Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50

A new poll finds Wyatt Roy’s Queensland seat of Longman going down to the wire, while Labor goes up nationally in Ipsos and down in ReachTEL.

Three poll results this evening, two national, one local:

• The latest fortnightly campaign Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor breaking out to a 51-49 lead, reversing the result from the last poll. On the primary vote, Labor is up two on the primary vote to 36%, the Coalition is down one to 42%, and the Greens are down one to 13%. Labor is credited with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated as well as previous election preferences, the former having been 50-50 in the previous poll. Fifty-five per cent of respondents nonetheless expect the Coalition to win, with only 22% opting for Labor. The poll interrupts a recent steadying trend in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, finding him down three on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 42%. However, his lead as preferred prime minister is little changed, shifting from 47-30 to 49-31. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 41% and 47%. The live interview phone poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1359.

• The weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network is at 50-50 after Labor shot out to a 52-48 lead last week, though primary votes suggest most of the movement is down to rounding. This poll has the Coalition on 41.5% (up 0.4%), Labor on 34.9% (down 1.6%), the Greens on 10.1% (up 0.5%) and the Nick Xenophon Team on 5.0% (up 0.7%). No personal approval ratings at this stage, but Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister edges up from 54.9-45.1 to 55.6-44.4. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2414.

• There is also a ReachTEL result from Wyatt Roy’s seat of Longman, and this too is at 50-50, suggesting a hefty swing of 7%. Forced preference primary vote results are 42.5% for Roy, 35.9% for Labor candidate Susan Lamb, 7.4% for the Greens and 3.7% for the Nick Xenophon Team. Roy records personal ratings of 36.2% favourable, 27.9% neutral and 28.1% unfavourable. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 836.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with both sets of national results, plus the state breakdowns from Ipsos. As has been the case since mid-April, there is nothing to separate the parties on two-party preferred. There’s a fair bit of movement at the state level though, thanks to a noisy set of Ipsos breakdowns that credit the Coalition with very little support in Victoria and Western Australia. This leaves them down one in both states on the seat projection, while gaining two in Queensland and one in New South Wales (they have also lost one in the territories, because I’ve junked my poll tracking there as unreliable and plugged in the national swing instead). Ipsos’s personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull are his weakest from the pollster to date, and they have accordingly had a sizeable impact on the leadership trend.

bludgertrack-2016-06-03

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,603 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor; ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 26 of 33
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  2. MTBW I’m trying to post more often but life keeps getting in the way. My wife is going through some health issues that is taking priority at present.

  5. Eliza Borello has featured more often on ABC news in recent months. Perhaps she’s getting over-confident. After all, pollies are only there to receive gotchas.

  7. Confessions
    Not looking good at all but there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
    Funny we had no Autumn and now it looks like Winter is catching up on it.
    Climate change is certainly happening.

  11. The weather event was not as bad as predicted where I live ( gold coast hinterland). 166mm rain over 48 hours ( enough to fill my water tanks to their full 50,000l ), wind died off by lunchtime yesterday.A few trees down and a couple of power lines, nothing major. I’ve noticed that the BOM maritime reports consistently over estimate wind speeds, and suspect their land based forecasts are predicted on worst case scenarios.

  15. The weather on election day will differ throughout Australia.

    The effect of weather will be reduced by early voting.

  16. Davidwh
    Sorry to hear about your wife I hope all works out for her she has a very good man on her side.
    You take care of her and yourself!

  17. Re: Green preferences. I tip open tickets in most electorates, or “put the the coalition last”. That’s in the gift of the local branches. I can’t imagine any branch directing prefs to the Libs. That would like turkeys voting for Christmas.

  22. Thanks everyone and thank you for the offer DTT. My wife’s issues are not life threatening but debilitating. She is going through treatment so hopefully will improve soon I hope:

  23. We’re having a winter election.

    If the weather’s bad, who will it suit?

    Interesting question. Although I suspect, with compulsory voting, bad weather has much less of an effect than in systems where people can opt to not go out and vote (which tends to favour the conservative side of politics.)

    I guess whatever fits the “let’s get this over with, so we can get back to our warm, dry homes” mindset.

    Honestly though, I think it’s probably a very small effect at best. Of course, this also just covers people who don’t vote early or by post.

  26. Best wishes to your wife David.
    The weather here is wild. We have lost power. 1500 homes in Redfern, Waterloo and Zetland. Should be back on in a few hours apparently.

  28. What happened to the main reason for this DD election. The ABCC legislation.Not a word, not a question from the lightheaded MSM,no opinion columns.Apparently according to Turnbot this is the biggest issue facing the country today.

  30. Bemused

    If you MUST paraphrase my comments, please use your brains and get it accurate. You actually suggest that I said that Greens own certain issues which is in fact the DIRECT opposite to what I have posted or implied. I think I talked of overlap and Venn diagrams which you will understand implies shared ideas does it not.

    I have pointed out that Greens and the ALP have shared and very similar views on all matters economic and invovling economic equite and government service. This is hardly news. I think it was fairly obvious 6 years ago when Adam Bandt was elected that this was their direction and I am quite sure much of their economic policy is directly derived from Prof John Quiggin. Certainly views of debt are. I do not think John is a Greens member but he does advise them I think from time to time. I will concede that the Greens of 2016 have obviously moved to carve out a greater profile on these economic issues and that wheras once they may have been silent on these issues, they now have probably deliberately a positiom that resembles or is indeed practically identical to that of Labor. I might also say (and this was raised on Insiders this morning) that the ALP has taken a few steps to the left on economic policy (eg the company tax stuff and the highest marginal rate) so that the ALP and green economic policy are essentially the same.

    On Social issues eg SSM, the ALP has taken a lot of steps towards the Greens position. It would be churlish of you to deny that issues of gay rights were for a long time the perogative of the Greens at least in terms of a high public profile. On this issue the ALP has taken a significant step towards “progressive” policy, narrowing the distiction between the two parties. The Greens are seeking to widen the gap between the two parties once again by opening up the debate on euthanasia and also abortion (still an issue here in Qld). Given some extremely nasty pro-life stuff distributed by Family First in letterboxes around my way, the abortion issue is having something of an impact – no idea if positive or negative. And before you rant on about my having a position etc, you cannot because I never post my views on these topics or if I do it is in such a way as to minimise conflict.

    On “green” issues as might be predicted the Greens have a much larger wish list and are much less contrained by the jobs versus environment debate. Well hardly a surprise. This is their primary issue and it would be wacky if the ALP or the Libs were to have a more pro environmental protection on any such issues. It may well happen some day, but not this year. Now of bloody course there is overlap with Labor. Probably 30% of ALP members (and 10% of Liberals) would share a similar world view on the environ ment as do Greens. It is reasonable to say however that the Greens (especially the forest protection variety) have long taken the leadership on these issues.

    However and it is a big however, there are three areas of public policy where there are distinct differences between the Greens and the ALP, at least in terms of their PUBLIC policies, if less so in the views of members. The first relates to AS, which obviously is a sensitive issue within the ALP. The be kind to AS voice has been silenced this campaign within the ALP. Bemused please do not attempt to statw my views here because I side with neither party.

    Foreign policy is probably a significant difference between the ALP and Greens where the extent of overlap even in the views of members is actually quite small. Oddly enough it is possible that the Greens would have greater overlap with NXT or even Katter on issues such as the FTAs.

    Finally there is all the National security stuff. Here I think is the biggest difference between the ALP and Greens at least in this election. It is not getting much attention but it is the area where I do not see much ALP/Green overlap in the Venn diagram.

  34. AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious · 56m56 minutes ago

    The coalition want to know how the ALP will find the money for all their policies. Simple. Takeaway LNP cabcharge cards #auspol #ausvotes

  36. Apart from Bluey’s daily contribution, I’ve started scrolling past any posts longer than about 3 or 4 paragraphs … I spend most of my life either writing or reading and my time is too precious to be reading repeated magnum opuses, I’m afraid.

  37. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 3h3 hours ago

    Shows you how bad the polling in Eden-Monaro is – the government just threw $50 million in pork at the Barton Highway.

  38. I see SKY multiview prefers showing Bolt reruns over and over instead of replaying Shorten’s presser. Same yesterday.

    I suspect they’re hoping their few viewers miss out on any good news from ALP to attempt to keep them ignorant. Sadly for them … have fingers, will tweet!

  40. It is particularly hard on the scrolling finger when someone copies the whole of a long post in order to answer it in one line.

  41. Lizzie

    in pork at the Barton Highway

    It’s needed it for a very long while. I head out about 250klms from Cbr to S-W NSW very often off major Hwys. That 80klms or so is the most dangerous bit out and back.

  42. When the owner of the newsagent opposite Peter Hendy’s office says he has never seen him in 3 years, you’d think no amount of pork will help in Eden Monaro.

  44. Jenauthor:

    Yes I agree about lengthy posts. Unless someone is citing text from elsewhere, or it’s Bluey or BB or on a topic that’s interesting, I too scroll by long comments.

  46. Another poll late tonight- got the popcorn and thermals ready along with a rope in case its a hanger – 51 -49 again?

  47. When the owner of the newsagent opposite Peter Hendy’s office says he has never seen him in 3 years,

    Wow that’s pretty damning. Even Rick Wilson has made an effort to be seen all over his electorate the past 3 years.

  48. I have friends who are on low ground just north of Coffs … am worried they’re in big trouble right now.

    Anyone feel that freak weather events are becoming more frequent? If even a small part of it is because our abuse of the planet, we really need to do something instead of fight with each other about it!

  49. I’m in Reid. Never seen Laundy once … until the other day when I walked past him and a group of suited toffs. Resisted the temptation to say something snide … but it took a great deal of effort on my part!

  50. Much as I would love to believe that Wentworth poll is accurate, I have to take it with the same enormous grain of salt that I do with every seat-specific poll. Remember those polls leading up to the 2013 election that predicted Rudd, Swan and Bowen would all lose their seats?

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