Highlights of week six

A weekly summary of pork barrelling, campaign mishaps and intelligence on the state of the horse race.

Some news items from the past week of local tactical significance, plus, for your convenience, a revised version of yesterday’s electorate seats table incorporating corrections and a few things I’d missed, and the latest reading of BludgerTrack inclusive of Friday’s Ipsos and ReachTEL polls (see below).

• In a corrective to recent published marginal seat polling and the resulting impression that Labor is not getting the swings where it needs them, Laurie Oakes reports Labor polling shows them picking up 6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43; the Central Coast seat of Robertson, for a lead of 53-47; and the Perth seat of Hasluck, putting them at 50-50 (compared with a 53-47 to the Liberals in the ReachTEL poll). In the Perth fringe seat of Pearce, which Christian Porter holds for the Liberals on a margin of 9.5%, the swing is said to be 9%.

• Bill Shorten yesterday promised the federal government would contribute $400 million to a north-south rail link in western Sydney accommodating the proposed site of the Badgerys Creek airport, which would be particularly advantageous in the seats of Macarthur, Werriwa and Lindsay.

• Malcolm Turnbull travelled to Townsville on Monday to promise $1 billion of Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding would be devoted to supporting the Great Barrier Reef, through concessional loans to agricultural projects and sewage treatment plant upgrades. Target seats include Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn.

• The Nationals are taking Cowper seriously enough to have had Barnaby Joyce visit the electorate on Tuesday to promise $1.25 million on an upgrade of the Port Macquarie airport.

• The Liberal candidate for the winnable Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn, was in the news for the third time during the campaign on Thursday, when The Age reported the Christmas Hills address at which he was enrolled was an “empty block of land”. The Australian reported yesterday he was actually enrolled at a house in Wallan, but it appears he was enrolled at the Christmas Hills address when he voted at the 2013 election.

bludgertrack-2016-06-18

2016-06-19-marginal-seat-polls

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Highlights of week six”

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  1. It doesn’t matter who the “real” fake tradie is, it’s an ad, and it’s an actor.

    The people the ad is targetted at aren’t on Twitter.

  2. Newspoll 50-50
    Alp 36, Coalition 41, Green 10
    June 16-19

    Barnaby ahead in New England 51-49 2PP (Primaries Nat 48, Windsor 36)

  4. Just managed to log in after 5 attempts. To see what newspoll is up to,
    WOW to paraphrase PVO poll bludger seems to have picked up some strange? new posters in last couple of days

  6. The fake tradie ad was on during Masterchef – really awful! For a minute, I thought it was a Chasers sketch.
    Must have been Scott Morrison’s idea, something he cooked up with his mate Ray Hadley

  8. poss

    ‘You mean like revealing tax-dodging companies and Senate voting reform?’

    See – you really are closer to the Libs than Labor.

  10. Any group who took the precepts expounded in the first few books of the Old Testament literally as a basis for life and law would make the Taliban and IS look like a bunch of hippies.

  11. Briefly – sounds like you are canvassing in a very difficult area. It is one of the oddities of politics in Australia that areas with high dependency on social security often also have a very low interest in politics. Same reason for use of drugs and poor diet – a poverty of spirit that is very hard to budge and certainly needs a good look by everyone concerned with reform politics.

  13. Shorten’s launch was very good, he’s come on in leaps and bounds since last year.
    I still think 21 seats is too much to pick up in one election cycle, but he’s giving it a red hot go.

  14. puff, the magic dragon. @ #652 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 6:47 pm

    I know Rudd was not at the launch so he and his supporters did not get to bask in the glow, but can they try not to belittle the ones who were there, especially the only female PM, please.
    Please desist from sinking in the boot into the ribs of Julia Gillard every chance you get. It is a bit unseemly.

    Give us a break Puff. It has been gleeful numpties like confessions who have been taking the opportunity to sink the boot into Rudd, not the other way round.

  15. lee wool @ #1031 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    School breaking the law? Whaaat? It has no money. Or gets no money. Teachers often use their own time and money. I even donated a computer.

    If that’s true, then you should certainly report that as well. The sooner somebody figures out why that public school has no money, the sooner it can start receiving it.

    However, it was your ‘inexperienced teenager-teachers’ comment that makes me suspect that the school may be breaking the law. Laws vary by State, but to become a teacher in a public school, you need at least a Bachelor of Education degree. So unless your school teachers are populated by Doogie Howsers, then chances are, if the main teachers are teenagers, they probably don’t have degrees.

  16. Newspoll 50-50
    Alp 36, Coalition 41, Green 10
    June 16-19

    Much healthier primaries than we’ve seen reported in recent times.

  17. C@Tmomma
    Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:26 pm
    edi_mahin @ #1038 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    Douglas and Milko,
    My view is there is only one on person fit to rule Australia and I long for his return to the earth to become king.

    Marvin the Martian?

    Gough Whitlam? Ben Chifley?

  21. #Newspoll 50-50
    ALP 36, Coalition 41, Green 10
    June 16-19
    Barnaby ahead in New England 51-49 2PP (Primaries Nat 48, Windsor 36)
    #ausvotes

  24. president of the solipsist society @ #1045 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    Entirely predictable response from a commenter whose schtick appears to be devising ever more vinegary put-downs of Labor supporters.

    An even more predictable response from a commenter whose schtick appears to be to keep digging.

    Thank you for proving my point.

    And really, is that the best you could come up with in reply?

    Over and out. As I don’t know what I can gain from continuing to respond to a drive-by smart arse who thinks that responding to someone here is some kind of one-upmanship contest. It’s just too puerile for words and so I won’t be wasting any more on the keyboard equivalent of an oxygen thief.

  28. Yes, Lee’s school doesn’t sound like any school I’ve ever seen or heard of, and the schools in this area are amongst the state’s most disadvantaged.

  29. wakefield @ #1039 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    KB. Isn’t the problem with this election is that the Others vote in 2013 had a lot of PUP. That vote has dissipated and now we have a new lot including NXT. I would have thought some analysis of the views of Others in Reachtel and other polls to try and correlate with Labor and LNP views might be helpful but just using a figure for Others from 2013 seems a bit of a guess.

    The problem is basically just NXT. Conveniently, the 2PP preference flow from PUP and the remaining Others in 2013 was almost exactly the same so PUP’s disappearance has no impact.

  30. wakefield @ #1061 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Briefly – sounds like you are canvassing in a very difficult area. It is one of the oddities of politics in Australia that areas with high dependency on social security often also have a very low interest in politics. Same reason for use of drugs and poor diet – a poverty of spirit that is very hard to budge and certainly needs a good look by everyone concerned with reform politics.

    Yes. The area is so washed out.

    I had a very upbeat day yesterday..so much fun, on the whole. And less than 2km away, streets of pity and fear….

  31. Over and out. As I don’t know what I can gain from continuing to respond to a drive-by smart arse who thinks that responding to someone here is some kind of one-upmanship contest. It’s just too puerile for words and so I won’t be wasting any more on the keyboard equivalent of an oxygen thief.

    What an impressive array of adjectives. Some good thesaurus work! B+

  32. Edi_Mahin
    all sex outside of marriage is wrong, I don’t care who is involved, it is wrong.

    But that’s my point. How can sex outside marriage be immoral if, legally, you can’t get married?

  34. Not that I mind, each to their own, but I do find it a little odd that someone so…devoted…to Jesus would find a wretched hive of filth and villany such as these hallowed halls an appropriate abode for political discussion. Nor, must I confess, to I quite grasp what precisely someone who wants a literal aspect of divinity as his or her ruler hopes to glean from a blog about the dirty art of humanity conning each other into giving up political power.

    I hope we’re providing some entertainment, at the least.

  37. Rhwombat @ 10.20pm: I seem to recall that you are a medical practitioner, perhaps even of the urological variety, so I guess you would be the go-to person here if someone like Edi ever has the singular misfortune to be “wounded in the stones” (Deuteronomy 23:1). Not to mention for advice on the wisdom of circumcising a 99 year old, which sounds suspiciously like elder abuse (Genesis 17:24).

  38. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-campaign-day-43-labors-campaign-launch-turnbull-in-sydney/news-story/264f376b98984db6f279fd4121868f43

    8min ago | 10.30pm
    Newspoll is in

    Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten enter the final two weeks of the election campaign with an almost identical low satisfaction rating from voters as their parties are deadlocked at 50-50, writes Phillip Hudson.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the primary vote for both Labor and the Coalition edged up in the past fortnight.

    The Coalition’s primary vote returned to 41 per cent while Labor rose to 36 per cent. The Greens are unchanged at 10 per cent with support for other parties and independents fell to 13 per cent.

    Satisfaction with Turnbull’s performance fell over the past fortnight while Shorten’s satisfaction rating climbed. Turnbull remained the preferred prime minister over Shorten but more than one-in-five voters remain undecided.

    Full results, analysis, and tables in The Australian plus reaction online tomorrow.

  41. president of the solipsist society @ #1081 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    Over and out. As I don’t know what I can gain from continuing to respond to a drive-by smart arse who thinks that responding to someone here is some kind of one-upmanship contest. It’s just too puerile for words and so I won’t be wasting any more on the keyboard equivalent of an oxygen thief.

    What an impressive array of adjectives. Some good thesaurus work! B+

    Give up.

  42. About the Ghost Rider in the sky.
    The other night upon the stair I saw a man who wasn’t there.
    He wasn’t here again today.
    I wish to hell he’d go away.

  43. So once again polls are 50/50 I wonder if its a mistake for Bill nit to work with Greens and others in Minority gov?

  48. JimmyDoyle, do you think God really cares what we punny humans call legal or illegal? All that matters is the commitment before God.

  49. Leroy Lynch

    Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten enter the final two weeks of the election campaign with an almost identical low satisfaction rating from voters as their parties are deadlocked at 50-50, writes Phillip Hudson.

    Surely this misrepresents the situation? Mal is in freefall while Shorten is on the up and up!

  50. The Greens are unchanged at 10 per cent. Green +-0

    Exactly where their belief in their intellectual superiority gets them. Going nowhere fast.

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