Highlights of week six

A weekly summary of pork barrelling, campaign mishaps and intelligence on the state of the horse race.

Some news items from the past week of local tactical significance, plus, for your convenience, a revised version of yesterday’s electorate seats table incorporating corrections and a few things I’d missed, and the latest reading of BludgerTrack inclusive of Friday’s Ipsos and ReachTEL polls (see below).

• In a corrective to recent published marginal seat polling and the resulting impression that Labor is not getting the swings where it needs them, Laurie Oakes reports Labor polling shows them picking up 6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43; the Central Coast seat of Robertson, for a lead of 53-47; and the Perth seat of Hasluck, putting them at 50-50 (compared with a 53-47 to the Liberals in the ReachTEL poll). In the Perth fringe seat of Pearce, which Christian Porter holds for the Liberals on a margin of 9.5%, the swing is said to be 9%.

• Bill Shorten yesterday promised the federal government would contribute $400 million to a north-south rail link in western Sydney accommodating the proposed site of the Badgerys Creek airport, which would be particularly advantageous in the seats of Macarthur, Werriwa and Lindsay.

• Malcolm Turnbull travelled to Townsville on Monday to promise $1 billion of Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding would be devoted to supporting the Great Barrier Reef, through concessional loans to agricultural projects and sewage treatment plant upgrades. Target seats include Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn.

• The Nationals are taking Cowper seriously enough to have had Barnaby Joyce visit the electorate on Tuesday to promise $1.25 million on an upgrade of the Port Macquarie airport.

• The Liberal candidate for the winnable Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn, was in the news for the third time during the campaign on Thursday, when The Age reported the Christmas Hills address at which he was enrolled was an “empty block of land”. The Australian reported yesterday he was actually enrolled at a house in Wallan, but it appears he was enrolled at the Christmas Hills address when he voted at the 2013 election.

bludgertrack-2016-06-18

2016-06-19-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Highlights of week six”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A lot of time trawling for not very much this morning.

    Hello hello! It appears that another under the radar Liberal fundraising scheme is operating in the PM’s electorate.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/pm-malcolm-turnbulls-links-to-secretive-fundraising-20160617-gplhmg.html
    Labor calls out the government over Treasury advice on which demographic is the major beneficiary of negative gearing.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/18/labor-seizes-on-treasury-advice-that-wealthy-get-most-from-negative-gearing
    Peter FitzSimons’ Sunday column.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/our-skewed-values-on-show-in-election-promises-20160617-gplv9r.html
    Where the pork is being distributed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-labor-pledges-to-outspend-coalition-on-local-roads-transport-sport-centres-20160618-gpmc75.html
    This is a pretty good rip-off by Baird!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/aged-and-disabled-to-be-slugged-annual-fee-by-public-trustee-20160617-gpm2pn.html
    Scott Morrison needs training in the use of metaphors.
    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2016/jun/18/scott-morrison-using-taylor-swift-analogies-time-for-a-creative-writing-lesson
    Have a look at the shit internet speeds in Adelaide and other capitals! Google.
    /news/south-australia/south-australias-internet-speeds-slowest-in-nation-new-study-reveals/news-story/9e71bd99efc06b2e95f1ea4255de81d2
    Dennis Jensen exposes the Parakeelia rip-off.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/liberal-party-shut-dennis-jensen-out-of-the-parakeelia-data-goldmine,9125
    A former Chief Scientist slams the CSIRO cuts.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/election-2016-former-chief-scientist-penny-sackett-condemns-csiro-cuts-20160617-gplr5v.html

    Peter Martin n the lies that diminish us all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/aged-and-disabled-to-be-slugged-annual-fee-by-public-trustee-20160617-gpm2pn.html
    What can one say about this?
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/man-arrested-for-rape-after-12-amish-girls-found-in-his-home-20160618-gpm8a6.html

  2. Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The SMH opines that it’s time for Baird to lift his veil of secrecy from Sydney Metro.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/mike-bairds-action-on-a-second-harbour-rail-crossing-is-no-excuse-for-secrecy-20160617-gpm581.html
    Young Christian puts a human face into the disability issue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christian-puts-human-face-on-disability-debate-as-election-turns-to-health-20160618-gpmcjt.html
    The RWNJ who was charged for killing Jo Cox confirms his credentials in court.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/accused-killer-of-british-mp-jo-cox-gives-name-as-death-to-traitors-freedom-for-britain-20160618-gpmh15.html

    Ron Tandberg on US gun control.

    Pat Campbell also.

    Mark Knight reckons the CFA dispute will have federal ramifications.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c30eddc7f928b0bf0622dbbef6da459c?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

  3. CTar1

    I’m on a roll this morning. My frustration with Mr Harbourside Mansion and his devious crew is reaching new heights. Disappointment is far too weak a word.

    The Coalition was foreshadowing this “she’ll be right, no need to risk change” meta-message from early in the year, and it became very evident when opinion polls began showing the tax cuts for big business were actually pretty unpopular. The Coalition just shuffled the tax cut specifics down its list of talking points and turned up the broad-brush rhetoric.

    On the Liberal party’s website the opening spiel talks about how the world is “very uncertain” but, luckily, Turnbull can offer the “political stability” with a “strong economic plan for jobs and families”. No mention of tax cuts, or any other policy. Even when you click on the link offering more information about a “strong new economy” you only get told about “tax cuts and incentives for small businesses”. It’s not until you read well down a separate link about small business that you find out the tax cut will, over time, extend to all businesses.

    And if Turnbull is ever asked about the tax cuts now he emphasises how those benefits for big business are a long, long way away.

    The Coalition is briefing that it is intending to go “small target” for the remainder of the campaign because voters are “disengaged”, but surely that’s inverting reality. One reason voters are disengaged is precisely because the Coalition has been running its small target strategy so very successfully from the start. There’s only so many times a person can listen to that speech about jobs and growth.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/17/debate-forces-leaders-off-script-but-small-targets-still-rule-the-campaign?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. The Sunday TurdBurgler features 2 female columnists today, Peta Crelin and Miranda Devine. Their synchronous topic? Muslims.

    Peta has gone all international religion analyst with observations about ‘the deadly cancer at the heart of Islam’, whilst Miranda lays the Murdoch slipper into Turnbull, saying the only ones he wants to be inclusive about is the Muzzies.

  5. Also from the Turd….

    Labor’s $257m for jobs pledge
    OFFERING small businesses a $20,000 tax break if they hire a mum returning to work, a ­mature-age jobseeker or someone under 25 will be the centrepiece of Bill Shorten’s campaign launch today.

  6. And the front page of the dead tree version of the Sunday TurdBurgler is neatly split between more naming and shaming of Neville Wran’s daughter and advice to Turnbull to stop cuts to youth mental health.

    This is classic Murdoch modus operandi.

    1. Humiliate people for reader tittlation.
    2. Bully politcians on populist campaigns.

  7. Malcolm Turnbull says he has “no criticisms or complaints” to make of the controversial Exclusive Brethren and is happy for the extremist Christian sect to continue donating to the Liberal Party.

    Dozens of members of the resolutely anti-gay group – which has allegedly been responsible for covering up child sex abuse – have donated into the Free Enterprise Foundation, the Liberal Party’s alleged slush fund.

    Mr Turnbull indicated the Liberals needed all the financial support it could get to compete with Labor and the unions.

    “They enjoy an enormous financial advantage over the Coalition at this election,” he said.

    I call bulldust on this.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/no-complaints-malcolm-turnbull-defends-brethren-donations-to-liberal-party-20160618-gpm9z5.html#ixzz4By2VuJ3B
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  8. Lizzie

    “They enjoy an enormous financial advantage over the Coalition at this election,” he said.

    You’d have to assume he means in ‘declared’ donations only.

  9. I note BludgerTrack’s seat count is showing as LN(C)P 75, ALP 71 and others 4. (And I have found that marktheballot is also worth reading.)
    Thanks for the table, anything recent on Eden – Monaro, given its bellwether status?

  10. Nobeljnet

    I think those paying for polling aren’t wasting their money on Eden Monaro. The Lib has been invisible will be toast so I don’t think Eden Monaro counts as bellwether in this election.

  11. Thanks for the table, anything recent on Eden – Monaro, given its bellwether status?

    Magnificent Mike Kelly ahead of Putrescant Peter Hendy in the last poll taken there. Others may be able to supply you with the details. : )

  12. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-major-parties-ignoring-what-young-people-want-20160613-gphxfv.html

    Social views and social policies dominate the priorities of young Australians heading into this election. A pre-election survey by non-political NSW organisation Youth Action showed people aged 17 to 25 nominated asylum seekers, marriage equality and climate change as their most important issues. Pro-refugee policy was singled out by more than a fifth of all respondents.

    Which goes some way to explaining why young people might feel disconnected from this campaign. On the issue where they most want to see change, the major parties are in agreement. Neither side wants to dwell on gay marriage, either. Climate change has figured occasionally in discussions about the Great Barrier Reef, but sans the heady rhetoric of Kevin07.

    As such, more young people are flocking to the Greens.

  13. Thanks BK
    Like the ScoMo one about his use of metaphors.
    Should be entitled:
    “Morrison’s cultural appropriation of the thinking class.”

  14. Lizzie

    As such, more young people are flocking to the Greens.

    Rightfully disillusioned with the party of Martin Ferguson.

  15. “6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43;” No third time lucky for Karen Howard it would appear. She stood as a Liberal backed “independent” for Newcastle mayor, then for the state seat of Newcastle and now Paterson.
    Bill was at Stockland Green Hills (East Maitland) yesterday http://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/3976744/bill-shorten-back-in-the-hunter-photos-video/ (my wife and daughter were there) where, apart from the teary young lady, a guy confronted him for not attending the Vietnam repatriation service apparently.

  16. A defiant Premier Daniel Andrews has condemned “lies” about the deal struck with firefighters and staunchly defended his personal intervention in the bitter dispute that has seen a cabinet minister resign and the board of the Country Fire Authority sacked.

    Following a torrid fortnight where Mr Andrews had been painted as a bully and beholden to unions, the Premier said he had not been taken by surprise by the backlash.

    In an exclusive interview with Fairfax Media, Mr Andrews said the dispute had been victim to “cheap political games” and pledged to lay to rest the concerns of volunteer firefighters about the workplace deal with career officers.

    After meeting a CFA brigade in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, Mr Andrews also dismissed as an election tactic the threat by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to change workplace laws and protect volunteer firefighters.

    “I think Mr Turnbull will drop the CFA as quickly as he found it. He has not read a word of this agreement,” Mr Andrews told Fairfax Media.

    “It’s pretty obvious that this is all about politics, and I just think it is sad that volunteers and career firefighters are being used as footballs in a political game. That is disrespectful.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/country-fire-authority-crisis-andrews-defiant-rejects-cheap-political-games-20160618-gpmcti.html

  17. A new front has opened in the student-migration scam, whereby the Turnbull Government has opened the door to international primary school students and their guardians to access Australian schools and purchase Australian property ahead of achieving permanent residency. From SBS News:

    From July 1, students aged six and above would be able to apply for student visas regardless of their country of citizenship – and their guardians can also apply for Guardian visas (subclass 580)…

    These visa-rule changes, which were announced during Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s visit to China in April, also mean non-residents can buy several new properties or one existing property…

    Dave Platter, from the leading Chinese international-property portal Juwai.com said there has been a nearly 20 per cent jump in inquiries for properties in Australia since Mr Turnbull’s announcement…

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/06/turnbull-opens-new-student-migration-scam-floodgate/

  18. As such, more young people are flocking to the Greens.

    Very self-serving statement because young people are also ‘flocking’ to Labor as they support a policy that doesn’t allow People Traffickers to ply their vile trade in lives that are disposable as soon as they have got their money from the desperate people seeking refuge from terrifying situations in their homeland.

    As anyone who watched the documentary on Kobani and Syria and the European refugee crisis last night on SBS would have understood. It detailed the story around the family of the boy whose lifeless little body washed up on the beach and became the focus of worldwide attention last year.

    Only the father of that family is alive now to tell the heartbreaking tale of how the People Traffickers have been taking advantage of desperate families and cramming boats full to the point they know they will likely capsise in the Mediterranean. They don’t care. The more people on a boat, the more money for them.

    And as Richard Di Natale had no answer for what will happen once The Greens Asylum Seeker cap of 50000 is reached, let me just tell him, Greens supporters and young people ‘flocking’ to The Greens over the asylum seeker issue that the People Traffickers have the answer for them.

    They will just continue to go about their deadly business making money out of other people’s misery and desperation.

    The idealism of Australian Greens politicians and their supporters be damned! 50000 + what the market will bear – however many drown at sea, here we come!

    Which is what the young people who support Labor and their ultimately more humane asylum seeker policy realise. Idealism is fine but it often has a seamy underbelly in reality.

  19. And here’s little Greg Hunt banging on about his pay the polluters climate change policy whilst lying about labors massive hit to electricity prices with its ETS.

  20. Correction about Karen Howard – Liberal backed “independent” for Newcastle mayor – not Mayor, it was the State by-election for Newcastle as a Liberal backed independent that resulting from the Jeff Cloy bribery scandals.

  21. Insiders is like a add for the Coalition….Chris Uhlmann talking up Turnball being smart saying no need for change vote for me. Calling Labor ‘shrill’ ffs…..how about some balance and critical analysis that goes both ways not just directed at Labor. It should be the right of Labor to stand up for Medicare etc maybe state that the Coalition do NOT believe in universal health care no that will not be said

    Don’t know why I am surprised just disappointed.

  22. From the previous thread….

    william bowe @ #726 Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    How come the preference skeptics on this blog never ask if the Greens flow to Labor is likely to remain at 83% now the Liberals are led by Turnbull rather than Abbott?

    I think 3/4 or 7/10 is likely to be closer to the mark. In places where Labor-G tensions have been high, the result could be even lower for Labor than this. The G’s have been sending a lot of signals for a long time that will undermine the flow of prefs to Labor:

    – Labor and the LNP “are just the same”…suggesting that there is no reason for G-voters to prefer one side to the other
    – The G’s have campaigned hard to win seats from Labor…suggesting that Labor and the G’s are competitors more than collaborators
    – The G’s do not necessarily pref Labor 2nd on their HTV’s (and sometimes not at all)…suggesting their pref recommendations in favour of Labor are half-hearted
    – Labor candidates are spectacularly defamed by the G’s in various ways…in effect condemning Labor and guiding G-voters away from Labor

    If G-voters start to pref “tactically” against Labor, the share of their prefs going to Labor may fall far enough to start to divide in favour of the LNP. At this point, the approach of Labor to the G’s would have to change considerably.

    There is certainly a resentment of Labor to be found among G-voters and vice versa. This is hardly surprising.

    Considering the agenda of the G’s is aimed at achieving the B-o-P and then using it prosecute various pro-G institutional changes, it is quite likely that at some point the G’s will try to guide their supporters to pref against Labor candidates in selected Labor/Liberal contests. They came perilously close to this in Melbourne in this election. If the G’s thought their own party interests would be best served by replacing Labor members with Liberal members, there’s no doubt they’d try to do it. We’re not at that point yet….but maybe we’re not far from it.

  23. Nick Xenophon, just another politician. Refuses to credit the part the Labor Opposition played in getting the Subs to be built in SA.

  24. I heard on a 3aw news service at 1.00am this morning something about new Newspoll results showing that Labor is still struggling in the marginals. It did not give much detail but the gist of it seemed to be that of ten marginals polled only the new seat of Burt would go to Labor.

    All I can say is that if Bludgertrack is accurate – and past performances indicate that it usually is (within a small MOE) – those 16 seats going to Labor on present projections must be coming from somewhere.

  25. Scoutdog you don’t get critical analysis of anything in relation to the coalition on your ABC, except on the increasingly rare occasion that someone from Labor is allowed to speak without being harangued.

  26. Whats this libs/greens crap some of you keep repeating? When you look at actual policies, its the liblabs who are virtually identical. Corporate whores that they are. Absolutely zero difference who is in to most aussies, but it WILL be the greens who keep this scum in check. Thank your lucky stars.

  27. Sprocket_
    Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 7:03 am
    Also from the Turd….

    Labor’s $257m for jobs pledge
    OFFERING small businesses a $20,000 tax break if they hire a mum returning to work, a ­mature-age jobseeker or someone under 25 will be the centrepiece of Bill Shorten’s campaign launch today.

    I like it. Sounds really good.

  28. trog sorrenson @ #18 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 8:00 am

    Lizzie

    As such, more young people are flocking to the Greens.

    Rightfully disillusioned with the party of Martin Ferguson.

    I’ve yet to see any such “flocking”. The young people I meet are concerned about jobs, wages, the cost of education, the cost of housing, the cost of living and the need to prevent climate change.

    With respect to boats, the politics of this is changing. When Abbott “stopped the boats” he also stopped the fear stories available to both the Right and the G’s. A-S is now about closing facilities, the treatment of detainees and their ultimate re-settlement. This is much less fertile ground for the G’s than is available from the piteous images of small unseaworthy craft, huddled cargo, the foundering of boats and the drownings.

    Abbott did Labor an enormous favour by stopping the boats. He also stopped the G’s.

  29. Adrian – I know

    I must be naïve
    hate playing the ‘media is against us’ card but it is reality…honestly believe he campaigned a lot better than Turnball might be a replay of Beazley!!

  30. I posted this last night. Thought it might be worth repeating for those who were not tuned in then

    A chap turned up at our door today with a petition against any privatisation of Medicare. He was from Jenny Macklin’s office and of course we signed it.

    After he left I got to thinking what a great exercise in grassroots politics that is – taking the message directly to the people that the Liberals are itching to get their claws into Medicare. It is bound to be effective and I just hope it is happening all around Australia.

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