There was a pre-budget lull in the federal polling storm this week, but the BludgerTrack aggregate has nonetheless had the regularly scheduled Roy Morgan and Essential Research results to play with. Both recorded next to no change on last time, and the changes on all indicators of voting intention have been barely measurable. Despite that, the seat projection has Labor up one in New South Wales, Tasmania and Western Australia (the results in the latter being particularly remarkable at present), but down two on the back of a very small voting intention shift in highly sensitive Queensland. Last week I reported that I was going to start counting Fairfax as a Liberal National Party seat, so today’s announcement by Clive Palmer that he would not be recontesting the seat was very timely. The result is that the Coalition is down one seat on last week rather than two, and “others” is now recorded as four seats rather than five. Nothing new this week in the way of leadership ratings.
Preselection news:
• Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis has had her preselection confirmed for her south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after suggestions she faced a moderate-backed challenge arising from her perceived public criticism of the Baird government over council amalgamations. The Prime Minister had made it known that he did not wish for any move against Sudmalis to proceed, out of concern at factional tensions being stoked ahead of the election. Two state Liberals, Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Bega MP Andrew Constance, are reportedly eyeing the succession to Sudmalis in 2019. You can read a lot more about this electorate in yesterday’s Seat du jour.
• The Liberal Party’s trial preselection plebiscite of party members in Parramatta has been won by Michael Beckwith, development operations manager for Lend Lease. The other candidates were Jean Pierre Abood, a Parramatta councillor; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who ran in 2010; Maroun Draybi, a local solicitor and hardline conservative; and Felicity Finlay, a school teacher. You can view the recent Seat du jour entry on Parramatta here.
• The Liberals have preselected Yvonne Keane, deputy mayor of The Hills Shire and former television presenter, for the western Sydney seat of Greenway. Keane was also a preselection aspirant in 2013, but the numbers were sewn up by the power bloc of Blacktown councillor Jess Diaz on behalf of his son, Jaymes Diaz. Following a disastrous campaign, Diaz suffered a 2.1% swing in favour of Labor incumbent Michelle Rowland in this highly marginal seat. Step this way for today’s Seat du jour entry on the seat.
• The Nationals preselection to replacing the retiring John Cobb in Calare has been won by Andrew Gee, the state member for Orange, ahead of Orange councillor Scott Munro, Wellington councillor Alison Conn and Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway.
• John Hassell, Pingelly grain farmer and CBH Board director, is the Nationals candidate for the regional Western Australian seat of O’Connor, which was won for the party by Tony Crook from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, then lost to Rick Wilson of the Liberals when Crook bowed out after a single term in 2013. Hassell has pledged to serve as an “independent WA National” if elected.
• The Canberra Times reports that the Liberals have endorsed candidates for the two seats in the Australian Capital Territory: Livestock and Bulk Carriers Association director Robert Gunning in Fenner, and lawyer Jessica Adelan-Langford in Canberra.
abcnewsSydney: Badgerys Creek airport ‘point merge’ plan to be scrapped after concern about noise and pollution
https://t.co/WnYHpZYhSf
One more comment. The use of the term “taxpayer’s money” to describe government revenue really annoys me. Taxpayer’s money is what people have in their hands after they’ve paid their taxes.
Actually Nicholas is correct in this instance….the govt is the source of all money….they can make as much as they like……if they didnt make any there would be none in the economy….
The taxation=supply of money and running the country like a household is all a neoclassical economic lie well spread by the media.
Dont fall for it
We live in a country with a fiat currency that floats on international markets and isn’t backed by gold or another country’s currency. That means that all spending by the currency-issuer is done by writing up the bank accounts of the institutions and people it wants to pay. Supply bills are a constitutional requirement to put political accountability on government spending. Supply bills are not a monetary requirement.
guytaur @ #901 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 10:27 am
Polling in Macquarie and Lindsay must be interesting.
corporate misfit
Yeah taxation has nothing to do with funding government spending. All those stories about wasting taxpayer money is such a figment of imagionation
In fact money has no intrinsic value as such…it is merely a formalized IOU that makes it easier to trade.
Dave
“Pretty desperate considering she didn’t land a punch.”
I think Shorten was under prepared for Sales last night.
After thanking Bill for getting to PH studio in record time she proceeded with the questions she wrote out 2 years ago, totally ignoring his budget policy just delivered.
His voice was often unsteady as he struggled with the blind side attack. ( ffs what has mining tax got to do with anything now)
Silly him expecting Leigh to ask questions on the topic of the hour.
Bill won’t make that mistake again
As the initial source of all money is the govt ……unless the public is allowed to print their own money ( I know some people actually attempt this!!)…taxation is the return of money to the govt…
they dont need it returned…they can also just print more…if they wish
Lizzie @ 8:18 …
With regard to that article on Shorten and the “questions to answer” regarding the ALP leadership changes, I note at the end of the article it mentions the author’s links to the show The Killing Season.
What it omits to mention there – but does when you click on the link in her name – is that she had previously worked for Maxine McKew during the time she was Parliamentary Secretary to Prime Minister Rudd.
I wonder why they neglected to mention it where it could be clearly seen? 😉
Corporate misfit
See Zimbabwe
kevin-one-seven @ #900 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 10:26 am
I’m surprised no-one has pointed out that a single rate tax system is one of the IPA’s infamous “75 point plan”, as is reducing the corporate tax rate to 25% for all companies. The ABC journalists are simply pushing the policies of their IPA masters, as is Turnbull.
When will people realize that Abbott and Turnbull have the same policy advisors?
Autocrat
Nor me, but I thought he delivered the budget reply pretty well. He used to sound stilted and too rehearsed. At least the words flowed this time, and the content was impressive.
Guytaur
I apologise if i didnt make myself clear…i think I read a few too many books on economics in my time at uni…govt funded of course!!
Sales’final question exposed the Gallery for all that they are: “Does it worry you that you mightn’t get elected because Malcolm is so much more popular than you?”
1. Popularity of the leader is unimportant. 2PP is.
2. Plenty of unpopular leaders have been elected. Abbott was the most recent. But there are many more.
3. Politics is not a beauty contest, no matter how much the Gallery might want it to be.
4. It was bitchy and akin to mobbing, as in “Nyah-nyah! Nobody likes you Billy!”
I thought Shorten handled the questions, stupid as they were (especially that one, and the mining tax one), with great aplomb. A tax that actually collected revenue was variously referred to as (a) a waste of money and, (b) a failure… so why should anyone trust Labor ever again, ever, ever? Gob-smacking in its crassness.
Corporate misfit
You said Nicholas was right. I pointed out exactly how wrong he is. You can use your economic jargon as much as you like but it does not change reality.
Just ask the Greeks.
political_alert: Independent Senator Nick Xenophon will hold a media conference to discuss shipbuilding contracts at 11:30am, Canberra #auspol
Chinda63
I heard an interview with Ferguson which emphasised the “questions to answer”, too. But as Ferguson is a PB protected entity, I decided not to discuss it.
Guytaur….the greeks are/were not in the same position as australia
They dont have their own currency they have a shared currency. They cannot print extra money if they need to. Australia can.
Corporate_misfit
As long as the government continues to borrow money, then the ratings assigned to us by the various ratings agencies have real meaning – and they are influenced by “neoclassical” things such as inflation rates, taxation rates, deficits vs surpluses etc.
While this remains the case, “neoclassical” economics rulez!
triton @ #913 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 10:39 am
There’s no doubt he’s better than he was, but E.G. Whitlam he isn’t. Like Gough though, he has some policy to work with, the lack of which even the best orator in the world can’t paper over forever.
cascamike: bernie is in mcdowell county this morning to highlight poverty. here’s what he told @NPRinskeep about the visit: https://t.co/8GD4H6IoWT
Sorry wrong tweet. This is what I meant to post,
Tony_Burke: We’ve only ever had one PM who thought a billion dollar business was a small business. https://t.co/UqYGJFE0Pk #auspol #budget2016
“inflation rates, taxation rates, deficits vs surpluses ” are not purely the domain of neoclassical economics.
as for ““neoclassical” economics rulez….so did the dinosaurs…once
To those who aren’t convinced that Shorten is a good rhetorician I have to say you expect way too much of ordinary people. The speech last night was delivered very well – with excellent modulation and timing. That said, he is more at home with a live audience than a camera … as I think most human beings are.
I think Nicholas said government is not about spending money. Well I am sorry but that is precisely what it is about. Government is, at its essence, a method of community welfare (and I don’t mean handouts, I mean doing things for the benefit for the community) by collecting money from everyone and providing the services required for the benefit and smooth running of the community. IT IS NOT A BUSINESS. The best way to describe it is a “not for profit” organisation and it behoves the govt to provide a safety net for the less fortunate.
I get heartily sick of people who think taxes are an impost. Taxes are a bargain struck between the people and those that manage the services on THEIR behalf.
This is why paying out to business/individuals who neither need services or a safety net, beyond the basics, is so damn deplorable.
jenauthor
Well Said!!
People seem to be very concerned about The Donald becoming the republican candidate and possibly the president.
I do not share these concerns. The world had a much worse president with Shrub, and you have to remember that he was not just that bright but had his controllers in Cabinet with him: Rumsfeld and Chenney. As well, he was part of the Repub establishment and could and did work with the Senate and House to bring about some serious disasters.
Trump does not share this, he is not part of the establishment and once installed will not be able to get cooperation from the other branches of government, he has to have it to achieve anything, good or bad. He cannot declare war, that is the prerogative of the Senate. If he tries to bypass the senate or the house he will be impeached, and he knows it. He is there for a good time and will have a party. In this I applaud him, he will have mooned all those that snubbed and sneered him and have the last and biggest laugh of them all.
The bigger thing he will achieve is a halt to the agenda of the Washington consensus and stop the neoliberal juggernaut. What a shame he was not in power at the time when we had the TPP pass, Obama could get this done, but not The Donald, and that is a good thing: allows the world to build barriers against the corporate klepocracy running the USA.
I would rather this than Clinton, paid for by Wall Street and will deliver their agenda.
corporate_misfit @ #924 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 10:52 am
Yes, and they only lasted for about 200 million years. What a bunch of losers!
“Yes, and they only lasted for about 200 million years. What a bunch of losers”
I doubt if human being will be able to last that long.
At this point in time human being has been living in socialised state for around 12000 years. Do you think we will still be here in another 12000 years?
corporate_misfit @ #929 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 11:00 am
Maybe not, but I expect we’ll last longer than your crackpot economic theory!
corporate misfit
Climate change demands socialist state. If we don’t live as a socialist state humanity will not survive
according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinosaur
they lasted for 135 million years….still a good run
I did not say that. I said that federal taxation does not fund federal government spending. The purposes of federal taxation are to control inflation, influence the distribution of wealth and income, and create incentives and disincentives. The federal government isn’t a financially constrained currency user like a state government, a local government, a firm, or a household. The federal government is a currency issuer, which means it can always purchase anything that is available for sale in its currency. The federal government doesn’t need to match its spending with tax revenues, debt, and proceeds of asset sales. The only constraint on the federal government’s spending is the availability of real resources for sale in the Australian dollar.
The member states of the Eurozone are currency users like our state and local governments. The currency issuer of the Eurozone is the European Central Bank, not the governments of the member nations.
P1 ..a simple question.
Where does money come from?
This business about Shorten having to be “Whitlam reborn” before he can aspire to high office is crap.
Whitlam crashed and burned, despite his oratory. Sure, his speech from the steps of Parliament is still replayed, but what good did it do? He lost in a landslide, twice.
I’d rather someone who can deliver a good speech, content rich, with a bit of gee-up to get the punters enthusiastic, than one replete with mansplaining, flourish and condecension, like Turnbull’s speeches are. And did I mention waffle? “Great Communicator” he’s not.
I’d prefer someone who is considered, thoughtful and sincere, much more than a new Messiah full of bluster and slogans, which is what Turnbull is becoming.
Nicholas
[I did not say that. I said that federal taxation does not fund federal government spending]
This sentence is wrong in fact. Taxation was invented as a means to fund government spending.
Nicholas and I are discussing a perfectly valid Modern economic model MMT.
it si the only theory that successfully predicted the GFC
Dovey on Trump
You couldn’t be more wrong.
Democracy in the US is at stake, due to the Republican tacit approval on the Tea Party the US has had 8 years without any government.
The Republicans as a result finished up with 17 idiots as presidential candidates & this they reduced to the 2 worst possible choices Trump or Cruze.
Should Trump win it will be the end of the Republican Party.
Their & Americas best hope is Clinton ( for all her faults ) & a Democrat majority leader the congress & Senate.
This will allow the GOP to clean out the crap & rebuild.
The same scenario applies to the Liberals here.
“Taxation was invented as a means to fund government spending.”
Taxation was invented by various communities around the planet long before governments even existed…to fund communal spending
corporate_misfit @ #934 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 11:03 am
Where did the dinosours come from?
corporate misfit
Its a theory reality trumps theory. Taxes are collected to fund government spending.
You can use all the academic jargon you like but this is fact.
As for creating money economic theory actually says the banks do that not government except by printing money.
The whole basis for our banking system is the theory that banks create money.
I think some of its a crock but can see what they mean when talking opportunity cost
bushfire bill @ #935 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 11:04 am
Lucky nobody said that then.
“The whole basis for our banking system is the theory that banks create money.” If that is a the case then we are screwed.
I always learned that banks multiply money that is deposited with them. It news to me that they run their own printing presses….I’m buying some bank shares today…just think…unlimited profits!!!
Another example of Labor forcing the government’s hand:
From Senate Estimates this morning: the comapny tax cut costing were released as a result of Labor pressure.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-06/turnbulls-corporate-tax-cuts-under-scrutiny-by-treasury/7389426
corporate_misfit @ #937 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 11:06 am
Bah! Nostradamus predicted it long before MMT – http://nostradamus.org/f/index.php?topic=320.0
This whole argument that Trump would be better for progressives because he’d be useless and awful is, well… awful and stupid.
If people want to listen to Reddit conspiracy theories about Clinton, despite not a shred of evidence that she’s ever done anything to warrant the hostility of the hand-wringers, that’s fine. But to throw the United States to the wolves just so the far left can feel self-righteous for a little while longer, is foolish and dangerous in the extreme.
Dovey, it’s anyone’s guess what Trump would do as president. It would be a step into the unknown. And in personality he’s everything you wouldn’t want a president to be. I’m not even sure that other world leaders would have the stomach to treat him like a president. They might not even want to be seen in the same room as Trump. The House of Commons has already debated whether to ban him from the country. Internationally he might be four years of embarrassment for the U.S. No thanks.
Said what, when?
Misfit
Multiply money 😆 Thats just another way of saying money creation,
P1
Thanks for that do you have a contact for Nostradamus?
I will use him for my future investment decisions