Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll tells a familiar tale, with the two-party vote unchanged over four successive polls, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal decline levelling off, and Bill Shorten continuing to rise.

The latest Newspoll for The Australian is the fourth successive result from the pollster showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 36% (down one) and Greens 11% (steady). Leadership ratings echo other pollsters in finding Malcolm Turnbull levelling off after a steep decline in the early months of the year, with approval steady at 38% and disapproval up one to 50%, and Bill Shorten continuing to improve, with approval up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-27 to 46-31. Expectations of a Coalition in have diminished considerably since the question was last asked in March, with 44% now favouring a Coalition win (down 11%) and 33% favouring Labor (up eight). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1709.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,704 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. I suspect almost everyone’s asleep. Even with stuff actually happening this past week my aggregate hasn’t moved meaningfully in six weeks now.

    A few notes on Newspoll records and other trivia:

    * closing of Better PM gap from 49 to 15 is the biggest gain by an Opposition Leader in six months in the history of Newspoll.
    * closing of netsat gap from 69 points to zero is not a record. Keating vs Hewson went from 27 points in Keating’s favour to 50 points in Hewson’s in four months in 1993.
    * Shorten has now recovered 26 netsat points since his low point of -38. The best career recoveries (low point to high point) were 61 points by Peacock in 1984 (old Morgan data) and 30 points by Abbott before last election.

    I will have a new roundup out this week again, probably Tuesday (aiming for one each week until the election now) and in the meantime this has just gone up:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/05/does-new-senate-system-advantage.html
    Does The New Senate System Advantage Pauline Hanson?

  3. Reposting from the last thread:

    work to rule @ #1768 Monday, May 23, 2016 at 12:44 am

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 28m28 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Which party will win the election: L/NP 44 (-11) ALP 33 (+8) #ausvotes
    Perhaps the most interesting shift in newspoll.

    Agreed – great pick-up. That is a big shift well beyond the MOE. Interesting also that the 51/49 lead has held despite the changed expectations. My guess is that most of that swing in this past fortnight will be from the more politically aware as most people are yet to tune in. Not surprising that the loss of confidence in a Libs win has occurred at a higher rate than the gain of confidence in a Labor win.

    Hardcore Labs can see that it is actually very close even if they may be just behind now. Hardcore Libs can see wheels flying off and are increasingly frustrated and disillusioned with Turnbull. Their *bed-wetter* marginal MPs will be very close to panicking if they haven’t already. The trend still seems to be with Labor if only in solidifying its position for now.

  5. Pollies and journos take Newspoll very seriously and it is now very much part of the political narrative in its own right. After the first two weeks of the official campaign it continues to show Labor just leading but with a much increased share of expectation that they will win. Expect debates at BBQ’s or around the water-cooler to start to become a bit more animated.

    Shorten continues to win people over. Turnbull continues to lose support. They are strong trends. Another surge to Labor on TPP would not surprise. Their health policies will take a while to seep through but they should be vote winners. However I’m guessing that the Libs have another kitchen sink or two to try to throw. So far they have been spectacularly incompetent with this, but they might get lucky.

  6. Biggest mistake so far in this campaign by the Libs was to budget such an expensive corporate tax cut as their centrepiece. That is going to be a wind at Labor’s back throughout this campaign. No votes lost in cutting it. Lots of needed and popular policies to be funded by spending it differently. Thank you so much 🙂

  7. norwester @ #6 Monday, May 23, 2016 at 2:34 am

    Biggest mistake so far in this campaign by the Libs was to budget such an expensive corporate tax cut as their centrepiece. That is going to be a wind at Labor’s back throughout this campaign. No votes lost in cutting it. Lots of needed and popular policies to be funded by spending it differently. Thank you so much

    I agree. And the biggest part of this mistake is gifting Labor a humungous war chest to be obtained by simply not going ahead with this measure (except for genuinely small businesses to which Labor has already committed.

  9. Google this.
    election-2016-newspoll-shows-coalition-failing-to-peg-back-alp-lead/news-story
    Read the comments and get a laugh, Like a lot of chicken little’s cry the sky is falling.

  10. Dear Malcolm, a word of advice.

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
    Or, being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;
    …
    If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
    Or walk with kings—nor lose the common touch;
    If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
    If all men count with you, but none too much;
    If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run—
    Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

  11. [
    WarrenPeace
    Monday, May 23, 2016 at 5:30 am

    Google this.
    election-2016-newspoll-shows-coalition-failing-to-peg-back-alp-lead/news-story
    Read the comments and get a laugh, Like a lot of chicken little’s cry the sky is falling.
    ]
    Would have love to have added a comment; thrown a dead chook on the table; but your probable have to subscribe.

  12. Liberals in big trouble in Dunkley. Having chosen an outsider to replace Bruce Billson in what they thought was a safe seat, the Liberals have found themselves outflanked by Labor’s local candidate and grassroots campaign. The response this week has been a massive Liberal blitz of big billboards to try to lift the new candidate’s profile. Local Libs not convinced that advertising will be enough.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-liberalheld-seat-of-dunkley-ripe-for-labor-picking-20160513-gouvbe

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-liberalheld-seat-of-dunkley-ripe-for-labor-picking-20160513-gouvbe

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Despite Telstra’s service status website saying all problems are now resolved mine is not! So sorry lizzie and D&M it’s over to you again.
    Meanwhile I have activated a link to request a callback from Telstra.

    There are some ominous nuances for the Coalition in Newspoll aren’t there.

  14. Like most of us, I have been surprised by the way the Liberals have moved so far from their raison d’etre, so very like the Republicans, the Party of Lincoln, becoming a proto fascist ideology.

    The why is probably the most important question, and I am reading a book called Dark Money, by Jane Mayer, that documents the people behind the takeover of the conservatives by big money, plutocrats.
    Well worth a read

  15. Good morning, BK

    Data from the final moments before EgyptAir flight MS804 crashed into the Mediterranean suggest an “internal explosion” tore through the right side of the aircraft.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/egyptair-crash-internal-blast-tore-right-side-of-jet-pilot-says-20160522-gp0tet.html
    As the march towards LGBTI inclusion and acceptance gains momentum, the push-back is extreme.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/marriage-equality-safe-schools-attacks-part-of-the-plan-to-kill-samesex-marriage-20160519-goyptn.html
    Slain gangland lawyer and Mafia associate Joe Acquaro spent two decades cultivating, and donating to, senior Liberal politicians on behalf of alleged crime figures
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/mafia-advisers-meetings-with-malcolm-turnbull-mps-20160522-gp0slh.html
    In Australia, under-35s are the most likely age group to strongly agree that they would shelter a refugee at home along with the highly educated.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-one-in-five-australians-would-offer-a-refugee-their-spare-room-20160522-gp0v3a.html
    The EU and Australia go to great lengths to explain how such deals respect international and European law. We’re not convinced.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/13/if-europe-turns-its-back-now-the-concept-of-refugee-will-cease-to-exist/
    Vanstone. Shorten would have done himself credit if he had accepted the truth of what Dutton said, as inelegantly as it may have been put.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/easy-for-the-greens-to-promise-compassion-20160521-gp0hj6.html
    A group of 48 aged care advocates are calling for the Coalition and Labor to commit to ending the so-called “aged care lottery” system of at-home care.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/advocates-call-for-end-to-aged-care-lottery-i-want-him-to-enjoy-the-time-hes-got-left-20160522-gp0w2h.html
    Frankston, so often the battleground of Victorian politics, looms as a critical front in the federal election
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-liberalheld-seat-of-dunkley-ripe-for-labor-picking-20160513-gouvbe.html
    An election is nigh but her passengers have other things on their mind.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-most-people-are-just-sick-and-tired-of-the-bs-20160519-goz4yc.html
    The CWA will join a growing list of organisations lobbying in favour of same-sex marriage ahead of a national plebiscite
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/victorian-country-womens-association-votes-to-support-marriage-equality-20160522-gp0zf4.html

  16. The Federal Government should tear up the Regional Forestry Agreements, which exempt native forest logging from national environmental law.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/19/end-special-treatment-logging-industry/
    Meanwhile, unions will on Monday launch a fresh assault on the government’s corporate tax cuts, with TV ads in target marginal seats.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-shorten-defends-1-billion-medicines-promise-against-governments-labor-spendometer-gibes-20160522-gp0tcc.html
    “I’m not going to criticise any individual who’s acted within the rules,” said Di Natale. “But we believe the rules need to be changed
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/election-2016-greens-call-for-overhaul-of-mps-perks-after-tax-deductions-revealed-20160522-gp11mf.html
    The revelations al-Jibouri was operating under the noses of US law enforcement, who enforce the most powerful anti-bribery regime in the world, is a reminder just how difficult it is for policing agencies to detect and stop corruption.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/unaoil-fixer-paid-bribes-under-nose-of-fbi-20160520-gozp54.html
    Ley said: “We will look at the policies after the election and I certainly recognise that, in the medicine space, there are difficult decisions to make
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/22/election-2016-major-parties-clash-over-health-as-nick-xenophon-vows-to-swap-the-votes
    A number of those rejected lay within key Coalition marginal seats.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/22/new-south-wales-council-mergers-have-political-ramifications
    A man who climbed into a lion enclosure, stripped naked and taunted them into attacking him was shot with a tranquiliser dart
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/22/two-zoo-lions-shot-and-killed-after-mauling-suicidal-naked-man
    “We wanted to introduce more of a startup vibe to the company,” says Jim Elliott, Samsung’s vice-president of memory marketing
    http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/may/22/nap-pods-and-rooftop-parks-how-silicon-valley-is-reinventing-the-office
    All existing bans on the sale, use and promotion of tobacco products will also apply to e-cigarettes in Victoria
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/may/21/victoria-to-treat-e-cigarettes-the-same-as-tobacco-products

  17. Lucy Turnbull, his wife of 36 years, walks as his equal in the corporate world, and according to a senior Coalition source is the most influential partner of any Australian PM.
    http://www.theage.com.au/act-news/canberras-top-10-power-couples-revealed-20160519-goze6v.html
    They are the hungry devices costing Australian consumers $860 million a year and resulting in almost 2.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions – and that is when they are not being used.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/standby-energy-consumption-adds-860-million-to-electricity-bills-20160519-gozbny.html
    Scores of old rubbish dumps are littered across the state and there are concerns that toxic substances have leached into soil and waterways around them.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/rubbish-dump-time-bombs–and-there-may-be-one-near-you-20160520-gozo64.html

  18. The jobs n growth mantra has become a joke. Their own budget doesn’t forecast improvements in those areas and is underpinned by a *very optimistic* forecast for the iron ore price. They offer plenty for some of their corporate backers but nothing for most people. Even some of their most hardened backers would probably be better off supporting Labor.

  19. I have just got off the phone with Telstra Tech Support. They are still well and truly in trouble nationally with no indication of when the issues will be resolved.
    They did undertake to advise their management to stop putting BS and misleading messages on their Twitter, Facebook and service status sites. These messages make a bad PR situation even worse.
    They are going to have to do some fancy PR footwork with affected customers once this disaster is over.

  21. BK

    It took about an hour, but I was already prepared, with a Word doc set up to paste into.
    I’m a slow, inaccurate typist, but a quick reader, so I just cut and paste from the articles.

  22. As mentioned the comments in the GG article are interesting, one recurring them is Turnbull’s 53 supporters, the memory of the leadership spill and the margin is strong, a lot of conservatives haven’t gotten over September.
    I may be wrong but in the 2010 election labor supporters (while not necessarily happy with the leadership change) had in comparison were looking forward.

  23. The local school tuck shop ladies could do a better job running Telstra than the mob running it at present.

  25. Lizzie
    Thanks for the dawn patrol and the Kipling.
    Mark Twain and Rudyard Kipling shared a mutual fascination as the following quote references.
    “He is a stranger to me but is a most remarkable man — and I am the other one. Between us, we cover all knowledge; he knows all that can be known, and I know the rest.”’
    I like to think that I also know “all the rest”.
    If the above is correct then the election is over – start shouting now and get ready for the modest “I told you so’s”.

  26. I like the contrast between Shorten in a normal business suit chatting with people, and Turnbull in hi-viz gear sucking at a watermelon.

  27. Morning,

    Thanks Lizzie for your morning roundup – I’ll look forward to reading them during my coffee break later on.

    BK – Sorry to hear about your internet. I used to have similar issues when I was on ADSL2 a couple years ago. Very grateful to be one of the lucky ones with FTTP, which had been mostly drama free.

  28. On the Newspoll – definitely some very interesting (and encouraging) numbers behind the headline figure. I’m getting more confident with each new poll. Hate to be in the government’s position, but they deserve to lose.

  30. From a Philip Hudson article in the GG, as reported in the Guardian live blog:

    Turnbull is desperate for voters to realise they can’t have him as PM if they lodge a protest vote of disappointment because he hasn’t made Australia a gay green republic or they’re peeved with his superannuation hit on the top end in the budget.

    So the Turnbull supporters still haven’t cottoned on to the fact that it is not that he hasn’t delivered on all the expectations of the voters that is the problem; it is that he has not delivered on any and is, every day, acting more and more like Tony Abbott.

  32. Look I think everyone is overeating to this poll.
    Some ABC CPG journalist was telling listeners on 702 breakfast that all the figures apart from the primary numbers were irrelevant.
    2PP was irrelevant because of Clive Palmer or something, and none of the parties were interested in the preferred PM or approval figures. Hell, Robbie even wanted to talk about these figures, but she refused!

    That’s your ABC – always spinning for Mal!

  33. Also from the Guardian blog:

    Scott Morrison has just sent out a statement which says Labor’s housing tax will see the wealthy continuing to negatively-gear existing housing stock while still gaining a “massive” tax advantage over low and middle income earners.

    According to the treasurer, Labor’s negative gearing policy would see the wealthiest investors who earn over $100,000 continue to claim nearly 90% of their net rental losses against their investment income. Yet middle and low income earners only have enough investment income to claim less than one quarter, “essentially locking them out of investment in existing housing,” the statement says.

    It’s a fair criticism until you remember that the Coalition are not promising to do anything about the issue at all. It’s amazing that Morrison thinks he can get away with criticising Labor for doing something, while the Coalition is doing nothing at all!

  34. Well so far so good for me on telstra.

    However i am in the awful position of having not alternative. No one else can provide ADSL2 to my place.

  36. From previous thread because I think the point needs reinforcing that this election ain’t over until Amanda Vanstone sings!

    This is an arm wrestle, to be sure. The indications are good, but that’s all they are. I expect some bloated, mangy dead dogs to be thrown at Labor by the Murdoch mafia in the 6 weeks ahead, Dennis Atkin’s attempted slur on Shorten for having witnessed the papers on the sale of the Seddon house from Kathy and Jeff Jackson to David Feeney being but the beginning I predict.

    I still remember when Latham looked like winning in 2004 and the Murdoch mafia dredged up that woman who was his first wife for a ‘Tell All’ story that was full of vile bile, and his popularity started tanking from that point on. Not to mention ‘The Handshake’.

    No, the Robber Barons are in the middle of raiding the Treasury and I don’t think they want to be disturbed by a Labor victory. They want their $50 Billion in ‘Tax Cuts’ and will fight tooth and nail with everything they’ve got to get it.

    Strap yourself in folks, it’s going to be a wild ride to the finish line as this carnival enters the House of Horrors. Labor Horrors of course. For the Coalition it will be the Tunnel of Love, the Sunny Uplands of Jobs and Growth. Your jobs if your lucky enough to have one, and the growth in their profits.

    Suffice to say, I ain’t predicting no victory for Labor yet. I’m rolling up my sleeves to engage in the arm wrestle.

    And I’m off to the beach this afternoon to door knock.

  38. Morning all

    Lizzie

    Appreciate your work in providing us with today’s dawn patrol!

    And BK

    Sorry to hear that Telstra outages are still ongoing. It is a national issue and am surprised that it is not being reported more widely

  39. Morning all. Sympathy BK and all Telstra customers.

    I wonder if the AFP will raif Liberal party offices over this criminal association?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/mafia-advisers-meetings-with-malcolm-turnbull-mps-20160522-gp0slh.html

    I suspect not. The AFP has no greater task than investigating media leaks that might prove the PM to be a liar. Unless of course the leak was from a government minister to the press about Defence’s next submarine purchase. That is merely national security. Far less critical than the PM’s job security.

  42. Looks like 4 Corners will not be a plus for the Libs, Yabsley admitting he knew of illegal donations is another hand grenade Turnbull has to dodge.

  43. Lizzie

    Thanks for your wonderful efforts of Dawn Patrol. Still looking forward to the return of the master when Telstra remembers its a communications company.

  45. The scandal of electoral rolls with hundreds of thousands of young people missing from them continues. In a close contest,this is probably larger than the margin will be. Registration should be automatic, yet it remains arcane. Worse, both major parties spend too much time appealing to aging boomers, while issues of higher priority to the young like ME are ignored. So the young vote with their feet and stay away. This is why the Joe Bullock types cost Labor so many votes.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-22/thousands-of-young-voters-missing-from-electoral-roll/7435372

  47. Guytaur

    I think with a mood as volatile as this one, the undecided actually are really important, which is why I wish they would publish this figure.

    I do not believe it is safe to just allocate them according to the breakdown of the decideds. Happy to get William and Kevin’s view here. However my gut reaction tells me that if they are undecided they will all tend top move in a block closer to the election.

  48. Socrates

    All my kids received electoral enrolment forms when they turned 17. One set received in mail from the AEC, and around the same time their secondary school provided them with enrolment forms as well. Based on this focus, they all registered at that time

  50. DTT

    Of course. Voters not engaged really yet. All today’s polls tell us is the results of those who have been asked to think about it.

    This is why I think Labor will win outright as it appears as voters engage they are rejecting Turnbull and the LNP

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