Electorate polling round-up

Scattered reports of internal polling provide encouragement for Labor in New South Wales, but find them struggling in a number of other places.

There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.

The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.

The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.

• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.

• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.

• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.

• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.

• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.

2016-06-21-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

957 comments on “Electorate polling round-up”

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  1. “Labor true to itself. ”

    Biggest lols every. Oh my.

    A party called labor won’t even protect penalty rates. You people are deluded. Seriuosly f#%&kn deluded.

  2. Poss

    Don’t know how you get the ‘Coles and Woolies’ thing from that article.

    The woman is disappointed with Labor. She’s voting Green. She doesn’t seem to consider Labor and Liberal to be the same, she just doesn’t want to vote Labor.

  3. Even ‘No Cred’ says in so many words that Malcolm is a lazy bastard.
    Credlin says Turnbull looks ‘patrician’

    AAP
    9:56PM June 21, 2016
    Save
    Print

    Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff has warned Malcolm Turnbull needs to lift his game in the election campaign.

    Peta Credlin says the prime minister needs to put in more effort.

    She says the 12 or 13 interviews he has done during six weeks of campaigning are not credible.

    “Punters want to see you fight to the wire,” Ms Credlin told Sky News on Tuesday.

    “He looks a bit patrician, that he’s standing back – everybody else can campaign and I just expect you to vote for me.”

  4. SA doesn’t want money thrown at it. SA wants capital invested into it, so it can create jobs and its own prosperity, to return back into the Commonwealth at a later date.

    And the thing is we have a very old state Labor Government that, although it is honestly trying, is out of ideas of how to fix this and, unlike in the past, the answer is not a sharp turn to the Liberals – the state branch are a bunch of ineffective, opportunistic wimps who have absolutely no solutions and assume they are somehow going to wave a magic wand to fix everything and the federal branch completely insulted the state by taking the attitude of “fix yourselves! You’re on your own!”

    So, when you have a viable political force that represents a third option and a perceived genuine passion to do something good and different, it’s completely understandable that they might get a following.

    And stupid, condescending and dismissive remarks about shit in the water or SA demanding the federal capital be moved to Adelaide (literally nobody here is asking for that) is not going to change that course.

  5. I really like the seriously out of touch stuff, it is the cherry on the campaign that started with the Cayman’s stuff, I know many here didn’t think Labor should do the Cayman’s stuff, but without starting there this seriously out of touch wouldn’t resonate. As it is it is a fine body of work, of course the biggest contribution has come from Mal himself, showing how out of touch he is …

  6. CUPID – Yup, everyone’s decided that the Libs Luuurrvvv medicare.
    I’m pretty amazed at Victoria’s revelation that the CMFEU ad has 2.5 million views. If that’s true, the Libs are cooked geese.

  7. [WWP
    True.
    don’s analogy is actually a good one. If we give more to disadvantaged individuals, communities, regions, suburbs, schools, ethnic groups etc etc, I can’t see why Australia shouldn’t reach into its pocket more for SA and Tassie]
    If you are doing something nationwide based on identified need of course Australia should reach into its pocket.
    If X is doing Harradine style politics he deserves absolutely nothing, and I hope for every bribe he extracts SA pays a massively heavy price.

  8. I heard there has been no construction work done on building sites for a couple of days. They are trying to find out what the workers have been doing.

  9. Labor’s leaving it with the FWC. With lovely people in charge like Michael Lawler, of Cathy Jackson fame. Yes that mate of Peter Reith and David Feeney. And how does Shorten fit in? Some say quite snuggly….

  10. wewantpaul @ #816 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:07 pm

    WWP
    True.
    don’s analogy is actually a good one. If we give more to disadvantaged individuals, communities, regions, suburbs, schools, ethnic groups etc etc, I can’t see why Australia shouldn’t reach into its pocket more for SA and Tassie

    If you are doing something nationwide based on identified need of course Australia should reach into its pocket.
    If X is doing Harradine style politics he deserves absolutely nothing, and I hope for every bribe he extracts SA pays a massively heavy price.

    Somebody has to stand up for SA. Nobody else was prepared to step up to the plate, but X is doing it, good on him. May his tribe increase.

    I was born in Qld, have lived most of my life in NSW, but I am an Australian. SA and Tassie need our help, they should get it.

  11. Have there been any academic studies explaining the different levels of electoral volatility and political party loyalty in Canada and Australia? Here is a link to the Canadian Parliament’s website of electoral results: http://www.lop.parl.gc.ca/ParlInfo/compilations/electionsandridings/ResultsParty.aspx
    Have a look at what happened between 2011 and 2015. There have been similar huge Canadian turnarounds in both directions before.
    Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could get a 2011-2015 Canadian-level tsunami of votes towards the ALP this time around? This would get rid of the sort of people that “intelligent design” bypassed, people like Peter Dutton, Christopher Pyne, Jamie Briggs and all sorts of other spivs and drongos.
    I’d love to read a headline on about July 7 reading: “Jobs and growth: Big growth in former LNP MPs looking for jobs”.
    All of this is probably just whimsical fantasising.
    But I’ll take the opportunity to wish all of you well who are working towards getting rid of a government imbued by an Abbott/Murdoch/IPA/TPP/Turnbull/Gina Rinehart world view choreographed by the fifth rate twerps / slime in the IPA. The IPA: Our own little version of the Koch Brothers in the US. And the people anonymously funding the IPA make their donations tax-free. It is a disgrace along with much else to do with how the LNP slither about in the dusky areas of the tax legislation.
    Cheers and good luck to you all in getting rid of the LNP.
    Paul Hodgson

  12. Lee Wool – and in this hypothetical scenario where the Greens win a majority and can legislate to “protect” penalty rates through legislation, what happens when the conservatives inevitably regain government and legislate to abolish penalty rates completely?

    The above scenario is exactly why Labor champions independent arbitration. Wages and working conditions are too important to be used as a political football, and the Greens should know better.

  13. Having worked in DHS who administer Medicare there was an approval this year to spend about $1 billion to rewrite their computer systems. It was going to be put out to competitive tenders and not done in house. I think this is what a lot of the talk is about as this could be construed by some as privatisation even though it is only back office. ATO did the same thing for a slightly higher price 8 years ago.

  14. Honestly people think rationally

    If as is highly possible we have a hung parliament, of course Labor will go cap in hand to ALL the cross benchers. For sure the Greens have less bargaining power than say NXT.because Green members and voters will expect, indeed demand that they support Labor. However there will be influence because most legislation will require support of all or most of the cross benches.

    Now if the situation arose where occupying Government benches depended on Greens, then their would be a coalition of a kind, but NOT formal. Shorten would NOT go back to the people for another election. Labor coffers are dry friends and there is no way theat they would risk another election.

    So let us get realistic. It seems at the moment that a hung parliament is likely. All the cross benchers will be influential.

    It seems highly likely that there will be 10-12 cross benchers
    – 2 Nationals from WA
    – Katter, McGowan and Wilkie
    – 2-3 Greens
    -2-3 NXT
    -Windsor and Oakshott.

    Now unlikely though it may be I can also recognise potential for additional cross benchers – Calare and Wide Bay I see as risky for the Nats. Possibly some North Qld seats too. NXT could get more seats (say 5) and the Greens 4. That is 19 cross benchers

  15. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/21/scare-campaign-the-major-parties-ramp-up-some-frightening-hyperbole

    ​Prepare for the scare. The final days of a tight election campaign are getting fast and loose, as all sides of politics forget that blanket accusations of untrustworthiness and lying reflect badly on all of them and wild hyperbole overtakes common sense. Here’s a quick guide to the competing scares, and why they really aren’t very frightening.

  16. lee wool @ #818 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Labor’s leaving it with the FWC. With lovely people in charge like Michael Lawler, of Cathy Jackson fame.

    Lawler quit the FWC back in March.

    Michael Lawler: Kathy Jackson’s partner quits as vice-president of Fair Work Commission

    Fair Work Commission (FWC) vice-president Michael Lawler has resigned, ending a protracted legal stand-off.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-03/michael-lawler-quits-fair-work-commission/7217860

  17. I think that the real tradie add will win votes, not only from Trades people but all workers.
    About my other posts lets stamp out bullying.

  18. WTF a double showing of the fake tradie ad back to back. The bad dubbing really gets to me, plus the “stick with the current mob” line.

  19. re: the leave campaign – I’d reckon the polled votes may understate intention to vote leave due to the Cox murder (people a bit ashamed to admit they plan to vote leave, but when they vote they will actually vote to leave). I wonder if the lib polled vote is also understated (people a bit ashamed to be voting for them, but when they go to vote will do so). the polls often understate the tory vote and overstate the green vote – I wonder if this shame (and conversely false answer for the greens to appear ‘better’) is a contributor?

  20. Carey:

    Similar comments have been made about WA. Whatever.

    If SenX wants to run on an SA platform, good on him. But that alone doesn’t mean I’m going to vote for his party, and because I refuse to do so doesn’t make me some kind of anti SA reactionary. I’m not, it’s just the SenX party represents nothing I want to vote for in WA, whereas other parties do. Please don’t take this as an affront to SA.

  21. Wages and working conditions are too important to be used as a political football,

    True.

    and the Greens should know better.

    LoL!

    Give the woolly one a break. Its seems to be going through its time as an ineffectual purist and will likely grow out of it.

  22. jimmydoyle @ #828 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    Lee Wool – and in this hypothetical scenario where the Greens win a majority and can legislate to “protect” penalty rates through legislation, what happens when the conservatives inevitably regain government and legislate to abolish penalty rates completely?
    The above scenario is exactly why Labor champions independent arbitration. Wages and working conditions are too important to be used as a political football, and the Greens should know better.

    I’m really convinced that this person is a Lib troll and not a Green.

  23. I have applied to tha ALP site to volunteer and noone gets back to me in 2 days. As I am in Robertson which they must win to have any chance of getting their bums on the Treasury benches they must either have too many volunteers already or not enough to get back to those who want to help.

  24. Mark Di Stefano
    11h11 hours ago
    Mark Di Stefano ‏@MarkDiStef
    Malcolm Turnbull has said “jobs and growth” once in 48 hours. He’s said “Medicare” at least 25 times

  25. Boer war at https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/21/electorate-polling-round/comment-page-12/#comment-2423373

    Goodness gracious, BW! Do they? I’m afraid I don’t read the Australian, but I thought they had recently been mostly on a “Turnbull’s going to win” theme.

    As for any Labor/ Green theme that they may come up with, isn’t that just the same old, lame old nonsense they have always spouted in their epistles to the converted? I wouldn’t let it worry you. Good that even they recognise the commonality of interests, even if it is because they hate both parties equally, eh!

  26. Apparently Labor hasn’t supported independent Industrial Arbitration since like forever. I’m sure it’s news to Labor people that it was Scullin and not Bruce who tried to dismantle the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration in 29. (oh no actually is was Stanley Melbourne).

    I’m sure Labor people would also be pleased to find out that their memory of Labor strenuously opposing Howard’s Workchoices power to remove wage setting power from the AIRC and setting up the euphemistically named Fair Pay Commission are just a delusion. (oh no actually Labor did oppose that)

    Labor people would also be scratching their heads to find out it was Abbott who set up Fair Work Commission to put in place a more independent and transparent umpire than the opaque Fair Pay Commission. (oh that’s right it was Rudd and Gillard as his IR minister)

    Nice to have some green numbnutz around to inform Labor people that continuing support of independent arbitration of wages of conditions is no longer being true to ourselves

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