UPDATE: Essential Research has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. One of many questions on the budget records 20% approval overall and 29% disapproval, with 35% for neither and 15% for don’t know. All the others, together with questions on detention centres, can be seen on the full release. We also have a poll today in The Guardian for Lonergan, conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1841, which reaches 50-50 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%.
In response to Radio National Drive host Patricia Karvelas’s desire to refer to yesterday as day one of the election campaign, a listener helpfully offered that the actual day of the announcement, Sunday, might be deemed “day zero”. That works for me, so there’s your headline. However you care to number it, here are some highlights:
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Liberal Party internal poll derived from “15-minute interviews with 600 people on April 30 and May 1” recorded a dead heat on two-party preferred in the new electorate of Burt in southern Perth. The report also cites optimism from Liberal insiders about Cowan and Hasluck, where “the advantage of incumbency and strong local campaigns” are expected to make the difference.
• In other internal polling news, Mark Riley of Seven News reported on Thursday that Liberal polling conducted on April 29 showed the party trailing 53.1-46.9 in Eden-Monaro, but leading 50.3-49.7 in Reid, 50.9-49.1 in Banks, 50.2-49.8 in Gilmore, 51.6-48.5 in Bennelong, 51.2-48.8 in Lindsay and 58.8-41.2 in Hughes, with Barnaby Joyce holding a 53.1-46.9 lead over Tony Windsor in New England. The report copped a more than usually vehement response from Liberal pollster Mark Textor, who denied any such polling had been conducted by his own firm, Crosby Textor. Riley said in his report that the polling was “delivered to New South Wales Liberal executives by campaign guru Lynton Crosby yesterday and leaked to Seven News”, to which Textor retorted that Crosby was out of the country. Riley responded that he had “at no stage said it was your polling”, and insisted it had been distributed to prominent members of the party. In his report the following evening, Riley said “Liberal-National director Tony Nutt said it wasn’t commissioned by the party and rejected the numbers”.
• Ellen Whinnett of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals are “on the brink” of a deal in which they will direct preferences to the Greens in Batman and Wills, while the Greens run open tickets in marginal seats in the Melbourne suburbs. The former half of the bargain returns to the Liberals’ usual practice before 2013, but for the Greens to fail to direct preferences in marginal seats is a little more unusual. However, the impact of the former will be far the greater. When the Liberals flipped their preference recommendation in 2013, the Greens’ share of their preferences in the Melbourne electorate slumped from 80.0% to 33.7%. This would have gouged about 10% of Adam Bandt’s two-party vote against Labor, but the improvment of his position on the primary vote was sufficient to exactly cancel it out. In Batman and Wills, the Greens’ share of Liberal preferences in 2013 was 32.6% and 28.7% respectively. If that changed to 80% with no alteration to the primary vote, David Feeney’s 10.6% winning margin over Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who opposes him again this time, would reduce to zero, while Labor would hold on to a 3.5% margin in Wills. By contrast, the Greens running an open ticket appears to reduce Labor’s share of their preferences by only 3%. The Greens vote in Labor’s Victorian targets of Deakin, La Trobe and Corangamite was in each case a fraction above 10%, so the difference is likely to be 0.3% to 0.4%.
• Crikey founder and shareholder activist Stephen Mayne has announced he is running against Kevin Andrews as “a pro-Turnbull, liberal-minded independent” in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies. Andrews is currently embroiled in a branch-stacking scandal that has resulted in the resignation of his electorate officer, Ananija Ananievski, involving elderly Macedonian immigrants who were reportedly unaware of their party membership. In an article in Crikey yesterday (paywalled), Mayne wrote that Georgina Downer, a lawyer, former diplomat and daughter of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, was “hoping Kevin Andrews is removed and she can be slotted in as a last-minute replacement before nominations close on June 1”. Downer was an unsuccessful candidate for the recent preselection to succeed Andrew Robb in the seat of Goldstein, which was won by former Human Rights Commissioner Tim Wilson.
• Liberal MP Dennis Jensen, who was disendorsed as the party’s candidate for his Perth seat of Tangney in favour of former party state director Ben Morton, announced yesterday he would run in the seat as an independent. He declined to resign from the Liberal Party in doing so, but state director Andrew Cox said yesterday that he had cancelled his membership in announcing his intention to run against an endorsed candidate of the party. Jensen foreshadowed yesterday’s actions in a speech to parliament last week, in which he called Morton “the Liberal branch stackers’ and powerbrokers’ candidate”, criticised the government’s record on tax reform, called for a royal commission into the banks, and spruiked himself as “a candidate who has deep Liberal values, but who will fight for constituents first and foremost; a free thinker who will be their voice in parliament without fear or favour”. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian noted a fortnight ago that running at the election would mean Jensen continued to draw a salary up until the day before the election, which would earn him around $35,000.
• The state council of the Liberal Party in Western Australia determined the order of the double dissolution Senate ticket on the weekend, and delivered a defeat to former Defence Minister David Johnston by relegating him to the highly loseable sixth position on the ticket. The order of the ticket will run Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Dean Smith, Linda Reynolds, Chris Back, David Johnston. All are incumbents, reflecting the party’s consistent success in winning three seats at half-Senate elections, and the difficulty it faces accommodating all of them at a double dissolution election that is more likely to net them only five. Many in the party had hoped that Johnston, who was dumped as Defence Minister in December 2014, would lighten the burden by retiring, but he failed to oblige. Johnston was more gracious in the face of disappointment than some, conceding he was “in the twilight of my career”, and telling the ABC: “The Liberal Party has been very, very good to me and I’ve had 14 years in Parliament which has been a fabulous adventure.” The state council’s decision reportedly ran ran contrary to the recommendation of its four-person selection committee, which proposed that Johnston take fourth place and Back take sixth. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports one of the members of the selection committee, party state president Norman Moore, stormed out of a state executive meeting last week and threatened to resign as it became apparent the recommendation would not be supported, before apologising for what he conceded was a “dummy spit”.
• Mark Coultan of The Australian (paywalled, I’m guessing) reports that the Liberal member for Barton, Nick Varvaris, has finally decided after much prevarication that he will seek re-election in the seat he won from Labor in 2013. Varvaris has been poleaxed by the latest redistribution, which has turned his 0.3% margin into a notional Labor margin of 5.2% by adding territory around Marrickville. Mark Coultan also reports the Liberals are still yet to endorse candidates in the competitive seats of Paterson and Kingsford Smith, but are likely to do so this weekend.
• Jared Owens of The Australian has a useful article (probably paywalled) on the state of the parties’ double dissolution Senate tickets. While many remain to be finalised, Coalition tickets are now set in Victoria (incumbents Mitch Fifield, Scott Ryan, James Paterson and Bridget McKenzie, followed by newcomer Jane Hume, who recently suffered a surprise defeat to Paterson in her bid to fill Michael Ronaldson’s vacancy), Queensland (Ian Macdonald, George Brandis, Matt Canavan, James McGrath, Barry O’Sullivan and Joanna Lindgren, all of whom are incumbents) and South Australia (Simon Birmingham, Cory Bernardi, Anne Ruston, David Fawcett and Sean Edwards, all incumbents). Labor’s ticket in Queensland will be headed by two newcomers in former state MP Murray Watt and former party state secretary Anthony Chisholm, who are repectively of the Left and the Right. Behind them are incumbents Claire Moore and Chris Ketter, with another newcomer in Jane Casey in fifth place.
Stay tuned for the regular Tuesday poll release early this afternoon from Essential Research, which will probably be followed by a bit of a lull after the weekend storm. A full update of BludgerTrack, incorporating the latest state breakdowns, should follow a few hours after.
BW
Wrong. The LNP raised it. The Greens just answered questions by the media because the LNP raised it.
BBCr4today: Tax havens “just need to end” says @JeffDSachs.
Listen to the interview: https://t.co/0EPi05N1Ii https://t.co/HiTAv647xl
Shorten interview on24 now
Dave
Yep. Bluey picked this one within two days of the Budget and it has only got far worse.
The PEFO is going to be a mini-disaster for the Liberals, IMO. It is not only the iron ore price it is also the implications for all the other Pollyanna assumptions that are going to become extremely suss.
It is now so bad that Labor can sit back and watch while Morrison and Turnbull try to explain why they are not economic idiots.
But those Onions were lurking….
CTar1
Whats the avatar today ?
Sheffield ?
Di Natale also talk about the “three major parties”; I would describe him as delusional.
Guytaur
Bandt raised it all by himself on Q&A last night.
Now, why did he do that knowing that it would help the Liberals?
So nice of the Queensland LNP to put their only Female and Indigenous Senator down at Position 6 on their Senate ticket, behind 5 White blokes. Not.
Frednk
Di Natale is far from delusional. He is a feral who will do anything, including helping the frackers and the Reef Wreckers, to help himself.
BW
Wrong. It was in answer to a question. You can say what opinion you like you can’t have your own facts.
So the RBA agrees with Labor on negative gearing.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/31557946/negative-gearing-a-risk-to-finacial-stability-says-reserve-bank/
The Liberals are prepared to accept as gospel some industry report predicting doom and gloom if tax breaks are limited, but not the RBA, supposedly an independent body.
C@t:
We’ve often noticed this about the Greens. They can talk the talk but not walk the walk when it comes to diversity among party MPs.
meher baba
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:30 am
meher baba
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:30 am
This reflects another Greens delusion: that preference leakage does not really matter. Just as the Liberals fear preference leakage and exhausted votes from the ALA and the like they just love preference leakage and exhausted votes from the Greens.
The Greens are being typically dishonest about this. They are pretending that they do not know why the Liberals love them.
Guytaur
I watched Q&A. Bandt raised it off his own volition.
Greens & Labor
Bandt was simply telling the truth on Q&A re greater confluence in policy between Labor and Greens than between Liberal and the Green’s implying greater chance of a working coalition.
Seems that a bunch of PBers can’t handle the truth.
C
Yep. The Greens love to hang around with Indigenous people when there is some newsworthy cause but there is no empowerment of Indigenous people amongst Greens MPs.
BW
I watched Q and A. It was in response to a question. Jones was asking the all the panellists except the LNP.
I wish the Greens would realise that anything suggested by Michael Kroger will only benefit the Liberals and nobody else. He is a very dangerous man.
Trog
Why do you think that The Australian featured Bandt’s Coalition so prominently?
Was it to help the Greens? Was it to help Labor? Or was it to help the Liberals?
The answer is self-evident.
So, why are the Greens trying to the help the Liberals?
Nobody is entitled to an uncontested seat, and this includes the illustrious Tanya Plibersek and the egregrious Anthony Albanese. I have no sympathy for politicians who whinge about the indignity of having to compete for their hitherto ultra-safe seats.
The Greens really do think that Michael Kroger is there to stop fracking, help the asylum seekers and to help the Reef.
BW
However the truth is that Q and A response does not matter to the LNP and the Australian they would still attack Labor by saying they vote work with the Greens.
You are doing the LNP work for them by not discussing the RBA and Panama Papers and the like.
The propaganda media have run with this rather than Duncan because they know how damaging Duncan was to the LNP last night. The human face of the Budget cuts.
Nicholas
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:53 am
Strawman. This is about the Greens being honest to themselves and everyone else about their giving a leg up to the Liberals.
Nobody is entitled to an uncontested seat, and this includes the illustrious Tanya Plibersek and the egregrious Anthony Albanese. I have no sympathy for politicians who whinge about the indignity of having to compete for their hitherto ultra-safe seats.
Guytaur
So, why do YOU think The Australian featured a possible coalition between the Greens and Labor?
1. To help the Greens?
2. To help Labor?
3. To help the Liberals?
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 13h13 hours ago
Labor slams late-night $12m Arts funding splurge by Coalition just hours before caretaker mode kicked in
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 13h13 hours ago
Labor slams late-night $12m Arts funding splurge by Coalition just hours before caretaker mode kicked in
Ben Eltham @beneltham · 13h13 hours ago
Labor slams late-night $12m Arts funding splurge by Coalition just hours before caretaker mode kicked in
Ouch. Sorry. I know nozzing.
Boerwar
Evading the truth is not a long term viable proposition – in politics or anywhere else.
Your credibility will be enhanced in the electorate if you concede that not all issues are black and white and simply reduced to slogans.
Dave – If only.
It’s this one (finally got it right):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Gloucester_%2862%29
BW
Leigh commented so he must have been doing campaigning for the LNP as well.
Trog Sorrenson
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:57 am
Trog Sorrenson
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:57 am
So, why do YOU think ‘The Australian’ featured provocative Greens public commentary about a possible coalition between the Greens and Labor?
1. To help the Greens?
2. To help Labor?
3. To help the Liberals?
Guytaur
Leigh was forced to respond to Greens tactical support for the Liberals.
Slogans are less viable as a political strategy when they can be dissected within hours online and in social media. The Australian’s brand of journalism, essentially one of endless slogans, is easily attacked.
Poor old Rupert.
It is difficult to reconcile the Greens’ two positions – claim they want a coalition with Labor and simultaneously do preference deals with the LNP.
Dave – Wrong link. This one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Gloucester_%28D96%29
bw
Bandt was forced to respond because of a question.
citizen
What preference deal. Thats Kroger wedge. Brink of deal not a deal. Greens contradict Kroger statement.
Who to believe Murdoch tabloid quoting Kroger or Greens?
..how will Labor respond to the inevitable demand from interviewers and debate opponents that they declare they will refuse to countenance relying on the Greens
What politicians usually do – don’t answer, stonewall, answer the question they wished they were asked. Say “We’re aiming to win outright”, “We don’t do hypotheticals” ad nauseum.
Boerwar
To help the Liberals – it’s a no brainer.
Then read my last comment.
Saul Eslake demolishing LNP over RBA email leak
Sorry on 24 now
New government will get to appoint a new chief justice to the High Court with French CJ announcing his retirement effective on 29 January 2017 7 weeks shy of his compulsory retirement at age 70.
Whoever wins, I think it will be Susan Keifel ie an existing judge
Just to be perfectly clear, the Greens have every right to help the Liberals if they want to. If the Greens are happy to advance their own political power by helping the Liberals over Labor that is their choice.
What they have no right to at all is the pretence that this is not what they are doing.
When the Greens help the Liberals they have no right to at all is the view that they have no accountability for global warming.
Vanbadam who is a journo for Guardian, voted Greens for years. Now she says no more. Her twitterfeed is responding to Greens supporters etc. She also mentions that she spoke directly to Green reps . Her twitterfeed is worth following
Labor and the Greens have 55 days or whatever to dismantle Coalition policy and counter any arguments. Much safer to stick with the truth, than try and mislead the electorate.
The truth is that there is a greater similarity in policy between Labor and the Greens than between the Coalition and the Greens.
What is the point in trying to deny that?
Twitterfeed
https://mobile.twitter.com/vanbadham
So, we have established beyond doubt that the Greens are helping the Liberals and that they are therefore accountable for the consequences of Liberal Governments.
victoria
Van Badham is running Labor talking points. I asked her to prove a deal between Greens and LNP as alleged by Kroger after saying I think its a wedge.
No response on proof of deal yet.
Thats because its and LNP Murdoch beat up to keep Labor Green war going.
shellbell
Good guess, I’d say.