There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
V
Yep. The Greens are busy doing push polling in Batman. They are comparing Feeney to the Puff Adder. Oh, and they are wanking again on about a Greens/Labor Government, feeding that great friend of the Left, ‘The Australian’.
Meanwhile, Labor is trying to form government.
Left voters would be crazy not to see how the Greens are nothing much more than badly behave cannibals.
I think the Labor brains trust watched the British elections very closely. They knew Crosby/Textor was running that show and would come back to run the Coalition’s. They were prepared for the tactics. They also watched Obama’s campaign and how they did the grassroots thing.
I reckon they gamed both these tactical formulas and developed a rigid campaign plan to do the positive from Obama and fight the negative from Cameron. And I think the long campaign actually played right into Shorten & Wright’s hands. It gave them time to put all their plans into play carefully, and it meant they didn’t have to dance to the Coalition’s tune at any point.
Pokies reform need not be anathema to clubs or their members. Why should club members have to see their mates regularly taken down by gambling . They will always be able to support sensible restrictions on pokies. In a different way but most cigarette smokers also support restrictions etc which help them give up/reduce smoking.
As opposed to those well-behaved cannibals…
BW: “Shorten was around while the Greens created the bleeding electoral wounds from which Labor suffers to this very day.
Never again.”
If you mean the resurrection of the carbon tax, Tony Windsor was a big a player in that as the Greens.
Jauthor
Labor has clearly lost one week: it was the week in which they launched their 27 page plan which was devoid of numbers but which used the phrase ‘bigger fiscal contraction’ instead of the real phrase ‘bigger deficits’ in it.
It was shonky, IMO.
The document with the real numbers, ie the real deficits, awaits like a ticking time bomb before election day.
Victoria: “FMD. Abbott persisted with the carbon tax campaign for years, yet Labor is now “persisting””
Well, Labor, by its own admission, did introduce a carbon tax, whereas Turnbull has disavowed any intention to do anything to Medicare.
So I think one might reasonably use the word “persist” here in the context of “persisting, despite Turnbull’s denials…”
Meher baba
It just shows that the The msm are morally bankrupt. A
Can absolutely attest to the grass roots campaign having been waged well. It’s hard to tell objectively due to digital bubble syndrome, but the facebook ads certainly have come thick and fast in my feed.
In my case they seem targeted to take my engagement to the next level, i.e leading me to go from a like-clicker to an email sign up guy, from that to a small donation giver and I’m sure the next phase would be volunteering. I really wonder what I might be seeing from Labor on facebook if instead of having expressed a whole lot of likes for Labor and Greens pollies’ pages I had liked Liberal MPs instead? More targeted at winning the swinging vote perhaps?
Christian Porter says that ‘in an international context’ there is not an inequality problem in Australia.
Wakefield – Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 7:11 pm
The reality is that smoking reform hurt clubs badly. Pokie reform would finish many of them off. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be done anyway, just that you will lose many more votes than you gain.
Oh for goodness sake BW! Any “bleeding electoral wounds” are still so clearly down to a certain contretemps between JG & KR and the egos of respective backers that I’m amazed you can even pretend it is so.
But don’t worry. I’m sure the ALP learned its lesson about such things last time, and the Greens, if anything, seem even more pragmatic today than they were in 2010.
There are a million and one children’s books about cats and dogs that imagine they hate each other but sort it out when necessary. I have no doubt that you’ll both (ALP & Greens) sort it out once again when the need really arises. 😉
Perhaps he should be asked whether, ‘in an international context’ Australia has an immigration problem.
Boer – that one week they lost was because they let themselves be dragged into the Coalition’s tactics. They realised very quickly and went back to the schedule. As soon as they did, they arguments went back to Labor territory.
The numbers when they come, won’t be a surprise, so will flow through gently … and I suspect, they will challenge the Coalition to nail down their actual costings after all the stuff they’ve promised and the unfunded Tax Cut
MB
No, I mean the whole shebang. Please do not try to go to specific issues.
It goes like this. Before the elections always wedge Labor on everything. They can afford to because Greens voters don’t do sums at all. Then when the deal is cut, the Greens criticise Labor for three years. They brag about any progress as being a GREENS victory and while simultaneously criticising Labor for not going the whole hog. So the Greens maintained policy purity while putting the crap involved in compromises 100% over to Labor. What fucking fun!
Anything bad that goes down for the Labor Government is blamed by both Greens AND Liberals on Labor. Occasionally the Greens, in a fit of looking for 100% perfection, completely cut the rug from under Labor. The carbon deal comes to mind.
In the following election the raving right MSM and the Liberals remind everyone of how Labor is beholden to the most extreme policies by way of Greens blackmail. The Greens, at the same time, are pissing all over Labor for not being perfect. Like the Greens.
The truly interesting thing is that the Greens, who you would expect to do touchy feely, have no emotional intelligence about this at all. They confidently expect Labor to return for more of this shit.
Shorten suffered years of this sort of Greens bastardry.
He has made his position perfectly clear.
Good bye. Your best years are behind you.
Evening all.
I voted this afternoon, but stupidly forgot to take my glasses so had a hard time reading the Senate ballot paper which was huge, although not from memory huge-er than the previous one. Our HoR ballot paper had Labor, the Greens and then RWNJs or religious fundies, so I had no choice bu to vote 1. Labor 2. Greens 3. Nationals 4. Liberal 5. Christian Democrat people (or whatever they’re called) and 6. the Rise Up Oz party.
In the Senate I voted above the line and numbered the first 6 choosing Labor first and then backwards counting from the remaining 5 least offensive or appalling party choices. I didn’t see the Secular Party listed and hope my not having glasses meant I didn’t see them literally and so missed voting for them because I would’ve given that party my second preference.
The early polling place was next door to Rick Wilson’s office in Albany so naturally the only HTVer was a Rick Wilson volunteer. Naturally I waved him away when he tried to give me Wilson’s marketing material.
Bw
After 10 yrs of me being back and forth across the court at the net while the Inland Revenue and the ATO took shots at each other my head I think I’ll pass on the Panama option.
Jenauthor
It is simply impossible for Labor to avoid the full costing issues and the implications for debt and deficits. In other words, there is always going to be some time in the campaign during which Labor will dance to the economics tune.
Three years ago the MSM was telling us that Abbott would last for ten years.
Ten months ago the MSM was telling us that Turnbull would last for ten years.
IMO, Shorten has done a magnificent job over three years, not just over the election campaign. He has moulded an effective and unified team. Discipline has been exemplary. His Shadows are excellent quality and they all contribute. He has ensured that the team has gone out and developed comprehensive policies in all major areas. His policies have been in consultation with affected parties. They have been costed by the PBO. He has taken huge policy risks.
He has a major coherent narrative.
His parish pump level activities have been consistent winners. He has seen off Abbott. He has Turnbull at evens in netsat and PPM closing fast.
Shorten is clearly the best and most substantive LOTO we have had for many decades.
CTaR1
Ah.
ABC news spruiking Turnbull at every opportunity, even re the Eddie McGuire story. WTF happened to equal time during during an election campaign?
ABC news – know Mal’s story. LNP propaganda paid by taxpayers funds.
Meher Baba
Well, there was this article from a few months ago:
Greens would demand asylum seeker policy change under any deal with Labor
Improving the treatment of people seeking asylum in Australia would be a key policy demand of the Greens if Labor relied on the party to form minority government, Richard Di Natale has said.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/15/greens-would-demand-change-to-asylum-seeker-policy-under-power-sharing-deal-with-labor
RH
Don’t ‘for goodness sake’ me.
Here is your test: why do YOU right now think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government.
If the msm are to be believed, the last hung parliament was the worst thing that ever happened in voters minds.
Whoever is even slightly ahead in the opinion polls just before polling day should be fairly confident, especially if the msm start predicting the winner based on polls.
I don’t think anyone wants underdog status this election.
Four votes to change Prime Minister.
It won’t even be that close. Many of those who supported Turnbull only did so because they also fell for the ‘Turnbull is sooooooo popular’ myth. That one’s gone the way of the dodo. His only currency is worth less than a Zimbabwe dollar. He has no authority and no respect within the party. His campaign has been abysmal and those that survive it won’t be keen on a repeat.
The only question will be if a candidate that both the moderates and nutjobs can unite behind can be found. Until that occurs he might be safe (but maybe not even then). The chances of him making it to a second election as PM now are too small to consider.
7.30 report Liberal Party Ad now running
Steele, Doyley. It wouldn’t be too much to ask of Clubs (and Pubs) that they assume some duty of care for their members and clientele. Having to watch people die younger than they should from the various drugs and gambling problems that affect many working people is hardly the sort of outcomes or image that Clubs and their members want.
MB
I’m just a Labor voter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor Party members and Caucus would accept some agreement with Windsor but not want to have Wilke or X in a position where they could apply pressure.
That’s just a guess and I’m sure that there are commenters here who are more inside the tent that may say more on this.
Warning, this is a Sandpit Repeat for Rod Hagen
RH
Don’t ‘for goodness sake’ me.
Here is your Greens reality test: why do YOU, right now, think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government?
Windsor has made it fairly clear that he is not in play for Labor. Turnbull is not Abbott. Joyce would be gone.
Sceptic:
Which ad is that?
Ratsak
Win or lose, the surviving rats will be catatonic.
7.30 has used the phrase ‘scare campaign’ at least six times, and poor Mal has had to counter these tactics while ‘battling ill health’.
Sabra Lane’s report doesn’t even mention the policies that the govt has already tried to introduce to undermine Medicare, and characterises any changes as just updating technology.
Pure unadulterated propaganda.
Confessions
The “its all a great big scare “Ad
Re MB @6:40PM: A man as blatantly ambitious as Bill Shorten is hardly going to pass up the chance to have his name go down on the list of Australian Prime Ministers.
And a man as ambitious as Malcolm Turnbull is hardly going to risk the ignominy of being a footnote in Australian History as one of Australia’s shortest-serving PMs (24/29, or 24/27 excluding caretakers).
Shorten is clearly the best and most substantive LOTO we have had for many decades.
4.4 decades to be precise
Adrian
Never mind. Go to Great Continental Railways. A bit twee but some delightful moments.
Boerwar:
I had this discussion with Guytaur recently, who also didn’t get it. The reality is that a Labor/Greens alliance/coalition is bad news for Labor, and should be avoided in my view at all costs.
7.30 just did a “Nothing to see here.Move along now” effort on Medicare.
All the rats have marshalled in the last air pocket of the sinking ship, crawling over each other to fight for Saint Malcolm.
Thanks Sceptic. I haven’t seen that one yet so can’t comment.
Insiders also ran a Lib advert during its program the other day. All in the nature of commentary of course. And no equal time reciprocation.
4.4 decades to be precise Since Gough the Great. Time in office isn’t everything.
Mark Kenny has taken more positions than the Kama Sutra.
Bill could do worse than avoid 7.30 Report from here on in.
Leigh will be very in his face with “you are just running a scare campaign”, confrontation won’t look good at this stage, could be a no win situation for Shorten
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-takes-down-eddie-mcguire-there-is-no-place-for-disrespecting-women-20160621-gpog5z.html
I trust now that the media will ask Julie Bishop again about her view which is quite different to her leader.
confessions
Sorry I wasn’t referring to an actual Ad, just Leigh’s unbiased intro
Confessions
The concept is 100% confronting for the Greens.
Their narrative goes like this: We represent the true Left. It will take time but will eventually form government in our own right. In the interim we will be opportunistic in terms of forming coalitions, agreements and the like.
There are four basic assumptions:
1. 100% of nothing is better than 50% of something.
2. Labor is as much the enemy of the Greens as the Liberals.
3. The Greens will eventually form government in their own right.
4. Any damage to society, the economy and to the environment in the interim are worth it.
Once Labor and Liberal tell the Greens they are on their own their ONLY prospect for making ANY practical difference disappears over the horizon.
The Greens therefore have no choice at all.
They HAVE to witter on about a coalition with Labor – even when they know this increases the chance of PMs like Abbott and Turnbull.
Labor got caught out by this.
Never again!
Sceptic as long as he remains personable sincere and direct, I think Shorten will come out ok against Sales.
TH
I would not be holding my breath.
The MSM seems genuinely shocked that Holden is considering its multi billion dollar sponsorship of Collingwood.
[Well, Labor, by its own admission, did introduce a carbon tax, whereas Turnbull has disavowed any intention to do anything to Medicare.]
Yeah – no they didn’t. Gillard said others could call it that and weak minds and the dishonest did.
MB
Why? Labor does not want the trappings of government if it is hamstrung by the need to play up to various minor parties. It knows that the Coalition is barely keeping its shit together and will fall apart under the stresses of running a minority government – as it did in 1941.
It simply has to be patient and majority government will fall into its hands, even if another election has to be held.
Mark Kenny has finally realized that taking a contrary position to the rest of “The Political Class” (that class, over there) might serve him well in the event of a Labor government.
A fully paid-up member of the Press Gallery herd is now asking: “: Why are we jumping over a cliff?”.