Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more

Individual polls continue to record a statistical dead heat on two-party preferred, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate detects a subtle shift in favour of the Coalition since the release of the budget.

First up, the latest dispatches from the front:

• The preference deal with the Greens being pursued by the Victorian Liberals at the behest of the party’s state president, Michael Kroger, is meeting resistance from other branches of the party. Rick Wallace of The Australian today cites unidentified Liberal sources expressing displeasure at the idea, and gets Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz to reiterate that the “very strong view” of his own state division was that the Greens should be put last. The party’s federal director, Tony Nutt, issued a statement yesterday stressing that no decision had been made.

• Labor hit a spot of bother today in the Townsville electorate of Herbert, which it has never quite been able to pick off since it fell to the Liberals in the 1996 landslide. Bill Shorten’s Queensland road trip brought him to the electorate today, but a doorstop he conducted together with the Labor candidate, Cathy O’Toole, was dominated by O’Toole’s involving in a protest at Liberal member Ewen Jones’s electorate office in February pleading for “a more humane policy for refugees”.

• Apropos Dennis Jensen’s announcement he will run as an independent in Tangney, the Australian Parliamentary Library reviews “the electoral fortunes of MPs who left major parties and contested the next election as Independents”, going back to 1949. Out of 17 identified examples, 12 failed to win their seats (several of whom left office under a cloud); three won re-election but were then defeated at the next election subsequently; and another won re-election and then retired at the election subsequently. Only Bob Katter went on to lasting electoral success.

Now to polling. BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest Essential Research, along with state data from Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL. The Coalition is now credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, which is full point better than the pre-budget reading from last week. That translates into a net gain of three since last week on the seat projection, with two gains in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and the Northern Territory balanced by a loss in Queensland. At some point in the not distant future, I’ll start including state-level primary vote breakdowns and two-party results from respondent-allocated trends as well as previous election preferences, but for the time being the display looks like so:

bludgertrack-2016-05-11

Two new polls were released yesterday, and I have a bit left to say about one from the day before:

• Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. The poll also records 20% approval and 29% disapproval of the budget, with 35% opting for neither and 15% for don’t know. Twenty-one per cent felt the budget had made them more confident in the government, compared with 32% for less confident and 35% for makes no difference. However, most of the specific measures were well supported; 69% for internships for the young unemployed versus 14% opposed; 72% for the higher tax on cigarettes, versus 21% against; 62% for capping super tax concessions, versus 21% against; and 50% in favour of company tax cuts, versus 34% against. Opinion was evenly divided on the tax cut for those on more than $80,000, at 43% for and 44% against, and there was a predictable result for “cuts of $1.2 billion to aged care providers”. A bonus survey question provided exclusively to SBS recorded a view that the budget would make it harder for young people looking to buy their first home and gain a higher education, migrant families seeking education jobs, and people saving for their retirement – but there was a relatively good result for “young people trying to find a job”, presumably reflecting the internships scheme. The poll also recorded 48% opposition to bringing asylum seekers from Manus Island to Australia with 30% in support, and 39% holding the view that conditions in detention centres were poor, versus 32% for good.

• The Guardian Australia yesterday published a poll by Lonergan Research showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. It also found only 12% felt they would be better off because of the budget compared with 38% for worse off, and that 29% said it made them more likely to vote for the Coalition compared with 47% for less likely. The poll was automated phone survey of 1841 respondents conducted Friday to Sunday.

• I hadn’t mentioned the budget response results from Newspoll, which are worth a closer look. Among other things, there are breakdowns by income cohort, which you don’t often see in published polling. Those on higher incomes ($100,000 and lower) were more disposed to have an overall favourable view than those on lower incomes ($50,000 or less), but not by a great order of magnitude: 39% good and 22% in the former case, 31% good and 22% bad in the latter. However, bigger disparities were recorded on personal impact, with 11% of low-income earners expecting to be better off and 45% expecting to be worse off, compared with 29% and 27% for higher income earners. There are also interesting differences by age, with the most favourable responses coming from the young and the least favourable from the middle-aged, with the older cohort landing in between. Charts below put all this into the context of the regular post-budget Newspoll questions going back to 1988 (although there’s a slight change this year and that there are no longer neutral as distinct from uncommitted response options), and show the historic relationship between the “own financial position” and “economic impact” questions, with this year’s question identified in red. On pretty much every measure, this was an average response to a budget, although the plus 5% net rating for economic impact compares slightly unfavourably with an average of plus 10.9%. Its also a weaker than usual result for a Coalition budget, which have had historically better results (part of which is to do with the Howard government holding the reins in the pre-GFC boom years).

2016-05-10-budgetresponse

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,527 comments on “Day two: Essential, Lonergan, BludgerTrack and more”

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  1. boerwar @ #1426 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 8:27 pm

    I was at Olympic Park on the day.
    It was not peaceful at all. Protestors were throwing marbles under the hooves of police horses. They chucked hard stuff at the coppers and the horses. They tore down the cyclone fence that was the boundary of the Park. They ran onto the ground, disrupting the game.
    Was I a protestor? Yes.
    Was the copper response out of all proportion? Yes.
    Was I very, very lucky on the day? Yes.
    Some protestors were chucking stuff at the coppers then crawling around the legs of the crowd of protestors, moving to a new spot before popping up and throwing something else at the coppers.
    The coppers had flying wedges where 15 or so coppers would form a solid human phalanx, generally with someone like a League prop forward at the tip.
    At a signal the Wedge would charge into the crowd with a view to catching one of the thrower/crawlers.
    The thing was that we were on a slope and behind the slope there was a steep drop. The Flying Wedges would almost invariably result in dozens of protestor being shoved over the edge and down the drop.
    We were pretty solidly massed so that we could hardly move.
    I recall after one particular charge looking to my right and there was an open space. A wedge had simply pushed a whole section of the crowd over the edge.
    Had the Wedge been one person to its right, I would have been over the edge with my comrades.

    It was certainly noisy, but not violent initially until the police started rioting.
    I saw no-one throwing anything at police or attacking police. TV footage at the time showed clearly who the aggressors were.
    The protesters were chanting, blowing whistles and setting off fireworks. The reason? The game was being broadcast in South Africa and the intention was to make sure the protest was as noisy as possible and heard by the seths.
    The porcine rioters arrested over 300 people, many of whom were beaten and bloodied. Many others were just beaten and bloodied but not arrested.
    I was lucky up to a point, I was merely arrested.

  4. Helen Razer in today’s Crikey on why she won’t be voting Greens:

    This election, as in previous elections, the Greens policy reads very much like the liberal compassionate documents of the World Bank. Which is to say, the party sounds very soothing in its acknowledgement of serious problems, but offers no surprising solutions to these, and seems to believe that it can benchmark its own success.

    The Greens say “inequality is really, really bad” and speak urgently of change. But they provide no real prescription for the big shift they say, and I agree, is needed. The optimistic leftist might choose to believe that this is because they are cleverly concealing their red flesh. This pessimist believes they are honeydew melons: a mild shade of green right through. Even those who came to the party by way of classical Marxism seem to have paled, believing only the most convenient and optimistic bits about an innovative new era of production.

    It’s true that the Greens provide, for some of us, a refreshing enticement. On the issue of offshore processing, for example, it’s tempting for some of us to throw a protest vote their way. But so long as they choose not to disturb our social and economic organisation, there will always be a group as maligned as asylum seekers. Inequality is really, really bad. It’s also inevitable if you don’t take a hammer to its foundation.

    And they don’t. The Greens’ focus is not on constituting our base differently. It’s about reflecting it more favourably. It’s about taking “gendered” toys off shelves, lighting compassionate candles and generally moralising about those who won’t publicly agree that inequality is really, really bad.

    In other words, as we’ve all said many times over the years, it’s all about symbolism, not about effecting real or meaningful change.

  6. pegasus @ #1442 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 8:46 pm

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/10/one-question-xenophon-must-answer/

    There is only one question for Nick Xenophon to answer during the eight-week federal election campaign: if he wakes up on Sunday morning after the election and holds the balance of power in the lower house, will the NXT back Bill Shorten’s Labor or Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals to form government?

    Inane suggestion. Not surprised it is from a Liberal. Always playing the politics, not the policies.

    Xenophon (or anyone else in his position) would simply say that he and his party members will consider the issue, if it arises, once they see what the Australian people have decided.

  7. briefly:

    The last 8 years of Liberal govt in WA has seemed like nothing other than a huge Barnett whinge-fest over GST receipts, and broken promises in terms of much-needed urban infrastructure projects.

    Total fail. They deserve to be kicked to the kerb, and I hope they are come March.

  8. bemused
    ‘It was certainly noisy, but not violent initially until the police started rioting.
    I saw no-one throwing anything at police or attacking police.’
    Sure. The fence just fell down by itself. The crackers going off in the faces of horses was de nada. The marbles just happened to be flying in the air towards police persons. All of which I saw with my own eyes.
    I am not excusing the behaviour of the police. But the notion that they were the sole initiators does not pass the pub test.

  9. Haydn: Re Ryan, thanks for the rsponse. So my recollection was correct.

    I met George Masterman when I arranged for him to be the after dinner speaker at a Sydney Uni alumni dinner some time in the 80’s. He told us about that and several other very questionable cases. I believe he had an ABC series about them at some point. He had some very pointed things to say about our ‘justice’ system, and the ubiquity of police verbals.

    By the way, I like Haydn, I love Bach but I adore Handel. (slow burner)

  10. boerwar

    i think labor is potential mess but with mandate and momentum that might make conherent overdue reforms and be best insurance for rocky economic road ahead … basically after last 3 years they have to win

  11. GG:

    Back in the day Boerwar did a review of the Greens’ policies as they existed on their website. Most of them read like poorly crafted motherhood statements with little substance behind them.

  14. confessions @ #1457 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    briefly:
    The last 8 years of Liberal govt in WA has seemed like nothing other than a huge Barnett whinge-fest over GST receipts, and broken promises in terms of much-needed urban infrastructure projects.
    Total fail. They deserve to be kicked to the kerb, and I hope they are come March.

    Barnett is viscerally disliked. Very few will regret his defeat. In his own way, he is just like Turnbot. He is False Promise. If the voters of WA start to see Turnbot in the same light, they will lose most of their seats ..:)

  15. Bw

    I wonder how very much better RGR might have gone had Bowen been Treasurer rather than Swan.

    To partisan to concentrate on the job then.

    He’s surprised me.

  16. boerwar @ #1458 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    bemused
    ‘It was certainly noisy, but not violent initially until the police started rioting.
    I saw no-one throwing anything at police or attacking police.’
    Sure. The fence just fell down by itself. The crackers going off in the faces of horses was de nada. The marbles just happened to be flying in the air towards police persons. All of which I saw with my own eyes.
    I am not excusing the behaviour of the police. But the notion that they were the sole initiators does not pass the pub test.

    So how many convictions were secured for these heinous acts you saw? Surely indictable offences!
    NONE!
    Just some convictions in the magistrates court for summary offences.
    Amusingly, one protester was convicted for ‘resisting arrest’. Why was he being arrested? For resisting arrest said the police informant. Spot the problem? The magistrate obviously didn’t.

  17. BW Why were the horses there? What possible good could come out of their presence? I was crushed, along with many others, when crammed and repeatedly charged by NSW Police horses, into the entrance of the Bank of NSW building in Martin Place, in an anti Vietnam protest. The rioters in that case were also the police.

  18. Hi there,
    I’m over here in the corner near the loo. I picked up a stomach virus from someone who was home yesterday when I called around doorknocking for our local candidate. 🙁

    I want to say this one thing. Thank you, Helen Razer! She has crystallised the essence of The Greens. They are the New Puritans.

  20. Surely Turnbull must be aware that Shorten has done 25 “Town Hall” meetings answering questions from random strangers this year? Turnbull has done exactly none.

    Tomorrows Meeting will be very interesting, my guess is Malcolm will end up in a mess.

  21. c@tmomma @ #1468 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 9:16 pm

    I’m over here in the corner near the loo. I picked up a stomach virus from someone who was home yesterday when I called around doorknocking for our local candidate.

    Please don’t breathe anywhere near your computer – we don’t want to catch your bug! 🙂

  23. bemused Yabba88
    I am merely reporting that I saw people throwing lit crackers and marbles at police horses and poolicepersons, running onto the ground during play, and tearing down a rather large cyclone fence. There was also a whole lot of violent pushing and shoving by protestors as well as policepersons.
    Protestor activities did not start after the police started a riot. They started because some of the protestors had intended all along for them to start.
    Did the police over react and were some of the police initiators some of the time?
    Yes.
    Did the justice system cover itself in glory?
    No.
    Did lots of us add to our Special Branch files on the day?
    Yes.

  25. Ru,

    Turnbull is already failing the “Good Bloke” test. Putting him in a room of people that want to “relate” to the politicians could be a disaster.

  27. “It is a bit of a pity but Baird is damaging his Mr Squeaky Clean reputation ” [on council forced amalgamations] Not its not – it showshe is just another conservative hack following the current conservative ideology. And trying to look after his conservative mates.
    I have been amazed at some of the posts here today. The Greens will not be an alternative government until ideology gives way to pragmatism. Period. Idealism is useless in adapting to the inevitable changing circumstances we face and useless to me.

  29. rua:

    I’m interested to see how Turnbull fares in the community forum thingy (name escapes me) that News ltd have organised in Sydney.

  30. GG

    Turnbull is already failing the “Good Bloke” test.

    And that’s why the Panama stuff bites.

    It confirms he’s a rich tax avoider.

  31. In the very early years of Monash, at the height of Langer’s glory days (before, I believe he shifted to the financial services industry) it was announced that the premier of the day would arrive at the main oval at 2.30.
    We were ready!
    We were loaded for bear!
    Sure enough thwok, thwok, thwok, a chopper approached the oval at a low altitude at the appointed hour.
    Our brave hearts beat faster. Shouts of wroth, glee and anticipation reached heavenwards.
    The doors opened and those nasty Liberal bastard students threw a humungous amount of crap over us poor wretched of the earth.

  33. Confessions,
    My fault entirely, I guess. The lady said she was ‘contagious’ but I insisted on handing an information card about the candidate to her! I haven’t been ill for yonks and I guess I thought I was bulletproof. 😀

  37. BW I believe that horses and pedestrians do not mix very well. The result can be panic, people trampled, injuries and deaths. I believe that their presence at protest sites is demonstrably dangerous, and certainly does not assist in maintaining order, or calming volatile situations. I suspect that their purpose is actually to inflame the situation, and to get some good photos for the Police Minister of the day.

  38. I think this was a bad day for Turnbull. First you have the panama paper leaks first thing in the morning, then you are challenged by a single mum. On the policy front doubts are raised over $4/hr internships, superannuation changes continue to boil underneath the surface.

    Labor has been suffering from naive/stupid candidates but this could be a blessing in disguise in the case of MUA dude. This could have been much more damaging just before crunch time.

    On the optics side, Shorten is filmed with his wife, exercising, sitting down with kids while campaigning on education. That’s so far on point.

    Turnbull’s campaign is very scripted and encounters are all pre arranged. While that can keep the random encounters down as he found out that’s pre much impossible to avoid altogether.

  40. zoomster @ #1484 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    Really, C@ – kissing people in exchange for their votes really isn’t encouraged.

    I almost kissed a baby yesterday! It was the most gorgeous little thing. Her mum was a Child Care Worker and I didn’t have to work very hard to secure her vote, as you could imagine.

  42. Yabba88
    IMO horses are passé.
    Special purpose police riot control vehicles, including those armed with automatic tear gas guns and water cannon functions are far more effective.
    I felt sorry for the horses during our protest. They suffered some physical damage (marbles under hooves) and emotional stress from all the shouting and the crackers.

  43. GK @ 1488,

    On the optics side, Shorten is filmed with his wife, exercising, sitting down with kids while campaigning on education. That’s so far on point.

    I do think that BillS has to move on from the Education arena soon though. I guess the whole campaign has been scripted and more areas will be opened up down the road but Labor need to show that they are about more than a great Education policy.

  45. CTAr1,

    People are not unknowing that Turnbull is a wealthy man. Many people are totally unconcerned about his personal arrangements.

    The issue at the moment is that he’s finding it difficult to get on terms with the electorate. This is because the Libs have not done the policy work and are out of touch with the community. This is also because Malcolm Turnbull can’t do retail politics.

    I’m no fan of Tony Abbott, but the photo the other day of him giving out dodgers to commuters in the pouring rain reeks of someone standing at the coalface and asking people for their vote and turning up. This is not an image that Turnbull could project.

    I reckon the Libs will be starting to get a few chills atm.

  46. I think Turnbull’s way of campaigning in a different state each day is a bit chaotic. He was in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide in 4 days. I think a regional focus like Shorten would work better.

  47. Paul Kelly got it right.

    Bowen was the pitch perfect alternative TReasurer this week. Credible, realistic and the emphasis on the Triple A rating would not have gone unnoticed in finance circles. It was dare I say Keatingnesque.

  48. GG

    I reckon the Libs will be starting to get a few chills atm.

    I agree. Keeping on, going on, with a feeling of impending doom will be hard work.

  49. If nothing else the Panama papers story has inspired me to dust off my Van Halen collection, perhaps this song can be MT’s new campaign song

    Lyrics for Panama By Van Halen
    Jump back, what’s that sound
    Here she comes, full blast and top down
    Hot shoe, burnin’ down the avenue
    Model citizen zero discipline
    Don’t you know she’s coming home with me?
    You’ll lose her in the turn
    I’ll get her
    Panama, Panama
    Panama, Panama

  50. [It is a bit of a pity but Baird is damaging his Mr Squeaky Clean reputation with the amalgamations. The ones that may not be going ahead are in Liberal/National marginal federal seats.
    Not a good look.]

    Baird has kicked off an almighty stoush with the local governments in Sydneys inner west, by appointing a Lib dictator to run the amalgamation of Marrickville, Leichhardt and Ashfield councils.

    Why would he do this? Because all three councils have been vocally opposing WestConnex, and all three have been holding the firms involved in construction to the letter of the law as they proceed with planning and /enabling works.

    The impression now is that it was starting to get a bit too hard for the NSW Libs to push things through the pesky councils, so they’ve been disbanded and thrown into administration. Lot’s of people are not happy.

    I’m in favour of the amalgamations, but the process to date has been appalling. Have no doubt, the subsequent lack of transparency in local planning decisions that it will inevitably produce is fascistic.

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