Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.

bludgertrack-2016-06-03

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 … 24 25 26 … 33

  1. Labor has given itself a time frame.

    In the second last week of the campaign it will release full coatings for all,it’s policies. It will release full revenue and savings measures to offset the policy costs.

    It will also release full four year and ten year projections for the budget and a timeframe for return to surplus.

    All policy costs and revenue savings measures will be fully audited by the PBO.

    So, labor has just on two weeks to announce its policy and perhaps savings measures. The Libs will jump and scream and demand it all now and accuse labor of being economic vandals.

    What do the libsdo when labor pulls the rug out from under them in two weeks time ? When will the Libs release the budget impact of its policy announcements ?

    Things will be interesting.

    Cheers.

  4. And further to my post on the apartment boom in Melbourne. Construction companies are currently making record profits

  6. Diogenes
    Damned naive of you to say that in our crappy economy people “elect” to be precariously employed casuals with no job security, no paid leave, and no stability of income.

  7. Mrs BK is booked on the 6:50 pm flight out of Canberra today. We have just got the fourth advice of delay. Now it’s due to depart at 9:05 pm. Won’t be long before we hit an Adelaide curfew problem.

  10. Is there a possibility that Labor have asked the PBO to work out the 10 year projections for the LNP budget as a comparison ?

  11. MTBW
    It’s Mrs BK that’s in Canberra. And yes, she is staying indoors at our son’s home.
    I certainly won’t be setting off on the hour long trip to Adelaide Airport until I know the plane has taken off.

  12. The federal government never faces a financial constraint when buying real resources that are for sale in its currency. We need to counter the economic illiteracy in our culture. The federal government is not revenue-constrained like a state or local government, a household, or a firm.

  14. Davidwh
    Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 11:32 am
    Hi Darn I agree up to a point. I do think it’s legitimate to question Labor over how they will pay for their policies. Personally I struggle to see how they can deliver on all they have promised without putting the budget even more deeply into deficit.

    Good to see you David,
    I agree that the ALP need to be on top of this, but I am yet to see spending that outstrips saving measures (including tax cuts they wont proceed with) that they have already outlined. I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up with a modestly better budget position when we get to add up both party’s commitments.

  21. NickDRalston: NSW SES’s Mark Morrow: “The residents of Sydney have been good…but we need people to consider spending the day inside watching a movie.”

  24. guytaur

    ‘From comments made by Bandt yesterday challenging Labor to join Greens in not giving preferences to the Liberals I assume those choices have been made.’

    Unlikely. Most local campaigns wait until all the candidates are declared – about a fortnight out from the election date – before allocating preferences, because until then you simply don’t know what the options are.

  25. Vogon Poet
    Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 12:05 pm
    Is there a possibility that Labor have asked the PBO to work out the 10 year projections for the LNP budget as a comparison ?

    There are time bombs in the company tax roll-out, and it will take a while for negative gearing to be grandfathered, so I think it would be a reasonable argument to make.

  26. PPSmythe: journo “Eliza” says to @billshortenmp “did you just work it out on the back of an envelope?”

    What a #dumbass

    #auspol #ausvotes

  27. guytaur @ #1189 Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Also RDN like him or hate him made a great point today about increasing debt. Have separate accounts for infrastructure (I think the ALP calls this Infrastructure Australia) and go into increased debt for that at low interest rates meaning the productivity pay off will be greater than in the past when interest rates were high.
    Its a point not made enough with the surplus fetish of the LNP and Labor responding to that.
    I assume the Greens can make this point because no matter what they do the MSM will just call them reckless on the economy

    You mean like a “Current Account” and “Capital Account”?
    Already exists.

  29. zoomster

    I think its more unlikely that Bandt is that stupid than what you say. Greens locals may have decided earlier than you think

  30. TheKouk: Will Newspoll be positive for Labor? Betting flows this morning – Labor in from $3.80 to $3.40: Coalition out from $1.25 to $1.30 #ausvotes

  35. Victoria

    I don’t know. However I think its not going to be good for the LNP. I expect it to reflect the trend recorded in Reachtel.

    However that just means MOE so it could be anything from 53 to Labor to 51 to LNP.

  36. Lizzie
    Sunday, June 5, 2016 at 12:25 pm
    What a #dumbass

    I’d say a nasty little smartarrse.

    I hope Shorten replied with “What a rude question”.

  37. guytaur

    Well, how can they do that? Yes, they can decide to run open tickets, but if they opt for HTVs they need to know who’s actually running.

    As for di Natale, I’m sorry, but he’s already got a bit of a record when it comes to being untrustworthy. He is incorrect about the way Greens HTVs are decided; he was incorrect when he said he had documentation around the employment of his au pairs; he hammers other MPs for making the same mistakes he himself has made in the past. A number of his family members have been employed by the Vic Greens – if he was in the Labor party, he would be accused of nepotism.

    And if he’s not lying, he’s appallingly ignorant.

  38. oh please such hyperbole.

    The chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, Jennifer Westacott, says she is “gobsmacked” by Labor’s election campaign, describing it as anti-business and dangerous.

    Labor opposes the Turnbull government’s plan to reduce the business tax rate to 25% over the next 10 years, saying it is unaffordable and not in the interests of the country to make a $50b giveaway to the top end of town.

    “It’s gobsmacking, it’s very dangerous … for our reputation and it’s dangerous to set us on the course that we are not going to improve our competitiveness,” Westacott told Sky News on Sunday.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/05/election-2016-business-council-of-australia-accuses-labor-of-dangerous-attacks-on-economy

  39. zoomster

    I have based my comments on Bandt’s challenge to the Labor party yesterday. Thats going out on a limb and you have to be incredibly stupid to do so if you can be accused of giving preferences to the Liberals yourself as you claim Labor are doing so.

    Thats what I am basing my conclusions on. I don’t think Bandt is that stupid no matter what you think of the Greens

  48. VP

    That would be Eliza Borrello, ABC journo.

    He should have asked her if she’d even written her question down so she could review it before asking?

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 … 24 25 26 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *