There’s a bunch of electorate-level internal polling doing the rounds at the moment, something that always needs to be viewed with regard to the fact that those who commissioned might only be publicising the results that they like. Nonetheless, the display at the bottom of this post, which is updated with all the latest results, shows up no distinction in the average swing recorded across media and private polls over the course of the campaign period. As for published polling, Essential Research should, as usual, be with us later today. Roy Morgan has decided to dispense with its national polling and instead focus on electorate-level polling for the remainder of the campaign, the latest example of which isolates the ten strongest seats for the Greens. These results are based on samples of around 300 aggregated from all the outfit’s regular polling going back to January. That means a good deal of the survey period was from a time when the Coalition still had a substantial lead, and the “others” vote was lower than it has since become. Morgan has presumably, and probably correctly, concluded that it will generate more headlines this way than if it were merely one national poll among many.
• The Age reports that a poll conducted for the Greens suggests the party to be well in the hunt in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, despite the blow dealt them when the Liberals announced its how-to-vote cards would preference Labor ahead of them. The poll has Greens candidate Alex Bhathal leading Labor member David Feeney by 41% to 28% on the primary vote, which pans out to 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences, and would produce much the same result on 2013 election preferences. The automated phone poll was conducted by Lonergan Research from a large sample of 1600 respondents. However, The Age report also relates that “internal and larger-scale polling for the ALP” actually shows Labor leading on the primary vote. The report also says Labor’s poll shows the party to be “much more popular with voters under 24 than the Greens”, whose “strongest age bracket is 35-50 year olds” – a finding that frankly isn’t credible.
• The Advertiser reports that “high-profile Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis is facing a shock defeat to the Liberals in her inner-city seat of Adelaide”, although it’s based on a rather thin sample of 364. The poll was conducted for the ALP by ReachTEL, which I’ve never seen associated with a sample of this size before (UPDATE: And sure enough, ReachTEL denies it was their poll). According to the report, the poll credits Liberal candidate David Colovic with a 51-49 lead over Labor member Kate Ellis. The report speculates that Labor provided the paper with the polling “to rally support for Ms Ellis in the face of a statewide surge by the Nick Xenophon Team”.
• The Australian Education Union is circulating three ReachTEL polls conducted in marginal seats in New South Wales, one of which shows Labor with a commanding lead of 55-45 in the legendary bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro. Primary votes are 41.2% for Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy, 38.6% for Labor challenger Mike Kelly, and 11.0% for the Greens. A fairly extraordinary flow of respondent-allocated preferences pushes Labor’s two-party total well past where it would be based on 2013 election preferences, in this case 52.6%. Sample: 719.
• In Lindsay, Liberal member Fiona Scott has a narrow lead of 51-49 over Labor candidate Emma Husar, the primary votes being Liberal 42.9%, Labor 36.6%, Christian Democratic Party 6.4% and Greens 5.3%. Based on previous election preferences, Scott’s lead is 51.6-48.4. Sample: 656.
• In Page, Labor challenger Janelle Saffin leads Nationals member Kevin Hogan 52-48 on both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences, from primary votes of Nationals 42.1%, Labor 38.4% and Greens 12.2%. Sample 788.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that a poll of the South Australian regional seat of Barker, conducted by ReachTEL for the CFMEU from a sample of 869, has Nick Xenophon Team candidate James Stacey leading Liberal incumbent Tony Pasin by 52-48.
• A ReachTEL poll for the eastern Melbourne electorate of Menzies, conducted for independent candidate Stephen Mayne, credits Liberal member Kevin Andrews with a two-party preferred vote of 61-39, which would be 63-37 on previous election preference flows. Andrews’ share of the two-party vote in 2013 was 64.4%. The poll was conducted June 13 from a sample of 719.
Bw
The last bit was fun. My bank a/c over there was domiciled in a small French village. At the end questions came up about what tax I’d paid in France and they were both going to ‘investigate’ pending final resolution.
They both seemed very surprised to find I could organise a ‘certification’ from the Mayor of the Commune that what I’d paid was a simple transaction tax that was paid to the Commune (the Local Mayor’s over the years, most of whom I know quite well, all thought I was a great bloke because I paid tax to the Commune but didn’t have a vote …) and have it supplied to both of them in 48 hours.
They seemed shell shocked. A decade of shit over!
TPOF, one for you. Rod Hagan has done a runner.
Here is your Greens reality test: why do YOU, right now, think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government?
I think we can relax that based on what is known to date that NXT, Windsor, Oakeshotte, McGowan and Katter will all be likely to support Malware continuing as PM. The only chance for Labor to form a minority government would be if the votes of Greens and Wilkie could get to 76. That only happens if Labor wins exactly 73 (if Greens win 2), 74 or 75 seats. Labor could govern without any specific agreement with Greens or Wilkie apart from confidence. And if there are a number of other X benchers as well (which seems likely) then they could be pretty certain of getting any significant legislation through the HOR. Senate might be harder but probably similar.
Wakefield,
I understand your concerns.
However, smoking, alcohol and pokies are legal and people enjoy one two or all three. Individuals can make a choice and then carry that choice. It should not be up to governments to determine to what extent people should be allowed to enjoy any or all of the three.
If you, as a individual , do not like the extent that people , smoke , drink or play the pokies then that is up to you. Your opinion is just that, your opinion and I respect that. But it is just your opinion.
Because you have concerns does not mean others should have their choices regulated simply because you see a need for government to intervene.
It s all a matter of choice.
Cheers.
meher baba
Not in the Wild West. Pokies well and truly caged. Casino only.
Sceptic:
Oh. Incidentally I have just seen this ad courtesy of ALP 😀
https://www.facebook.com/LaborConnect/videos/10154333156701789/
Again with this “deal” to form government in the event of no clear majority in the lower house.
For Labor there need be no deal – the only question to the crossbench will be “do you support us or do you support the Libs”. Nothing more. No deal is needed, and the ALP should not make any commitments in order to form government.
If the Greens, or whichever independents want to vote confidence in an ALP government, fine, otherwise they can put the Libs in or send us back to the polls.
Sales and Lane getting a right bollocking on Twitter, not that they could give a shit.
Good to know that other people think that repeating the phrase ‘scare campaign at least 6 times in a 10 minute report is over the top. The
CTaR1
My Dad once entered Holland by way of an escape through a train window over a matter of a gulden or two (literally) that had gone AWOL during the escape from the NEI as was. Dad paid it. And then refused to pay it for the second time on a matter of principle. In the end he got so jack of the bureaucracy involved that he decided that it would be more fun to do a runner. Fortunately he had extensive family and friends so he never had to register at the town councils or in hotels.
He died at age 97, his debt to the Netherlands alive and well.
I assume that there is a live file somewhere in the bowels of what used to constitute the bureau for picking up messy NEI bits.
ReachTel poll just now. I had the option of preferencing Katter or the LNP stooge. First choice? Preference? Opinion of candidates? Opinion of leaders? Most relevant election issue: seven choices including environment and renewable energy. I think the others were health, education, economic management, protecting farmland and giving farmers access to automatic weapons (that last one might be wrong).
Let the phone calls commence -:)
Just had an attempted robopoll (second time I’ve been rung this election).
No matter how hard I pressed and repressed the required number, it obviously didn’t register, so I had to hang up.
Well, Rod Hagen and TPOF have both done runners from this one. Gun shy, I reckon. Maybe Meher Baba would like to explain it.
Here is your Greens reality test: why do YOU, right now, think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government?
Doyley – driving cars is legal – doesn’t mean that governments don’t put all sorts of regulations in place to prevent harm occurring. Or that car manufacturers don’t get into trouble if they sell dangerous products etc.
Pokies reform – yes the clubs survival, not the collateral damage. Like smokes – when people die and take their own lives from pokie addiction (I have skin here) the clubs lose as well as every one else. Same with smokes – crook and dead people don’t go to clubs. Anyway the smoking regs not did effect my old leagues club based fishing club patronage one bit.
I got phone polled today. Standard federal candidate and federal Party vote; second preference. And then came the kicker: the Light Rail.
Boerwar:
I doubt Labor will enter into an agreement with the Greens based on their experiences in the last parliament. Confidence will be tested, and if neither the coalition or Labor can form govt we’ll just have another election. And isn’t that how it should be?
One day the ABC management may realise that the majority ( maybe a small one ) of their audience is left of centre & won’t be swayed be the likes of Sales.. it just pisses them off.
Sob… sob… I’m blocked from even reading Leigh sales’ tweets, much less responding to them.
I must have done something very bad in the past.
Just saw Labor’s latest ad warning about a US style health system. Jesus H. Christ. Who said that lying union scumbag Bill Shorten could run around claiming that the Liberal Party doesn’t LOVE medicare. The little bastard even had a big smile on his face when he got stuck into the Liberal Party. The f…ing impudence!
It simply has to be patient and majority government will fall into its hands, even if another election has to be held.
Yep. The cost benefit certainly favours letting a diminshed leader who will be widely hated by his own party and supporters to try and herd cats and scrape together 76 votes to stay in the job.
The contradictions and conflicts simply won’t be able to be contained long. The no confidence vote (or more likely loss on the floor for a bill as per 41) might not happen on day one, but it will happen.
And when it does the GG will be forced to offer Shorten the PM job and he will like Fraser simply advise an election with him and his team as PM and Ministers. In 75 Labor was united behind Gough to fight the election. If it happened to Turnbull the infighting would still only be warming up during the campaign. It would be a bloodbath.
My first political memories are of posters featuring maps of East Asia and Australia, with scary red arrows headed guess where. The Libs and their allies have been doing scare campaigns since their foundation (not that my memory goes back THAT far). It’s how they get elected. After all, they can’t tell us what they REALLY want to do. Hardly anyone would vote for them.
And if Labor can use the tactic to scare people out of voting for those who would do great damage to Australia to enrich the few, well, at one level I might “tut, tut”. But really, mostly I am saying “go for it!” These days, much as I might wish it were different, you don’t win elections by being nice and reasonable, certainly not against thuggish, lying spivs like the ‘Liberals’.
Turnbull – Abbott in a better suit.
Poroti:
I didnt include SenX in my group of 6 votes in the WA Senate for that very reason. We don’t have pokies here, so what’s the point?
I agree any policy on pokies by Labor would be a bad move as there has been no mention of it in the campaign, a social change like that cannot be considered unless the ground is prepared, other changes like donations reform or a federal ICAC could be considered as they are not social reforms.
What I was trying to suggest is that rather than assuming a Labor-Greens arrangement on the left a Labor-Centre agreement.
I think that if the polls stay at 50-50, by the end of next week they will have moved decisively as voters (prodded by the media) will want a decisive result.
Whatever the reason, the Oiberals are shit-scared of Medicare-based criticism.
Nice to see them appreciating how it is to be scare bombed.
why do YOU, right now, think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government?
cause it might help Shorten get elected? [/sarcasm]
Bluey Bulletin No 86
Labor killed the Agenda today: Wall-to-wall Malcolm Get your hands off Medicare.
Repeat after Bluey: $100 roasts were not a scare campaign.
NIL ALL
Bluey has noticed how little JBishop has featured in this election. She is, after all, possibly next in rank to have a crack at leadership of the Federal Liberal Party Room.
Bluey listened closely to JBishop v Plibers today and the meta picture is this: Labor has completely and utterly checkmated JBishop – a major Liberal strength, and Foreign Affairs, ditto.
Bluey thought that JBishop looked quite stressed. She is hollow-eyed. Her death stares were a little bit watery and distracted. It was as she was more worried about the investigation into whether she had leaked top secret documents to her partner.
Once again Plibersek demonstrated her political maturity.
NOSHOWS
Bluey notes that Liberal politician after Liberal politician has become voter-shy except in the most tightly-controlled of circumstances.
Q&A
Bluey reckoned that Turnbull rambled in his most excruciating fashion. In his best merchant banker marketing tradition, he heaped praise on those he was screwing. He ratted on his Team several times.
SH-Y
Interviewed by KK and PvO. Utterly predictably, LIBLAB is no damn good at all.
SHY reckons we need a time plan and a commitment to reach .7% foreign aid benchmark. However, SHY reckoned that you could ignore the Greens on this because they are totally irrelevant in terms of making any practical difference. The really important thing, and one that would make an enormous difference, according to SHY was that the Greens KNEW the right thing to do and that the Greens KNOW that the Liberals and Labor are BAD. SHY reported that her mind had boggled about something that the old parties were doing. Bluey could have scripted SHY but was, nevertheless fascinated by the way in which the Greens still think that 100% of pure nothing is vastly superior to 50% of anything real.
TURNBULL ‘WHITLAMESQUE’ FFS.
Turnbull claiming the Tenbi Land Claim as his?
Whitlamesque?
Bluey reckons FMD.
Did Turnbull explain that the 37 year delay in the Claim, with nearly all the original claimants dead, involved huge efforts by the Liberals and Nationals and the CLP to drag the chain?
No?
Did Turnbull explain that the reason Darwin has one of the largest city areas of any city in the world is because the Liberal Nationals Country Party wanted precisely to forestall the Tenbi Claim and the Larrakeia Claim?
No?
Did Turnbull note that funding for Indigenous programs have been slashed by the Abbott/Turnbull governments?
No?
Did Turnbull note that the Abbott/Turnbull governments and the Giles government have combined to ensure that most indicators for remote Indigenous communities are charging backwards at a rate of knots.
No?
Whitlamesque? Whitlam was a great reformer in relation to Indigenous issues.
Turnbull has never shown the slightest interest in Indigenous issues and has been part and parcel of the wholesale destruction of Indigenous interests.
Bluey reckons don’t fucking dare mention Turnbull and Whitlam in the same sentence.
DIRTY DICK DINATALE BY NAME, DIRTY DICK BY NATURE
Dirty Dick claims that the Puff Adder and Feeney are same/same. Bluey has spent a bit of time unpicking the Puff Adder and Bluey reckons that Dirty Dick has no basis in fact for making this claim.
Bluey reckons a couple of things here. The first is that Di Natale does do dirty politics. Bluey reckons that the inherent nature of the holier-than-thous is that they will rapidly descend into cognitive dissonance if they start playing Dirty Dick’s game.
MORRISON LIES AGAIN
A new Report is out on the impact on house prices of Labor’s policies. Straight away, Morrison comes out and says a couple of things. One is that the Government had nothing to do with the Report. The second was that the Report says that house prices would ON AVERAGE decline as a result of Labor’s policies. Immediately after this, Speers interviews the Report’s author who says well, any impact will be in the future and any impact will be UP TO 4%.
Bluey reckons that Morrison is a compulsive liar. Bluey notes that Morrison lies often and lies big. Bluey seems to recall that a certain other propagandist recommended this approach.
Verdict for the Day: Labor
Cumulative Tally: Labor 55 Coalition 35
They varied the theme in the wake of Wik to include scary red patches of native title claims over much of the country. Flash forward 20 years and have swathes of people in capital cities (or anywhere ftm) lost their homes to native title claims?
Um, no.
Sorry, meant to add that the Libs don’t just want to privatise Medicare. They want to destroy it.
WAKEFIELD – If NXT gets into bed with Malcolm, he’d be nuts because Malcolm’s authority will be shot if he only manages a hung parliament and Monkey Pod will be rampant. I can imagine NXT only agreeing to support confidence motions for a while, but how long would Monkey Pod be satisfied with being part of a neutered govt. The whole thing will dissolve.
The Communist Party took power in Russia because, despite being tiny, it was the only unified and cohesive organisation in the field. The Labor Party is the same (and Shorten is our Lenin!). That’s a joke.
John Menadue is spot-on in his analysis of private health insurers. At most they have a niche role to play, and they should play that role without any government subsidies or legislative assistance. The big leg-up that this inefficient industry gets, apart from the generous premium subsidy, is the legislatively enacted financial penalty for high income earners who don’t buy this industry’s product.
Private insurers have too little bargaining power with health care providers to play a useful role in controlling costs. The federal government has immense power to put downward pressure on the profit margins of pharmaceutical companies, medical equipment manufacturers, and pathology test providers. It has immense power to put downward pressure on doctors’ incomes, not only by driving a hard bargain in negotiations but by increasing the supply of doctors.
The federal government has the ultimate responsibility and great power to increase the capacity of the health care workforce. The private health insurers train zero doctors and zero nurses; they do no research into drugs, or surgical techniques, or new medical equipment. They are basically parasites.
If it were in the public interest to support private health care providers, this could be best achieved by the federal government cutting out the insurance middleman and funding private hospitals and clinics directly. People have got to understand that the private health INSURERS add no capacity to the the health care system.
Zoomster- [Just had an attempted robopoll]
I have had the same problem. Is it a VOIP thingy problem? I have not used push number options on my landline before so not sure if thats just not possible with voip or its a robocall problem.
Has anyone else seen the Labor ad with a huge waiting room of people and warning we don’t want to end up like the US?
Bw
😆
The idea that when I was in the UK I paid tax to the Inland Revenue and when home I paid to the ATO seemed an alien concept to them.
Fess – [They varied the theme in the wake of Wik]
I had respect for Tim Fischer until then. It was disgraceful.
Whoopsie. Bluey has just reminded me that Morrison claimed that the average decline in house prices would be 4%.
The author of the Report stated that it would be up to 4%. And that it was prospective and it all depended yada yada.
Morrison is clearly implying that anyone who has a house now will lose 4% straight away.
Morrison’s lying is compulsive. It is also stupid.
I’m sooooo bored of the True Believers manning the barricades against the Greens. Let’s have a look at some of the most recent stupid comments.
badly behave cannibals
Is that why Turnbull is below 50% in his own electorate?
Greens voters don’t do sums at all
I can count to $50bn which is what the Greens have banked by not following through with company tax cuts. Add another $Xb from ending negative gearing, $Xb from ending the capital gains discount for property, about $XXb by cutting the number of submarines to six, and I think the Greens have got a pretty heavy car chest. You can be pretty sure a Greens government would hammer the corporates.
the Liberals remind everyone of how Labor is beholden to the most extreme policies by way of Greens blackmail
Is that why Labor decided to adopt the Greens’ policy of a banking royal commission?
Shorten suffered years of this sort of Greens bastardry
You’re putting Shorten and bastardry in the same sentence? The Greens are the only national party to change leaders in an organised manner. How does Bill feel about that?
Greens would demand asylum seeker policy change under any deal with Labor
How many Labor MPs want the same thing? How many Australians want the same thing?
a Labor/Greens alliance/coalition is bad news for Labor
The carbon price was a popular initiative of the Gillard government, despite her insistence on calling it a carbon tax. Abbott won because Labor ate itself. Stop blaming the Greens for assassinating your own leaders.
As for BW’s four-point piffle, ending with the resounding cry of Never Again!: I’ll see you after the election. For now, you lot are boring me to tears.
CTaR1
Ah. Time to form a committee.
Just saw a PUP ad!
You mean an ad for puppies?
Ah, here is a live one. The rest have run away. So, Mr Koser:
why do YOU, right now, think ‘The Australian’ spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about the likelihood of a Greens/Labor Government?
And why do You, right now, think the Greens continue to talk it up?
McGowan is repeatedly saying at public forums that she will not make a decision in the event of a hung Parliament, full stop. She is apparently willing to let another election been called (although I don’t think that has been said explicitly).
K17
The candidates did look a bit like last dogs in the pound. But no, not puppies.
Wakefield,
Governments do not tell car owners/ drivers how often they are allowed to drive or how far they are allowed to drive every time they take the car out.
Yes there are regulations in place to try and protect drivers but accidents still occur. So how much further should regulation go ? Do you restrict the majority to protect the minority or accept they people will in many cases still do stupid things while driving and also accept that people need to take responsibility for their actions. Up here in Brisbane we have had very heavy rain over the last few days and despite continual warnings about driving through flooded roads idiots still do it and get stuck. Should all drivers be banned from driving during storms and heavy rain or do we accept no matter what we do idiots will still be idiots or in the case of pokies a minority of people will go overboard no matter how far regulation goes. Why should the majority be restricted because of the actions of the mnority?
Clubs have limits on pokies in venues, restrictions on where people can smoke and regulations in place to stop drunks getting served but people still get into debt, still get drunk and still smoke too much. How much is too much when it it comes to restricting people from engaging in what are still legal activities.
Anyway, that is about it from me.
I respect your opinion but in this case must disagree.
Have a great night and thanks for the discussion.
Cheers.
Z
That is bad news for Indi. If she holds the BOP she could get FTH, for example.
Bluey seems to recall that a certain other propagandist recommended this approach.
Who shall remain nameless in case someone raises “Godwin’s Law”, although in this case I think that the comparison is valid.
Boerwar:
I’ve actually thought JBishop isn’t exercising as zealously as she was previously and has since started looking a mite healthier.
ABC 730 openly campaigning for the Liberals tonight ..explaining why the ALP “Save Medicare” campaign is scare-mongering ..no foundation ..move on ..no more to see here..
Blatant and completely unacceptable anti-ALP bias by their ABC..
@Mari: “I will join you [dancing in the streets of Bellingen] when I return to oz if pruneface goes. Worked as accountant of Windsong chimes when owned by my mates (hippies) For a few years after moving from Sydney. Love your markets”
We’ve got a big music festival here the week after the election. If Hartsuyker goes, there will be much rejoicing. Unfortunately, I’ve got to be out of town for that weekend, but I’ll be in Grafton, in Page, and there may be cause for celebration there as well, hopefully. Although Grafton will never throw a party the way Bellingen can 😉
What a hoot. Koser reckons the Greens are the only Party to change leaders ‘in an organised manner’.
How would Koser know?
It is all done at night and behind locked doors.
And golly, there were a few noses out of joint when the Dirty Dealer rose to the top.