Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks

To tide us over through a quiet spot, a closer look at the Australian National University’s latest survey on issues of public concern.

We’re about half-way between the weekly BludgerTrack and when I’m anticipating the next opinion poll, this being the period of pre-budget calm before the storm, and a new thread is wanted. So I’ve decided to hang this one off the latest ANUpoll survey, an exercise conducted by the Australian National University two or three times a year to gauge the public mood on a specific area of public policy, and track the salience of various issues over time. The subject of the latest instalment, which was conducted by phone from a sample of 1200 in February and March, is tax and equity in Australia. Among various findings on tax that would be familiar from those who follow Essential Research, the report also finds support for increased spending on social services at its highest level since the series began in 1987. The report also finds that, in spite of everything, 56% consider the existing system “moderately fair”, on top of another 4% for “very fair”, while 22% rate it “not too fair” and 18% “not at all fair”.

The survey also features regular questions in which respondents are asked to name the first and second most important political problems, out of a list that presently includes 27 options. To make this easier to interpret, I’ve condensed results into various categories, which are hopefully generally self-explanatory (particularly economy/budget, environment and better government – security/external covers wars, terrorism, defence and immigration, while services covers health and education and such). The progress of these results since 2008 is shown in the chart below.

2016-04-30-anupoll

From which a number of points are clearly worth noting. Concern about service provision mounted to giddy heights after the 2014 budget, but promptly returned to normal after Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister. The combined result for the various economic issues is at a low point in the latest survey, having peaked in the years immediately following the global financial crisis. Security/external and crime/society, which are largely conservative concerns, are on an upward trend. “Better government”, I’m guessing, was a popular response among Coalition supporters while Labor was in power, but is not a correspondingly popular choice for Labor voters now it’s the Coalition’s turn.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,251 comments on “Double dissolution election (maybe) minus nine weeks”

  1. [So the subs sunk and didn’t bounce or surface!]

    Oh they’ll bounce evenually, but it’s deep water they are in 🙂

  2. As I posted earlier Bill Shorten was always going to be attacked for his union background. That is just a given.

    It will be a very long and hard campaign and it will get dirty, nothing more sure.

    Just as Turnbull and the coalition will attack Bill Shorten Turnbull will have to be prepared for some action as well.

    Any attack on Shorten has the strong potential to blow back on Turnbull Anyone heard of the Caymans ? Any memories of his past legal involvements ?

    We shall see who has the glass jaw. Shorten has been toughened in the full on campaigning battles within the union movement and has battled the best and is still standing.

    Turnbull is a amateur compared to Bill.

    Long, hard and dirty campaign ahead.

    Cheers.

  3. Surely today’s QT is the end for Scott “Two Days” Morrison. If Beazley got caned for his “Rove” comment, and Latham for the handshake, what does Morrison get?

  4. phoenixRED 2 mins ago
    I have been limited by the specific time an item was posted – but that’s gone on my display now

    **************************************

    Oooops – posting above comment took me back 2 days in time and 20 clicks to get back to right now – I feel like Rod Taylor in the ‘Time Machine’

  5. Well, I was out and caught just a bit of Scummo on the car radio attacking Bill Shorten for allegedly wanting to run the country like a union leader.

    And I asked myself: Would I rather the country be led by a union leader or led by a spiv merchant banker.

    Hint: only one of those professions plunged the world into the biggest recession since the Great Depression. And it wasn’t trade unionism.

  6. Looks like Crikey is making changes again. cccp is non-funtional.

    But the good news is that Avatars are back for everybody.

  7. TPOF 1 min ago
    Well, I was out and caught just a bit of Scummo on the car radio attacking Bill Shorten for allegedly wanting to run the country like a union leader.
    And I asked myself: Would I rather the country be led by a union leader or led by a spiv merchant banker.
    Hint: only one of those professions plunged the world into the biggest recession since the Great Depression. And it wasn’t trade unionism.

    ************************************************
    Give a man a gun and he’ll rob a bank
    Give a man a bank and he’ll rob the world

  8. Oh gawd. Now we’re upside down without any absolute time references but instead “51 min ago”..

    And please.. auto generated back links! That was the one feature that made PB so clumsy to use without all these years.

  9. [
    Shorten may have been verballed by the MSM, but the mere reference of union leader, delegate etc immediately denotes something corrup or bullying in the public eye.
    That’s how it will be reported in the MSM. Of that I have no doubt.
    ]
    In your view. When the boss fires where do people run. When the wages are a mess who do they call?

  10. The way the polls and their trends are looking this budget will almost certainly be a “London or the bush” effort for Turnbull.

  11. People know Shorten is a union official. He’d look a lot worse if he tried to run away from his heritage. This is a non-issue. The big issue is why this government keeps making shorten the issue.

  12. The only way to get to the latest posts is to close poll bludger on your browser, google it and then open it again (as far as I can work out).

  13. I agree though that the blog at the moment leaves a lot to be desired.

    If fixes in beta were going to take this long as bemused has pointed out quite clearly the age dual website is a great idea.

  14. BK – I suspect he’s a shocking drunk who knows Windsor is going to tan his arse.
    The Libs must be doing a lot of polling this week. If I was them I’d be on the bottle too

  15. To skip the newest page, you just need to edit the page number in the address bar and change it to “1”. See sample address below and where it says “comment-page-25” you need to change it to “comment-page-1”

    From this:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/04/30/double-dissolution-election-maybe-minus-nine-weeks/comment-page-25/#comments

    To This:
    From this:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/04/30/double-dissolution-election-maybe-minus-nine-weeks/comment-page-1/#comments

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