Some news items from the past week of local tactical significance, plus, for your convenience, a revised version of yesterday’s electorate seats table incorporating corrections and a few things I’d missed, and the latest reading of BludgerTrack inclusive of Friday’s Ipsos and ReachTEL polls (see below).
• In a corrective to recent published marginal seat polling and the resulting impression that Labor is not getting the swings where it needs them, Laurie Oakes reports Labor polling shows them picking up 6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43; the Central Coast seat of Robertson, for a lead of 53-47; and the Perth seat of Hasluck, putting them at 50-50 (compared with a 53-47 to the Liberals in the ReachTEL poll). In the Perth fringe seat of Pearce, which Christian Porter holds for the Liberals on a margin of 9.5%, the swing is said to be 9%.
• Bill Shorten yesterday promised the federal government would contribute $400 million to a north-south rail link in western Sydney accommodating the proposed site of the Badgerys Creek airport, which would be particularly advantageous in the seats of Macarthur, Werriwa and Lindsay.
• Malcolm Turnbull travelled to Townsville on Monday to promise $1 billion of Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding would be devoted to supporting the Great Barrier Reef, through concessional loans to agricultural projects and sewage treatment plant upgrades. Target seats include Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn.
• The Nationals are taking Cowper seriously enough to have had Barnaby Joyce visit the electorate on Tuesday to promise $1.25 million on an upgrade of the Port Macquarie airport.
• The Liberal candidate for the winnable Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn, was in the news for the third time during the campaign on Thursday, when The Age reported the Christmas Hills address at which he was enrolled was an “empty block of land”. The Australian reported yesterday he was actually enrolled at a house in Wallan, but it appears he was enrolled at the Christmas Hills address when he voted at the 2013 election.
Mark Kenny: ” The media pack need to get their act together quite frankly. ”
Yep.
Ipa as influential on libs as unions on labs. Trivial influence. Unless you believe scare campaign propaganda…sell out shorten wont even protect penalty rates ffs!
Lee Wool
They are Coalition policies. The list has been discussed frequently here.
Lizzies. Which ipa policies, that take effect over the next few years? Since we’ll have 5 PMs in next 10 years…
Citizen
It’s not only mattresses!
It would be so beautiful if Porter lost this; and as far as I can see to an opponent who largely just isn’t bothering to run a campaign.
That’s quite a startling difference from Bludgertrack – most unusual. The two usually run fairly parallel. Looks like some different assumptions are being made regarding the preference flows of minor parties and/or the weighting of the ReachTel results.
If it persists, it will be interesting to see who’s right on polling day. But my money is on William because of his focus on state breakdowns which Kevin doesn’t do. Either way, both are great psephologists and we are privileged to have their input at times like this.
Kenny: “dont believe anyone in an election campaign”. Yeah, especially a dying corporate media.
Thank you Barrie for throwing to Bill Shorten, Prime Minister! : D
Wage subsidies are terrible policy. It’s far better to directly create a buffer stock of minimum wage jobs with good conditions, which creates a floor under which private sector employers can’t fall without ruining their capacity to attract and retain workers.
He is worse than most politicians, he commitment to stunts, and himself, is easily greater than Dastyari, on the true stunt Master Abbott had a higher dedication to stunts.
Oh the irony!
WWP:
Labor has never won in Pearce, but imagine if it became a marginal seat!
Mark Kenny: “It’s a Liberal Party company. It’s called ‘Feedback’. It should be called ‘Kickback’!”
Boom tish! : )
Remember when Morgan came in at 52.5 for Labor and everyone said it was an outlier. When you look at the leaked labor internals (respondent allocated) and the Morgan (respondent allocated) it isn’t really. I understand that Newspoll is not respondent allocated. But, if it was, would it say much the same thing?
I assume that’s also the reason why Morgan showed such a big swing to the Libs after Turnbull became leader (up to 56% I think) because the respondent allocated component turbo-charged the lib vote. Presumably lots of greens were more in favour of Malcolm. However, as his popularity has slipped, the respondent allocated component has started to turbo-charge Labor.
So it looks like this is really an election between previous-election allocation of preferences and respondent allocated preferences.
I also think Labor could pick up a point or two in the last two weeks. The libs have been trying to send the electorate to sleep because they know the more people see of Malcolm, the less they like him. His popularity is largely based upon having replaced Abbott. After that, everybody went onto political cruise control. However, it’s hard to hide a PM in the last two weeks of the campaign.
lizzie @ #44 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:32 am
The G’s are determined to cast Labor and the LNP as equally repugnant. This is about their prefs and their B-o-P strategy. If they can get away with running this line for long enough, the share of G-prefs going to Labor will fall significantly. They will then be able to run “open tickets” without also depressing their own vote. The day that G-prefs divide equally between Labor and the LNP is a day on which the G’s will rejoice. They will then be able to sever the pref support that has been available to Labor candidates, resulting, they will doubtless hope, in the loss of Labor seats to the LNP.
This is the G strategy. It is as plain as day to any who actually look at their campaign.
With respect to the B-o-P, the G’s have clearly decided the only circumstances in which they will support a Labor minority would be if Labor were to concede to impossible terms. We should get used to the idea that co-operation between Labor and the G’s in the Parliament is all but finished. The G’s will ask for concessions they will know Labor could never accept. It is no surprise at all that Labor are promising to rule alone or not at all. This is an existential imperative for Labor.
Darn, from last topic,
This is a bit of a long post, but reports my experience on the hustings yesterday.
I was door knocking in the Newtown end of the seat of Sydney yesterday for Tanya Plibersek, and as well as asking people if they had any concerns or issues that we should pass back to Tanya, we asked people to sign a petition to keep Medicare in public hands. So, I think it was part of a concerted effort.
I have never doorknocked before, and given that I was in the part of the Federal seat of Sydney that is also part of the state seat of Newtown (held by Jenny Leong for the Greens), I expected a very hostile reception.
Nothing could be further from the truth. There were a couple of Greens voters who politely said that they could not vote for Labor because of the asylum seeker policy, but they were polite and sorrowful, and will give Labor their second preference.
Apart from that, people ranged from being supportive and friendly, to immediately saying “Go Tanya”.
The issues that came up were:
1) Medicare – even the Liberal voters signed the petition – if Turnbull does bring in extensive co-payments if he wins, there will be enormous anger in the broad community;
2) NBN, and the fact that a lot of money is being wasted on installing copper;
3) From some older gay voters, the fact that the Greens had preferenced the Fred Nile candidate over the Liberals, when at least the latter were willing to talk about marriage equality;
4) Education, and Uni fee deregulation;
5) Protection for animals that we export to other countries, against the inhumane slaughter practices that just seem to keep coming up;
6) the mess that West Connex will make of the inner city, while giving no benefit to the people if Western Sydney.
There were a few things that surprised me: The lack of animosity on behalf of people who are favourable to the Greens, in one of the more Green-leaning neighbourhoods in Australia; the enormous level of quiet, determined support for Labor; the high level of engagement of the voters.
There was no sense that people are switched off or disengaged, or are saying a plague on both your houses.
The most surprising thing: the incredible reception we got from the young people, who could not wait to tell us they were voting for Tanya. No exceptions to this.
So, a question for the Millenials – are young people starting to look at Labor again, after some years of either disengagement, or favoring the Greens?
Have other people had similar experiences door knocking?
The fat lady may be standing up and clearing her throat, but I do not thing she will sing until much closer to July 2nd.
Oh, and Morgan has shown 51 – 49 the last two polls. Wonder if they stared into the abyss and got a bit nervy.
Have a civil, respectful discussion about Same Sex Marriage in parliament! That’s what it is there for!
A rare moment of agreement Nick, but in the unlikely event such a scheme was started it would be shutdown in less than 12 months with nightly ‘rorts’, ‘cons’, ‘criminals abusing the system’, stuff dominating ABC and other news channels.
Marky Kenny – don’t believe anyone in an election campaign. Comic gold. He’s been a sewer outlet for the PM’s office for years.
The terms of which, the nature of which, of the form of words of Constitutional Recognition for Indigenous Australians is also unknown!
confessions @ #63 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:51 am
The enrolment growth in Pearce has been occurring in places where transport, schools, NBN, jobs, State Government incompetence and broken promises are all resonating with voters. Unfortunately, Labor don’t have the resources to really campaign there …yet! It’s one for next time.
lee wool @ #39 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:24 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBcqd3cFRDU
K17
I am often fascinated by the difference between what the journos say on Insiders, and what they write for their papers. Not criticising, just thinking that in conversation the truth slips out.
I know a little about some parts of the seat, including Swan Hills. I also remember a certain Mr Smith on TV doubting Labor had won Swan Hills the night Gallop won power.
lee wool @ #52 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:38 am
Typical G-bilge water.
I must read Williams Pearce summary. Main Street in Ellenbrook would be vastly improved by the removal of Porters smarmy face.
Labor will NEVER govern alone again. Ever. Face the facts. I must say i am enjoying the labor faux green hate. Dont get me wrong, i think this tactic does help with the redneck tony tradies vote.
Oh that’s rich! Nikki Savva tut-tutting at Labor because it is going to run some negative ads against Turnbull and the Liberals!
I take it Williams doesn’t have a seat by seat thing this time?
I must say i am enjoying the labor faux green hate.
Says the guy full of Green bile for Labor.
Pfft! Lightweight.
Savaa was at her worst today. Can’t remember one truthful thing she said the whole time. Her prolonging of the multi-faith dinner conversation reminded my of the Greens v ALP wars here in a sheer boredom regard.
douglas and milko @ #67 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:52 am
Well done D&M!!
Do they even exist any tradies I know think he is / was a useless
?
Bile? Just fact
lee wool @ #79 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:01 am
Well, the NT State Election is on August 26, so:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
lee wool @ #79 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:01 am
There is nothing faux about the analysis of G-politics. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t hate the G’s. But I am determined to critique and to contest their campaign.
Savva just dropped that there will be a dirty ad campaign against Turnbull based upon “information they have come by”.
Tony tradies, howard battlers. Redneck socially conservative xeno and homophobes who are so scared they vote against their own economic benefit. Most non-corporate liberal voters i imagine.
So long as it is a continuation of the Cayman’s Mal stuff, or IPA stuff (it isn’t a scare campaign when it is more likely than not it is true, no privatisation of medicare is there anyone on any side that believed Turnbull for more than 10 seconds on that one) it will be effective.
I would be nervous about any new fronts of attack that didn’t start with at least those levels of credibility.
“Labor will NEVER govern alone again. Ever. Face the facts. I must say i am enjoying the labor faux green hate. Dont get me wrong, i think this tactic does help with the redneck tony tradies vote.”
Your right. And you evidence is solidly backed by the Greens have one seat in the House of Reps.
nicholas @ #60 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:47 am
bollox…absolute bollox….this is to argue that the state sector should try to corner the market for labour…a self-evident absurdity….
Bk
Kev-07 can claim believable total innocence this time. 😀
Cant govern alone if you cant get policy through senate. Unless of course you wheel and deal with tories. As you do.
lee wool @ #90 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:10 am
lol…the deft political touch of a G who resents voters on display here.
It’s obvious why voters dislike the G’s….the G’s dislike them even more…It’s a reciprocating deal.
Nicholas
How?
lee wool @ #95 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:14 am
This is G power-mania on show.
Lee Wool
And as the Greens do.
Lee Wool
Climate change. The NBN. Health care. Education. Gay marriage. A Royal Commission into banking….etc.
I know, I know – none of these are really important issues, are they?