Some news items from the past week of local tactical significance, plus, for your convenience, a revised version of yesterday’s electorate seats table incorporating corrections and a few things I’d missed, and the latest reading of BludgerTrack inclusive of Friday’s Ipsos and ReachTEL polls (see below).
• In a corrective to recent published marginal seat polling and the resulting impression that Labor is not getting the swings where it needs them, Laurie Oakes reports Labor polling shows them picking up 6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43; the Central Coast seat of Robertson, for a lead of 53-47; and the Perth seat of Hasluck, putting them at 50-50 (compared with a 53-47 to the Liberals in the ReachTEL poll). In the Perth fringe seat of Pearce, which Christian Porter holds for the Liberals on a margin of 9.5%, the swing is said to be 9%.
• Bill Shorten yesterday promised the federal government would contribute $400 million to a north-south rail link in western Sydney accommodating the proposed site of the Badgerys Creek airport, which would be particularly advantageous in the seats of Macarthur, Werriwa and Lindsay.
• Malcolm Turnbull travelled to Townsville on Monday to promise $1 billion of Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding would be devoted to supporting the Great Barrier Reef, through concessional loans to agricultural projects and sewage treatment plant upgrades. Target seats include Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn.
• The Nationals are taking Cowper seriously enough to have had Barnaby Joyce visit the electorate on Tuesday to promise $1.25 million on an upgrade of the Port Macquarie airport.
• The Liberal candidate for the winnable Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn, was in the news for the third time during the campaign on Thursday, when The Age reported the Christmas Hills address at which he was enrolled was an “empty block of land”. The Australian reported yesterday he was actually enrolled at a house in Wallan, but it appears he was enrolled at the Christmas Hills address when he voted at the 2013 election.
[Cant govern alone if you cant get policy through senate. Unless of course you wheel and deal with tories. As you do.]
They are a little more reliable than the Greens, who voted against action on climate change when they thought there was a few votes in it.
“Savva just dropped that there will be a dirty ad campaign against Turnbull based upon “information they have come by”.
Niki Savva suggested there was more skeletons in closet to come from Labor’s candidate a couple weeks ago. Nothing eventuated. Actually Barrie Cassidy challenged her suggesting the unions and Labor had run a clean campaign as it was noted by commentators. Savva then said it was from ‘her information’ and then rambled there had been some ads criticizing Turnbull’s wealth. It was quite obvious she had nothing, and was grasping at straws.
Savva has a conflict of interest being on insiders because her husband is working for Malcolm Turnbull. Cassidy days working for Labor long gone, so he can generally have a view without feeling conflicted. Savva is not going to open criticize the Turnbull campaign, and is just a talking Liberal parrot.
You go on apologising for xeno and homophobes. I guess it helps you sleep while chasing them for their vote. Wouldnt want to offend them would you. True labor style.
I had intended to watch Insiders today, but other stuff intervened.
I may just watch the end now to see what Savva implies. Sounds interesting!!
Executive government in Australia is formed in the lower house.
If the Senate decides to be simply obstructionist there is a remedy for that.
Action on climate change! THe ets?! Which 49% of the climate denier tories backed. Lololol. Yeah, great policy that was.
William can we move the vile called green vs labor to anothet thread?
Im tired of seeing it when first logging on every day. When there should be something meaningful happening…
David
Just saw your comment. So you think Savva is making up stuff ie that Labor have come by information re Turnbull?
A Job Guarantee hires off the bottom so that job-seekers who are getting a zero bid from the private sector can get a minimum wage job with full benefits whenever they want one. That isn’t “cornering the labour market”. It’s setting the floor at a socially acceptable level.
Wage subsidies are an economically illiterate and ineffective policy measure, designed for gesture not substance.
Whats this about Savva?
D&M
Your story does not surprise me at all. Greens voters will I think almost all like Tanya and will happily preference her. Tanya will attract back many possible green voters because she is seen as progressive and basically in sympathy with most Green ideals. I cannot seriously see Tanya as under any threat, unless I guess Liberals tactyically ALL switched preferences which is very unlikely.
Albo is rather different because despite sharing much in common ideologically with the greens he is a fighter and perhaps is more closely linked in the public mind to ALP factionalism. However with such an unattractive Greens candidate I think Albo is safe unless (and people on the ground in Grayndler may know this) for some reason the Greens candidate attracts the old working class unionist vote.
The strory in Victoria is a little different. Feeney is not the sort of guy to get Greens preferences willingly, and although many will hold their noses and preference him it will not be done with enthusiasm. More importantly which of the Greens and Labor will attract Liberal preferences. I do not know much about the Liberal demographics in Batman – if they are fairly RW Abbott type Liberals then Feeney is safe, but if they are more the Turnbull type then the Greens may get over the line. Is their any one SANE from Victoria that can sensibly comment on the Liberals in Batman.
Wills is also interesting. My gut feeling is that labor has chosen badly in its candidate. Seems good on paper but!!!!!!! However I am not on the ground in Wills so there may be many with a better feel than me.
Sorry, but there much much more bile thown at greens in this thread.
[there had been some ads criticizing Turnbull’s wealth. ]
There should be adds criticizing how and where Turnbull accumulated his wealth. It is SPIVVY at best.
How would the federal government create a buffer stock of minimum wage jobs?
By providing a Job Guarantee.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=23719
[Sorry, but there much much more bile thown at greens in this thread.]
You say bile, I say well deserved criticisms most greens sheep lack the self awareness to accept.
potato potato
They WILL – in 2019, after the wheels have fallen off this incompetent government. Just wait and see.
Zoidloid@107,
Zoid, I was just about to suggest that Lee Wool is a troll, and should be ignored. I am guessing this poster is actually an LNP troll trying to stir up G/Lab leadershit. Before said poster commented this morning, we were all having civilized discussions – Lab and Greens voters.
So, I beg of you all PLEASE IGNORE Lee Wool, or the blog will be come unusable today.
Just as mentioned to rummel the other day they will sell everything: http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/06/19/08/47/shorten-reignites-medicare-battle#F0g3YlUTWWt9LSkR.99
If i lived in feeneys seat i would preference liberals. Feeney is a worry. Google feeney jackson. These people have no place in politics.
Vic:
I only watched the SenX interview and then wished I hadn’t bothered.
Wow, Nicholas, your favorite policy (judging by number of posts) is that the government basically subsidise every job — yet now you think that’s a bad idea?
Can’t see much difference between a job guarantee (which can only be achieved by some kind of subsidy system) and what Labor’s talking about.
And guaranteeing minimum wages and conditions doesn’t address the problem of getting people into the workforce to start with.
Im sorry but if you all continue to bag out greens i will defend. If you dont i wont. Unless you want an exclusive labor love in. Whatever.
Seconded!
Pathetic
Good Morning
Lee Wool is as sane and credible in posts as Briefly and BW on the Labor Green thing.
Fess
Fair enough. As mentioned earlier, I may just watch the last bit to observe Savva’s closing comments. Maybe her body language will guide me as to whether she is making sh@t up
David
“Just saw your comment. So you think Savva is making up stuff ie that Labor have come by information re Turnbull?”
Making it up or exaggerating the truth. Savva view that suggesting Malcolm Turnbull can’t relate to battlers because his net worth is grubby politics, when it is a legitimate criticism. How many people have a net worth of 150 million?
It was quite clear from Savva’s commentary it was done to put Labor and the Unions in a bad light. I will never take what Savva says about the unions seriously. She wrote an article suggesting the royal commission into unions was warranted, but a royal commission into the banks is just be done for popular-ism. Enough said.
RIP Paul Cox
Thats right. Lets make it personal.
David
No doubt Savva is a partisan hack.
Mark Kenny made two very relevant comments.
One every one has picked up on. Don’t believe anything you are told during an election campaign.
The second not so much but more important as it will catch out the dishonesty. That the press pack has been failing and needs to start doing follow up questions. I truly hope this happens.
This issue is a stain on everyone who votes for the two major parties:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/06/18/the-humanity-crisis/14661720003385
‘Cant govern alone if you cant get policy through senate. Unless of course you wheel and deal with tories.’
Well, on this criteria, about the only government which governed alone in the last fifty years was Howard’s last….so the statement is pretty meaningless.
Uhlmann is a very right-wing ABC identity (polite term). His wife is a Labor member in a safe seat. Maybe she doesn’t care, as she knows she is safe.
Nikki Savva can’t be correct about a Labor dirt campaign against Turnbull.
Chris Uhlmann told us that by this stage in a campaign both sides will have outlined all their policies and that therefore everybody in Punterland knows everything there is to know about the issues and that there’s really no point in continuing to campaign, as the Libs have it in the bag. Labor has lost, so why bother even having a campaign launch?
Geez, and I thought Savvy had the savvy?
Shut up, Zoomster.
If Poll bludger doesn’t already have a “no hyperbole” rule then one needs to be introduced, IMHO.
It is the use of untrue and inflammatory language that leads to so many rucks on this site. If everyone stuck to the facts and stopped taking deliberate pot-shots that serve no other purpose than to get a ruck started then every thread would be both more enjoyable and much more productive.
Debate is a wonderful thing. Deliberate provocation? Not so much.
‘Unless of course you wheel and deal with tories. As you do..’
And, indeed, as the Greens do….
At least the union rc outed jackson and her faction. It also showed shorten for the corporate fine dining player he really is…
zoomster
Exactly as has many of the attacks on the Green been.
I have been called a Greens supporter for pointing out facts.
So its fair Labor supporters here get some fact free attacks in the same way they have been throwing mud at the Greens.
🙂 After slagging off Labor for $100 M to help Arrium Libs wheel out Poodle Pyne to announce the libs will chip in $50 M .
To state the obvious, Lee Wool has as much right to comment here as anyone else.
It’s passing strange that there is far more tolerance of RWNJ morons like Compact Crank than someone with apparently genuine left wing views.
That said, I wish there was a separate thread for these seemingly interminable Labor/greens wars.
I don’t know how you can avoid Labor/Green arguments particularly during an election campaign. A
Poroti
I missed the presser. Did Pyne have a big cheque to hand over?
http://greens.org.au/no-deal
Agreed!
Guytaur@125,
Yes, there are many people here who try to stif things up.
However, Wool is not using any facts, just wild statements that are designed to provoke arguments. This is classic troll behaviour, and it is stopping discussion ont he blog.
Nicholas, Pegasus and PhoenixGreen also post about Labor policy they do not like, but they are sensible posts, and designed to put a point of view, not to make the blog unusable.
Poroti
I am watching Sky and saw that from CPyne. Now Kieran Gilbert says his gut tells him that Labor at this stage are only looking at winning a handful of seats
Gee, didn’t take Lee Wool long to get introduced to STFU.
This is a great point about the allocation of responsibilities between rich and poor countries for responding to refugees:
https://overland.org.au/2016/05/we-a-nation-of-torturers/