There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
Surely the prospect of having to knife another leader eventually weighs on your mind
After the first three it all just becomes a bit routine.
SK @ 8.57
Yes. Even us tragics do have people around us that demand we take time out to do things for them!
lee wool @ #697 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 8:56 pm
Franklin D. Roosevelt?
Poroti:
The pokies thing here is a state issue, therefore what’s the point of voting for SenX at a federal level?
If SenX wants to run candidates in the forthcoming state election however, that’s another matter.
Go read the greens policies on their website. It pretty thorough stuff. Probably more actual policy and intent than in any lameass liblab brochure. Liblab is more of the same broken system with different trivial tinkering by lib and lab.
BW
Completely agree. He’s getting plenty of votes in SA by saying he will use his leverage to get more $$$ for SA as we are a mendicant state. You’d be nuts to vote for him from any other state, but there are good reasons to vote for him if you want SA to get exrta hand-outs.
Confessions – if you don’t preference a range of groups then you are saying that you don’t care which of them wins a last Senate seat if that occurs. If you don’t preference NXT, Libs and CDP then you are saying that you don’t mind if CDP for example gets the last seat ahead of Libs or NXT. For someone wanting to support Secular Party that is an odd outcome.
victoria @ #692 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 8:54 pm
Not to mention getting a run on 7.30.
It’s a good thing that most uncommitted voters would rather watch the Project than watch the ABC.
What is this, primary school?
The Australian has an overwhelmingly right of centre audience. Their readers could be persuaded to vote Labor, but they have a conservative bent. So The Australian talks up the prospects of a Greens / Labor deal in order to try and scare their readers off any prospect of voting Labor, because the Greens’ leftist policies are anathema to them.
The Greens speak to an overwhelmingly left of centre audience. A large portion of their target demographic likes Labor on the whole, but is upset because Labor drags its feet when it comes to implementing progressive policy, being encumbered with a right wing full of nutters like yourself, briefly and bemused. So the Greens talk up the prospect of a Greens / Labor deal in order to try and persuade their target demographic into voting them under the possibility that the Greens could guarantee Labor a majority for their legislation in exchanged for having a number of important core Greens progressive policies passed.
Pretty obvious.
Go read the greens policies on their website.
I could just as easily read Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland but I wouldn’t confuse either with a roadmap for anywhere in the real world.
DWH
‘BW would you like me to answer? Anything to help out.’
LOL. Same team, different colour?
Yep my thinking as well…….
Liz Burke
37m37 minutes ago
Liz Burke @LizAgnes
@vanbadham Turnbull won’t last as PM if they lose a lot of seats.
Van Badham
Van Badham – Verified account @vanbadham
.@LizAgnes No. Which is why I suspect that Tony Abbott did not resign his seat. He’s got reason to hope. #guardianlive
3:25 AM – 21 Jun 2016
1 RETWEET6 LIKES
Franklin D. Roosevelt? Nah. Katy Gallaghers mate, Jesus of Nazareth….
TPOF
‘The Australian has an overwhelmingly right of centre audience. Their readers could be persuaded to vote Labor, but they have a conservative bent. So The Australian talks up the prospects of a Greens / Labor deal in order to try and scare their readers off any prospect of voting Labor, because the Greens’ leftist policies are anathema to them.’
Excellent. And the Greens deliberately feed this. They deliberately help the Liberals gain and hold votes.
I rest my case.
Lee
You’re pretty ‘with us or against us’ yourself.
There has been a dribble of chatter in the Right MSM about Abbott coming back into the ministry… as Minister of Defence. Or Minister for Aboriginal Affairs.
The latter at least would reduce the number of people we go to war with the next time around.
Any poster here who thinks that the Green/Labor war is more important than Protecting the young, their education and their health.
Protecting the environment; the reef and stopping Global warming.
Protecting education, schools Universities, TAFE etc.
Protecting Medicare, Hospitals and one of the best health systems in the world.
Protecting the aged so they can live in dignity.
Continue your war. I think your little better than IPA/LNp/WNNJ trolls.
The ALP will not go pandering to the Greens for their support.
Im an ALP member and the majority of ALP members do not want to see any more collusion with the duplicitous Greens.
If there is a hung parliament the ALP will call the Greens bluff.
You support us or you support the libs.
Simple.
The ALP have the upper hand and will play it.
There is no way the decent greens supporters would tolerate their leadership putting the LNP back into office.
The Greens will have no choice but to support the ALP on supply bills and motions of confidence without the ALP entering into a destructive alliance.
There will be no formal agreement, no pandering on policy and no cabinet positions for power hungry Greens.
The greens will have no option but to support a Shorten led ALP govt.
Their only other options are to either consolidate their sell out to the libs which will be met with furious anger by the members or force another election which will see their vote drop drastically.
I dare the greens to not support the ALP in the event of a hung parliament.
They have no bargaining power and they know it.
TPOF
The project tonight showed the hi-vis vest challenge between Shorten and Peter Helliar
Wakefield:
I voted for Labor, Renewable Energy, Animal Justice, Greens, Cycle Party and Arts Party in that order from memory.
WP
That might be right. Except that it is not. The Greens are actively helping the Liberals.
Psst – saying ‘I rest my case’ isn’t a substitute for an actual argument. I know it’s hard for you to summon your already deeply limited persuasive powers, but you could at least give it a go.
The Greens don’t deliberately feed anything. It’s The Australian’s choice what it decides to report on. Everybody knows Labor’s going to need Green votes on the floor of Parliament to get its legislation passed either way.
Abbott should come back as the Minister for Performing the Last Rites for the LNP.
confessions
So, kangaroos ahead of novelists?
lee wool @ #713 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:04 pm
Wait, Katy Gallagher knew Jesus? Personally?
Gosh, she looks good for her age. 😉
victoria @ #712 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:04 pm
I have never known Tony Abbott so quiet, restrained, and out of the limelight.
Maybe Peta has him in chains somewhere…. no, not a good image.
I’m not really interested in bagging out the Greens here. I have a separate concern.
Fairly or unfairly a lot of voters to the right of the Greens, including the vital uncommitted voters in marginal seats, have the heebie-jeebies about a possible Labor government which has Greens involvement. I know this is the case because otherwise Scummo Morrison would not have launched a whole bit of scaremongering about a Labor-Greens coalition if the Liberals were to lose power. Morrison might be human garbage but he knows a dirt angle if anyone does.
Which means that whatever the merits or otherwise of the Greens, they are kryptonite to Labor in the same way that Medicare is kryptonite to Malcolm Turnbull and his ‘coalition’.
Labor not only has to distance itself from the Greens during the election campaign but must distance itself during any subsequent government formation negotiations. Labor’s medium to long-term future as the alternative to the Liberal-national Party coalition is dependent on it NOT being seen as connected to the Greens in any way, even if their policies overlap from time to time.
Novelists make their own choices. Animals not so much.
[I havent seen it, but Turnbull has done a last minute advert about medicare, and it has been on tv several times already tonight. Panicked indeed]
Labor will be doing cartwheels. As I said months ago Shorten knows his Art of War. He has occupied strategic positions and has built up strong defences. He attacks from there where the enemy is weak and refuses to engage where they are strong.
He’s lured Turnbull into a quagmire and the stupid fool keeps throwing resources into fights on Shorten’s battleground. If he had anything positive to offer he’d be talking about that on high rotation and ignoring health as Labor does Boats. But no, he’s got nothing else so he’s reduced to pleading and trying to put a dent in Shorten’s stronghold. All he’s doing is making it easier for Labor to fight the battle they want to.
DON – Abbott HAS to look like a loyal foot-soldier. Otherwise a defeat will be blamed on him and that will scupper his chances of a grand return.
BW @ 9.04
Why did you address that post to me? I’m perplexed as to why you are lumping me in with Rod Hagen and the Greens supporters.
TOPSS
‘The Greens don’t deliberately feed anything.’
But they do. You and Rod Hagen, without any trigger, raised the likelihood of a Labor/Greens government this afternoon.
Di Natale does the same in public.
You guys feed the Liberals.
You do it with eyes wide open.
For some reason you think this is a good thing to do.
I am perplexed as to why you think it is good.
RATSAK – Totally right. Labor went around closing all the gates, shoring up its positions on health, education etc etc, and then started throwing rocks down on Turnbull’s head. What a dill.
TPOF,
Well said.
The greens appeal to a very narrow voter base.
That is fine if you are a noisy fringe party but the ALP is a party of govt.
Sorry TOPF. I meant POTSS.
Me? Nah. Just echoing the tone of this place. You guys certainly give but have trouble taking.
Confessions – and my serious point is that your vote may exhaust and you will have no say about which of the other 20 or so groups win Senate positions apart from the 6 you voted for (which I all approve of). So CDP which is No 1 in WA could win a seat ahead of NXT, Libs as other likely late contenders and you have no preference? The advantage of preferential voting is that we get to have a say about all sorts of groups.
R
http://suntzuart.com/art-of-war-summary
And the truth comes out about the ADF.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-into-child-sexual-abuse-defence-force-recruits-forced-to-rape-each-other-20160621-gpo36m.html?&utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Afac-14omn0013-optim-nnn%3Anonpaid-25062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-smh-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook#ixzz4CDArUjf7
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Stephen Smith as Defence Minister was all over this stuff, but the current minister (whoever it is), MIA. Who is the current Defence Minister btw?
So glad that the efforts of SMith and the former ADF Chief haven’t gone to waste and this stuff can be picked up by the RC.
kevin-one-seven @ #730 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:11 pm
Agreed, but what I am surprised at is that there have been no damaging leaks recently. Are he and his supporters out of the loop? It seems unlikely.
I can’t work out his game plan. It used to be so obvious. It would seem that there is a new paradigm in place. The question is, who designed it and implemented it, because Tony is quite incapable of original thought.
Ratsak at 9.11
One of the things I’m really happy about is where commentators and Liberals respond to Labor’s ads on ‘you can’t believe what the Liberals say’ with references to ‘there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead’. No doubt they think they are clever, but they are just confirming the broad public prejudice that politicians always lie when they deny they still want to do something they have wanted to do in the past.
Labor has claimed total ownership of Medicare. Every time the Liberals insist they will not touch Medicare, the collective voters’ bullshit meters bounce up like a tasered cat.
lee wool @ #705 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:00 pm
I’ve read it. It’s rubbish.
Confessions
It is going to be really bad. Except for the guy who was interviewed. He has waited 49 years for today.
boerwar @ #735 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 9:13 pm
Well it’s about time you clarified that. Having just spent a less than happy few days in Amsterdam, I thought you had been affected by the major selling product of the ubiquitous coffee shops there.
Actually, I was responding to your amateur hour attempt to imply the Greens background The Australian on the power-sharing pacts they aspire to negotiate.
What a font of evidence you’ve provided.
He certainly doesn’t do it more than the Coalition or the media.
Herald Scum here in Victoria completely losing their mind.
Hellier hi-vis challenge on front page. Bill apparently avoiding CFA seats to spend time with celebrities…
And comes with free CFA sticker.
Not joking.
I have seen a Green’s ad on TV which tries to represent Labor and the Liberals as having the same policies. The voice-over is angry and very aggressive. Both my partner and I, who have voted Green in some past elections, think it the worst political ad on TV. How could the Greens be so incompetent?
Oh dear Sohar, you must have been so scared. A mug of warm milk and off to bed, you’ll be right.
Sohar
What! Worse than faketradie?
Boer War: you seem to keep confusing me with Green. I am an environmentalist but also an anti-socialist. And I believe in boat turnbacks. The Greens, unless they suddenly and unexpectedly develop a Right faction, are not the place for me.
I’m not sure that talk of a Lab-Green coalition is as negative for Labor as you believe. The RWNJs consider it to be a satanic pact, and the Australian caters to its RW audience by running this line.
And, of course, you and a number of other posters on here seem to be obsessed with the idea. But I doubt that the average voter cares all that much.
BTW, given that you go on and on about Labor, I have a riddle for you.
One out of Boer War and Meher Baba has voted Labor at every one of the last four Federal elections. Guess which one it is?