BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

It’s close but no cigar for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which projects the Turnbull government grimly hanging on to a parliamentary majority.

As the many polls published before this week’s parliamentary sitting showed no let-up in the Coalition’s deteriorating standing in the polls, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has come as close as close can be to tipping over in Labor’s favour. However, it continues to credit them with a bare parliamentary majority (which can probably be bumped up another notch with the near certainty that Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax will revert to type), owing to the advantage it attributes to sitting members. The boost to Labor adds five to their projected seat total, including three gains in Queensland, two in Western Australia and one in New South Wales, balanced by the loss of one in Tasmania. Note that the Nick Xenophon Team now gets its own entry on the vote totals (although not yet on the graphs), since its primary vote is now being tracked by ReachTEL as well as Roy Morgan. ReachTEL is no longer recording the Palmer United Party, whose support is now statistically insignificant.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new numbers on leadership ratings this week, the effect of which has been to throw things a little out of whack, owing to the gaping difference in the numbers for Malcolm Turnbull. Where Ipsos recorded Turnbull with a diminishing but still positive net approval rating of 13%, Newspoll recorded the reverse (i.e. minus 13%), despite their similar results on voting intention. Since BludgerTrack uses bias adjustments based on each pollsters’ performance relative to all the others, this result alone has shaken up the entire model. With all that said though, all the movements on the leadership ratings were fairly modest.

The familiar BludgerTrack graphs on the sidebar are a casualty of the Crikey redesign that was launched this week, but stay tuned, because there will soon be a module to accommodate them. Here’s a make-do for the time being, below which you can find the latest round of preselection news and what have you.

bludgertrack-2016-04-21b

• The Greens are hawking a ReachTEL poll of 800 respondents in the seat of Melbourne Ports which finds 60% of Labor voters oppose the party directing preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Greens, as Labor member Michael Danby has threatened to do (albeit that he exceeded his brief in doing so). Danby’s threat came amid an increasingly complex situation with respect to preferences in Victoria, as Liberal Party state president Michael Kroger says the party is open to a “loose arrangement” with the Greens, who are “not the nutters they used to be”, which he puts down to the leadership of Victorian Senator Richard di Natale. Kroger’s hope is presumably to lure the Greens into running open tickets in Victorian marginal seats, in return for the Liberals directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor in the inner-city seats of Melbourne, Wills and Batman, contrary to their position in 2013.

• After 22 years as local member, and 29 in parliament altogether when her time as a Senator is taken into account, former Speaker Bronwyn Bishop was defeated in Saturday’s preselection vote in her northern beaches Sydney electorate of Mackellar. The seat will now be contested for the Liberal Party by factional moderate Jason Falinski, owner of a health care equipment business, former adviser to John Hewson and Barry O’Farrell and campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth in 2004. Falinski prevailed over Bishop in the final round by 51 votes to 39, following the exclusion of Walter Villatora – a party activist who has spearheaded a campaign for preselection reforms that are principally favoured by the hard Right, and a close ally of Tony Abbott’s as the president of the Liberal Party’s Warringah branch. The score in the previous round had been Falinski 40, Bishop 37 and Villatora 12, with Villatora’s supporters breaking overwhelmingly in favour of Falinksi in the final round. This reflected the hostility of conservatives towards Bishop over her support for Malcolm Turnbull in the September leadership challenge vote. The currently unpaywalled Crikey has a thorough account of Saturday’s proceedings from a source familiar with the matter.

• Another safe seat Liberal preselection on the weekend, in Philip Ruddock’s seat of Berowra, resulted in an easy victory for Julian Leeser, a former executive director of Liberal-aligned think tank the Menzies Research Centre, and current director of government policy and strategy at the Australian Catholic University. Leeser is of Jewish background, and is said to be aligned with the Centre Right. He won 97 votes in the ballot against 10 for Robert Armitage, a local barrister; four for John Bathgate, a staffer to Christoper Pyne; and three for Nick McGowan, a one-time adviser to former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett.

• Bob Baldwin, the Liberal member for the regional New South Wales seat of Paterson, has announced he will not contest the next election. Baldwin suffered a heavy blow in the redistribution as the seat exchanged conservative rural territory for more populous areas of the Hunter region, turning Baldwin’s 9.8% margin from 2013 into a notional Labor margin of 1.3%. The Michael McGowan of the Maitland Mercury reports preselection nominees are likely to include Newcastle businesswoman Karen Howard and Port Stephens councillor Ken Jordan. Howard performed well as an independent candidate in the Newcastle state by-election of October 2015, and ran for the Liberals in the seat at the state election the following March. However, her tone-deaf attack on a local high school student over his geography project in November might cause some to doubt her judgement.

• After a bumpy ride, Liberal MP Craig Kelly has been confirmed in his preselection for the southern Sydney seat of Macarthur. The conservative Tony Abbott backer had earlier appeared to be under threat from Kent Johns, a powerbroker of the increasingly dominant moderate faction, but Malcolm Turnbull persuaded him to withdraw in February. He remained under challenge from Michael Medway, who ran in Werriwa in 2004 and appears to work in financial services, but Murray Trembath of the St George & Sutherland Shire Leader reports he has now withdrawn.

• The article mentioned in the previous item also relates that Nick Varvaris, who won Barton for the Liberals in 2013 but has now been poleaxed by the redistribution, was “still in discussions with the Liberal Party” as to whether he will recontest the seat, after earlier indications he would spare himself the effort.

• Barrister Andrew Wallace has won the Liberal National Party preselection to succeed Mal Brough in the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher. As the ABC reports it, Wallace “won the preselection ballot convincingly in the first round of voting ahead of five other candidates”.

• The West Australian reports on the headache facing the WA Liberals as they prepare to defend six Senate seats at a double dissolution election that is likely to net them fewer than that, with none of the incumbents intending to retire. It had been hoped that David Johnston, who was dumped as Defence Minister in December 2014, might lighten the load by accepting a diplomatic posting, but he has now confirmed he will run again. The report says the state branch’s protocol should see ministers Mathias Cormann and Michaelia Cash take the top two positions and Johnston take third owing to “seniority”, but that Johnston might be bumped to fourth to make way for Dean Smith, with Linda Reynolds and Chris Back in fourth and fifth.

• The West’s report likewise says that Louise Pratt, who lost her seat from the second position at the state’s 2014 Senate election re-run, is well placed to take the fourth position on the Labor ticket with help from affirmative action, and is even hopeful of bumping Glenn Sterle for a place in the top three. Earlier indications had been that the order of the top end of the ticket would run Sue Lines, Glenn Sterle and Pat Dodson, with the fourth up in the air.

• Duncan McGauchie, a former policy adviser to the then Victorian premier, Ted Baillieu, has prevailed in a field of five to win Liberals preselection to succeed Sharman Stone as the Liberal candidate in the rural Victorian seat of Murray. He faces significant opposition at the election from Damian Drum, Nationals candidate and state upper house member.

• Labor’s candidate for Christopher Pyne’s loseable Adelaide seat of Sturt is Matt Loader, a gay rights activist and (I think) manager at South Australia’s Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure. Hat tip to Chinda in comments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,581 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 68 of 72
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  2. For those who can’t be bothered Google-hacking past the Oz’sa paywall, here’s the Pell story:

    Three former Catholic Church officials have directly challenged evidence from Cardinal George Pell, who claimed to have been “deceived” and made the victim of a “cover-up” over the activities of a paedophile priest.

    The former Melbourne Catholic Education Office officials told the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse today they were in “shock, “disappointed” and “angry” at the Cardinal’s claims, which were “quite wrong”.

    Giving evidence to the commission last month, Cardinal Pell, now a senior Vatican official, accused the Education Office of keeping from him reports of violent and sexual misconduct by the late Peter Searson.

    Father Searson, who sexually abused children, threatened parishioners with a gun and allegedly stabbed a bird to death with a screwdriver, was able to continue working as a priest for years despite repeated complaints about him, the inquiry heard.

    Cardinal Pell told the commission he had been “deceived” about Searson’s activities during late 1980s and early 1990s, when he was a bishop in Melbourne with responsibility for the Doveton parish where the priest worked.

    “I wasn’t adequately briefed … they were covering up,” Cardinal Pell said, accusing the Catholic Education Office of protecting the city’s then archbishop, who had himself been warned about Searson but failed to remove him.

    “I thought it was quite wrong and I think it was very disappointing that he said those things about the Catholic Education Office because I don’t think they were true,” said Monsignor Thomas Doyle, who was the office’s director at the time.

    “I don’t agree with that evidence. I don’t agree that the Catholic Education Office intended to deceive Bishop Pell, so I thought his statement was wrong.”

    In their sworn statements to the commission, both Monsignor Doyle and his former deputy, Peter Annett, explicitly denied that they attempted to deceive Cardinal Pell or withhold information about Searson.

    Both also denied protecting Archbishop Frank Little, as Cardinal Pell had alleged.

    Asked what his immediate reaction was on seeing Cardinal Pell’s evidence, Mr Annett said “I admit some shock that the (Cardinal) could think that the particular incidents in which he referred to inaction on the part of the Catholic Education Office could be so.

    “I was disappointed and perhaps angry but certainly very disappointed,” he said.

    A third former Catholic Education Office official, Allan Dooley, said he “found it difficult that Cardinal Pell came to that conclusion.”

    Mr Dooley’s statement also said he was never instructed, nor attempted, to deceive the Cardinal. Nor did he act to protect the archbishop or to ‘keep a lid’ on the allegations surrounding Searson, as Cardinal Pell had alleged, his statement said.

    Under cross-examination, Monsignor Doyle said that Cardinal Pell did take action to remove Searson after he became Archbishop of Melbourne in 1996.

  3. Apparently Seenodonors is supposed to front up to senate inquiry tomorrow,but last night he called his old school to arrange an workshop to speak to grade 6 kids on the processes of democracy

    So kids, it works like this:
    The really tough kids don’t bother with wanting to be school captain. It’s way too uncool. But they always prefer that the actual school captain does what they want.

    That’s where spineless suckholes like me come in. We go crawling to the tough kids telling em how cool they are and how if we were school captain no doubt a few more opportunities for collection of lunch money could be arranged.

    So once the suckhole has attached itself to the tough kid the tough kids and his gang get the message out to all the other kids that they aren’t to vote for that smart nerd, or the sporty kid for school captain – vote for suckhole or else.

    The tough kids and the suckholes find this a mutually beneficial arrangement. No one cares what the other kids think about it.

    It’s exactly the same in politics except you substitute tough kids for rich kid (and preferably rich with extensive media interests).

  4. The order to end Manus detention was predictable. The next step is not

    On any reading of PNG’s constitution, it is clear that detention without trial of people who were accused of no crime, and who’d been forced to PNG against their will, was illegal.
    And, as the PNG and Australian governments offered no real defence for the regime – save for an almost-laughable attempt to insist the men on Manus were “not in detention” – the supreme court’s decision was the only one it could credibly arrive at.
    Manus Island detention centre must, it ordered, be closed down.
    The unknown is what happens next, and there appears to be few viable options

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/apr/27/the-order-to-end-manus-detention-was-predictable-the-next-step-is-not

  5. There’s no doubt Labor is on top of the policy debate and leading the government a merry dance. The Coalition is all over the shop.

    But the key to their demise will be the state of the budget followed by PEFO.

    Next week will signal the end to whatever credibility they had at managing anything fiscal and I predict their polling will go further south from this point on. Particularly when the MSM collectively jump ship as some seem to be doing already.

  6. Wouldn’t it be grand if a year 6 asked about the democratic principles in play when you just point blank refuse to front up to an inquiry by the chamber that you’ve been elected to?

  7. The prob, question at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/04/21/bludgertrack-50-1-49-9-to-coalition-3/comment-page-67/#comment-2381543 , is that it isn’t the real amount of terrorism that matters. It is the perception of it that can be created. By way of example, there were actually far more deaths from terrorism in Europe in the 1970s and 80s than in the 2000s & 201os, but no-one would believe you without the real figures – see http://www.datagraver.com/case/people-killed-by-terrorism-per-year-in-western-europe-1970-2015 .

    It is the perceptions of fear that politicians and associated media are able to drum up that count, not the level of real danger. Sadly the right has managed to get away with reviving its old ability to turn fear into a political art-form. I suspect that the electorate are getting a little tired of such charades, but you never know.

  9. LOL….

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m1 minute ago

    Fifield’s response to this is: “NBN doesn’t have a spare $29m” and asks for clarity on whether it is FttP.

  10. But the key to their demise will be the state of the budget followed by PEFO.

    I think they will just continue downhill. They might get a bit of a short term sugar hit from the budget, but that will also come with higher Morrison exposure.

  11. Wouldn’t it be grand if a year 6 asked about the democratic principles in play when you just point blank refuse to front up to an inquiry by the chamber that you’ve been elected to?

    So, if Uncle Arfur has been required by the Senate to front the inquiry, and he doesn’t, isn’t that contempt??

  12. Rod Hagen,
    It is the perceptions of fear that politicians and associated media are able to drum up that count, not the level of real danger. Sadly the right has managed to get away with reviving its old ability to turn fear into a political art-form. I suspect that the electorate are getting a little tired of such charades, but you never know.

    No argument from me on that score, but Abbott didn’t seem to get much/enough traction with it. I can’t see Turnbull doing any better, as you mentioned on the previous page, playing Colonel Blimp won’t look good on him.

  14. The best they can hope for from the budget is meh!

    We’ve already seen the commentariat switch from ‘the real game starts with the budget’ to ‘maybe the Libs can get on the front foot after the budget’.

    Everyone can see that Turnbull is running out of time and chances and that he’s done nothing but waste both for six months. The budget is being burdened with expectations it can’t possibly sustain.

    There’s just no magic pixie dust left to throw around to give tax cuts and spending increases and still produce surpluses. A meh! budget will be an achievement for this rabble but with the expectations for so much more that will do nothing to stop the drift. Far more likely is that there will be at least one thing in there that will get enough people angry to make the budget a fail.

    I predicted unequivocally months ago that Shorten would win the next election.

    I’ll make another unequivocal prediction. Shorten’s Budget in Reply will be a cracker and will be latched onto by the MSM as the point that he became ‘electable’ in their narratives.

  15. Labor has, I believe, the opportunity to introduce fiscally prudent measures within their campaign that are rarely afforded an opposition desperate for votes to defeat the incumbent. Even if it means campaigning on new (but fair) taxes. Indeed I think that’s exactly what the voter wants this time round simply because they’re sick of the never ending budget circus. In other words LEAD and a grateful nation will follow. (Remembering of course that debt reduction needs to be part of the framework)

  16. One of the commenters under Blot’s whinge about Nasty Miranda was from some other Jack, who said “Not that Turnbull is such a prize but at least we can put a handbrake on him.” Show how the RWers think. Should be publicised to all swinging voters and those who still have illusions about Malcum leading the “Liberals” to the sane centre.

  17. Yes, you are probably correct. Nevertheless, I reckon we all need to have the “bullshit filter” turned right up to “max +1” when it comes to any “national security” claims from the gov over the next few weeks!

  18. The Essential chappie being interviewed on Sky just now. He says that last week’s was nearly 51/49 and that the 52/48 is a continuation of a trend.

  20. If you look at the support/oppose numbers, the LNP are losers on nearly every one :
    1.Tighten tax exemptions for capital gains tax : 52%/19%
    2.Limit negative gearing: 48%/24%
    3.Reduce superannuation tax concessions for high earners : 60%/22%
    4.Increase tax on cigarettes : 67%/21%
    5.Cut corporate tax : 22%/57%
    6.Cut personal income tax : 63%/19%
    7.Increase funding to health: 83%/7%
    8.Increase funding to education: 80%/10%
    WRT their budget, they’ve ruled out altogether 1,2,7 and 8.
    They might address 3 and 4
    They are on the wrong side of 5
    With 6 they might, but only higher income workers.
    Who thinks the budget is going to save them ?

  22. PNG announce closure of Manus Island Detention Centre and ask Aus gov to make immediate alternative arrangements for the refugees and asylum seekers held there –

    So, from this we know that the Foreign Minister has had another FAIL. Its a bit of an unequivocal…….sod off you lot…..from PNG.

  24. Hmmmmm…..thinking about it. If they have to do something quickly.

    Women, children and families from Nauru into Australia, and NZ would probably take some??
    Single men from Manus (i think its mainly ) to Nauru or Xmas Island??

    Not thats its a “good” solution but leaving people in Manus is now not an option and they have to have some kind of short term immediate fix.

  25. Labor’s negative gearing policy – and more to the point, the Coalition’s reaction to it – was a definitive juncture. Imagine if MT had actually been the man he claimed to be and not gone down the predictable and tiresome road of fear but said instead, hey that’s not a bad idea, we might need to refine it a bit but hey … great to have Labor’s bi-partisan support! Things might be very different. But then again, he’s not really the man he pretends to be, is he.

  26. More expense, caused by Coalition policy.

    Mr O’Neill said many local businesses had invested to expand their operations to support the detention centre, and their businesses will now suffer.

    “These are many small and medium enterprises and their employees who will now be out of work. Our government will work with Australia in order to transition these businesses and workers to new opportunities so that their communities do not suffer.”

    He said negotiations with Australia will focus on when the facility will close and how to manage the settlement of legitimate refugees who want to stay in PNG.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/manus-island-detention-centre-to-close-png-prime-minister-says-following-court-bombshell-20160427-gogbyo.html

  27. GECKO – The amazing thing is that the Libs obviously learnt nothing from the way Turnbull’s popularity started to tank about the time of his first negative gearing prediction of armageddon. As TPOF says, the Liberal Party have given Turnbull no leeway at all. Not one single win he can hold up as a sign he can reform the party. Zip. Which shows they worry a hell of a lot more about pleasing their donors than the voters. Indeed, does anyone think they’d be increasing the ciggies tax if tobacco coys could still donate to political parties?

  28. Taking BW’s statement at 4.36pm re the Essential chap and extrapolating just a bit it seems probable that we are currently just a tad short of the 2007 Ruddslide 2PP election result of 52.7%
    Presuming, hoping, the other polls to come confirm ER’s result.

  30. Vogon Poet @ Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at 4:38 pm

    If you look at the support/oppose numbers, the LNP are losers on nearly every one :
    1.Tighten tax exemptions for capital gains tax : 52%/19%
    2.Limit negative gearing: 48%/24%
    3.Reduce superannuation tax concessions for high earners : 60%/22%
    4.Increase tax on cigarettes : 67%/21%
    5.Cut corporate tax : 22%/57%
    6.Cut personal income tax : 63%/19%
    7.Increase funding to health: 83%/7%
    8.Increase funding to education: 80%/10%
    WRT their budget, they’ve ruled out altogether 1,2,7 and 8.
    They might address 3 and 4
    They are on the wrong side of 5
    With 6 they might, but only higher income workers.
    Who thinks the budget is going to save them ?

    The punters still want personal tax cuts along with higher spending on health and education.
    Disappointing, as that just doesn’t really add up.

  31. bemused

    The punters still want personal tax cuts along with higher spending on health and education.
    Disappointing, as that just doesn’t really add up.

    Many will believe that complete collection from the rich using dodges, and from corporations will make this possible.

  32. K17
    Yep they’re an arrogant lot that fail to learn anything in my view. Your comments also highlight the possibility that the job was more important to MT than his principals… perhaps further confirmation that he is not who he pretends to be, as BB puts it: a friend to everyone in the room.

  33. Bemused @5.08pm
    It doesn’t Bemused, but then again if the question asked was if spending on health/education was increased, would you forgo a tax cut or even pay some more, the answer could be different ( maybe)

  35. Regarding the PNG Supreme Court decision.

    So neither Morrison or Dutton knew this case was in train?

    And did neither Dutton nor Morrison ever ponder that PNG had a Constitution, and that that Constitution might speak to individuals’ rights?

    And have they loaded their respective offices and their respective senior department staff ranks with morons?

    Or is it just a case of morons and their sheep staff “running” the place?

  36. With inflation so low, it’s hard to argue any justification for personal income tax cuts. I don’t think Labor should waste public money on offering income tax cuts when so much money has been stripped out of essential national services and infrastructure spending.

  40. psyclaw

    Apparently our govt knew this outcome was possible. The contingency plan appears to be transferring the asylum seekers to xmas island.

  41. Sohar @ Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at 2:40 pm

    “I will vote against the party I don’t want to lead Australia” – Green voters 38%. What the..

    I don’t see anything suss with that statement. In fact, I find the question odd.

    1) I will vote for the party I want to lead Australia
    2) I will vote against the party I don’t want to lead Australia
    This is pretty much Australia’s preferential voting system.

  42. Boerwar @ Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at 4:36 pm

    The Essential chappie being interviewed on Sky just now. He says that last week’s was nearly 51/49 and that the 52/48 is a continuation of a trend.

    Given that the previous two weeks of Essential reflecting the announcement of the Banking Royal Commission and the desperate, over-eager, attempts by the Coalition – together with the banking industry – to deflect the commission, what will next week’s Essential show us pre-budget but incorporating the new budget objective of tax concessions so that parents can buy their 1 year old an investment property?

    And, again, I don’t see how any government at this point in the electoral cycle and with the current economic and fiscal conditions can come up with a popular budget. Let alone a bunch of ignorant, intellectually lazy, politically incompetent clownshoes like the present mob.

  43. Hunty McHuntface vote early, vote often
    Aussies will get to name a new government Antarctic boat but don’t even THINK of calling it #BoatyMcBoatFace, ok?

  45. psyclaw
    Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at 5:22 pm
    Regarding the PNG Supreme Court decision.
    So neither Morrison or Dutton knew this case was in train?
    And did neither Dutton nor Morrison ever ponder that PNG had a Constitution, and that that Constitution might speak to individuals’ rights?

    Surely Brandis as AG, Bishop as FM and Dutton would have maintained a watch on this court case, given its importance as a key plank of Australian asylum seeker ‘policy’.

    On the other hand…

  46. JimmyDoyle

    Say what you will about the ABC, but they are taking the prospect that Labor will win Government very seriously.

    I’ll bet there is some panic going on in the upper levels of ABC management. I just hope that if the ALP wins, they finally do something about them.

  49. Sky News Australia
    29s29 seconds ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Shadow Immigration Min. @RichardMarlesMP says he would bring a ‘lot to the table’ in Manus negotiations #pmagenda http://snpy.tv/1NSebhd

    2

    Sky News Australia
    2m2 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@RichardMarlesMP says @PeterDuttonMP should negotiate with PNG regarding decision to close Manus Island #pmagenda http://snpy.tv/26tgiDK

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