Highlights of day one

Reports this morning of a looming preference switch by the Victorian Liberals in favour of the Greens, and a line-ball internal poll in the new Perth seat of Burt.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. One of many questions on the budget records 20% approval overall and 29% disapproval, with 35% for neither and 15% for don’t know. All the others, together with questions on detention centres, can be seen on the full release. We also have a poll today in The Guardian for Lonergan, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1841, which reaches 50-50 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%.

In response to Radio National Drive host Patricia Karvelas’s desire to refer to yesterday as day one of the election campaign, a listener helpfully offered that the actual day of the announcement, Sunday, might be deemed “day zero”. That works for me, so there’s your headline. However you care to number it, here are some highlights:

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Liberal Party internal poll derived from “15-minute interviews with 600 people on April 30 and May 1” recorded a dead heat on two-party preferred in the new electorate of Burt in southern Perth. The report also cites optimism from Liberal insiders about Cowan and Hasluck, where “the advantage of incumbency and strong local campaigns” are expected to make the difference.

• In other internal polling news, Mark Riley of Seven News reported on Thursday that Liberal polling conducted on April 29 showed the party trailing 53.1-46.9 in Eden-Monaro, but leading 50.3-49.7 in Reid, 50.9-49.1 in Banks, 50.2-49.8 in Gilmore, 51.6-48.5 in Bennelong, 51.2-48.8 in Lindsay and 58.8-41.2 in Hughes, with Barnaby Joyce holding a 53.1-46.9 lead over Tony Windsor in New England. The report copped a more than usually vehement response from Liberal pollster Mark Textor, who denied any such polling had been conducted by his own firm, Crosby Textor. Riley said in his report that the polling was “delivered to New South Wales Liberal executives by campaign guru Lynton Crosby yesterday and leaked to Seven News”, to which Textor retorted that Crosby was out of the country. Riley responded that he had “at no stage said it was your polling”, and insisted it had been distributed to prominent members of the party. In his report the following evening, Riley said “Liberal-National director Tony Nutt said it wasn’t commissioned by the party and rejected the numbers”.

• Ellen Whinnett of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals are “on the brink” of a deal in which they will direct preferences to the Greens in Batman and Wills, while the Greens run open tickets in marginal seats in the Melbourne suburbs. The former half of the bargain returns to the Liberals’ usual practice before 2013, but for the Greens to fail to direct preferences in marginal seats is a little more unusual. However, the impact of the former will be far the greater. When the Liberals flipped their preference recommendation in 2013, the Greens’ share of their preferences in the Melbourne electorate slumped from 80.0% to 33.7%. This would have gouged about 10% of Adam Bandt’s two-party vote against Labor, but the improvment of his position on the primary vote was sufficient to exactly cancel it out. In Batman and Wills, the Greens’ share of Liberal preferences in 2013 was 32.6% and 28.7% respectively. If that changed to 80% with no alteration to the primary vote, David Feeney’s 10.6% winning margin over Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who opposes him again this time, would reduce to zero, while Labor would hold on to a 3.5% margin in Wills. By contrast, the Greens running an open ticket appears to reduce Labor’s share of their preferences by only 3%. The Greens vote in Labor’s Victorian targets of Deakin, La Trobe and Corangamite was in each case a fraction above 10%, so the difference is likely to be 0.3% to 0.4%.

• Crikey founder and shareholder activist Stephen Mayne has announced he is running against Kevin Andrews as “a pro-Turnbull, liberal-minded independent” in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies. Andrews is currently embroiled in a branch-stacking scandal that has resulted in the resignation of his electorate officer, Ananija Ananievski, involving elderly Macedonian immigrants who were reportedly unaware of their party membership. In an article in Crikey yesterday (paywalled), Mayne wrote that Georgina Downer, a lawyer, former diplomat and daughter of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, was “hoping Kevin Andrews is removed and she can be slotted in as a last-minute replacement before nominations close on June 1”. Downer was an unsuccessful candidate for the recent preselection to succeed Andrew Robb in the seat of Goldstein, which was won by former Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson.

• Liberal MP Dennis Jensen, who was disendorsed as the party’s candidate for his Perth seat of Tangney in favour of former party state director Ben Morton, announced yesterday he would run in the seat as an independent. He declined to resign from the Liberal Party in doing so, but state director Andrew Cox said yesterday that he had cancelled his membership in announcing his intention to run against an endorsed candidate of the party. Jensen foreshadowed yesterday’s actions in a speech to parliament last week, in which he called Morton “the Liberal branch stackers’ and powerbrokers’ candidate”, criticised the government’s record on tax reform, called for a royal commission into the banks, and spruiked himself as “a candidate who has deep Liberal values, but who will fight for constituents first and foremost; a free thinker who will be their voice in parliament without fear or favour”. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian noted a fortnight ago that running at the election would mean Jensen continued to draw a salary up until the day before the election, which would earn him around $35,000.

• The state council of the Liberal Party in Western Australia determined the order of the double dissolution Senate ticket on the weekend, and delivered a defeat to former Defence Minister David Johnston by relegating him to the highly loseable sixth position on the ticket. The order of the ticket will run Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Dean Smith, Linda Reynolds, Chris Back, David Johnston. All are incumbents, reflecting the party’s consistent success in winning three seats at half-Senate elections, and the difficulty it faces accommodating all of them at a double dissolution election that is more likely to net them only five. Many in the party had hoped that Johnston, who was dumped as Defence Minister in December 2014, would lighten the burden by retiring, but he failed to oblige. Johnston was more gracious in the face of disappointment than some, conceding he was “in the twilight of my career”, and telling the ABC: “The Liberal Party has been very, very good to me and I’ve had 14 years in Parliament which has been a fabulous adventure.” The state council’s decision reportedly ran ran contrary to the recommendation of its four-person selection committee, which proposed that Johnston take fourth place and Back take sixth. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports one of the members of the selection committee, party state president Norman Moore, stormed out of a state executive meeting last week and threatened to resign as it became apparent the recommendation would not be supported, before apologising for what he conceded was a “dummy spit”.

• Mark Coultan of The Australian (paywalled, I’m guessing) reports that the Liberal member for Barton, Nick Varvaris, has finally decided after much prevarication that he will seek re-election in the seat he won from Labor in 2013. Varvaris has been poleaxed by the latest redistribution, which has turned his 0.3% margin into a notional Labor margin of 5.2% by adding territory around Marrickville. Mark Coultan also reports the Liberals are still yet to endorse candidates in the competitive seats of Paterson and Kingsford Smith, but are likely to do so this weekend.

• Jared Owens of The Australian has a useful article (probably paywalled) on the state of the parties’ double dissolution Senate tickets. While many remain to be finalised, Coalition tickets are now set in Victoria (incumbents Mitch Fifield, Scott Ryan, James Paterson and Bridget McKenzie, followed by newcomer Jane Hume, who recently suffered a surprise defeat to Paterson in her bid to fill Michael Ronaldson’s vacancy), Queensland (Ian Macdonald, George Brandis, Matt Canavan, James McGrath, Barry O’Sullivan and Joanna Lindgren, all of whom are incumbents) and South Australia (Simon Birmingham, Cory Bernardi, Anne Ruston, David Fawcett and Sean Edwards, all incumbents). Labor’s ticket in Queensland will be headed by two newcomers in former state MP Murray Watt and former party state secretary Anthony Chisholm, who are repectively of the Left and the Right. Behind them are incumbents Claire Moore and Chris Ketter, with another newcomer in Jane Casey in fifth place.

Stay tuned for the regular Tuesday poll release early this afternoon from Essential Research, which will probably be followed by a bit of a lull after the weekend storm. A full update of BludgerTrack, incorporating the latest state breakdowns, should follow a few hours after.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

797 comments on “Highlights of day one”

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

  1. One thing is for sure. The more time the ALP spend bashing the Greens over the head, rather than focusing on the real game, the happier the Libs will be!

    Very true, which is why the only sitting Greens MHR using campaign finances to fund a poll over alleged HTV changes after Danby’s suggestion (in other words, focusing on a seat Bandt neither holds nor is running for based on a hypothetical, purely for the purpose of creating “Labor Bad” headlines) somewhat concerning.

  3. Morning all,
    Long time lurker, first time poster. Just thought I’d jump in to say that I cautiously share the optimism expressed here by many posters about a Labor victory. Especially going by how badly the Libs have been going the last few months, and the fact that they’ve done absolutely bugger all to deserve a second term (dare I say “Worst Government Ever(?!)”). Anyway, I’ve been following this blog for a long time now and have really enjoyed a lot of the commentary here.

  4. Note the direct quote marks:

    My colleague Lenore Taylor is vox popping the owner of Mitre 10, who in a shock development, wouldn’t mind a tax cut, either to employ another person, or “make more money.”

    From The Guardian Live Election blog.

  6. dayks11 @ #153 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 10:01 am

    Morning all,
    Long time lurker, first time poster. Just thought I’d jump in to say that I cautiously share the optimism expressed here by many posters about a Labor victory. Especially going by how badly the Libs have been going the last few months, and the fact that they’ve done absolutely bugger all to deserve a second term (dare I say “Worst Government Ever(?!)”). Anyway, I’ve been following this blog for a long time now and have really enjoyed a lot of the commentary here.

    Welcome to the Gogglebox of Australian politics! 😀

  8. Bugler

    The ALP have preferenced against the Greens on several occasions. In 2004 of course it resulted in Fielding in the Senate, while in 2013 Danby DID preference against the Greens.

    So Labor cannot really whinge if they get a return in kind. Mind you it is not a strategy i think is wise for the Greens, but Labor cannot go off crying about it.

    I am really not sure if Shorten’s comment was wise. He NEEDS Green preferences and I am not too sure he can count on them, especially if he makes hostile comments.

  9. Murdoch must be really worried – front page of the Telecrap revives Labor boats scare already. By the end of the campaign there’ll be nothing left to scare people with, although I’m sure theyll dredge up something.

  11. Guytaur
    #17 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:07 am

    The answer of course as everyone knows is if a hung parliament happens Labor will grit its teeth and accept power rather than give it to the LNP.

    I certainly hope Labor stay well away from the G’s…from the party that should be renamed the D’s…the Disingenuous Party.

    The D’s are completely untrustworthy. They are one of Labor’s enemies, currently co-operating with the LNP. Labor might decide to run “open tickets” in Senate contests in return or to preference the Liberals in Melbourne. The disingenuous Party should be destroyed. Danby ‘s right. The D’s are pleased to maintain the lie that there is no difference between Labor and Liberal. It’s time Labor started to tell the truth about the D’s. There is no difference between them and the LNP.

  12. Daretotread
    #158 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 10:06 am

    I’d be happy to see Labor preference the LNP in every election, House or Senate, ahead of the Greens at this and every other election. They should be exposed and destroyed.

  13. The ALP have preferenced against the Greens on several occasions.

    Labor and the Coalition made a ‘deal’ and both preferenced against Bandt in 2013.

    Unfortunately for the political duopoly, Bandt’s primary vote cancelled out the effect.

  17. Briefly

    It’s time Labor started to tell the truth about the D’s. There is no difference between them and the LNP.

    I can’t agree with you there. There is a gaping chasm on environmental matters, if nothing else.

  20. GG

    No mention of the Sex Party deal with Labor that seems to have annoyed the Greens in some of their key .target seats.

    Doesn’t annoy me in the slightest. Totally unexpected.

    Labor’s opposition to the senate voting reforms, a complete back flip to its previous support, was a deliberate political strategy to ensure such outcomes.

  21. This Greens thing is annoying but a reality.

    Unfortunately they target seats they think they can win … rather than looking to increase their influence by targeting possible wins in conservative seats (except Higgins). So by trying so hard to win seats away from Labor, they are, in fact, reducing the possibility of influencing policy because they guarantee a conservative majority in the house.

    And that is what really irks me – they should be swapping prefs with labor in seats where their combined effort could topple Libs (and they might pick up seats in the process).

  24. Daretotread
    #147 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 9:53 am

    5. If you are matched more closely to the Greens than Labor then you have some soul searching. You can choose to stay with Labor on the grounds that it is more relevant and has more practical ability to change policies. This is a perfectly reasonable position (It is mine) BUT what you do not have a right to do is to disparage others who make a different descision, or to dismiss the very real differences between the two parties.

    Bollocks. I have every right to disparage those imposters, those poseurs and saboteurs, the Greens. They are Liberals who come in disguise. They represent themselves as left-populists. In fact, they collaborate with the Right. From the standpoint of Labor, the Greens and the Liberals are interchangeable. It is increasingly clear Labor has to defeat them both.

  25. Pegasus
    As a supporter of open tickets, I would welcome any other party having open tickets.

    I agree – I’d link to think that people can and should choose where to direct their preferences, and not be spoon-fed them.

  27. Jenauthor

    Precisely why it irks me.

    It is already a huge task for Labor to regain the seats it needs to form govt. Last thing they need to be doing is fighting for existing Labor seats with the Greens. This from a party who profess to be so progressive and against the LNP agenda

  30. Just got this in one of those jokey emails friends send around:

    Politicians should wear uniforms like Nascar drivers. Then we could see who their sponsors are.

  32. What is it with the tribalism here by some. Many policies are shared/overlap even if they vary in degrees. Depending on which seat I lived in, I have voted for the most socially progressive party/candidate on the issues of the day. My one regret was when I was a newish arrival, I voted for Howard because of his policy on gun control, an issue I still feel strongly about but his election opened a Pandora’s box, just as Abbott did.
    Haven’t seen much emphasis re Turnbull being a Trojan horse for Abbott’s policies …would like to know which of Abbott’s grenades are currently lying dormant.

  33. Victoria,

    Your sense of entitlement is so obvious.

    If all seats were marginal where every politician would have to actually work hard to earn their electorate’s votes, there would be less ‘seat-warmers’.

  34. victoria and jenauthor

    I disagree with you about the Greens targeting seats they can win. To do any thing else is to betray those who vote for them. Suck it up win on your policies.

    The truth is Labor or Green the Grayndler member will not be voting for an LNP government. Therefore thats is not a seat gain to the LNP>

    Total codswallop to say otherwise.

  37. Pegasus

    It has nothing to do with entitlement. Why dont the Greens invest all their energy in taking seats off the LNP? Why the focus on labor held seats?

  38. This headline says everything you need to know about the Lunar Fringe who seek to dominate the Republican Party in the USA (and the Liberal and National Party in Australia):

    2. PRIORITIES
    Cruz Fans Seek GOP Platform on Bathrooms

    That’s a platform on whether Trans people can use a Male or a Female bathroom.
    Sheesh! What do they want? The Gender Police stationed at the doors of every toilet in America!?!

  40. Jenauthor
    #171 Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 10:17 am

    And that is what really irks me – they should be swapping prefs with labor in seats where their combined effort could topple Libs (and they might pick up seats in the process).

    Clearly, the G’s do not seek the election of a Labor Government. They will advantage themselves even if this increases the opportunities for LNP rule. They don’t really wish to prevent LNP rule. What they wish for are opportunities to attack Labor. The G’s are predators. They are not allies of Labor. They are splitters and spongers. They will sell Labor out and they will sell their supporters out any time if this will increase the tactical advantage held by their MPs and Senators.

    We should recall, the Greens really have no reason to exist. They have to invent reasons on an ongoing basis. They do this in part by frustrating Labor and by teaming up with the LNP to defeat Labor.

  41. I would have thought that the coalition’s threat to interfere with the way in which industry based superannuation funds are managed might be a vote winner for labor and hope that the funds campaign against the coalition on this issue. What do other bludgers think?

  44. This morning Adam Bandt repeatedly refused to deny the Greens were negotiating a preference deal with the Victorian Liberals..

    ..even Guytaur knows what that means..

  46. briefly,
    Everything you need to know about The Greens is encapsulated in the fact they have a middle-aged white woman as their spokesperson on Indigenous Affairs. I’m sure her heart is in the right place but the fact they could not, or would not, find an Indigenous Australian to be their spokesperson speaks volumes.

  48. Simon Banks @SimonBanksHB
    What’s going on is that @Greens aren’t telling their supporters what they are really up to @judyfree10 @LiberalAus @AdamBandt

  49. Last night on QandA Adam Bandt raised the possibility of an ALP/Greens coalition.. a proposition many swinging voters consider toxic..

    ..why did he do that?

  50. Adam Bandt will use weasel words and run The Green line that they have not preferenced Liberals above Labor in any seats. Leaving unspoken the consequences of their deal with the Liberals to leave open some tickets in some seats which will benefit the Liberal Party in tight contests with Labor.

Comments Page 4 of 16
1 … 3 4 5 … 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *