Some news items from the past week of local tactical significance, plus, for your convenience, a revised version of yesterday’s electorate seats table incorporating corrections and a few things I’d missed, and the latest reading of BludgerTrack inclusive of Friday’s Ipsos and ReachTEL polls (see below).
• In a corrective to recent published marginal seat polling and the resulting impression that Labor is not getting the swings where it needs them, Laurie Oakes reports Labor polling shows them picking up 6% swings in the Hunter region seat of Paterson, giving them a lead of 57-43; the Central Coast seat of Robertson, for a lead of 53-47; and the Perth seat of Hasluck, putting them at 50-50 (compared with a 53-47 to the Liberals in the ReachTEL poll). In the Perth fringe seat of Pearce, which Christian Porter holds for the Liberals on a margin of 9.5%, the swing is said to be 9%.
• Bill Shorten yesterday promised the federal government would contribute $400 million to a north-south rail link in western Sydney accommodating the proposed site of the Badgerys Creek airport, which would be particularly advantageous in the seats of Macarthur, Werriwa and Lindsay.
• Malcolm Turnbull travelled to Townsville on Monday to promise $1 billion of Clean Energy Finance Corporation funding would be devoted to supporting the Great Barrier Reef, through concessional loans to agricultural projects and sewage treatment plant upgrades. Target seats include Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn.
• The Nationals are taking Cowper seriously enough to have had Barnaby Joyce visit the electorate on Tuesday to promise $1.25 million on an upgrade of the Port Macquarie airport.
• The Liberal candidate for the winnable Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen, Chris Jermyn, was in the news for the third time during the campaign on Thursday, when The Age reported the Christmas Hills address at which he was enrolled was an “empty block of land”. The Australian reported yesterday he was actually enrolled at a house in Wallan, but it appears he was enrolled at the Christmas Hills address when he voted at the 2013 election.
Edi_Mahin:
So are you one of those progressive types who go in for burning adulterers, or should we stick to good old Deuteronomy 22:21, and stone them?
Superanuation? Liberals policy actually better? Whaaaat?
As I said, Poss, that’s the sort of thing that happens when you’re trying to achieve things in the real world.
Fantasyland lets things work out just the way you want it to, without messy compromises.
The Libs fake tradie ad being destroyed on Twitter.
And a massive OHS violation with that circular saw and bracelet! #faketradie #auspol #ausvotes
As i said earlier, Lee, you appear to be one of those people who vote Green because of the guilt they feel about their own choices.
Oh, and the most run down school I ever taught in was Catholic.
Is that evil too?
I saw your comment yesterday about sex being evil outside of marriage. A rather antiquated view I would have thought.
It’s the sort of thing that happens when you can’t sell your own policies. I guess that is increasingly reality for Labor.
Rhwombat, only someone who has no idea what they are talking about would think of mentioning Deuteronomy in this context. Go get a clue.
lee wool @ #972 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:57 pm
Yeesh. If what you say is true, then that school is potentially breaking the law.
My advice is to bring in a complaint to your State/Territory Education Department, either through your local education office or state ombudsman (if you’re in QLD like I am), personally would be best.
Tax dodging corporates? Mmmmmmm. Well Lets try name and shame. Ooooohhhhh. Really scarey. Wouldnt want to upset uncle Rupert too much.
In the absence of facts, it is time to check the steaming entrails of a sacrificed goat.
‘Pretty much neck and neck’ is not EXACTLY neck and neck which tends to exclude 50/50.
Had PvO WOWed it, we would have been looking at, say, 52/48. But PvO did not do WOW!
This leaves, in all likelihood, 51/49.
But 51/49 for whom?
William has offered the view that if it had been 51/49 the Coalition’s way then CKenny’s immediate emotional response would have been more upbeat.
William did not say so but the assumption here might be that the Coalition is trying to do bandwagon momentum cum boring foregone conclusion rather than try to upset the applecart of the underdog.
Therefore, the 2PP will show a small surge to Labor which, according to Micheal, is not worth a probabilistic can of beans.
But did we listen carefully to Michael?
No!
So… 2PP up for Labor!
Shorten’s netsat will improve a bit.
Turnbull’s netsat will disimprove a bit.
The PPM gap will narrow a bit.
It is all BAU.
Another eight weeks and Labor would be romping it in with handsome majorities in the House and the Senate.
Its a difficult one for them. No-one will attack Turnbull on it if he’s crook. However, i’d run an attack on them if they dont send a senior frontbencher like ScoMo in to take over.
What, they have no-one trusted and competent enough who can pick up the slack when the PM is down?? Use it to emphasize the shallowness of the Liberal gene pool and the fact that they got nuthing but tarnished old Mal.
Another good point about the #FakeTradie is he’s wearing a dangling bracelet while sitting next to a circular saw (implying he uses it).
Typical Tory approach to work safety.
Well, poss, obviously the Greens are really, really lousy at selling theirs. Perhaps if they tried changing a few of them, they’d have a bit more success.
Just saw that tradie again. He’s afraid of losing his job. Well, the party preferred by his employer pribably wants to replace him with a cheaper 457 Visa holder. And he gets breaks.? He earns enough to invest in property? Well, he can thank trade unions for that.
‘Edi_Mahin
Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:48 pm
Chloe Shorten interviews Bill Shorten, I see she asks all the hard questions. What a self indulgent bit a crap and she is his SECOND wife.’
I bet you are a cousin of the Shady Sheik from Shibbolethville.
Briefly@956,
I am so sorry to hear this, and it is so different to what I heard door knocking in one of the most Green-leaning areas in Australia, where as a representative of Labor, I had suspected I would get spat on.
Nothing could have been further from the truth. As I reported earlier, I was welcomed with open arms, even by Greens voters.
So what is different in Cowan?
So historical precedent suggests it is far more likely Labor will get a lower flow of preferences than the 2013 election and therefore the 2PP worked out using the last election preference flow is actually more than likely being generous towards them. This seems to be at odds with a lot of Labor biased pontificating on here.
Success? Just remind me: out of Labor and Green, whose primary vote does BludgerTrack say has gone backwards since the last election?
If Turnbull can’t man up they would have no choice but to put Abbott forward in his place.
Things move quick on the interwebs.
Fake Tradie now has his own Twitter account.
https://twitter.com/realfaketradie
Kevin
Exceptions are when there is optional preferential voting. the last Qld election DID see both the ALP go up and the preference share also go up.
Lee
‘Tax dodging corporates? Mmmmmmm. Well Lets try name and shame..
You do realise that this is Greens policy? And that the Greens supported naming and shaming fewer than Labor wanted to?
roger bottomley @ #648 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 6:41 pm
It will help the G’s campaign against Labor.
Well I inflicted damage on myself and hunted down this tradie ad to see if it really was that bad. It is and then some. I am trying not to laugh. Seriously.
Tom.
Hilarious!
Fake Tradie @realfaketradie 16m16 minutes ago
Look lads. I’m just a knock around bloke who likes a beer, a punt and a diversified stock portfolio. Go easy! #FakeTradie
#FakeTradie now the No. 1 trend in Australia on Twitter.
I reckon the ad will be pulled before midnight.
Edi Mahin
Would you describe you politics as clerico-authoritarian?
I am finding it hard to get a handle on where you are coming from.
poss
And that’s your definition of success?? I would have thought actually having policies implemented in the real world was a tad more important, but hey, I live in the real world.
Dan Gulberry #1013 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:13 pm
A very good point you do not wear jewelry or lose fitting clothes near machinery.
School breaking the law? Whaaat? It has no money. Or gets no money. Teachers often use their own time and money. I even donated a computer. This story is typical. Even with newish Gillard teaching space. This is the result of neoliberal liblab education policy….and we know better than those Finnish communists….
There are now THREE fake trader twitter accounts
https://twitter.com/FakeTradie
https://twitter.com/realfaketradie
https://twitter.com/fake_tradie
Edi_Mahin
Sorry. I should have included Deuteronomy 22:20:
You have symptoms suggestive of irony deficiency…also of having early iron-age morals.
The FakeTradie reminds me a bit of “Joe the Plumber” who figured, to no great benefit for the Republicans, during the 2008 US presidential election. It shouldn’t be too hard to find out who the FakeTradie really is.
You mean like revealing tax-dodging companies and Senate voting reform?
edi_mahin @ #1018 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:15 pm
Historical precedent suggests the most likely change in preference flows is small. It has been worth less than half a point 2PP at 10 of the last 12 elections.
The polls have varing views on this. ReachTEL has about a point of difference, Morgan very little lately, and Ipsos virtually none (although it would be expected to show some given its high Green vote and use of batched 2013 preferences). Also, in 2004 all the polls doing respondent preferences expected a shift and there wasn’t one.
I think there could be a modest shift because of NXT. The rest of the argument for a shift is totally unconvincing to me.
Maybe we aren’t getting Newspoll tonight.
Douglas and Milko,
My view is there is only one on person fit to rule Australia and I long for his return to the earth to become king. Until then I find elections quite interesting but I don’t care who wins, Labor, Liberal, Green, NXT, any of them will do but none of them will be any good.
KB. Isn’t the problem with this election is that the Others vote in 2013 had a lot of PUP. That vote has dissipated and now we have a new lot including NXT. I would have thought some analysis of the views of Others in Reachtel and other polls to try and correlate with Labor and LNP views might be helpful but just using a figure for Others from 2013 seems a bit of a guess.
president of the solipsist society @ #980 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:59 pm
Entirely predictable response from a commenter whose schtick appears to be devising ever more vinegary put-downs of Labor supporters.
Potssy, I am mortally wounded and laid so low by your derision I don’t know if I will ever be able to get up again!
; )
‘I am finding it hard to get a handle on where you are coming from.’
Who cares?
Thank you Kevin for the clarification, but it still stands that Labor hopeful thinking is unlikely to happen.
zoomster @ #939 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 9:40 pm
I kind of think that the candidate the Nats put out seems to be that they intend to attract the knobhead votes.
douglas and milko @ #1017 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:15 pm
Poverty.
High male adult unemployment.
High rents and poor housing.
High crime rates.
Single mothers trapped, unable to work, unable to cope, filled with sorrow.
Fear. Lots of fear.
Blokes in their 20’3 and 30’s, who I’d never met before, eyes welling up, stewing with repressed grief, letting Labor’s red-hat know how bad they feel.
We really have to broaden the scope and the deepen the reach of our social and economic policies.
An even more predictable response from a commenter whose schtick appears to be to keep digging.
Hillsong?
Plymouth Bretheren?
Some sordid sect or other.
Adrian but you do not care.
edi_mahin @ #1038 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:22 pm
Marvin the Martian?
I do.
LOL, Cat, he would have more worlds experience than any of the other candidates.