a bit suss though.
Sydney people say the darndest things.
Person A: So
is overseas for the next month in
.
Person B: Aww, she’ll miss the election.
Person A: Yeah, that means she doesn’t have to vote.
Person B: I thought you got a fine?
Person A: Nah, you just tell ’em you were overseas and you don’t.
Person B: oh, ok.
lizzie@#48
Unlikely. As I indicated above, Influenza A or B usually makes up less than 20% of ILI in a non-epidemic year (like 2016 so far seems to be), so Mal’s malady is more likely to be one of the other upper respiratory viruses, for which the current ‘flu vaccine is useless as a preventive or therapeutic treatment.
The only proven treatments for preventing infection with influenzavirus are oseltamivir or zanamivir taken before exposure (which are specific for ‘flu) and inhaled interferon prophylaxis – which can also prevent the other viruses which cause ILI, but cause exactly the same symptoms as having the ILI.
Influenza vaccine is highly specific for the influenza A & B strains anticipated to cause the next pandemic. It’s a population tool, which may prevent a large number of trivial (ie non-life threatening but irritating and potentially mildly debilitating) illnesses and a very small number of life-threatening complications. I usually wouldn’t bother with ‘flu vaccine on a risk-benefit basis, except that it would upset my colleagues in public health too much.
Rhwombat
Thanks for that detail.
Perhaps pollies should just stop kissing babies. I have a few grandmothers amongst my friends who are frequently laid low by colds caught from their grandchildren.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/20/how-the-coalition-is-using-clean-energy-financing-as-an-election-slush-fund-australia?CMP=share_btn_tw
I said probably as long ago as 2014 when their budget crashed and burnt that this rabble looks like a 4th or 5th term government that had long since run out of ideas, was going through the motions, and had no reason for existence beyond ‘just because’.
Anyone think there is anything wrong with that analysis?
BB
Georgina Downer. Usually when the newspapers get done at least 6 or so articles are briefly talked about. She managed to do ‘Labor Lies’ on Medicare (on and on) then when on about being in favour of Brexit and guess what? She’d just written a paper on it for the IPA …
Trioli and Rowland didn’t look impressed and cut to the Sports guy.
lizzie: It’s not the kissing, it’s the hand-licking we all do that spreads ILI viruses. Most masks work more by stopping us from touching our lips and noses than by filtering droplets from the air.
Here is video of Shorten’s presser in WA yesterday. He did very well on the medicare issue. And he did reiterate in this presser, that you have seen nothing yet!!
https://www.laborherald.com.au/health/labor-tops-the-health-scorecard/
Re Qanda, I thought Turnbull did the best he could considering the constraints of his policy void and interminable waffling. Coalition supporters might have cheered but I doubt a single undecided voter was swayed in his favour. Bill was far more effective.
I can’t recall a single occasion where the Leader of the Opposition has been outperformed by the PM during this campaign. Generally, Shorten’s performance has been streets ahead.
Rhwombat
You just gave me a vision of people licking each other’s hands in greeting. 😆
But I do take your point.
Ah Georgina. Those Libs and their daughter’s winning scholarships 🙂
https://www.crikey.com.au/2005/08/09/alexander-downer-his-daughter-a-prestige-scholarship-and-the-pms-code-of-conduct/
Yesterday evening’s Lateline segment re Medicare and the Labor ad to be released today. I have been looking out for it, but have not seen anything yet
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2016/s4485626.htm
I don’t understand.
We didn’t compensate Kodak when digital cameras came along.
We didn’t compensate Blockbuster when Netflix came along.
Why are we propping up a dead industry now?
I get the concept of ‘too big to fail’ and believe that, when a company is facing a temporary problem, the government should step in and buy equity in the company to prop it up if no private company will. But that is not what is happening here. This is an industry that can never recover, it is finished. And the government isn’t getting anything out of this deal.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-21/productive-talks-on-bill-to-regulate-uber-in-victoria/7528248
Point well made………
Peter van Onselen
4h4 hours ago
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
What’s so ridiculous about ALP’s false attack re privatising Medicare is it’s unnecessary: Libs doing enough in health that can be attacked
AshGhebranious
AshGhebranious – @AshGhebranious
@vanOnselenP What is the difference between this tactic and claiming the removal of negative gearing will result in a recession?
3:55 PM – 20 Jun 2016
4 RETWEETS1 LIKE
“It will need the Government to put the money in where its looking at compensation for the taxi industry” was the line in the linked article I was refering to.
Maybe none. Isn’t it beautiful?
If the Liberals want to turn the last two weeks into a “he said/she said” argument over Medicare it will play straight into Labor’s hands. They would like nothing better than to talk wall to wall Medicare for the next 12 or so days.
The Liberals are totally vulnerable on this subject in a number of ways, as Penny Wong illustrated in her ‘debate’ with Pyne on 7.30 last night. When confronted with the alleged lie she simply talked about the the six year Medicare freeze and the 2014 co-payment etc and the extra costs that will impose on people.
This is one argument the Liberals and their cohorts cannot win and they know it.
Based on the Murdoch Press (and the AFR) the Libs are in full on panic mode. They’ll need buckets to bail out their pants pretty soon.
morning all.
Some great posts by Briefly over night and BB earlier this morning.
Re. Briefly’s report from Cowan, one additional thing that was interesting is that when asked the voters didn’t say the Government would win.
Also BB’s interpretation that around a week ago the government felt they had the election in the bags and full on campaigning might as well stop now.
Re. Latham’s column in the DT
I am gobsmacked. Uhlmann doing a dry assessment of policies on both sides and giving ALP the more favorable report card
To my admitted surprise Tony and the Monkey Pod have been extremely well behaved since the campaign proper started.
But if it looks like it’s all turning to shit for Malcolm will we see an attempt to provide the coup de grace in the last week?
Perhaps not. Maybe the plan is to let him burn without any help so they can legitimately say ‘we behaved, it was you traitorous bastard moderates that stuffed everything’.
But then that would rely on them thinking with their brains rather than their gall bladders so probably a long shot.
Ratsak
Win lose or draw, Turnbull is in for the boot after election.
Biding their time Ratsak, biding their time.
Psyclaw
Yes I saw about 3 tweets in a row pop up at the end saying “Mal at his best” etc. not referencing anything specific at all. If that waffle and hesitancy was his best then he is finished.
I thought he did about as well as he could selling a shit sandwich but there was very little applause, and the few times Jones asked the audience member if their question was answered they all said no.
Did anybody count how many times Jones interrupted compared to Shorten last week? I noticed several times he was just sitting there looking disinterested while Turnbull crapped on and wandered off topic which is the only time that he should interrupt.
Scott Bales,
Re taxi compensation.
I think govts are looking at compensation for the taxi industry because until recently they have been selling taxi plates to people who made the investment in an industry without competition from Uber and now that Uber has been given the go ahead even though Uber has been flagrantly breaking existing laws here in WA to operate the value of those very expensive taxi plates has dropped.
I am not a legal expert
ratsak @ #80 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:42 am
……………………………………………………………………….
Turnbull is doing what abbott wants – being his own worst enemy.
Same as abbott was his own.
But the libs may turn to abbott as LOTO if they lose – stranger things have happened.
RATSAK – The only governmental thing that this mob did was gets sworn in and shake hands with the GG. Apart from that, they’ve been in opposition the whole time.
Colton
You are close to the mark on the taxi licenses situation
jenauthor @ #79 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:41 am
I am becoming more and more a believer in the theories of multiverses. I this the same Uhlmann who told us that the election was essentially over last week?
ABC Fact Check finds Jason Clare’s comment on the slip in internet speed rankings is correct.
As an aside it is useless to keep talking about maximum and average speeds. rather we should be talking about the minimum speed one can rely upon getting.
That would sort the wheat from the chaff – not to mention the copper from the fibre!
SCOTT – I assume the plan is to compensate those who bought plates most recently (though far from 100 cents in the dollar) but not those who’ve been milking the system for years. But I agree, there is no reason to bail these people out.
P.S. Someone once told me the original idea behind taxi plates was to give owner-drivers a nest-egg to retire. The system has moved a long way from that.
Sorry. Posted too early.
like I say I am no expert but I think the govt could be up for compensation by taxi plate owners because the rules of the industry have been drastically changed so perhaps they are trying to negotiate a fair outcome for these taxi plate owners now the value of the plate they recently bought from the govt. is worth a lot less.
“no part of Medicare that is delivered by Government today will be delivered in any, by anyone else in the future,” Mr Turnbull said.”
That sounds to me like a perfect “get of jail” card for a PM who actually plans on cutting aspects of Medicare.
On taxis, the state governments created the problem by limiting licences and auctioning them off. That created a monopoly for the licence owners and made buying a licence ridiculously expensive. That obviously is going to lead to higher prices.
So having created the problem it is only right that the state governments do something to alleviate it. If you could have simply bought a taxi licence at a reasonable price the same as if you wanted to operate a truck or delivery van then there wouldn’t have been the issue in the first place and much less opportunity for the likes of Uber to come in and disrupt.
Passenger safety concerns etc are legitimate, but creating a monopoly and using it as a cash cow by state governments was never a legitimate vehicle for addressing that.
Burgey
Its ALP internal polling which they leaked to the Tiser to stop voters dallying with X. I doubt Ellis will lose but remember the swing against Lomax=Smith in the state seat of Adelaide?
K17,
tbf until the 2014 Budget incinerated they at least had something resembling a raison d’etre. Sure it was ideological insanity and mostly was expressed through tearing down as much of the social contract as they could in the shortest possible time, but it was at least something. (even if a complete 180 degree on what they’d promised pre election)
I this the same Uhlmann who told us that the election was essentially over last week?
As BB says the media have the blessing of living in the eternal present. Nothing they say today (or indeed this minute) need have any congruence with anything they said previously or will say in the future.
RATSAK – But the State Government never said it would not change the legislation. Surely, the plate purchasers too on the risk of that.
Funny that you’re all saying that Mal’s criticism of Jones didn’t go down well with the audience on Q&A, but the audio on AM had applause from the audience after his comments.
Adrian
Audience split?
You cannot sue the government simply for making your life worse than under previous government policies.