Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll tells a familiar tale, with the two-party vote unchanged over four successive polls, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal decline levelling off, and Bill Shorten continuing to rise.

The latest Newspoll for The Australian is the fourth successive result from the pollster showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 36% (down one) and Greens 11% (steady). Leadership ratings echo other pollsters in finding Malcolm Turnbull levelling off after a steep decline in the early months of the year, with approval steady at 38% and disapproval up one to 50%, and Bill Shorten continuing to improve, with approval up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-27 to 46-31. Expectations of a Coalition in have diminished considerably since the question was last asked in March, with 44% now favouring a Coalition win (down 11%) and 33% favouring Labor (up eight). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1709.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,704 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Why would the results from private party polling differ significantly from public non-party polling?

    Do they ask different questions?

  4. vic,

    The Libs have had dead cats and eggs.
    I’d like them to be really creative with a pineapple.

  5. Sky News Australia
    28m28 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Credlin: Head to head polls don’t concern people inside the campaign head quarters we look at the trend #ausvotes #pmlive

  7. Just Me

    Why would the results from private party polling differ significantly from public non-party polling?

    Do they ask different questions?

    Ya get what ya pay for. In the last UK election the polls that had the headlines were ones paid for by the newspapers. After the election it came out that polls done by both Labour and the Tories had shown the result was done and dusted months before the election. Read an article about the discrepancy between the published polls and what actually happened and the consensus was the meeja polls were conducted with an agenda in mind.

  9. frednk @ #1449 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 7:46 pm


    Douglas and Milko
    Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 7:37 pm
    …
    I wish I knew what to say. Yes, we need to call them out – because sure as eggs the Greens will use the undercover ETS as a reason to support the Liberals. On the other hand, they are doing a great job of shutting down sensible discussion of policy on the premier political discussion blog in this country.

    I think this latest dead cat is worse than that. In this country the mutilation of women in back yards is history. Both the Liberal and Labor are quietly dealing with the right wing nut jobs that want to see it return. It is not part of the political discourse in this country. The Greens want to put an end to that for political gain. It is a bloody disgrace.

    I have skin in this game. My Mother-In-Law was a close friend of Dr Bertram Wainer and his wife and used to pick up women from the backyard abortionist and take them to her home and sit with them to make sure they were okay, or get medical help for them if they needed it. Then she would take them home when they were okay and make excuses for them to their husbands if they were suspicious and not on side. She was also a contact person for these women in the first instance.

    Not only that but she developed the first ‘Do It Yourself Divorce Kit’ for women in Australia. Among other things. Like being the first woman illustrator employed by Fairfax Newspapers.

    An amazing woman who talked the talk, walked the walk, campaigned, cajoled legislators and worked tirelessly to get NSW at the forefront of changes to Womens Reproductive Health.

    And she was a member of the Labor Party.

    So for the pusillanimous Greens to come onto this blog today and act all high and mighty about Abortion Rights and attempt to denigrate the supporters of the Labor Party here and the Labor Party itself, as not having done enough! Well. I wonder how many of them have been called out in the middle of the night by a distraught husband who has found his wife bleeding to death in the toilet as she tried to procure an abortion for herself in the middle of the night, with a coat hanger, while he was sleeping? Because the family, prior to widely-available contraception, couldn’t cope financially with another child. My Mother-In-Law has.

    I bet, Dr Richard Di Natale hasn’t even performed an abortion. Yet he professes to tell us what we should do about it. And to tell the Labor Party that they aren’t doing enough!

    At least the Religious Conservatives use their faith as the basis of their attacks on Labor when it comes to the issue of abortion. The Greens just use hypocrisy, because what have they ever achieved when it comes to Womens Reproductive Rights? And slimy sanctimony that it isn’t enough, after Labor have done the hard yards over decades in the face of stiff resistance from the Conservatives, to achieve what we have today.

    The Greens are beneath contempt.

    But then I already knew that. This only confirms it.

  10. Diogenes, just caught up with your 6.20 pm. Of course, you would know that this makes “Predator” the only action film (so far) to feature two future US State Governors.

    Arnie’s “Get to the chopper!” is rightly famous but Jesse Ventura’s “I ain’t got time to bleed” is fairly epic too.

  13. c@t

    Appreciate you sharing this on the blog.

    And this latest crap from the Greens is definitely beneath it contempt. They should be ashamed

  15. A lot of internal polling is qualitative and not just quantitative.
    That is they do group sessions and hear what people are actually saying.
    It weeds out those who might say Turnbull is doing a great job because he is stuffing up and they intend to vote Labor.

    This is from where you get slogans like “stop the boats”, black hole etc. that pollies like to run with. It’s what is being said in the focus groups. So the parties use that to frame their media responses.

  17. Primrose Riordan
    39m39 minutes ago
    Primrose Riordan ‏@primroseriordan
    .@latingle:”over-egging the case, gov has destroyed its own authority to critique Labor’s # later in the campaign

  20. Rhombat
    Training? Sammie. yeah right. Sammie spits at training. He will not be brainwashed, moulded, turned into a canine robot, Sammie glories in being a ratbag.

  21. Mr Mundine said Labor had no credibility when it claimed to be the party for Aboriginal people.

    Yes they do. They never pre-selected Warren Mundine for the Senate, a winnable House of Reps seat, or even an unwinnable one!

    They did choose Pat Dodson, Linda Burney and Nova Peris. Plus the better Wyatt alternative, in State politics in WA, Shadow Treasurer, Ben Wyatt. 🙂

  22. Some may be interested in this. Edited version of an email I have received:

    “Death over Dinner” is an organisation in America started by Michael Hebb to encourage people to hold dinner parties to discuss important matters that are otherwise difficult to discuss, including end of life issues. The ABC is discussing these issues on Lateline tomorrow night, May 25, at 10:30pm by medium of such a dinner party filmed last Sunday night.

    One of the participants in the dinner was the author of an article in The Age last year which was commented on here, I think by BK, and maybe by others. The article related to his father’s death.

  23. Fess, agreed. The ultimate ” insiders” spinning their wares without putting their arse on the line… everyone is right in hindsight. (God I hate posting on a tablet)

  25. C@tmomma

    Thanks for that personal note. It really makes you understand just how despicable the modern Green party really is. I used to have some respect for them as an environmental party. No longer.

  26. confessions @ #1569 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:06 pm

    C@t:
    Well said! And plus one from me for sharing your personal story.

    Thank you. 🙂

    dtt is also in my bad books for casting nasturtiums in my direction too(at least I think I was one of the ‘anti Green Laborites’ she was referring to). I just wanted to prove that anti abortion is the last thing I am.

  27. I saw one of those terrorist ads on television tonight and was wondering if is should report something I find particularly suspicious.

    There is this lady (hmmm) who I see in the papers quite a lot, anyway she has this ‘important’ job in the government and gets to read all this secret stuff. Recently it has come to my attention that she is showing this secret stuff to her ‘manfriend’ and he doesn’t have the necessary security clearance.

    Do you think it is something that the security people would be interested in.

    I’m just being alert and not alarmed.

  28. Can a black hole have a black hole? It did today

    The maths and geometry of the Morrison / Corrman position on stacked stellar phenomenon will take Steven Hawking to unravel i reckon.

    and RHWombat…very well done!

  29. Ok…I just got back from phonebanking for Anne Aly in Cowan – what’s this I’m reading about the Greens re: abortion? I know that they want to fully legalize it, but could someone give me the filler to go with the headline?

  30. player one @ #1576 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    C@tmomma
    Thanks for that personal note. It really makes you understand just how despicable the modern Green party really is. I used to have some respect for them as an environmental party. No longer.

    Player One,
    The Greens don’t know what fighting for what you believe in really means. They think it is just plonking yourself up a tree, or symbolically chaining yourself to something, and then calling the media.

  31. Re-reading what I just wrote: By “fully legalize”, I mean “institute Commonwealth law on the subject, rather than a patchwork of State laws”.

  32. Puff, yes I understand the value of focus groups for marketing, but internal polling always comes with an agenda. I never trust such “leaks”.

  33. HaveAChat

    Me thinks you should report this to national security without delay!!
    Be alert and alarmed. Perhaps you could also mention that this woman and her manfriend have been spending too much time in the sun getting overcooked!!

  37. Question

    The thing about the UK’s internal polling, from both parties, was that results were not revealed until after the election.

  38. matt @ #1582 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    Re-reading what I just wrote: By “fully legalize”, I mean “institute Commonwealth law on the subject, rather than a patchwork of State laws”.

    Not an expert, but I think someone posted earlier that the Commonwealth has no power in this area … in which case the Green’s are just grandstanding.

  40. poroti @ #1588 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    Question
    The thing about the UK’s internal polling, from both parties, was that results were not revealed until after the election.

    I think “internal polling” is when you ask the members of your own party who they would vote for. The problem for the LNP is that even their “internal polling” shows them losing!

  42. C@t:

    In my view DTT is a hand-wringing hysteric. Never an issue goes by without her flying off the handle and overstating its importance or relevance, however much the public evidence undermines her hysteria. Think ebola as a recent issue for one.

  43. Henny McPenny, the highly engaged Liberal party chook, worries that the ‘spendometer’ is a license for media to finally scrutinise the Abbott/Greens deal made on Dec 3 2013 to scrap the debt limit

  44. P1:
    [Not an expert, but I think someone posted earlier that the Commonwealth has no power in this area … in which case the Green’s are just grandstanding.]
    Yes and no. Lack of explicit power has never stopped Canberra from tying State grant monies to desired policy outcomes before.

  45. Oh and standing on the street with a political placard waving at passing traffic as a more accurate measure of polling. I mean, seriously!

  46. You see, I think where The Greens’ assertion that Abortion be legalised through the federal parliament comes unstuck as a concept is where it applies to the Hospitals that religious institutions own. And I think this was pointed out last time the issue was broached.

    As the Commonwealth provides the funding for all hospitals to some degree and they are also covered by the laws in relation to their proper functioning, it therefore becomes a really big problem for them if the Commonwealth also puts abortion into law. That means, as far as I can understand it, that they would be legally obligated to provide it. Which would entirely go against the grain for them. So it has therefor never been enacted.

    Now The Greens might want to force the issue, however I think religious freedom counts for something and works both ways, so that they respect my right to support abortion and I equally support their right to not want to carry them out.

    I believe this is the Labor position as well.

  47. Thanks RH for channelling Doug, there must be something in the sea water causing all of these perceptive sea creatures.
    The response to that press conference today is interesting and we are what 1/3 of the way through ?

  48. question @ #1567 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:05 pm

    Bemused, are you suggesting they pretend to be Reachtel?

    They could engage any of the well known pollsters or a lesser known one.
    They poll for a variety of reasons and one I had recently, an autopoll, deduced from my responses that I was a Labor voter and announced it was a poll for the ALP and invited me to assist the campaign. A bit redundant as I was already involved.

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